Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Monday, October 11, 2021

Crehan: 400 GbE port shipments to exceed 10 million this year

Shipments of 400 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) data center switch ports are on track to exceed 10 million this year, more than triple the prior year's shipments, according to an upcoming report from Crehan Research Inc. 

In correlation with this strong 400GbE data center switch ramp, 50Gbps SerDes shipments are surpassing 25Gbps SerDes shipments, to become the mostly widely deployed data center switch SerDes lane speed.

“The 400GbE data center switch transition is well under way, with volumes now starting to move toward the tens of millions in conjunction with broader customer adoption,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Newer applications and architectures such as machine learning and disaggregated computing, on top of existing high-bandwidth drivers including video, machine-to-machine traffic anddata analytics, are driving the need for faster switch speeds with better bandwidth economics.”

These results reflect the data center switch silicon transition from 3.2Tbps to 12.8Tbps and their respective underlying technologies of 25Gbps and 50Gbps SerDes. Crehan’s report further points out that the 50Gbps SerDes transition time of approximately three years is faster than what the 25Gbps SerDes transition was.

"These large deployments of 12.8Tbps data center switches, with underlying 50Gbps SerDes technology, are laying the groundwork for the deployments of next-generation 25.6Tbps data center switches with 100Gbps SerDes technology, which we expect to start ramping next year," Crehan said.

Wednesday, October 6, 2021

Vertical Systems: Gigabit services driving U.S. retail Carrier Ethernet

Gigabit services are the largest and fastest growing source of U.S. retail Carrier Ethernet revenue, according to Vertical Systems Group’s latest ENS (Emerging Networks Service). 

The Ethernet services delivered using 1 Gbps and higher speed ports now contribute more than half (54%) of U.S. Ethernet revenue, and comprise just over one quarter (26%) of ports installed at customer sites.

Solid revenue growth is projected through 2025 for gigabit port capacities, in contrast to revenue erosion for lower speed Ethernet connectivity. 

Vertical’s analysis includes detailed projections for six services across five speed segments. The speed segments are 10+ Gbps, 1 Gbps, 100 Mbps, 10 Mbps, and Sub-10 Mbps. Service segments covered include DIA (Dedicated Internet Access), Ethernet Access to IP/MPLS, EPL (Ethernet Private Lines), EVPL (Ethernet Virtual Private Lines), Metro LAN and WAN VPLS (Wide Area Network Virtual Private LAN Service).

Ethernet Research Highlights

  • Total U.S. Ethernet revenue dipped as a result of COVID-related disruptions and price compression, however the number of Ethernet ports installed at customer sites continued to expand.
  • 1 Gbps is the top speed segment based on Ethernet revenue through 2025.
  • 100 Mbps remains the largest Ethernet speed segment based on customer port installations.
  • EPL is the top Ethernet service segment based on revenue through 2022.
  • DIA has the highest projected CAGRs through 2025 for both ports and revenue. Demand for DIA is boosted by requirements for secure, dedicated connectivity to cloud services and data centers, as well as access links for SD-WAN underlays.
  • Bandwidth utilization for U.S. Ethernet customer ports is climbing at double digit rates. By 2025, gigabit speed services will contribute an estimated 97% of total Ethernet bandwidth.
  • Requirements for gigabit Ethernet services are spurring new fiber buildouts. All of the Ethernet Service Providers ranked on Vertical’s Mid-2021 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD also hold a rank position for fiber provider leadership on the latest U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD.
  • Ethernet price compression continues across every service and speed combination as billed to customers (i.e., average ‘street price’ net of discounts).
  • Challenges to Ethernet market expansion include SD-WAN, wavelength services and dark fiber.

Thursday, September 30, 2021

Dell'Oro: Worldwide telecom capex on track for 5~10% rise

Preliminary readings suggest that worldwide telecom capex — the sum of wireless and wireline telecom investments — increased 3 percent year-over-year in nominal USD terms and remain on track to advance 5 percent to 10 percent in 2021, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

"Even with some decoupling taking place between capex and equipment revenue growth trends in the first half, we expect the relationship to remain significant going forward," said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President with the Dell'Oro Group. "More importantly, healthy end-user fundamental combined with the competitive dynamics and improving carrier revenue trends is spurring operators to ramp investments in multiple technologies and regions," continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the September 2021 3-year Telecom Capex Forecast:

  • Total telecom capex projections have been revised upward—carrier capex is expected to advance at a 3 percent CAGR between 2020 and 2023, underpinned by strong growth in 2021.
  • The upward capex revision is primarily driven by the improved investment outlook in the US wireless market.
  • Even with the elevated 5G BTS baseline in China, total capex remains on track to advance at a double-digit rate in nominal USD terms in 2021, predicated on the assumption that the second half will account for 60 percent to 65 percent of the full-year capex in China.

Wednesday, September 29, 2021

GSMA: Mobile broadband gap for 43% of world's population

Mobile internet usage translates to just over 4 billion connected people,  225 million more compared to 2019, and up from a third of people globally just six years ago, according to GSMA's State of Mobile Internet Connectivity Report 2021.

However, in 2020, 3.4 billion people (43% of the world’s population) lived within the footprint of a mobile broadband network but were not accessing mobile internet services. The GSMA report also notes that low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) now account for almost 93% of the world’s unconnected population and more than 98% of the uncovered population.

“The COVID-19 pandemic made clear the importance of mobile internet access to people’s lives and livelihoods and has accelerated the digital transformation around the world. Mobile  is the primary and often the only way to access the internet in low- and middle-income countries. While more people than ever are now using the mobile internet, some fundamental barriers stop far too many people from using mobile internet. To close this usage gap, all of us – government and industry – need to do more,” says the GSMA’s Chief Regulatory Officer, John Giusti. “In particular, we must address the key barriers to usage of mobile internet services, most notably literacy and digital skills, as well as affordability. Only through targeted and collaborative action can we bridge the digital divide.”

Sunday, September 26, 2021

Dell’Oro: SASE to to hit double-digit billion-dollar revenue by 2025

SASE is expected to hit double-digit billion-dollar revenue by 2025, according to an updated report from Dell'Oro Group.

“As enterprises pivot towards becoming cloud-first and mobile-friendly, they are running into the structural deficiencies of the hub-and-spoke model and need alternatives,” said Mauricio Sanchez, Director at Dell’Oro Group. “The need for more agility, better scalability, and ubiquitous security has driven the vendor community to respond with the convergence of software-defined WAN (SD-WAN) and secure web gateway (SWG) solutions into a new architecture under the SASE umbrella. As a result, enterprises’ interest in SASE is skyrocketing.”

Additional highlights from the SASE advanced research report:

  • The number of SASE technology vendors has grown from a handful to 35.
  • Over the past year, communications service providers have rapidly embraced SASE due to many technology vendor choices, the ease and low risk of deployment, and new revenue potential.
  • Two major SASE implementations types exist in the market, unified and disaggregated. Unified type consists of single-vendor, tightly integrated SASE platforms. Disaggregated type is a multi-vendor or multi-product implementation with less integration than unified. Unified type will grow faster than disaggregated, but not surpass it by total revenue through 2025.

Thursday, September 16, 2021

IDC: Global "Whole Cloud" spending to hit $1.3 Trillion by 2025

 "Whole cloud" spending – total worldwide spending on cloud services, the hardware and software components underpinning the cloud supply chain, and the professional/managed services opportunities around cloud services – will surpass $1.3 trillion by 2025 while sustaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.9%, according to International Data Corporation (IDC).

"In today's digital-first world, business outcomes and innovation are increasingly tied to the ability to develop and use innovative technologies and services anywhere, as quickly as possible. Cloud is the foundation for meeting this need," said Rick Villars, group vice president, Worldwide Research at IDC. "Entire industries want to intelligently leverage data to their advantage and can do so because they have faster access to digital technologies built on a cloud foundation."

IDC's forecast looks at both shared (public) cloud services and dedicated (private) cloud services. These are defined as follows:

  • Shared (Public) cloud services are those shared among unrelated enterprises and/or consumers, open to a largely unrestricted universe of potential users, and designed for a market, not a single enterprise.
  • Dedicated (Private) cloud services are delivered as subscriptions or managed service agreements provided by cloud, colocation, outsourcing, or managed service providers to their enterprise customers.

Shared (Public) Cloud as-a-Service for infrastructure, platforms, and various software offerings continues to be the largest, and fastest increasing, engine of growth for the whole cloud market. Combined spending on shared cloud services – Infrastructure as-a-Service (IaaS), System Infrastructure Software as-a-Service (SISaaS), Platform as-a-Service (PaaS), and Software as-a-Service (SaaS) – will total $385 billion in 2021 and will see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 21.0% through 2025, reaching $809 billion.

Dedicated (Private) Cloud Services, which includes hosted private cloud services and the fast-emerging Dedicated Cloud Infrastructure–as-a-Service (DCIaaS) segment, will grow at a faster CAGR of 31.0%, but from a much smaller revenue base of $5 billion in 2021.

The as-a-Service segments of cloud spending, combining Shared Cloud as-a-Service and Dedicated Cloud as-a-Service, will account for the majority of all cloud spending throughout the forecast, growing from 55.7% in 2021 to 64.1% in 2025. These segments will also see the fastest growth in spending, with a five-year CAGR of 21.3%.

Dell'Oro: Data Center switch demand exceeding supply

Global Data Center Switch revenue were up 7 percent year-over-year in 2Q 2021, marking the second consecutive quarter of revenue growth, according to a recent report from Dell'Oro Group. Arista, Juniper, Star-Net Ruijie outpaced the market and were able to gain revenue share during the quarter.

“It is encouraging to see the robust sales performance being broad-based across all major regions, and customer segments: Cloud Service Providers (SPs), Telco SPs, and Large Enterprises,” said Sameh Boujelbene, Senior Research Director at Dell’Oro Group.

 “Nevertheless, despite these strong results, it is important to note that demand outpaced supply and that sales would have been even stronger had the global semi-conductor industry not been constrained. We expect demand to remain robust in 2H21 but further tightening in the supply chain may hinder market performance,” added Boujelbene.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2021 Ethernet Switch – Data Center Report:

  • H3C climbed to the leading position in China in 2Q 2021
  • Stockpiling behavior from some Cloud SPs resulted in share shifts in the 100 Gbps segment.
  • Interest in 400 Gbps from enterprises and small Cloud SPs is slowing down but major hyperscalers are still on track for accelerated adoption in 2H21.

Sunday, September 12, 2021

IDC: Switching revenues rise 11% while routing dip 0.5% in Q2

The worldwide Ethernet switch market recorded revenues of $7.4 billion in the second quarter of 2021 (2Q21), an increase of 10.8% year over year, while worldwide enterprise and service provider (SP) router market revenues declined 0.5% year over year in 2Q21 to $3.9 billion, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and Worldwide Quarterly Router Tracker.

"IDC witnessed a strong start to 2021 for the global Ethernet switch market, as macroeconomic conditions improved and a growing number of organizations worldwide demonstrated perseverance and digital resilience in the face of the rolling challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic," said Brad Casemore, research vice president, Datacenter and Multicloud Networks at IDC. "Enterprises made notable investments in their campus networks, while hyperscalers and other providers of cloud services continue to drive growth in high-bandwidth datacenter switching."

Highlights from IDC


The Ethernet switch market's annualized growth of 10.8% builds upon the 7.6% growth in the first quarter of 2021. For the first half of the year, Ethernet switch revenues are up 9.3% over 2020. Compared to the second quarter of 2019 – before the COVID-19 pandemic – revenues increased 3.8%.

From a geographic perspective, the 2Q21 Ethernet switch market had strong results across most parts the world. In Asia/Pacific, the People's Republic of China revenues grew 11.6% year over year while Japan's market increased 8.3%. More broadly in the Asia/Pacific region, excluding China and Japan, the market rose 20.5% year over year in the quarter, buoyed by the market in Singapore growing 58.2% annually. In Europe, results were mixed: Western Europe's market rose 23.1% year over year with strength from France, which grew 39.3%. Central and Eastern Europe's market was essentially flat at 0.5% growth with Russia declining 4.8%. In the Middle East & Africa, the market increased 2.6% year over year. Across the Americas, revenues in the United States rose 6.2%, Canada's market fell 1.0%, and Latin America's market increased 8.1% year over year with Mexico rising 15.8% compared to a year earlier.

Overall port shipments increased 28.4%, driven by strength in the non-datacenter portion of the Ethernet switch market. Non-datacenter Ethernet switch revenues grew 17.7% in 2Q21 with port shipments increasing 36.1%. The non-datacenter ethernet switch portion of the market makes up 88.6% of port shipments and 58.5% of total market revenues with the balance of revenues and port shipments in the datacenter portion of the market. In the datacenter segment, revenues rose 2.4% year over year, while port shipments declined 10.6%.

The higher-speed segments of the Ethernet switch market continue to see significant growth, driven by hyperscalers and cloud providers. Market revenues for 200/400 GbE switches grew 132.5% from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2021, with port shipments more than tripling (+206.0%) on a sequential basis. 100GbE revenues increased 15.4% on an annualized basis, while port shipments rose 11.4% year over year. 25/50 GbE revenues increased 25.6% year over year while port shipments rose 1.3%.

Lower-speed switches, a more mature part of the market, saw mixed results. 10GbE port shipments rose 3.1% year over year, but revenue declined 8.4%. 10Gb switches make up 23.4% of the market's total revenue. 1GbE switches increased 33.2% annually in port shipments and 14.4% in revenue. 1GbE accounts for 35.9% of the total Ethernet switch market's revenue. 2.5/5GbE revenue increased 25.3% sequentially from 1Q21 to 2Q21, while port shipments rose 26.6% quarter over quarter.

Router Market

The worldwide enterprise and service provider router market declined 0.5% year over year in 2Q20 with the major service provider segment, which accounts for 76.7% of revenues, falling 0.8% and the enterprise segment increasing 0.4%. From a regional perspective, the combined service provider and enterprise router market increased 15.7% in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan & China). Japan's market increased 4.9% while the People's Republic of China market was down 14.4% year over year. Revenues in Western Europe grew 3.3% year over year, while in Central and Eastern Europe the combined enterprise and service provider market was flat. The Middle East & Africa region grew 4.3%. In the U.S., the enterprise segment was down 4.8%, while service provider revenues increased 7.8%, giving the combined markets a 4.6% increase on an annualized basis. The Latin America market grew 1.0% on an annualized basis and Canada's market increased 2.2% year over year.

Company highlights

  • Cisco finished 2Q21 with a 4.5% increase in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 44.1%. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue grew 2.4% year over year with enterprise router revenue decreasing 9.8% and SP revenues increasing 10.1%. Cisco's combined SP and enterprise router market share stands at 34.2% in the quarter.
  • Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue increased 3.5% on an annualized basis, giving the company market share of 11.1%. The company's combined SP and enterprise router revenue declined 8.5% year over year, giving the company a market share of 33.4%.
  • Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues increase 31.6% in 2Q21, bringing its share of the total market to 7.5%.
  • H3C's Ethernet switch revenue increased 10.6% year over year, giving the company market share of 7.0% in the quarter. In the combined service provider and enterprise routing market, H3C's revenues increased 32.6%, giving the company 2.5% market share.
  • HPE's Ethernet switch revenue increased 46.4% year over year, giving the company a market share of 6.7%.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue increased 23.3% year over year in 2Q21, bringing its Ethernet switch market share to 3.1%. Juniper saw a 3.9% decline in combined enterprise and SP router sales, bringing its market share in the router market to 9.8%.

IDC: Worldwide server market revenue dips 2.5% in Q2

Worldwide server market revenue declined 2.5% year over year to $23.6 billion during the second quarter of 2021 (2Q21), while worldwide server shipments surpassed 3.2 million during the quarter, an increase of just 0.1% over the previous year, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker.

Volume server revenue was up 5.6% to nearly $20.0 billion. Midrange server revenue declined 30.0% to $2.4 billion, and high-end servers declined by 32.7% to $1.3 billion.

"Broadly speaking, server market performance was muted in the second quarter as the market shifted slightly towards single socket server configurations," said Paul Maguranis, senior research analyst, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "While servers purchased directly from ODMs declined year over year, some past backlog recovery within the hyperscale datacenter community contributed to a large jump in this segment when compared to the first quarter of this year."

Overall Server Market Standings, by Company

  • HPE/H3C ended the quarter in a statistical tie with Dell Technologies for the top position in the worldwide server market. The revenue shares for the two companies were 15.7% and 15.6% respectively. 
  • Inspur/Inspur Power Systems ranked third with 9.4% revenue share. 
  • Lenovo was in fourth place while IBM came in at fifth, with 7.0% share and 5.0% share respectively. 
  • The ODM Direct group of vendors accounted for 26.7% of total server revenue and declined 8.8% year over year to $6.3 billion while accounting for 32.2% of all units shipped during the quarter.

Dell'Oro: Campus switch sales surge 15% yoy in Q2

The worldwide Campus Switch market revenue surged in 2Q 2021, growing 15 percent year-over-year, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. The last time we saw such a robust performance was back in 4Q 2018 when Cisco initiated its Catalyst 9K refresh cycle.

“Although a favorable comparison with the year-ago period may have played a role in this rebound, it is very encouraging to see a broad-based growth across all major regions; enterprises of all sizes (from large to small); and nearly all industry verticals, including those that have been hit hard by the pandemic such the hospitality sector,” said Sameh Boujelbene, Senior Director at Dell’Oro Group. “This is an improvement from the prior quarter where the recovery has been driven mostly by government stimulus that benefited mainly the public sector,” added Boujelbene.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2021 Ethernet Switch – Campus Report:

  • The year-over-year growth was broad-based across nearly all vendors, including those with high exposure to the low-end market.
  • Despite the robust growth, supply constraints impacted to some degree certain products and vendors. A more pronounced impact may manifest in the second half of the year.

Thursday, September 9, 2021

Spirent: 5G trends accelerating

As of mid-year 2021, 5G trends are continuing to accelerate, with 5G SA Core evaluation, testing and launch activities growing significantly across all geographic regions, according to Spirent Communications, which supplies test, assurance, and analytics solutions to mobile operators and network equiment vendors and device suppliers worldwide.

“At the halfway point in 2021, the dominant 5G trends that were present at the start of the year continue to gather pace, with the need for agility and responsiveness enduring,” said Spirent’s Head of Market Strategy, Steve Douglas. “With end-user adoption increasing at a blistering pace, service providers in all major regions are focused on accelerating time to market, improving coverage and optimizing costs. It’s clear that the global 5G race is back on.

Some highlights of the mid-year addendum to the Spirent 5G report: 

Geographic Trends - All major regions (North America, Europe and Asia) are aggressively pursuing 5G Standalone (SA) Core testing and deployments. North America is driving the demand for customer experience and service assurance solutions. Asia Pacific continues its focus on and investment in transport infrastructure, toward the goal of supporting industrial use cases. Europe is starting to accelerate activities after COVID and high-risk vendor delays.

5G Standalone - New services and differentiation are driving 5G Standalone. 5G SA Core evaluation, testing and launch continue to grow significantly across all geographic regions. Large service providers are looking to use multiple vendors while smaller telcos look for one key partner. Key challenges include supporting high release volumes and managing multi-vendor performance.

5G Telco Edge Cloud - Partnerships, early trials and deployments between hyperscalers and service providers are expanding. Providers are still working to benchmark edge performance and integrate assurance for consistent, deterministic latency. Latency looks set to become a key battle ground for the hearts and minds of industry and enterprises.

Open RAN - There are currently 45 ongoing Open RAN trials and early deployments across 27 countries (source: TeckNexus). Leading 5G service providers are targeting larger-scale Open RAN non-dense urban rollouts during 2022. Early deployments will focus on rural, indoor and private coverage. Interoperability, performance, robustness and system integrator overheads require that service providers continue to test and validate every deployment phase.

6G Vision - The industry is beginning to coalesce around some key themes, including THz frequencies, use of intelligent reconfigurable surfaces and metamaterials, open networking and network of networks (terrestrial cellular, NTN, subsea, and Wi-Fi convergence).

Spirent’s “5G 2021: Market Drivers, Insights & Consideration” addendum is available here:

Wednesday, September 8, 2021

VSG: Lumen leads Mid-2021 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD

Vertical Systems Group announces that the following seven companies achieved a position on the Mid-2021 U.S. Carrier Ethernet Services LEADERBOARD (in rank order based on retail port share as of June 30, 2021): Lumen, AT&T, Spectrum Enterprise, Verizon, Comcast, Cox and Windstream. To qualify for a rank on this LEADERBOARD, network providers must have a share of four percent (4%) or more of the U.S. retail Ethernet services market.

Five network providers attained a Mid-2021 Challenge Tier citation (in alphabetical order): Altice USA, Cogent, Frontier, GTT and Zayo. The Challenge Tier includes providers with between 1% and 4% share of the U.S. retail Ethernet services market.

“Protracted effects of the pandemic throughout the U.S. continue to suppress expansion of Ethernet service installations. Commercial building workforce levels – a primary driver for bandwidth – remain lower than normal,” said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. “We continue to see strength in demand for Ethernet DIA and Ethernet-based wavelength services. Conversely, the shift to hybrid SD-WAN solutions is negatively impacting switched metro Ethernet and Ethernet access to MPLS services.”

Mid-2021 U.S. Ethernet Services Research Highlights

  • Lumen (formerly CenturyLink) has held first position on the U.S. Ethernet LEADERBOARD since year-end 2017, subsequent to the merger of CenturyLink and Level 3.
  • Cox advances to sixth position on the Mid-2021 U.S. Ethernet LEADERBOARD ahead of Windstream, which moves to seventh position.
  • Comcast had the highest port share growth in the first half of the year across all companies on the Mid-Year 2021 U.S. Ethernet LEADERBOARD.
  • The number of Challenge Tier companies drops to five from six as T-Mobile (includes Sprint) moves into the Market Player tier.
  • Dedicated Internet Access (DIA) continues to be the top performing Ethernet service. Customer demand for Ethernet DIA is driven by requirements for secure, high speed dedicated connectivity to data centers and cloud-based services, as well as for SD-WAN underlays.
  • Growth of the substantial U.S. base of E-Access to VPN services is waning as customers migrate from MPLS to SD-WAN. E-Access to VPN offerings provide connectivity to private IP/MPLS VPNs, gateways to SD-WAN services and Hybrid WANs.
  • Lumen and Verizon are the only U.S. Ethernet LEADERBOARD-ranked service providers with MEF 3.0 Carrier Ethernet certification to date.

Tuesday, September 7, 2021

Dell'Oro raises outlook for O-RAN

Dell'Oro Group's Open RAN radio and baseband projections have been revised upward – total cumulative Open RAN revenues are now projected to approach $10 B to $15 B between 2020 and 2025.

“The momentum with both commercial deployments and the broader Open RAN movement continued to improve during 1H21, bolstering the thesis that Open RAN is here to stay,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and analyst with the Dell’Oro Group. “We are adjusting the forecast upward to reflect the higher baseline and the improved pipeline,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the Dell’Oro Group Open RAN Advanced Research Report:

  • Open RAN revenues are expected to account for more than 10 percent of the overall RAN market by 2025, reflecting healthy traction in multiple regions with both basic and advanced radios.
  • Open RAN Massive MIMO projections have been revised upward to reflect the improved competitive landscape and the improved market sentiment with upper mid-band Open RAN.
  • The shift towards Virtualized RAN (V-RAN) is progressing at a slightly slower pace than Open RAN. Still, total V-RAN projections remain relatively unchanged, with V-RAN expected to approach $2 B to $3 B by 2025.

Dell'Oro: SP router and switch market dipped in 2Q21

 The worldwide Service Provider Router and Switch market declined with a low single-digit revenue decrease in 2Q 2021, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. The market contraction was primarily the result of a reduction in revenue in China that offset growth in all other regions.

“The demand for routers in China declined in the second quarter as 5G transport buildouts slowed, but we think this was a temporary situation that a strong rebound is likely in the second half of the year,” said Shin Umeda, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “The good news is that revenue from all other regions increased in the second quarter, and service provider router spending for the first half of 2021 have climbed above pre-pandemic levels,” added Umeda.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2021 Service Provider Router and Switch Report:

  • Cisco remained the top-ranked vendor for market share, followed by Huawei, Nokia, and Juniper.
  • The Service Provider Core Router market is on track to grow at a double-digit rate in 2021, led by the adoption of 400 Gbps technologies.
  • Supply constraints have not had a significant effect on the Service Provider Router and Switch market through the first half of 2021.

Saturday, August 28, 2021

Dell'Oro: Disaggregated DWDM equipment market up 36% in Q2

Disaggregated DWDM systems revenue outperformed the broader optical transport market in 2Q 2021, growing 36 percent year-over-year while the total WDM market was nearly unchanged from the year-ago quarter, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. As a result of the strong quarter, the forecast for disaggregated DWDM systems was further raised.

"Disaggregated DWDM systems outperformed the broader market, demonstrating the growing adoption of this platform type," said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell'Oro Group. "Really what we see is that this type of platform architecture, where transponder units are independent of the line systems, is being more widely embraced beyond the Internet content providers. Also, it is no longer just for metro applications. Recently, the highest growth rates have been from long-haul applications," added Yu.

Highlights from 2Q 2021 Quarterly Report:

  • The top manufacturers by revenue share for disaggregated transponder units were Ciena, Infinera, and Cisco.
  • The immediate need to migrate to higher speed, better performing transponder technology has been one of the main drivers for using disaggregated transponder units. As a result, 400+ Gbps wavelengths were the fastest-growing line speeds on these systems.
  • The outlook for disaggregated transponder units was raised due to the higher rate of adoption outside of hyperscalers. We now forecast revenue for this equipment type to surpass $2 billion this year.

Dell'Oro upgrades 2021 outlook for RAN market

Preliminary findings suggest the RAN market continued to operate at elevated levels in the second quarter, showing remarkable resilience in the face of various risks including the on-going pandemic, supply chain shortages, and export restrictions, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

“The underlying long-term growth drivers have not changed and continue reflect the shift from 4G to 5G, new FWA and enterprise capex, and the transitions towards active antenna systems,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and analyst with the Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, a string of indicators suggest this output acceleration is still largely driven by the shift from 4G to 5G, which continued at a torrid pace in the quarter, even as LTE surprised on the upside,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2021 RAN report:

  • RAN rankings did not change – Huawei and ZTE were the No.1 and No.2 suppliers in China while Ericsson and Nokia maintained their No.1 and No.2 positions outside of China.
  • Revenue shares changed slightly – preliminary estimates suggest Ericsson and Samsung recorded revenue share gains outside of China, while Huawei and ZTE improved their positions in China.
  • The RAN market remains on track for a fourth consecutive year of growth. The short-term outlook has been revised upward – total RAN is now projected to advance 10 percent to 15 percent in 2021.

Monday, August 23, 2021

IDC forecasts Managed Edge Services market to reach $2.8B in 2025

Worldwide revenues for managed edge services will reach $445.3 million in 2021, an increase of 43.5% over 2020, according to a new forecast from International Data Corporation (IDC). Over the 2021-2025 forecast period, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for managed edge services is expected to be 55.1%.

IDC said it believes public cloud providers, or hyperscalers, will be key enablers of edge services through the partnerships they are establishing with 5G service providers. 

"Managed edge services represent a significant monetization opportunity for service providers to capitalize on their investment in edge compute," says Ghassan Abdo, research vice president, Worldwide Telecom, Virtualization, and CDN, IDC. "At the same time, service providers are keenly aware of the potential impact of the edge on their current market position and are watching closely for unforeseen competition from adjacent markets and new disruptors. Technology vendors including network equipment providers (NEPs) and software, datacenter, and networking vendors are vying to shape this market and play a significant role in delivering innovative edge services."

IDC identified three primary deployment models for managed edge services.

  • On-premises deployment: This represents managed edge use cases where the edge compute infrastructure is deployed at the enterprises' premises, also referred to as private deployment. This deployment model is intended to address the need for extra low latency and is applicable to industrial use cases, healthcare, and AR/VR applications.
  • Service provider edge deployment: This represents managed edge services provided by edge compute deployed at the provider edge, both fixed and mobile. IDC expects this deployment model to spur development of a wide range of vertical use cases.
  • CDN edge deployment: This represents managed edge services provided by edge compute deployed at the CDN POPs or edge locations. These use cases will enhance content delivery with personalized, high-fidelity, and interactive rich media customer experience.

IDC projects the on-premises edge to be the fastest-growing segment with a five-year CAGR of 74.5%. The service provider edge will be the second-fastest growing segment with a CAGR of 59.2%, which will enable it to become the largest market segment by 2022. The CDN edge segment is expected to have a five-year CAGR of 41.9%.

Thursday, August 12, 2021

Vertical Systems: Mid-2021 Global SD-WAN LEADERBOARD

Vertical Systems Group announces that the following seven companies achieved a position on the Mid-2021 Global Provider Carrier Managed SD-WAN LEADERBOARD (in rank order based on site share outside of home country as of June 30, 2021): Orange Business Services (France), AT&T (U.S.), Verizon (U.S.), NTT (Japan), BT Global Services (U.K.), Telefonica Global Solutions (Spain) and Vodafone (U.K.). This industry benchmark for multinational SD-WAN market presence ranks companies that hold a 5% or higher share of billable retail sites outside of their respective home countries.

Twelve companies qualify for the Mid-2021 Global Provider Managed SD-WAN Challenge Tier (in alphabetical order): Aryaka (U.S.), Colt (U.K.), Deutsche Telekom (Germany), Global Cloud Xchange (India), GTT (U.S.), Hughes (U.S.), Lumen (U.S.), PCCW Global (Hong Kong), Singtel (Singapore), Tata (India), Telia (Sweden) and Telstra (Australia). The Challenge Tier includes companies with site share between 1% and 5% of this defined SD-WAN segment.

“We’re pleased to release the first benchmark that measures Global Provider market presence based on multinational managed SD-WAN customer sites,” said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. “Enterprises with business-essential applications that span multiple regions of the world are choosing SD-WAN solutions from network operators with the global infrastructures, experience, partnerships and technical expertise necessary to deliver world-class services.”

Research Highlights for Global Provider SD-WAN Services:

  • Orange Business Services gained the top share rank on the Mid-2021 Global Provider Managed SD-WAN LEADERBOARD with the largest number of customer sites installed.
  • Vertical’s SD-WAN Coverage Analysis for five regional markets – North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa/Middle East, Asia/Pacific – shows that all seven companies ranked on the Mid-2021 Global Provider SD-WAN LEADERBOARD have good to strong coverage in at least three of these regions.
  • COVID-19 continues to appreciably impact every region of the world. Challenges cited by Global SD-WAN operators include workforce health protection, tracking the shift back from remote to office environments, service disconnects due to business closures, and supply chain disruptions.
  • Most multinational Managed SD-WAN customer implementations are hybrid network configurations that incorporate MPLS, IP VPN, Cloud connectivity or other services, plus multiple security capabilities that are integral or supplied by technology partners.
  • SD-WAN customers with MPLS connections are migrating to more cloud-suitable broadband services that provide bandwidth flexibility and lower pricing. DIA availability and costs vary considerably by country.
  • Ethernet DIA is the preferred choice for SD-WAN customers that require dedicated, symmetrical connectivity. Five of the seven companies on the Mid-2021 Global Provider SD-WAN LEADERBOARD are ranked on the 2020 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD (in rank order): AT&T, Orange Business Services, Verizon, BT Global Services and NTT.
  • Two companies ranked on the Mid-2021 Global Provider SD-WAN LEADERBOARD – AT&T and Verizon – have attained MEF 3.0 SD-WAN Services Certification to date. Additionally, three companies cited in the Challenge Tier – Colt, PCCW Global and Telia – have MEF 3.0 SD-WAN Services certification.
  • The primary technology suppliers to the nineteen Mid-2021 Carrier Managed SD-WAN LEADERBOARD and Challenge Tier companies are as follows (in alphabetical order): Cisco, Fortinet, HPE Aruba, Nuage Networks by Nokia, Versa and VMware.
  • The Market Player tier includes providers with site share below 1%. Companies in the Mid-2021 Market Player tier are as follows (in alphabetical order): Batelco (Bahrain), China Telecom (China), Claro Enterprise Solutions (Mexico), CMC Networks (South Africa), Cogent (U.S.), Epsilon (Singapore), Etisalat (Abu Dhabi), Expereo (Netherlands), HGC Global (Hong Kong), Intelsat (U.S.), KDDI (Japan), Masergy (U.S.), Meriplex (U.S.), PLDT Enterprise (Philippines), SES (Luxembourg), Sparkle (Italy), StarHub (Singapore), Syringa Networks (U.S.), T-Mobile (U.S.), Telenor (Norway), Telin (Singapore), Transtelco (U.S.), Virgin Media (U.K.), Zayo (U.S.) and other providers selling SD-WAN services outside their home country.

Sunday, July 25, 2021

Dell'Oro: Optical transport market reaches $18 billion by 2025

 The Optical Transport market, largely driven by WDM equipment, is forecasted to increase in size annually for the next five years, reaching nearly $18 billion, according to Dell’Oro Group's Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report. The top number is unchanged from Dell'Oro's earlier forecast, however, the outlook is lower for  WDM Metro since the coherent 400 Gbps ZR (400ZR) pluggable optics are now available and "interest in using them in an IPoDWDM architecture seems high."

Some highlights:

  • demand for coherent ZR optical pluggables is expected to reach a material amount in 2022, starting with 400ZR. Demand is expected to be high with Internet content providers (ICPs), driving a very high percentage growth rate for the next few years. 
  • 800ZR is expected to enter the market a few years later. 
  • the ZR pluggable optics market will surpass $500 million in annual sales by 2025.
  • Demand for 800 Gbps-capable line cards, first introduced in early 2020, has rapidly increased, demonstrating a strong rate of adoption as well as the market's continued desire for higher performance DWDM transponder cards.
  • The next wavelength speed following 800 Gbps will be 1200 Gbps (1.2 Tbps). 
  • Dell'Oro anticipates that 1.2 Tbps-capable line cards could enter the market before the end of 2023.
  • Dell'Oro forecasts that by 2025 about one-third of all coherent wavelength shipments will be from a line card capable of transmitting a signal at a speed of 800 Gbps or higher.

Dell'Oro: Mobile Core Network market to top $50 B from 2021 to 2025

The Mobile Core Network (MCN) to have an overall revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from 2020 to 2025, according to Dell'Oro Group's updated Mobile Core Network 5-Year Forecast Report which covers the market for Wireless Packet Core, IMS Core, policy, and subscriber management. The report also estimates the 5G portion of the MCN market to have a 33% CAGR. 

Some key highlights:

  • The cumulative investment is expected to be over $50 B from 2021 to 2025, with regional shares in the range for North America – 18 % to 23 %; Europe, Middle East, and Africa – 30 % to 35 %; Asia Pacific – 40 % to 45 %; and Caribbean and Latin America – 5 % to 10 %.
  • By the year 2025, MCN functions associated with 5G are expected to represent over 70 % of the revenue mix between 4G and 5G MCN functions.
  • 5G Core builds by the three incumbent service providers for 5G Standalone (5G SA) networks in China are continuing to exceed our expectations. In addition, in 2021, the new Chinese communications service provider, China Broadcasting Network will be beginning construction of its 5G SA network.
  • Deployments of more 5G SA networks are expected in the latter half of 2021 in Australia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. AT&T and Verizon should begin in earnest in 2022 and 2023 with their 5G SA networks. Geographic coverage is minimal at launch and is expected to grow throughout the forecast period.