Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 20, 2019

LTE accounts for 47% of cellular connections worldwide

Approximately 4 billion connections worldwide are now LTE, representing 47% of all cellular connections, according to the trade group 5G Americas and Ovum.

North America’s market share for LTE at 82 percent exceeds all other world regions at the fourth quarter of 2018; the next highest world regions are Oceania; Eastern and South Eastern Asia with LTE share of 67 percent followed by Western Europe at 52 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean had significant growth of LTE market share to 40 percent, up from 29 percent at the end of 2017. Market share represents the percentage of mobile wireless connections that are LTE technology versus all other mobile cellular technologies.



“While the 5G market reality and innovation are upon us, the number of LTE connections continue to grow on 637 commercial networks worldwide, as well as the evolution to advanced LTE networks for the Internet of Things, Gigabit LTE speeds and new methods for spectrum use and sharing,” stated Chris Pearson, President of 5G Americas.

Additional highlights

4Q 2018 - North America

  • LTE achieved 417 million connections with a market share of 82 percent in the U.S. and Canada.
  • LTE penetration passed 100 percent in 2018. This penetration rate is forecast to rise to 125 percent in 2021 after which time new 5G connections will begin to impact LTE subscriptions and penetration rates. Penetration rates represent the number of connections compared to the population.
  • 417 million LTE connections at 4Q 2018; increase of 63 million year-over-year
  • LTE is forecast to reach 86 percent market share with 473 million connections at the end of 2020 (including M2M) then begin to decline as 5G connections begin to grow; in 2021, LTE market share is forecast to decline to 83 percent and 467 million LTE subscriptions
  • Early launches of 5G in the U.S. will result in the #1 position globally in 2019 with 336,000 connections, 47 percent of all global 5G connections; however, 5G connections will quickly grow in North America to almost 4 million in 2020 (forecast)
  • 5G connections are forecast to pass 100 million in 2022

4Q 2018 - Latin America and the Caribbean

  • LTE’s market share increased from 17 to 29 percent year-over-year at year-end 2017, and grew to 40 percent by the end of 2018. LTE is forecast to be the most widely used cellular technology in the region by the end of 2019.  
  • 700 million total mobile wireless subscriptions
  • 277 million LTE connections; 74 million added year-over-year from 4Q 2017
  • 4Q 2018 was the largest growth quarter for LTE in 2018 with 19.8 million new connections while all other mobile technologies declined; GSM lost 53 million connections and was down to 123 million at the end of 2018
  • LTE is forecast to reach 348 million connections at the end of 2019, 413 million at end of 2020, and peak at 510 million connections by 2022 with 67 percent market share (forecast includes M2M)
  • By 2021, 5G is forecast to achieve nearly 3.5 million connections growing to 17 million in 2022 and 75 million connections in 2023  

4Q 2018 - Global 


  • At the end of 2018, global LTE connections reached nearly 4 billion. Also notable, LTE market share reached 47 percent, up from 37 percent at the end of 2017.


http://www.5gamericas.org

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

GSMA: China’s mobile ecosystem equivalent to 5.5% of China’s GDP

China’s mobile ecosystem added RMB5.2 trillion ($750 billion) in value to the country’s economy last year, equivalent to 5.5 percent of China’s GDP in 20181, according to a new GSMA report.

Highlights:

  • China is the largest mobile market in the world, home to almost 1.2 billion unique mobile subscribers2 at the end of 2018, representing 82 percent of the country’s population;
  • More than two thirds (69 percent) of mobile connections in China3 are smartphones, with smartphone adoption expected to reach 88 percent of connections by 2025;
  • 77 percent of China’s connections are currently running on 4G networks – 4G adoption will peak in the coming years before falling as consumers migrate to next-generation mobile services;
  • China is set to become one of the world’s leading 5G markets with 460 million 5G connections forecast by 2025, which would account for 28 percent of China’s total connections by this point;
  • The RMB5.2 trillion ($750 billion) economic contribution by China’s mobile ecosystem in 2018 is forecast to grow to RMB6 trillion ($870 billion) by 2023;
  • China’s mobile ecosystem, directly and indirectly, supported 8.5 million jobs in 2018 and made a tax contribution to the public finances of government of RMB583 billion ($84 billion).
  • The number of licensed cellular IoT connections in China stood at 672 million at the end of 2018, supporting various industrial and smart cities applications.

The new report ‘The Mobile Economy China 2019’ is authored by GSMA Intelligence, the research arm of the GSMA.

“Our new report outlines how China’s mobile industry has been a key driver of economic growth, inclusion and modernisation – creating a new generation of digital consumers and transforming industry and society,” said Mats Granryd, Director General of the GSMA. “After spending billions over the last decade deploying 4G networks to all corners of the country, Chinese mobile operators are now set to invest a further RMB401 billion ($58 billion) over the next two years to prepare for and begin 5G rollouts, laying the groundwork for China to become one of the world’s leading 5G markets.”



https://www.gsma.com/r/mobileeconomy/china/

Monday, March 18, 2019

IDC: Worldwide server market remains robust

Vendor revenue in the worldwide server market increased 12.6% year over year to $23.6 billion during the fourth quarter of 2018 (4Q18), according to a new report from IDC. Worldwide server shipments increased 5.0% year over year to just under 3.0 million units in 4Q18.

"Reduced demand from hyperscale companies created downward pressure on worldwide server market growth rates during the quarter," said Sebastian Lagana, research manager, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "This was offset by increased server sales to enterprise customers and higher average selling prices (ASPs). Enterprises are buying richly configured servers to support resource intensive workloads, resulting in higher ASPs and pushing revenue growth higher than growth from unit shipments."



Highlights:

  • The overall server market continues to experience robust demand with 4Q18 marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth and its highest total revenue in a single quarter ever. 
  • Volume server revenue increased by 17.8% to $19.0 billion, while midrange server revenue grew 30.3% to $2.5 billion. High-end systems declined 28.3% to $2.1 billion.
  • Tied for the number one position in the worldwide server market during 4Q18 were Dell Inc., at 18.7% revenue share, and HPE/New H3C Group, with 17.8% revenue share, growing 20.4% and 10.5% year to year respectively. 
  • IBM was the third-ranked server supplier during the quarter capturing 8.3% of total server revenues. IBM's performance during the quarter excludes sales generated through the company's recently established partnership with Inspur Power Systems. 
  • Inspur/Inspur Power Systems and Lenovo tied for fourth with revenue shares of 6.6% and 6.2% respectively. Inspur/Inspur Power Systems increased its revenue 70.7% year over year and Lenovo increased its revenue 33.8% year over year. The ODM Direct group of vendors accounted for 20.1% of total revenue, up 11.6% year over year to $4.7 billion. This was an uncharacteristically low growth rate for this group of companies. 
  • Dell led the worldwide server market in terms of unit shipments, accounting for 19.4% of all units shipped during the quarter. 

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44905719


Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Vertical Systems: 2018 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD

AT&T ranks first on Vertical Systems Group's 2018 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD, followed by Colt, CenturyLink, BT Global and Orange, Verizon, and NTT.

The Global Provider LEADERBOARD ranks companies that hold a 4% or higher share of billable retail ports at sites outside of their respective home countries.

Share margins continue to narrow among the leading global service providers in this very competitive market segment. Latest share results show a major shakeup in the rankings for the top five companies as compared to year-end 2017, with each in a new position on the 2018 Global Provider LEADERBOARD.

"Multinational customers are massively upgrading bandwidth and expanding connectivity to cloud services and data centers. Ethernet providers with extensive global fiber footprints that deeply serve strategic business hubs are capturing a large portion of this new business," said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group.

Year-End 2018 Global Provider Segment Highlights:

  • AT&T holds first position, which it initially attained by surpassing Orange Business at mid-2018. AT&T ranked second at the end of 2017.
  • Colt ranks second, up from third position in 2017.
  • CenturyLink is in third position. The company ranked fourth at year-end 2017 when it initially entered the top tier following its merger with Level 3.
  • BT Global Services is fourth, as compared to fifth in 2017.
  • Orange Business holds fifth position. The company previously held first position on every year-end Global Provider LEADERBOARD between 2009 and 2017.
  • GTT is a new entrant to the Challenge Tier, advancing from the Market Player tier for the first time.
More: https://www.verticalsystems.com/2019/03/12/2018-global-ethernet-leaderboard/

Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Vertical Systems': Incumbent carriers most U.S. retail Ethernet ports

CenturyLink, AT&T, Verizon, Windstream and Frontier have gained a position on the 2018 U.S. Incumbent Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD, according to Vertical Systems Group's latest research.

The Incumbent Carrier LEADERBOARD, which ranks incumbents in order based on U.S. retail Ethernet port share for this segment, is an industry benchmark for measuring Ethernet market presence. To qualify for the 2018 U.S. Incumbent Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD, companies must have either a top rank or a Challenge Tier citation on the 2018 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD.

Some highlights:

  • CenturyLink, AT&T, Verizon and Windstream each hold a top rank on the 2018 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD. Frontier has a Challenge Tier citation for 2018.
  • The Incumbent Carrier segment accounted for more than half of the 1.1+ million retail Ethernet customer ports installed in the U.S. at the end of 2018.
  • Incumbent Carrier is one of three U.S. provider segments, along with the Competitive Provider and Cable MSO segments. Incumbent Carriers are facilities-based telecom companies, including IXC and LEC providers.

Other companies in the Incumbent Carrier segment selling retail Ethernet services in the U.S. market include the following (in alphabetical order): Alaska Communications, Cincinnati Bell, TDS Telecom and other local and regional incumbents.

Research sources for share calculations include Vertical Systems Group's base of enterprise installations, plus direct input from biannual surveys of network operators selling Ethernet network services.

Detailed Ethernet share results that power the Year-End 2018 U.S. Ethernet Segment LEADERBOARDs are available now exclusively to ENS Research Program subscribers. For more information Contact Us.



Dell'Oro: Double digit growth for WLAN market in Q4

Double-digit growth characterizes Wireless LAN (WLAN) market in 4Q and full-year 2018, despite a soft China, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. China sees a comeback in 4Q 2018, particularly Huawei.

"The growth of the WLAN market in 4Q and full-year 2018 came primarily from a surge in North America as users refreshed networks with 802.11ac Wave2 products, and opted for extra applications such as higher levels of security, location finding, and cloud-managed," said Ritesh Patel, WLAN analyst at Dell'Oro Group. "We predict 2019 sales to accelerate as WiFi 6 shifts from an early shipment phase to widespread availability, and vendors bring more applications to market targeted at specific verticals," added Patel.

Other findings in the report include:

  • Huawei reported a seasonally strong 4Q, a remarkable comeback after its low in 1H 2018 when Chinese Service Providers stopped deploying WLAN in mobile environments.
  • We predict the WLAN market to enter a period when revenue growth out paces unit growth as users opt for higher-featured, higher-priced WiFi 6 products, and applications deployed via cloud-managed license subscriptions.
  • During 2018, cloud managed subscription license revenue eclipsed hardware revenue.
  • SOHO Wireless Router sales rose 20% during 2018, driven by Whole Home Mesh.

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Crehan: 100GbE Data Center Switch Shipments passed 40GbE in '18

Customer adoption of 100 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) and 25GbE data center switches increased significantly in 2018, with shipments of each technology more than doubling year-over-year, according to the latest report from Crehan Research Inc.

This increase drove the overall data center Ethernet switch market to its strongest shipment growth since 2015 as well as to record revenue results. Furthermore, as shown in the accompanying figure, annual 100GbE data center switch port shipments surpassed those of 40GbE, a transition that has occurred approximately just three years after initial high-density 100GbE switch silicon-based systems started production shipments.

“10GbE and 40GbE data center switch shipments each declined in 2018, while 25GbE and 100GbE continued to grow significantly, signaling that we are now solidly in the 100/25GbE era,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Because of its compelling
value propositions, this modern data center architecture is now being widely deployed across public, private, and hybrid cloud data centers to handle a broad and diverse set of application workloads.”

Other noteworthy results from Crehan’s data center switch report include:

  • Overall market average selling prices were (once again) very stable in 2018. In fact, over the past four years, overall data center Ethernet switch market average selling prices have fallen by less than five percent in total.
  • Cisco accounted for about half of total branded data center Ethernet switch revenues in 2018, driven by very strong customer adoption of its Nexus 9000 series 100GbE and 25GbE data center
  • switching products.
  • Arista gained the most data center Ethernet switch revenue and shipment share in 2018, picking up three share points in both of those areas.
  • Despite a significant slowdown in 4Q18, both Huawei and H3C also had annual data center Ethernet switch share gains in 2018.
  • Although total 10GbE data center switch shipments declined in 2018, 10GBASE-T shipments continued to grow, even with weakness in this segment in the latter half of the year.
  • “The wide deployment of 100GbE switching, with an annualized port shipment run-rate now approaching the tens of millions, sets a very solid foundation for the upcoming 400GbE ramp likely starting in the second half of this year," Crehan said. 

Optical Time Domain Reflectometer (OTDR) Market Forecast

The worldwide use of handheld Optical Time Domain Reflectometer (OTDR) and associated devices reached $407.33 million in 2018, up from $397.8 million in 2017, according to a new study published by  ElectroniCast Consultants, a leading market and technology research consultancy addressing the fiber optics communications industry. An Optical Time Domain Reflectometer (OTDR) is a fiber optic test instrument used as a troubleshooting device to find faults in the optical fiber link.

Some highlights:

  • Telecommunications reached $289.63 million, representing a 72.5 percent market share, last year.
  • The Cable TV sector is forecast to increase in volume (quantity/number of units) at over 5% annually during the forecast period (2018-2028).  
  • The consumption value of OTDRs in the Private Networks is forecast for very impressive “double-digit” annual growth over most of the next 10-years, due to the increase in optical fiber deployment in LANs (local area networks), campus (LAN extension inter-building, LAN-to-LAN and redundant lines), and (very large) Data Centers (DCs), driven by critical high-speed data applications. 

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Dell’Oro: Cable infrastructure investments to hit $2B by 2023

Investments in cable infrastructure is projected to reach $2 billion by 2023, according to a newly published report by Dell’Oro Group.

“Global cable operators are investing heavily in distributed access architectures to make their networks more efficient, offer premium bandwidth, and stay ahead of fiber-based competitors,” noted Jeff Heynen, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Today’s investments in DAAs will prepare cable operators for a future of 10 Gbps services using a combination of extended spectrum DOCSIS, full duplex DOCSIS 3.1 and, ultimately, fiber to the home,” continued Heynen.

Additional highlights from the Broadband Access 5-Year Forecast Report:
  • Sales of cable broadband access equipment will increase from $1.5 billion in 2019 to $2 billion in 2023, driven by spending on remote PHY and MACPHY devices, as well as virtual CCAP platforms. Spending on cable equipment will grow faster than PON equipment over the same period.
  • XGS-PON will outpace NG-PON2 deployments throughout our forecast period, owing to lower component and equipment costs.
  • VDSL Profile 35b and Gfast will offset some—not all of the revenue loss from declining ADSL port shipments. Some major Gfast deployments are already seeing signs of shrinking, as governments lobby operators to increase their investments in fiber.

Sunday, February 10, 2019

Gartner: Top 3 chip buyers are Samsung, Apple, Huawei

Samsung Electronics and Apple were once again the top two semiconductor chip buyers in 2018, according to a new report from Gartner, and together represent 17.9 percent of the total worldwide market.

Buying by Samsung and Apple slowed in 2018 but spending by Huawei accelerated, pushing it to number 3 amongst semiconductor purchasers.

“Four Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) — Huawei, Lenovo, BBK Electronics and Xiaomi — ranked in the top 10 in 2018, up from three in 2017. On the other hand, Samsung Electronics and Apple both significantly slowed the growth of their chip spending in 2018,” said Masatsune Yamaji, senior principal analyst at Gartner. “Huawei increased its chip spending by 45 percent, jumping in front of Dell and Lenovo to the third spot.”

Some highlights from Gartner:
  • Eight of the top 10 companies in 2017 remained in the top 10 in 2018, with Kingston Technology and Xiaomi replacing LG Electronics and Sony. 
  • Xiaomi rose eight places to the 10th position, increasing its semiconductor spending by $2.7 billion in 2018, a 63 percent growth year over year.
  • Semiconductor spending by the top 10 OEMs increased significantly, and their share reached 40.2 percent of the total semiconductor market in 2018, up from 39.4 percent in 2017. 
  • Gartner predicts that the share of total memory chip revenue in the total semiconductor market will be 33 percent in 2019 and 34 percent in 2020, higher than its 31 percent share in 2017.

Dell'Oro: Huawei led in Network Equipment Services for 2018

Cumulative revenue for Network Equipment Services to service providers is projected to range between $200 and $250 billion over the next five years, according to a new report from Dell’Oro Group.

The top four vendors comprise more than 80 percent of the market.

  • Huawei had the highest market share since 2016, over 30 percent in 2018.
  • Huawei’s services share improved more than 70 percent between 2013 and 2017.
  • Professional services such as consulting are projected to grow at the fastest pace over the forecast period, however, Network Rollout will remain the largest segment.

“While we envision that the coupling between equipment and services will remain strong for product attached services, we are increasingly optimistic about the role non-product attached services will play to help operators navigate the network of tomorrow,” said Stefan Pongratz, Director of Network Equipment Services Research at Dell’Oro Group. “We believe that network complexity will dramatically increase in the future as service providers strive to incorporate SDN/NFV and deliver new products related to IoT and 5G. As a result, we believe the software component of networks and the amount of Services will be larger in the future,” continued Pongratz.

http://www.delloro.com/news/network-equipment-services-revenue-approach-250-billion-next-five-years

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Cignal AI: Coherent Port Pricing Trends

The cost of coherent optical ports continues to drop steeply, according to a newly published report from Cignal AI using data from 3Q18. Trend analysis is provided based on past performance and future expectations as the industry migrates to fourth-generation solutions (400ZR).

Vendors included in the report are ADVA, Ciena, Cisco, Coriant, Fujitsu, Huawei, Infinera, Nokia, and ZTE. All vendors tracked in the report shipped 200G-capable optics last year.


Other findings in the 3Q18 Coherent Port Pricing Trends Report include:

  • Prices for 100G equivalent coherent optical ports have dropped exponentially.
  • The cost of deploying new coherent bandwidth has been CapEx neutral.
  • The trend toward lower prices and converging component costs benefits vertically integrated vendors long term.
https://cignal.ai/2019/01/coherent-port-pricing-trends-report-3q18

Monday, January 28, 2019

Gartner: Global IT spending to rise 3.2% in 2019

Gartner is predicting that worldwide IT spending will rise to $3.76 trillion in 2019, an increase of 3.2 percent from 2018.

Some highlights:

  • Spending on data center systems is predicted to grow 4.2%\
  • Spending on communication services will be flattish at 1.3%
  • Enterprise software, driven by a shift to the cloud, will continue to exhibit strong growth, with worldwide software spending projected to grow 8.5 percent in 2019. It will grow another 8.2 percent in 2020 to total $466 billion.
  • The mobile devices segment is expected to grow 1.6 percent in 2019. The largest and most highly saturated smartphone markets, such as China, Unites States and Western Europe, are driven by replacement cycles. 

“Despite uncertainty fueled by recession rumors, Brexit, and trade wars and tariffs, the likely scenario for IT spending in 2019 is growth,” said John-David Lovelock, research vice president at Gartner. “However, there are a lot of dynamic changes happening in regards to which segments will be driving growth in the future. Spending is moving from saturated segments such as mobile phones, PCs and on-premises data center infrastructure to cloud services and Internet of Things (IoT) devices. IoT devices, in particular, are starting to pick up the slack from devices. Where the devices segment is saturated, IoT is not.
https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2019-01-28-gartner-says-global-it-spending-to-reach--3-8-trillio

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

IDC: LTE Router/Gateway market to hit $1.9 billion in 2022

The LTE router/gateway market will grow from approximately $804.2 million in 2018 to $1.9 billion in 2022 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4%, according to a new report from IDC. Regionally, North America will remain the largest consumer of LTE routers/gateways, but Asia/Pacific, including Japan and China, will grow the fastest over the forecast period supported by continued expansion and/or densification of macro LTE networks in the region.

"The enterprise LTE appliance market is seeing rapid uptake globally, prompting incumbent suppliers and new players to seek differentiation to demonstrate value. Some are focusing on the software layer, or wireless SD-WAN, while others are leaning on their technology heritage in addressing IoT requirements. Whatever the strategy, branch, mobile, and IoT are emerging as the three main use cases for LTE routers and gateways," said Patrick Filkins, senior research analyst, IoT and Mobile Network Infrastructure.

IDC highlights three main use cases that LTE router/gateway suppliers are moving to address:

  • Branch connectivity: Products designed for stationary, onsite functionality are often integrated with LTE, WiFi, and wired functionality. In addition, solutions often incorporate enhanced security features (e.g., firewall, threat management). An overarching software-defined component, often delivered from the cloud, can be incorporated to deliver enhanced management and coordination.
  • Mobile connectivity: Mobile LTE routers are often affixed to vehicles, rail systems, or other "on the move objects" that require connectivity. An emerging use case is for public safety networks, including first-responder networks, where cellular connectivity can meet the stringent demand for mission-critical communications.
  • Internet of Things/M2M: These solutions, which can be gateways, often offer a base feature such as protocol conversion but may incorporate the advanced features included in branch and mobile solutions as well.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=US44528618

IDC: 5G network infrastructure market to grow at 118% CAGR

The worldwide 5G network infrastructure market is expected to grow from approximately $528 million in 2018 to $26 billion in 2022, according to IDC's inaugural forecast for this market segment, and representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 118%.

The 5G network infrastructure market includes 5G RAN, 5G NG core, NFVI, routing and optical backhaul.

IDC expects 5G RAN to be the largest market sub-segment through the forecast period, in line with prior mobile generations.

In addition to 5G NR and 5G NG core, procurement patterns indicate communications service providers (SPs) will need to invest in adjacent domains, including backhaul and NFVI, to support the continued push to cloud-native, software-led architectures.

"Early 5G adopters are laying the groundwork for long-term success by investing in 5G RAN, NFVI, optical underlays, and next-generation routers and switches. Many are also in the process of experimenting with the 5G NG core. The long-term benefit of making these investments now will be when the standards-compliant SA 5G core is combined with a fully virtualized, cloud-ready RAN in the early 2020s. This development will enable many communications SPs to expand their value proposition and offer customized services across a diverse set of enterprise verticals through the use of network slicing," says Patrick Filkins, senior research analyst, IoT and Mobile Network Infrastructure.

The report, Worldwide 5G Network Infrastructure Forecast, 2018-2022 (IDC #US44392218), presents IDC's inaugural forecast for the 5G network infrastructure market. Revenue is forecast for both the 5G RAN and 5G NG Core segments and each of the three related sub-segments (NFVI, Routing Backhaul, and Optical Backhaul). The report also provides a market overview, including drivers and challenges for communications service providers and advice for technology suppliers.

Monday, January 21, 2019

Dell'Oro: 5G RAN investment to approach $160 billion in 5 years

Robust demand for 5G NR will propel the cumulative worldwide RAN market to approach $160 B over the next five years, according to a new forecast report from Dell'Oro Group.

Other highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • 5G NR will scale at a significantly faster pace than LTE.
  • Sub 6 GHz spectrum is expected to drive the lion share of the RAN capex (Figure 1)
  • New capex to address IoT, Fixed Wireless Access, In-Building, and Public Safety opportunities for both private and public deployments will comprise a double-digit share of the RAN market by the outer part of the forecast period.
  • Sub 6 GHz Massive MIMO transceiver shipments are projected to eclipse 200 million.

“Even if 5G will be just another G initially, the reality is that for the carriers with the right spectrum assets, the mid-band Massive MIMO business case can be extremely compelling for the MBB use case,” said Stefan Pongratz, analyst with the Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, we are more optimistic today about the mmW opportunity than we were a year ago. But clearly it will take some with the current inter-site distances before the cost per GB economics will be as favorable with the mmW spectrum as the mid-band sub 6 GHz spectrum using the existing macro grid and Massive MIMO,” continued Pongratz.

http://www.delloro.com/5-year-forecast-report/robust-5g-nr-growth-propels-total-ran-investments-toward-160-b

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Gartner: Worldwide semiconductor revenue was up 13.4% in 2018

Worldwide semiconductor revenue totaled $476.7 billion in 2018, a 13.4 percent increase from 2017, according to preliminary results by Gartner.

“The largest semiconductor supplier, Samsung Electronics, increased its lead as the No. 1 vendor due to the booming DRAM market,” said Andrew Norwood, Vice President, Analyst at Gartner. “While 2018 continued to build on the growth established in 2017, the overall gains driven by memory were at half the 2017 growth rate. This is attributed to memory entering a downturn late in 2018.”

Some highlights from Gartner:

  • The combined revenue of the top 25 semiconductor vendors increased by 16.3 percent during 2018 and accounted for 79.3 percent of the market, outperforming the rest of the market, which saw a milder 3.6 percent revenue increase. This is due to the concentration of the memory vendors in the top-25 ranking.
  • In terms of semiconductor devices, memory was simultaneously the largest (35 percent) and highest-performing device category for 2018 with 27.2 percent revenue growth. This was driven by increases in ASP for DRAM for much of the year with the exception of the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • Intel’s semiconductor revenue grew by 12.2 percent compared with 2017, driven by a combination of unit and average selling price (ASP) growth. 
  • Major memory vendors that performed strongly in 2018 include SK hynix — driven by DRAM, and Microchip Technology — due to its acquisition of Microsemi. The top four vendors in 2017 retained their ranking in 2018.
  • Within the memory segment, NAND flash suffered a marked slowdown with ASP declines through much of the year due to oversupply. This device category still managed to show a 6.5 percent revenue increase, driven by higher adoption of solid-state drives (SSDs) and increasing content in smartphones.
  • The second-largest semiconductor category, application-specific-standard products (ASSPs), saw limited growth of 5.1 percent due to a stalling smartphone market combined with a tablet market that continues to decline. Leading vendors in this segment area, including Qualcomm and MediaTek, are aggressively expanding into adjacent markets with stronger prospects for growth, including automotive and IoT applications.
  • “2019 will be a very different market from the previous two years,” said Mr. Norwood. “Memory has already entered a downturn, there is the looming trade war between the U.S. and China, and mounting uncertainty about the global economy.”


https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2019-01-07-gartner-says-worldwide-semiconductor-revenue-grew-13-

Thursday, January 10, 2019

IDC: Cloud infrastructure spending surged 47% yoy in 3Q18

Vendor revenue from sales of IT infrastructure products (server, enterprise storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud environments, including public and private cloud, grew 47.2% year over year in the third quarter of 2018 (3Q18), reaching $16.8 billion, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker.

IDC also raised its forecast for total spending (vendor revenue plus channel mark-up) on cloud IT infrastructure in 2018 to $65.2 billion with year-over-year growth of 37.2%.

"The first three quarters of 2018 were exceptional for the IT Infrastructure market across all deployment environments and the increase in IT infrastructure investments by public cloud datacenters was especially strong driven by the opening of new datacenters and infrastructure refresh in existing datacenters," said Natalya Yezhkova, research director, IT Infrastructure and Platforms. "After such a strong year we expect some slowdown in 2019 as the overall market cools down and some cloud providers work through adjustments in their supply chain. However, IDC expects the shift in IT infrastructure spending toward cloud environments will continue."

Some highlights from IDC:

  • Quarterly spending on public cloud IT infrastructure has more than doubled in the past two years reaching $12.1 billion in 3Q18 and growing 56.1% year over year, while spending on private cloud infrastructure grew at half of this rate, 28.3%, reaching $4.7 billion. Since 2013, when IDC started tracking IT infrastructure deployments in different environments, public cloud has represented the majority of spending on cloud IT infrastructure and in 2018 IDC expects this share will peak at 68.8% with spending on public cloud infrastructure growing at an annual rate of 44.7%. Spending on private cloud will grow 23.3% year over year in 2018.
  • In 3Q18, for the first time, quarterly vendor revenues from IT infrastructure product sales into cloud environments surpassed revenues from sales into traditional IT environments, accounting for 50.9% of the total worldwide IT infrastructure vendor revenues, up from 43.6% a year ago. However, for the full year 2018, spending on cloud IT infrastructure will remain below the 50% mark at 47.4%. Spending on all three technology segments in cloud IT environments is forecast to deliver double-digit growth in 2018. Compute platforms will be the fastest growing at 59.1%, while spending on Ethernet switches and storage platforms will grow 18.5% and 20.4%, respectively.
  • The rate of growth for the traditional (non-cloud) IT infrastructure segment slowed down from the first half of the year to 14.8%, which is still exceptional for this market segment. For the full year, worldwide spending on traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure is expected to grow by 12.3% as the market goes through a technology refresh cycle, which will wind down by 2019. By 2022, we expect that traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure will only represent 42.4% of total worldwide IT infrastructure spending (down from 52.6% in 2018). This share loss and the growing share of cloud environments in overall spending on IT infrastructure is common across all regions.
  • All regions grew their cloud IT Infrastructure revenues by double digits in 3Q18. Revenue growth was the fastest in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) at 62.6% year over year, with China growing at an even higher rate of 88.7%. Other regions among the fastest growing in 3Q18 included Japan (48.2%), USA (44.2%), and Canada (43.4%).
  • Long-term, IDC expects spending on cloud IT infrastructure to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3%, reaching $88.6 billion in 2022 and accounting for 57.6% of total IT infrastructure spend. Public cloud datacenters will account for 66.3% of this amount, growing at an 13.6% CAGR. Spending on private cloud infrastructure will grow at a CAGR of 12.6%.


Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Ovum: 1.3 billion connections by the end of 2023

Global mobile connections will total ten billion by 2023 according to forecasts provided by Ovum and published by 5G Americas. Also, by the end of 2023, global 5G connections are expected to reach 1.3 billion, an industry trade organization composed of leading telecommunications service providers and manufacturers.

“Growth of LTE is unabated, as LTE added 239 million connections worldwide in the third quarter of 2018,” stated Kristin Paulin, Senior Analyst, Ovum. “Ovum forecasts that LTE will continue to grow well into 2022 and we will see a decline in subscriptions beginning around 2023 due to 5G growth. Regardless, GSM, HSPA and LTE will still be deployed worldwide in 2023.”



Some highlights from Ovum and 5G Americas:

North America

  • North America’s strong leadership in LTE will be replaced with early 5G connections building in 2019 and is forecast to reach 186 million 5G connections by 2023 for a 32 percent share of market.
  • Ovum forecasts 336 thousand 5G connections in North America by the end of 2019 representing 47 percent of total global 5G connections.
  • LTE achieved a penetration rate of 107 percent with 390 million LTE connections as of third quarter 2018, compared to the population of 365 million in North America. This penetration rate compares to the next two highest regions, Oceania, Eastern and Southeastern Asia at 87 percent and Western Europe at 71 percent.
  • 390 million LTE connections for net gain of 51 million new LTE customers year-over-year  
  • LTE is forecast to peak at about 473 million connections at the end of 2020 (including M2M)
  • 32 million 5G connections forecast in 2021 – 6 percent of all North American connections -- growing to 186 million 5G connections in 2023 and 32 percent of all North America connections

Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Latin America and the Caribbean continues steady growth of LTE connections and is forecast to reach more than half a billion LTE subscriptions by 2022.  
  • LTE continued its healthy growth with market share increasing from 26 percent to 37 percent year-over-year at the end of September 2018. 
  • 698 million total mobile wireless subscriptions including 257 million LTE connections; 78 million new LTE connections added year-over-year from 3Q 2017 and 17.5 million new LTE connections in 3Q alone
  • By the end of 2022, LTE is forecast to reach 510 million connections (forecast includes M2M) and a 67 percent share of market with total number of connections reaching 767 million


Global

  • Forecasts for LTE continue to show very positive growth with milestones of nearly 4 billion at end of 2018; more than 5 billion by 2020; and about 6 billion in 2022 at which time LTE growth will decline due to the mass market growth of 5G.  In 2023, LTE connections will decline to 5.7 billion when nearly 1 billion GSM connections and 2 billion HSPA connections will remain.
  • 5G will trend upwards beginning in 2019 with less than 1 million global connections; by 2020, this will grow to 37 million and then more than quadruple to 156 million in 2021; by 2022, 5G connections will exceed 500 million and the 2023 forecast puts 5G global connections at 1.3 billion.
  • 972 million new LTE subscriptions year-over-year from 3Q 2017; 35 percent growth
  • 3.7 billion LTE connections out of a total 8.45 billion cellular connections worldwide; worldwide market share for LTE is 44 percent   
  • LTE connections forecast to reach 6 billion by year-end 2022 (forecast includes M2M)
  • LTE global market share forecast to reach 61percent by year end 2022
  • 5G is forecast to reach 1.3 billion connections by the end of 2023


http://www.5gamericas.org/en/

Sunday, December 16, 2018

IDC: Worldwide Industry Cloud revenue to reach $6.1 billion in 2018

Five large industry groups, including healthcare, public sector, finance, retail/wholesale, and manufacturing, are expected to spend a total of $37.5 billion on industry cloud solutions in 2018, according to the Worldwide Semiannual Industry Cloud Tracker from International Data Corporation (IDC). The report forecasts the overall market to reach $45.4 billion in 2019.

"IDC's latest forecast shows that industry cloud growth rates will continue to accelerate over the next three years, which is very unusual for multi-billion-dollar markets. This growth is being driven by rapidly-digitizing industries like healthcare, financial services, and manufacturing, where industry clouds are becoming the cornerstones for next-generation growth and innovation strategies," said Frank Gens, senior vice president & chief analyst at IDC.

Some highlights:

  • the U.S. will make up close to three-quarters of the overall market in 2018. 
  • Japan and China expected to grow the most year over year at 54% and 47% respectively. 
  • Other regions will also outperform their 2018 growth rates.
  • The healthcare provider market in the U.S. is expected to pass the $10 billion mark in 2018 for the first time while the Western Europe market for healthcare industry cloud is also forecast to hit a landmark in 2018 by crossing the $1 billion mark. 
  • Relative to all other regions, Japan can be considered a late adopter to industry cloud deploymen but will pass the $1 billion mark by 2022. 
  • China will pass the $1 billion mark by 2022. 


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44551518

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

IDC: Ethernet switch market up 8.1%; Router market down 5.1% in 3Q18

The Worldwide Ethernet switch market (Layer 2/3) recorded $7.3 billion in revenue in 3Q18, an increase of 8.1% YoY, while total enterprise and service provider (SP) router market revenues declined 5.1% YoY in 3Q18 to $3.7 billion, according to IDC's Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and IDC Quarterly Router Tracker.

"Digital Transformation and adoption of Third Platform technologies continue to drive demand for network transformation and in turn the Ethernet switching equipment market," said Rohit Mehra, vice president, Network Infrastructure, at IDC. "While hyperscalers and cloud service providers are pushing consumption at the high end of the switching market, there remains strong growth in the enterprise campus and lower speed switching platforms too, highlighting the increased demands of the network from organizations of all sizes."



Some highlights from IDC:

  • 100Gb Ethernet switch revenues continue to grow rapidly. Port shipments for 100Gb switches rose 154.6% year over year to 3.5 million. 
  • 100Gb revenues broke the $1 billion barrier in 3Q18, reaching $1.1 billion to make up 14.8% of the market's total revenue. 
  • 25Gb ports saw even higher growth rates with port shipments up 251.0% to 2.6 million and revenue increasing 219.6% year over year for 3.7% of the market's revenue. 
  • 40Gb port shipments rose too, growing 12.6% year over year to 1.3 million, while revenues declined 10.4% for 7.5% of the market's total. 
  • Lower-speed campus switches continued to see strong demand. 
  • 10Gb port shipments rose 16.0% year over year to make up 28.8% of the market's revenue. 
  • 1Gb switches saw port shipments grow 8.4% year over year to 116.4 million, representing 42.3% of the market's total revenues.
  • The worldwide enterprise and service provider router market fell by 5.1% on a year-over-year basis in 3Q18 with the major service provider segment, which accounts for 76.2% of revenues, declining by 7.3%. 
  • The enterprise portion of the router market grew 2.5% year over year. 
  • From a regional perspective, the combined service provider and enterprise router market declined 24.4% in the U.S., where service provider revenues dropped 31.5% while enterprise revenues grew 8.7%. 
  • Cisco finished 3Q18 with a 3.8% year-over-year increase in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 54.4%. In the hotly contested 25Gb/50Gb/100Gb segment, Cisco is the market leader with 39.4% revenue, which is up from the 34.6% share it held in this segment in the previous quarter. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue declined 2.2% year over year, with enterprise router revenue increasing 4.1% but service provider revenues declining 5.3%. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router market share increased to 42.7% from 35.7% last quarter.
  • Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue rose 21.3% on an annualized basis but was down 7.5% sequentially from 2Q18 to 3Q18 with market share of 8.6%. The company's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue rose 2.2% year over year with a market share of 23.5%.
  • Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues increase 27.6% in 3Q18, bringing its share to 6.6% of the total market, up from 5.6% a year earlier. With its focus on the datacenter, the company continues to cater to the higher end of Ethernet switch speeds with 100Gb revenues accounting for 66.1% of the company's total revenue, indicating the company's focus on cloud providers and large enterprises.
  • HPE's Ethernet switch revenue grew 12.0% year over year but was off 4.9% sequentially. The company's market share rose to 5.7%, up from 5.5% a year earlier.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue grew 3.8% in 3Q19, bringing its market share to 3.0%. Juniper saw a 15.2% decline in combined enterprise and service provider router sales, bringing its market share in the router market to 13.4%.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44527718

See also