Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 15, 2020

IDC: Vendor revenue for cloud infrastructure dipped in 3Q19

Vendor revenue from sales of IT infrastructure products (server, enterprise storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud environments, including public and private cloud, declined 1.8% year over year in the third quarter of 2019 (3Q19), according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker. The decline was softer than the dip experienced in 2Q19, and leading IDC to slightly increase its forecast for total spending on cloud IT infrastructure in 2019 to $65.4 billion, which represents flat performance compared to 2018.

IDC said the decline in cloud IT infrastructure spending was driven by the public cloud segment, which was down 3.7% year over year, reaching $11.9 billion; sequentially from 2Q19, this represents a 24.4% increase. As the overall segment is generally trending up, it tends to be more volatile quarterly as a significant part of the public cloud IT segment is represented by a few hyperscale service providers.

Some highlights:
  • Vendor revenue in the public cloud IT segment is expected to reach $44 billion in sales for the full year 2019, a decline of 3.3% from 2018. 
  • Vendor revenue in the private cloud IT segment increased 3.2% year over year, reaching nearly $5 billion. IDC expects spending in this segment to grow 7.2% year over year in 2019 to $21.4 billion.
  • The IT infrastructure industry is approaching the point where spending on cloud IT infrastructure consistently surpasses spending on non-cloud IT infrastructure. In 3Q19, cloud IT environments accounted for 53.4% of vendor revenues. However, for the full year 2019, spending on cloud IT infrastructure is expected to stay just below the 50% mark at 49.8%. This year (2020) is expected to become the tipping point with spending on cloud IT infrastructure staying in the 50+% range.
  • Vendor revenue for Ethernet switches is the only segment expected to deliver visible year-over-year growth in 2019, up 11.2%, while spending on compute platforms will decline 3.1% and spending on storage will grow just 0.8%. Compute will remain the largest category of cloud IT infrastructure spending at $34.1 billion.
  • Sales of IT infrastructure products into traditional (non-cloud) IT environments declined 7.7% from a year ago in 3Q19. 
  • For the full year 2019, worldwide spending on traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure is expected to decline by 5.3%. 
  • By 2023, IDC expects that traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure will only represent 41.9% of total worldwide IT infrastructure spending (down from 51.6% in 2018). 
  • Geographically, declines in the U.S., Western Europe, and Latin America were driven by overall market weakness; in these and some other regions 3Q19 softness in cloud IT infrastructure spending was also affected by comparisons to a strong 3Q18. In Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), the second largest geography after the U.S., spending on cloud IT infrastructure increased 1.2% year over year, which is low for this region. However, it is in comparison with strong double-digit growth in 2018. Other growing regions in 3Q19 included Canada (4.9%), Central & Eastern Europe (4.6%), and Middle East & Africa (18.1%).


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45899920

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Gartner: Worldwide semiconductor revenue drops 11.9% in '19

Worldwide semiconductor revenue totaled $418.3 billion in 2019, down 11.9% from 2018, according to preliminary results by Gartner, Inc. The report cites the drop in the memory market as the top reason for the decline. Sales analog products’ declined 5.4% while optoelectronics grew 2.4%.

“The memory market, which accounted for 26.7% of semiconductor sales in 2019, experienced a 31.5% decline in revenue in 2019,” said Andrew Norwood, research vice president at Gartner. “Within memory, DRAM revenue declined 37.5% due to an oversupply that started at the end of 2018 and lasted throughout 2019. The oversupply was caused by a sudden fall in demand from the hyperscale market. This revealed excessive OEM inventory levels that took the first half of the year to correct. Excessive inventory at DRAM vendors in the second half of 2019 pushed pricing lower and resulted in an average selling price (ASP) decline of 47.4% in 2019.”

“In 2020, we expect to see semiconductor market revenue increase after the high inventory clearance to drive up the chip ASP, especially in the memory sector,” said Mr. Norwood. “The U.S.-China trade war seems to be easing as we move into 2020. However, during 2019 the U.S. added several Chinese companies, including Huawei, to the Entity List restricting the sale of U.S. components. The immediate impact was to push Huawei into looking outside the U.S. for alternative silicon suppliers, with wholly owned HiSilicon at the top of the list as well as alternative suppliers based in Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China. This will be an area to watch in 2020.”

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

GSMA examines consumer 5G upgrade plans

The arrival of 5G will not guarantee a surge in device upgrades, according to new GSMA Intelligence research.

The newly-released Future of Devices report found that smartphone ownership among adults in most high- and middle-income countries is at 85-95 percent. However, only 30-40 percent of survey respondents in significant markets such as the US, Europe and Australia said the arrival of 5G is likely to result in a smartphone upgrade in the short term. By contrast, markets such as China and South Korea will be early adopters; nearly 50 percent of Chinese consumers say they will buy a 5G phone as soon as they are available.

“The device ecosystem will be critical in shaping the trajectory of 5G adoption,” said Peter Jarich, Head of GSMA Intelligence. “However, it’s a mistake to believe that consumers in every market will look at 5G upgrades in the same way. Operators and device manufacturers will need to understand consumer demand on a granular level if they hope to make the most of the 5G opportunity.”

The report is based on GSMA Intelligence’s 2019 Consumer Survey, which surveyed 38,000 respondents across 36 key markets, using a blend of online and face-to-face sampling methodologies.
 

Sunday, December 8, 2019

IDC: Ethernet switch market rose 0.1% in 3Q 2019

The Worldwide Ethernet switch market (Layer 2/3) recorded $7.32 billion in revenue in the third quarter of 2019 (3Q19), an increase of 0.1% year over year, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and Worldwide Quarterly Router Tracker. Worldwide total enterprise and service provider (SP) router market revenues grew 0.8% year over year in 3Q19 to $3.74 billion.



Some highlights:


  • The Middle East and Africa region grew 9.3% with the region's largest market, the United Arab Emirates, growing 6.9% year over year while Israel's market grew 18.8%. 
  • Across Europe, growth was stagnant. The Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region lost 9.0% compared to a year earlier with Russia dropping 13.9% year over year. 
  • The Western Europe market fell 6.1% with Germany losing 5.6% year over year. Denmark was a bright spot in the region with 18.6% year-over-year growth.
  • The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) region grew 1.3% year over year. In China, the market grew 4.6% year over year while the Philippines rose 25.9%. Japan was off 3.8% compared to its growth in 3Q18. In Latin America, the market dropped 4.4% year over year, while the U.S. market grew 2.6% annually and Canada declined 4.9% year over year.
  • Port shipments for 100Gb switches rose 57.2% year over year to 5.6 million. 100Gb revenues grew 32.8% year over year in 3Q19 to $1.44 billion, making up 19.6% of total market revenue compared to 14.8% a year earlier. 
  • 25Gb switches also saw impressive growth with revenues increasing 69.3% to $463.4 million and port shipments growing 68.0% year over year. 
  • Lower-speed campus switches, a more mature part of the market, saw moderate growth in port shipments but declining revenue, pointing to a decrease in average selling prices (ASPs). 
  • 10Gb port shipments rose 7.9% year over year, but revenue declined 8.7% to deliver 26.3% of total market revenue. 1Gb switches grew 3.9% year over year in port shipments but declined 7.4% in revenue. 1Gb now accounts for 39.2% of the total Ethernet switch market revenue.



  • The worldwide enterprise and service provider router market increased 0.8% on a year-over-year basis in 3Q19 with the major service provider segment, which accounts for 75.5% of revenues, decreasing 0.1% and the enterprise segment of the market growing 3.6%. 
  • From a regional perspective, the combined service provider and enterprise router market fell 1.5% in APeJ with the enterprise segment growing 1.5% and the service provider segment declining 2.2% year over year. 
  • Japan's total market grew 3.9% year over year. Revenues in Western Europe were off 7.3% year over year while CEE revenues for the combined enterprise and service provider market grew 3.5% year over year. 
  • The Middle East & Africa region was up 8.9%. In the U.S., the enterprise segment was up 7.3% while service provider revenues grew 1.8%, giving the combined markets 3.2% year-over-year growth. In Latin America, the market grew 11.7%.
  • Cisco finished 3Q19 with a 5.6% year-over-year decline in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 51.3%. In the hotly contested 25Gb/100Gb segment, Cisco was the market leader with 38.2% revenue share. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue declined 10.6% year over year with enterprise router revenue increasing 3.4% and SP revenues falling 18.1%. Cisco's combined SP and enterprise router market share increased to 37.9%, up from 36.8% in 2Q19.
  • Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue rose 4.4% on an annualized basis, giving the company market share of 8.9%. The company's combined SP and enterprise router revenue rose 20.6% year over year, giving the company a market share of 28.1%.
  • Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues increase 14.3% in 3Q19, bringing its share to 7.6% of the total market, up from 6.6% a year earlier. 100Gb revenues accounting for 68.8% of the company's total revenue, indicating the company's focus on hyperscale and cloud providers.
  • HPE's Ethernet switch revenue declined 7.0% year over year, resulting in overall market share of 5.3%.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue rose 4.5% year over year in 3Q19, bringing its market share to 3.2%. Juniper saw a 17.9% decline in combined enterprise and SP router sales, bringing its market share in the router market to 10.9%.


"Dynamics in the Ethernet switch and routing markets continue to evolve," said Petr Jirovsky, research director, IDC Networking Trackers. "In Ethernet switching, the seemingly insatiable demand for higher-speed networking platforms continue to drive investments. Meanwhile, lower-speed campus switching continues to moderate as enterprises build out connectivity platforms to support mobile workers and the Internet of Things. In the routing segment, the enterprise continues to buoy the broader market as enterprises and service providers augment their networks to support improved cloud connectivity."

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45711319

Dell'Oro: Broadband access equipment market drops 12%

Global revenue for broadband access equipment market decreased 12% year-over-year (Y/Y) to $3.2 billion, according to a newly published report by Dell’Oro Group.

A 371 percent Y/Y increase in XGS-PON OLT revenue and continued growth of XG-PON1 OLT ports and CPE offset continued DSL declines.

“Operators’ continued push to increase their fiber investments is resulting in strong Y/Y gains in PON OLT ports,” said Jeff Heynen, Senior Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Though XGS-PON continues to grow rapidly, 2.5 Gbps GPON remains the workhorse in the market,” explained Heynen.

Some highlights:


  • Total cable access concentrator revenue decreased 31 percent Y/Y to $287 M, driven once again by a slowdown in CCAP license purchases in North America
  • Total DSL port shipments plummeted 28 percent Y/Y, with all technologies showing significant Y/Y declines

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Dell'Oro: Service Provider Router market dips 3% in 3Q 2019

The worldwide Service Provider Router market declined 3 percent year-over-year in 3Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

In the Asia-Pacific region, a sharp drop in sales to India more than offset growth in other countries.

“Service Provider Router demand continues to lack a strong set of drivers, and other than the China market, 5G RAN deployments are not yet driving significant investments in mobile backhaul and transport networks,” said Shin Umeda, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Routers supporting 400 Gbps interfaces are just becoming available, but the material impact to the market isn’t likely until 2021” added Umeda.

Additional highlights from the 3Q 2019 Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch Quarterly Report:

  • Cisco was the top-ranked Service Provider Router vendor, followed in order by Huawei, Nokia, and Juniper.
  • Service Provider Router rankings by region show Cisco with the top spot in North America. Nokia leads Europe, Middle East, and Africa region, and Huawei ranked highest in the Asia-Pacific region.
http://www.delloro.com

Dell'Oro: Mobile Core market jumps 14% in 3Q19

Mobile Core Network market revenue increased 14 percent year-over-year in the trailing four-quarter period ending in 3Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. Ericsson and Huawei were the top two vendors in that period.

“Four dominant themes arise from the Mobile Core Network report,” according to David Bolan, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “First, the Mobile Core Network market is growing as already noted. Second, Ericsson and Huawei are the clear market leaders, with Nokia holding a strong third-place rank, with ZTE and Cisco rounding out the top five manufacturers. Third, the Asia Pacific region with its large population centers remains the number one market in revenue despite its lower average selling prices. Fourth, 5G is real and happening,” Bolan stated.

“With over 50 service providers offering 5G service with the 5G NSA architecture, we expect 5G SA in 2020 with the 5G Core. There have been many press releases about milestone achievements with 5G SA recently, as tests in the labs and the field verify the performance of the 5G SA architecture with the 5G Core. This demonstrates that the market is on target to launch 5G SA with 5G Core in 2020,” Bolan continued.

The new Mobile Core Network report from Dell’Oro Group includes Wireless Packet Core, IMS Core, Policy, and Subscriber Management. It provides a comprehensive view of the wireless core market by revenue, volume, vendor, and region.

https://www.delloro.com/

IDC: Server market dips 6.7% in 3Q 2019

Vendor revenue in the worldwide server market declined 6.7% year over year to $22.0 billion during the third quarter of 2019 (3Q19), according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker.  Worldwide server shipments declined 3.0% year over year to just under 3.1 million units in 3Q19.


"While the server market did indeed decline last quarter, next-generation workloads and advanced server innovation (e.g., accelerated computing, storage class memory, next-generation I/O, etc.) keep demand for enterprise compute at near historic highs," said Paul Maguranis, senior research analyst, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "In fact, 3Q19 represented the second-biggest quarter for global server unit shipments in more than 16 years, eclipsed only by 3Q18."

Some highlights:

  • Dell Technologies and the combined HPE/New H3C Group ended 3Q19 in a statistical tie* for the number one position with 17.2% and 16.8% revenue share, respectively. 
  • Revenues for Dell Technologies declined 10.8% year over year 
  • Revenues for HPE/New H3C Group was down 3.2% year over year. 
  • The third-ranking server company during the quarter was Inspur/Inspur Power Systems, which captured 9.0% market share and grew revenues 15.3% year over year. 
  • Lenovo and Cisco ended the quarter tied* for the fifth position with 5.4% and 4.9% revenue share, respectively. 
  • Lenovo saw revenue decline by 16.9% year over year and Cisco saw its revenue grow 3.1% year over year.
  • The ODM Direct group of vendors accounted for 26.4% of total revenue and declined 7.1% year over year to $5.82 billion. 
  • Dell Technologies led the worldwide server market in terms of unit shipments, accounting for 16.4% of all units shipped during the quarter.

Saturday, November 30, 2019

Dell’Oro: 5G RAN spending on the rise

Surging 5G NR demand propelled the RAN market in 3Q 2019 to a fifth consecutive quarter of year-over-year (Y/Y) growth for the first time in over a decade, according to Dell’Oro Group.

  
“The positive momentum that has characterized this market since the upswing began in the second half of 2018 extended into 3Q 2019, underpinned by a 5G ramp that is accelerating at an extraordinary pace,” said Stefan Pongratz, Analyst and Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “While mid-band Massive MIMO continues to drive the lion share of the 5G capex, both low-band and Millimeter Wave (mmW) 5G NR deployments accelerated significantly in the quarter,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the 3Q 2019 RAN report:

  • The broad-based pickup in RAN revenues was reflected in shipment trends, with total BTS shipments—macro and small cell—advancing at a double-digit pace year-to-date (1Q19 through 3Q19).
  • Aggregate growth for RAN systems using advanced antenna systems—including sub 6 GHz Massive MIMO and mmW—accelerated in the third quarter, accounting for 10 to 20 percent of the year-to-date RAN revenues.
  • RAN revenue rankings for the top three vendors—Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia—were stable in the quarter and for the year-to-date period.

Monday, November 25, 2019

Reality check for the SD-WAN market



Quick reality check on SD-WAN... the U.S. market is currently in the high 100 million dollar range for carrier managed services. In comparison, the existing enterprise VPN service market, which includes MPLS and site-to-site VPNs, is valued at $12 billion or more, even though it is flat to slightly declining.

Erin Dunne, Director of Research Services, Vertical Systems Group, provides insight.

https://youtu.be/3a2TENT4OVc

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Dell'Oro: Stable demand for optical transport equipment in Q3

There was stable demand for optical transport equipment in 3Q 2019 as WDM revenue grew 4 percent year-over-year in the quarter, according to Dell’Oro Group.

“Demand for network capacity has not shown any signs of abating,” said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “In the third quarter of 2019, the amount of capacity shipped on WDM equipment grew above 30 percent year-over-year, driving the WDM market up 4 percent. Once again, disaggregated WDM systems shined the brightest, continuing to grow year-over-year for a sixteenth consecutive quarter. In 3Q 2019, it grew 28 percent, reaching an annualized revenue of $1.4 billion,” added Yu.

Additional highlights from the 3Q 2019 Optical Transport Quarterly Report:

  • The only region reported to have declined in the quarter was the Asia Pacific.
  • The manufacturers with the highest WDM market share gains were Ciena and Huawei.
  • The market is shifting rapidly towards 200+ Gbps wavelengths, initiating a slowdown in demand for 100 Gbps wavelengths.

https://www.delloro.com/news/stable-demand-for-optical-transport-equipment-in-3q-2019/

Thursday, November 7, 2019

IDC: 358.3 million smartphone shipments in Q3, up 1% yoy

A total of 358.3 million smartphones were shipped during Q3, which was up 8.1% from the previous quarter and up 0.8% from a year ago, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

Some highlights from IDC

Samsung gained share in 3Q19 with annual growth of 8.3% on the back of the Galaxy Note 10 launch in August and increased A series volumes, with a total of 78.2 million smartphones shipped.

Huawei shipped higher volumes than expected as it shifted focus to its domestic market, particularly in lower-tier cities, and increased inventories given the unknown future with Google Mobile services. While a sentiment of nationalism has helped to bolster Huawei in China, solid relationships with the local channel players has been key, offering favorable distributor terms and a well-rounded product portfolio. Nevertheless, there will be challenges ahead with 4G inventory to clear while consumers wait for affordable 5G products to hit the market.

Apple shipped 46.6 million iPhones in 3Q19, which was a slight decline year over year but still better than most expectations. Apple continues to sell some refurbished iPhones via its own channels, which sustain and possibly grow the installed base, but also impact iPhone revenues. Newer iPhones, specifically the iPhone 11s and XR, did very well this quarter, capturing strong share in important markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.

Xiaomi for the first time saw less than a third of its shipments delivered domestically in China, which was second to India in volume. Domestically, despite its launch of the CC series to appeal to young female consumers, shipments declined under pressure from Huawei. The runway was clearer for Xiaomi in India, however, where it strengthened its offline presence by expanding its sales network via the Mi Store and Mi Preferred Partners.

A total of 358.3 million smartphones were shipped during Q3, which was up 8.1% from the previous quarter and up 0.8% from a year ago, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

Some highlights from IDC

Samsung gained share in 3Q19 with annual growth of 8.3% on the back of the Galaxy Note 10 launch in August and increased A series volumes, with a total of 78.2 million smartphones shipped. The lower-end to midrange A series in particular helped to fill in the gaps left behind by Huawei.

Huawei shipped higher volumes than expected as it shifted focus to its domestic market, particularly in lower-tier cities, and increased inventories given the unknown future with Google Mobile services. While a sentiment of nationalism has helped to bolster Huawei in China, solid relationships with the local channel players has been key, offering favorable distributor terms and a well-rounded product portfolio. Nevertheless, there will be challenges ahead with 4G inventory to clear while consumers wait for affordable 5G products to hit the market.

Apple shipped 46.6 million iPhones in 3Q19, which was a slight decline year over year but still better than most expectations. Apple continues to sell some refurbished iPhones via its own channels, which sustain and possibly grow the installed base, but also impact iPhone revenues. Newer iPhones, specifically the iPhone 11s and XR, did very well this quarter, capturing strong share in important markets like the U.S. and Western Europe.

Xiaomi for the first time saw less than a third of its shipments delivered domestically in China, which was second to India in volume. Domestically, despite its launch of the CC series to appeal to young female consumers, shipments declined under pressure from Huawei. The runway was clearer for Xiaomi in India, however, where it strengthened its offline presence by expanding its sales network via the Mi Store and Mi Preferred Partners.

OPPO also focused its attention outside of China as it approached the tipping point of nearly half of its shipments outside of China with domestic shipments focused on the Reno series and the A9. India experienced the strongest momentum internationally where the Reno series helped complete its product portfolio with higher-end offerings while the online-exclusive K series strengthened its online presence.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45636719

Thursday, October 24, 2019

Cisco: IT must align networking to business strategy

IT teams need to pivot from being consumed with maintaining the status quo to becoming an enabler of new business innovation, according to a survey conducted by Cisco of over 2000 IT leaders and network strategists.

"IT teams today are running complex mission critical networks that are increasingly capable of providing rich data. But using that data to improve the operations, security, or business impact of the network requires new tools. That's why IT teams are embracing intent-based networking, AI and machine learning — because the business demands it," said Scott Harrell, SVP and GM, Cisco Enterprise Networking.


Some highlights from Cisco's Global Networking Trends Report and Survey:

IT leaders expect new wireless technologies, IoT and AI-enabled operations, threat detection and remediation to have the biggest impact on their network strategy and design over the next five years.

The top priority for global IT leaders and network strategists is to maximize the business value of IT and more closely align to business needs.

  • Almost 40 percent of IT leaders named maximizing IT’s business value as their number one priority, higher than simplifying operations, optimizing employee productivity and minimizing security events.
  • In order to achieve this, leaders and strategists believe investing in AI technologies is crucial. Almost 50 percent of network strategists believe increasing the use of analytics and AI will help enable the ideal network.

Intent-based networking is coming, allowing organizations to build on their software-defined networking foundations.

  • 41 percent of those surveyed claim to have at least one instance of SDN in at least one of their network domains.
  • Only 4 percent of respondents believe their networks have moved beyond software-defined and are intent-based today. However, 35 percent believe their networks will be fully intent-based in two years’ time.
  • When asked to indicate where on Cisco’s Digital Network Readiness Model their networks currently operate, only 28 percent indicated they’ve reached a service-driven or intent-based network. However, when asked where their networks will be in two years, 78 respondents believed they would move beyond software-defined towards service-driven and intent-based networks.  

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

LightCounting: High Speed Ethernet Optics Report

The market for Ethernet optical transceivers is expected to decline by 18% in 2019, which will be the steepest decline in the recorded history of this market, according to a new report from LightCounting.

Global sales of Ethernet optical transceivers increased by 16% CAGR in the period from 2004 to 2018, including a 5-year streak of 27% CAGR in 2012-2017. This accelerated growth was driven by deployments of optics in mega datacenters. The growth streak was started by Google deploying 10GbE transceivers in 2007-2008 and gained scale in 2012-2017 with the adoption of 40GbE and 100GbE transceivers.

LightCounting suggests that this market segment will post a 22% CAGR in 2019-2024, after a reset in 2019, driven by sales of next-generation products and continuing demand for 100GbE optics.

Several factors contributed to a slowdown in the market growth last year and a decline in 2019:

  • Transition to next-generation products takes longer than expected,
  • 100GbE prices reached new lows in Q1 2019 and reset expectations for the pricing of the next-generation products,
  • The slowdown in Cloud spending on optics deployed inside mega datacenters.
  • There is a lot of economic uncertainty related to escalating trade war between China and the US. The trade war has already impacted the economy in China and Chinese Cloud companies have lowered spending on high-speed optics as a result. More conservative infrastructure spending of US-based vendors aligns to the uncertain macro-economic situation.

https://www.lightcounting.com/News_100119.cfm


Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Cignal AI: Compact modular market slows as customers evaluate 600G

Sales of Compact Modular optical transport platforms slowed during the second quarter of the year despite significant growth from market leader Ciena, as reported in the latest Optical Applications Report from market research firm Cignal AI.

Production shipments of new 600Gbps platforms are taking longer to ramp as operators require more time to evaluate these next-generation solutions. As a result, Cignal AI has decreased the overall 2019 Compact Modular sales forecast for the year.

The outlook for Compact Modular equipment remains positive, especially in NA and EMEA where growth is strong as incumbent and cloud & colo operators expand the use of disaggregated networks. Compact modular will claim a greater percentage of the market as operators migrate to IP-over-DWDM in 2022/2023.

“The move to disaggregated networks continues, and Compact Modular optical platforms are a central part of those network designs,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware and Cignal AI. “The rollout of 600Gbps platforms is taking longer than anticipated, but NEL and Acacia-based systems from Cisco, Infinera, and others should recognize greater revenue in the third quarter and will lead a return to growth.”

Cignal AI’s 2Q19 Optical Applications Report details market share and provides forecasts through 2023 in three key markets: compact modular equipment, advanced packet-OTN switching hardware, and 100G+ coherent WDM port shipments across multiple speeds.



Additional 2Q19 Applications Report Findings:

  • Ciena maintained leadership in the Compact Modular market and was the only vendor to grow sales in Q2. Other vendors are in the middle of a customer transition to higher 400G+ coherent technology.
  • Cisco recognized token revenue from Acacia-based Compact Modular systems this quarter. Both Cisco and Infinera are expected to recognize significant 400Gbps+ revenue in the third quarter.
  • Packet-OTN sales slowed in APAC but this is not an enduring trend; sales growth slowed in Q2 due to some delayed demand among Indian incumbents. This region remains the largest market for Packet-OTN.
  • Almost 500,000 coherent ports shipped during the past twelve months, with the vast majority coming from the top 5 vendors. Volume continues to aggressively ramp during 2019, including healthy shipments from Chinese vendors.
  • The long haul WDM market is growing in 2019 due to deployments of the latest coherent technology. Metro growth continues through the year with a delay in competitive price pressure from high baud rate optics.


https://cignal.ai/2019/09/compact-modular-market-slows-as-customers-evaluate-600g/

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Telecom's $490 Billion Open Source Network Opportunity



“This huge $490B equipment spending opportunity over the next 5 years in communications service provider networks is large but is also complex; and the impact of next-generation SDN is making broadband and 5G deployment easier,” said Chris DePuy, founding analyst for 650 Group. “Operators are now moving to open source on a project and a technology basis gradually. Operators expect to achieve considerable Opex savings while also improving service agility.”


CORD TAM Research Update - Keynote by Chris DePuy, Founding Analyst, 650 Group - ONF Connect 19 from Open Networking Foundation on Vimeo.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Vertical Systems: Mid-2019 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD

AT&T has topped Vertical Systems Group's Mid-Year 2019 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD. Results are as follows (in rank order based on retail port share): AT&T (U.S.), Colt (U.K.), CenturyLink (U.S.), BT Global Services (U.K.), Orange Business Services (France), Verizon (U.S.) and NTT (Japan).

"Network providers serving multinational enterprises continue to actively expand their Ethernet coverage globally," said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. "Customer demand for T1/E1 conversions and new Ethernet DIA connections are igniting growth in both existing and emerging markets. In response, providers are seeking more local partnerships to broaden their service delivery footprints."

Mid-Year 2019 Global Provider Highlights:

  • AT&T retains the top position on the Global Provider LEADERBOARD for the second consecutive year.
  • Share margins are tightening among the top four LEADERBOARD ranked companies - AT&T, Colt, CenturyLink and BT Global Services.
  • Eight companies attained a Challenge Tier citation, up from seven at the end of 2018, as Global Cloud Xchange advances from the Market Player tier.
  • Four of the seven LEADERBOARD providers and six of the eight Challenge Tier providers have MEF CE 2.0 certification. 

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Vertical Systems: Mid-Year 2019 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD

The top seven companies on Vertical Systems Group's newly published mid-year 2019 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD are (in rank order based on mid-year 2019 retail port share): CenturyLink, AT&T, Verizon, Spectrum Enterprise, Comcast, Windstream and Cox. This mid-year LEADERBOARD roster increases from six to seven as Cox moves up from the Challenge Tier.

To qualify for a rank on this LEADERBOARD, network providers must have four percent (4%) or more of the U.S. Ethernet services market. Shares are measured based on the number of billable retail customer ports installed. Vertical Systems Group's Ethernet port share analysis includes the following six service segments from the market perspective of what service providers are offering and enterprise customers are purchasing: Ethernet DIA (Dedicated Internet Access), E-Access to IP/MPLS VPN, Ethernet Private Lines, Ethernet Virtual Private Lines, Metro LAN, and WAN VPLS.

"In the first half of 2019 the U.S. Ethernet market showed steady port growth just above five percent," said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. "The three Cable MSOs ranked on the LEADERBOARD - Spectrum Enterprise, Comcast and Cox - had the highest port growth in this period, spurred in part by SD-WAN customer demand for Ethernet DIA connections to the public Internet."

In addition to the LEADERBOARD providers, all other companies selling Ethernet services in the U.S. are segmented into two tiers as measured by port share.

The Challenge Tier includes providers with between 1% and 4% share of the U.S. retail Ethernet market. For mid-year 2019, the following six companies attained a position in the Challenge Tier (in alphabetical order): Altice USA, Cogent, Frontier, GTT, Sprint and Zayo.

The Market Player tier includes all providers with port share below 1%. Companies in the Market Player tier include the following providers (in alphabetical order): Alaska Communications, American Telesis, Atlantic Broadband, BT Global Services, Cincinnati Bell, Consolidated Communications, Crown Castle Fiber, DQE Communications, Expedient, FiberLight, FirstLight, Fusion, Global Cloud Xchange, Great Plains Communications, Logix Fiber Networks, LS Networks, Masergy, MetTel, Midco, Momentum Telecom, NTT America, Orange Business, RCN Business, Segra, Sparklight Business, Tata, TDS Telecom, Telstra, TPx, Unite Private Networks, US Signal, WOW!Business and other companies selling retail Ethernet services in the U.S. market.

http://www.verticalsystems.com

Sunday, September 8, 2019

IDC: Ethernet Switch Market up 4.8% in 2Q19

The worldwide Ethernet switch market (Layer 2/3) recorded revenues of $7.07 billion in the second quarter of 2019 (2Q19), an increase of 4.8% year over year, according to IDC's newly updated Worldwide Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and Worldwide Quarterly Router Tracker. Worldwide total enterprise and service provider (SP) router market revenues grew 3.4% year over year in 2Q19 to $3.96 billion.

Ethernet Switch Market Highlights

  • Port shipments for 100Gb switches rose 58.3% year over year to 4.4 million. 
  • 100Gb revenues grew 42.9% year over year in 2Q19 to $1.28 billion, making up 18.1% of the market's revenue, compared to 13.2% of the market's revenue a year earlier. 
  • 25Gb switches also saw impressive growth, increasing 84.8% to $364.1 million, with port shipments growing 74.5% year over year. 
  • 10Gb port shipments rose 2.6% year over year, to make up 27.9% of the market's revenue. 
  • 1Gb switches grew 6.6% year over year in port shipments, making up 40.0% of the market's total revenues.
  • The Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region grew 10.8% year over year, with Russia – the region's largest market – growing 9.2% and Poland growing 29.6%. The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region also had strong growth at 10.2%; Qatar led the region's increase with 70.3% growth. Western Europe rose 1.1%, with the Netherlands growing 18.6% within the region.
  • The USA market grew 10.7% while Canada's market grew 3.8%. The Latin America region was off 1.2% after Brazil fell 8.3%.
  • The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) region fell 4.2% year over year. 
  • China's market declined 4.7% year over year while Australia's market dropped 16.0%.

Router Market Highlights

  • The worldwide enterprise and service provider router market grew 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in 2Q19, with the major service provider segment, which accounts for 75.9% of revenues, increasing 2.0% and the enterprise segment of the market growing a healthy 8.0%. 
  • The combined service provider and enterprise router market increased 2.7% in APeJ, with the service provider segment increasing 3.8%. 
  • Japan's total market grew 7.0% year over year. 
  • Revenues in Western Europe rose 5.2% year over year, while the CEE combined enterprise and service provider market grew 15.2% year over year. 
  • The MEA region was up 7.4%. 
  • In the USA, the enterprise segment was up 18.8%, but service provider revenues fell 6.4%, causing the total market to decline 0.8% year over year. Canada's market rose 9.2% year over year and the Latin American market grew 8.1%.

Vendor Highlights

  • Cisco finished 2Q19 with an 6.8% year-over-year increase in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 51.1%.  In the hotly contested 25Gb/100Gb segment, Cisco is the market leader with 38.8% of the market's revenue. Cisco's campus/branch Ethernet switch revenue increased 14.3% year over year. Meanwhile, Cisco's datacenter switching revenue declined 3.2% year over year in 2Q19. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue rose 6.6% year over year, with enterprise router revenue increasing 16.2% and SP revenues growing 1.1%. Cisco's combined SP and enterprise router market share increased to 36.8%, up from 35.7% in 2Q18.
  • Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue rose 18.9% on an annualized basis, giving the company market share of 9.7%. The company's combined SP and enterprise router revenue rose 1.5% year over year with a market share of 31.1%.
  • Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues increase 15.4% in 2Q19, bringing its share to 7.3% of the total market, up from 6.6% a year earlier. 100Gb revenues accounted for 65.4% of the company's total revenue, indicating the company's focus on hyperscale and cloud providers and select large enterprise segments.
  • HPE's Ethernet switch revenue declined 6.3% year over year, giving the company a market share of 5.8%.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue declined 19.6% in 2Q19, bringing its market share to 2.9%. Juniper saw a 15.0% decline in combined enterprise and SP router sales, bringing its market share in the router market to 10.5%.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45487019

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Dell'Oro: DWDM systems revenue grew 8% Y/Y in 1H19

The market for DWDM systems significantly grew year-over-year (Y/Y) in the first half of 2019, according to Dell'Oro Group, in part because the comparative period, 1H 2018, includes much lower sales into China caused by the US ban on ZTE.



Some highlights:

  • In 1H 2019, Ciena held nearly 30 percent share of the optical DWDM market outside of China due to the company’s dominance in North America and growing share in international markets. 
  • Ciena’s revenue grew over 20 percent Y/Y. 
  • During this period, Huawei held the second-highest share outside of China even though the company’s market share declined slightly from both full-year 2018 and 1H 2018. 
  • Nokia continued to hold the third-highest share outside of China with revenue growth in the period exceeding the market average percentage growth of 5 percent.


https://www.delloro.com/optical-transport-2q19-report-dwdm-systems-market-grew-8-percent-y-y-in-1h-2019/

See also