Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Monday, June 18, 2018

FWD: World nears 8 billion mobile subscriptions

The total number of mobile subscriptions worldwide reached 7.9 billion in Q1 2018, up by 94 million in the quarter, according to the Ericsson Mobility Report, which would equate to a 104% penetration rate. Of course, the figure reflects multiple mobile subscriptions held by many individuals, thus accounting for the fact that hundreds of millions of people do not have mobile service for economic, geographic, or other reasons. Ericsson estimates that there are 5.3 billion people will mobile phones, accounting for the 7.9 billion subscriptions.

Meanwhile, 7 years after the launch of the first 4G services, there are now 5.5 billion mobile broadband subscriptions worldwide. Mobile broadband is growing at 20 percent year-on-year, increasing by 200 million in Q1 2018, however, 4G remains only a part of the overall mobile broadband market. The number of LTE subscriptions increased by 210 million during the quarter to reach a total of 2.9 billion. The net addition for WCDMA/HSPA was around 10 million subscriptions. Over the same period, GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions declined by 90 million. Other technologies declined by around 32 million.

Subscriptions associated with smartphones now account for around 60 percent of all mobile phone subscriptions. The number of smartphones sold declined to around 340 million in Q1, representing around 85 percent of all mobile phones sold in the quarter.

The June 2018 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report is essential reading for anyone tracking the telecoms arena.

https://www.ericsson.com/en/mobility-report/reports/june-2018




Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Dell:Oro: 802.11ax product delays slow enterprise WLAN market

Delays with the introduction of 802.11ax products is expected to slow the Enterprise Class-WLAN market growth in 2018, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

"Several manufacturers of Enterprise-class products are postponing general availability of 802.11ax access points as they wait for more advanced chipsets and further development of the standard," said Trent Dell’Oro, Business Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “In light of this news, we lowered our Enterprise-class access point forecast for 2018 by over six percent. We imagine the market may come in lower than we predicted, depending on the degree to which customers push out projects as they wait for the new technology. In addition, the delay in 802.11ax WLAN Access Points may affect the campus switching market refresh cycle,” added Dell’Oro.

Additional highlights from the 1Q18 Wireless LAN Quarterly Report:

  • Enterprise-class Wireless LAN market revenue rose five percent year-over-year on nine percent unit growth.
  • Some vendors plan to move forward with lower featured 802.11ax products as early as 3Q18 with full-featured, higher-priced products following in early-to-mid 2019.
  • The transition to Wave 2 picked up during the quarter following a three quarter lull. We expect this migration will extend through 2019.

http://www.delloro.com/

Thursday, June 7, 2018

Dell'Oro: Service Provider Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch market contracts

The Service Provider Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch market contracted year-over-year to its lowest level in five years in the first quarter of 2018, according to a recently published report from Dell'Oro Group.
 
The quarterly contraction sets the stage for the first annual market decline since 2012 as telecom and cloud service providers reduce spending on IP infrastructure.

"Over the past two years, the Asia-Pacific region has been a major growth engine for the router market, but in 1Q18, driven in part by saturation in the China telecom market, router demand experienced a sharp decline," said Shin Umeda, Vice President at Dell'Oro Group.  "The weaker China market, combined with price reductions and network architecture evolution in North America, gives us a recipe for a market pull-back in 2018," added Umeda.

Additional highlights from the 1Q18 Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch Quarterly Report:

  • Despite the market's revenue contraction, 100 Gigabit Ethernet port shipments grew more than 35% year-over-year.
  • Cisco was the top ranked vendor in 1Q18, followed by Huawei, Nokia, and Juniper. These four vendors accounted for more than 90 percent of the market revenue in 1Q18.

Wednesday, June 6, 2018

FWD: Huawei's Global Connectivity Index 2018

Cisco regularly publishes its Visual Networking Index and Ericsson does likewise with its Mobility Report -- both are well-regarded across the industry for their primary data and forecasts. Huawei is doing the same with its Global Connectivity Index, which is now in its fifth annual edition.

Huawei's Global Connectivity Index provides a big picture look at digital transformation and presents its data on a country-by-country basis.

This year, the GCI report provides a quantitative assessment of the digital health of 79 nations, ranking them by considering their progress in 5 technology enablers: broadband, data centers, cloud, Big Data, and IoT. There are four pillars: supply, demand, experience and potential. The study relies on expertise from inside of Huawei as well as outside the company, including in-depth interviews with top think tanks around the world, including digital strategy advisors, digital economy academics, and policymakers from the World Bank, MIT, Stanford University, and Singapore Infocomm Development Authority. Huawei argues that the long-term return on investment (ROI) for digital technologies is 6.7 times that of non-digital investments.

The biggest takeaway from the study is that the global digital economy could nearly double in size to $23 trillion by 2025 from $12.9 trillion in 2017, when it accounted for 17.1% of global GDP.

One outside observation is that a country's connectivity ranking is related to its GDP but not bound by it. Another is that Huawei's own remarkable performance in certain developing countries must certainly have helped to list their ranking but often not enough to push them into front-runner or even adopter status -- and for the U.S. market, which holds the No.1 spot on Huawei's Global Connectivity Index, the company is essentially locked out. 

Some highlights:
  • The U.S. continued to lead in ICT Infrastructure investment and held onto its top position in the rankings.
  • Singapore and Sweden trailed close behind the US, and over the past year closed the gap in rank with the US by two GCI points each. 
  • Qatar, China and Malaysia improved their GCI scores in part due to roll-outs of national ICT initiatives. 
  • The study identifies several countries seeing a drop in GCI rankings, mostly these nations are not yet investing, adopting and capturing the potential of advanced technologies including Cloud, Big Data and IoT.
  • The study finds growing inequality, an ICT version of the “Matthew Effect” – the sociology theory that states: “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.”


Huawei's Global Connectivity Index can be accessed here:
http://www.huawei.com/minisite/gci/en/


Monday, June 4, 2018

IDC: Worldwide Ethernet switch market gros 11% in Q1

The worldwide Ethernet switch market (Layer 2/3) recorded $6.29 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18), up 10.9% year over year, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and Worldwide Quarterly Router Tracker, while the worldwide total enterprise and service provider (SP) router market recorded $3.31 billion in revenue in 1Q18, a 1.4% decrease on a year-over-year basis.

"After modest gains in 2017, the Ethernet switch market started 2018 with a strong first quarter," said Rohit Mehra, vice president, Network Infrastructure at IDC. "There are two macro trends that contributed to growth: The emergence of next-generation software-based network intelligence platforms that add to the intrinsic value of networking, and the push by large enterprises, hyperscalers, and service providers to leverage faster Ethernet switching speeds for cloud rollouts. Both trends bode well for this industry moving forward."

Some highlights from IDC:

  • The 1Q18 Ethernet switch market recorded its strongest growth in the Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) region, which increased a solid 21.0% year over year. China had the region's most robust growth, rising 29.7% year over year to $769.8 million; Korea also posted strong 24.2% year-over-year growth. Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) was another standout region, growing 19.5%, with Poland up a strong 39.6% and the region's largest market, Russia, up 19.2%. The Middle East & Africa (MEA) region recorded 11.7% growth, while the United States, the world's largest market, was up 7.0% year over year to $2.44 billion. The Latin America (LA) region's growth continued to lag, up only 1.2%. Japan, meanwhile, dropped 2.0% year over year.
  • 10Gb Ethernet switch (Layer 2/3) revenue increased 5.1%, coming in at $2.05 billion, while 10Gb Ethernet port shipments rose 41.6%. 
  • 40Gb Ethernet revenues were down 4.0% despite port shipments increasing 7.8%, reflecting ongoing price erosion in the market and unfavorable price performance ratios relative to 25Gb and 100Gb products. 
  • 25Gb revenue increased 176% year over year with port shipments growing 359% year over year in 1Q18. 
  • 100Gb revenue increased 83.8% year over year to $742.5 million and port shipments grew 117.7% year over year in 1Q18. 
  • 1Gb Ethernet revenues were up 5.4% in the quarter, with port shipments up 15.8%, which reverses a trend from last year and shows the interest in refreshing campus and branch networks. 
  • Overall, across all speeds, port shipments in 1Q18 rose 12.0% year over year.
  • Cisco finished 1Q18 with a year-over-year increase of 7.6% in Ethernet switching revenues and a market share of 53.4%, down from its 55.0% share in 1Q17 and down from 58.9% in 1Q16. 
  • Huawei continued to perform well in both the Ethernet switch and the router markets on an annualized basis. Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue grew 41.2% year over year in 1Q18 for a market share of 8.1%, up from 6.3% in 1Q17. Hewlett Packard Enterprise's (HPE) Ethernet switch revenue grew 11.1% from 1Q17 to 1Q18 and its market share held steady at 6.0% during that time.
  • Arista Networks performed well in 1Q18, with its Ethernet switching revenue rising 39.9% year over year, earning a market share of 6.5%, up from 5.1% in 1Q17.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue fell 4.8% year over year in 1Q18, bringing its market share to 3.7% compared to 4.3% in 1Q17. Juniper also saw a 21.8% decrease in combined service provider and enterprise router revenues, with market share falling to 12.3% compared to 15.5% in 1Q17.

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS43900818

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

IDC: Worldwide server market surges 39% yoy in Q1

Vendor revenue in the worldwide server market increased 38.6%, year over year to $18.8 billion during the first quarter of 2018 (1Q18), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker. Worldwide server shipments increased 20.7% year over year to 2.7 million units in 1Q18.

IDC said the growth is driven by a market-wide enterprise refresh cycle, strong demand from cloud service providers, increased use of servers as the core building blocks for software-defined infrastructure, broad demand for newer CPUs such as Intel's Purely platform, and growing deployments of next-generation workloads.

"Hyperscale growth continued to drive server volume demand in the first quarter," said Sanjay Medvitz, senior research analyst, Servers and Storage at IDC. "While various OEMs are finding success in this space, ODMs remain the primary beneficiary from the quickly growing hyperscale server demand, now accounting for roughly a quarter of overall server market revenue and shipments."

Some key findings cited by IDC:

  • Revenue in the worldwide server market increased 38.6% year over year to $18.8 billion while shipments grew 20.7% to 2.7 million units during the first quarter of 2018.
  • 1Q18 marks the third consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
  • Average selling prices (ASPs) increased during the quarter due to richer configurations and increased component costs. The increased ASPs also contributed to revenue growth.
  • Volume server revenue increased by 40.9% to $15.9 billion, while midrange server revenue grew 34% to $1.7 billion. High-end systems grew 20.1% to $1.2 billion.
  • Dell Inc. and HPE/New H3C Group were statistically tied for first in the worldwide server market with 19.1%, and 18.6% market shares respectively in 1Q18. 
  • Dell was the fastest growing server vendor among the top 5 companies, growing revenue 50.6% year over year to $3.6 billion and gaining 1.5 points of revenue share year over year on a strong performance in all major geographic regions. 
  • HPE/New H3C Group revenue increased 22.6% year over year in 1Q18 to $3.5 billion. HPE's share and year-over-year growth rate include revenues from the H3C joint venture in China that began in May of 2016; thus, the reported HPE/New H3C Group combines server revenue for both companies globally. 
  • Lenovo, IBM, and Cisco were all statistically tied for the third position in the market with respective shares of 5.8%, 5.3%, and 5.2%. 
  • The ODM Direct group of vendors grew revenue by 57.1% (year over year) to $4.6 billion. 
  • Dell Inc. led the worldwide server market in terms of unit shipments, accounting for 20.6% of all units shipped during the quarter.


Monday, May 21, 2018

IDC forecasts semiconductor growth of 7.7%, reaching $450B in 2018

IDC is predicting that worldwide semiconductor revenue will grow for the third consecutive year in 2018 to $450 billion, up 7.7% over 2017, down from 24% in 2017.

IDC's new Semiconductor Applications Forecaster (SAF) also forecasts that semiconductor revenues will log a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.9% from 2017-2022, reaching $482 billion in 2022.

"Market consolidation in the semiconductor industry over the past five years continues to shape the competitive landscape for semiconductor suppliers as each company continues to refine its core markets and make acquisitions to find new and emerging sectors for growth. The pace of change and technology is expected to accelerate as machine learning and autonomous systems enable a more diverse set of architectures to address the opportunity. This will fuel the engine of growth for semiconductor technology over the next decade," said Mario Morales, program vice president, Semiconductors at IDC.

Some key findings from IDC's Semiconductor Application Forecaster (excluding memory) include:


  • Semiconductor revenue for the computing industry segment will decline 4.0% this year and will show a negative CAGR of -0.7% for the 2017-2022 forecast period. Two bright spots for the computing segment are computing and enterprise SSDs, growing in high double digits and 9.8% CAGR respectively for 2017-2022.
  • Semiconductor revenue for the mobile wireless communications segment will grow 5.5% year over year this year with a CAGR of 5.8% for 2017-2022. Semiconductor revenue for 4G mobile phones will experience an annual growth rate of 10.9% in 2018 and a CAGR of 3.1% for 2017-2022. 5G will also drive growth in the later part of the forecast as the technology becomes mainstream by the middle of the next decade.
  • Communications infrastructure semiconductors are forecast to grow at a 1.7% CAGR from 2017-2022 with the strongest growth coming from consumer networks.
  • The automotive market and the industrial markets will continue to be the leading areas of growth for the semiconductor market throughout the forecast period, growing at a 9.6% and 6.8% CAGR from 2017-2022. 

Dell'Oro: Microwave transmission market revenue grew 9% in Q1

The microwave transmission market grew 9% in 1Q 2018 compared to the previous year period, according to new research from Dell'Oro Group. NEC outperformed other manufacturers in the quarter and captured the highest shipment share.

Additional highlights from the 1Q 2018 Microwave Transmission Quarterly Report:

  • Packet Microwave comprised nearly 45 percent of the total Microwave Transmission market revenue in the quarter.
  • E/V Band system revenue grew year-over-year (Y/Y) for a 23rd consecutive quarter, and is projected to grow for at least another five years.
  • The country with the largest demand for Microwave Transmission equipment is India; 17 percent of global shipments during the past twelve months ending March 2018 were for use in India.

"The Microwave Transmission market dramatically improved in 1Q 2018," stated Jimmy Yu, Vice President with Dell'Oro Group.  "Following two years of market contraction due to fewer LTE cell site deployments and upgrades, we had expected another year of decline until volume deployments of 5G NR occurred in late 2019.  Yet, the Microwave Transmission market posted a strong first quarter and is expected to turn a positive full year," continued Yu. 

Monday, May 14, 2018

IDC sees global telecom and pay TV spending on the rise

Worldwide spending on telecommunications services and pay TV services reached $1,662 billion in 2017, an increase of 1.4% year over year (in constant dollar terms), according to the International Data Corporation's (IDC) Worldwide Telecom Services Database, and will accelerate to a 1.6%  growth rate in 2018, bringing worldwide spending on telecom and pay TV services to $1,689 billion. IDC is predicting the market to continue its positive growth until the end of the five-year forecast period (2018-2022), growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1%.

On a geographic basis, the Americas will remain the largest services market until the end of the forecast period in 2022. However, due to somewhat slower growth compared to other regions, its share of total worldwide spending will decline from 38% in 2017 to 36% in 2022. In contrast, Asia/Pacific will see its share increase from 32% to 34%.

"The Asia/Pacific market is growing faster than other regions due to the thirst for data services – spending on fixed data services is set to grow by 6% over the forecast period, which is significantly higher than other regions and this, coupled with mobile data growth, is driving the overall market growth," said Eric Owen, group vice president, EMEA Telecommunications & Networking at IDC.



"The global telecoms market will maintain steady growth of 2% over the forecast timeframe of 2018-2022. Communications service providers are in transition, facing a flat voice market, but steady growth in fixed and mobile data services. Fixed data services will grow by 4% due to strong demand for broadband, Ethernet, and high-speed fiber connectivity. While mobile voice revenues are declining, this sector will be sustained by strong growth in data and other services," said Courtney Munroe, group vice president, Worldwide Telecommunications Research at IDC.

Sunday, May 13, 2018

GSMA: Central America falls behind in mobile development

Mobile broadband development in Central America is lagging behind the rest of Latin America, putting the region’s future economic development at risk, according to the new report ‘Assessing the impact of market structure on innovation and quality: Driving mobile broadband in Central America’ released by the GSMA.

The 52-page report examines the development of mobile broadband in six countries (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama) and finds that while 4G networks are available to 35 per cent of the population in Central America, the technology still only accounts for around 5 per cent of all mobile connections in the region, a sixth of that seen in South America.

“Closing the gap in 4G adoption in Central America requires urgent policy reform,” said Sebasti├ín Cabello, Head of Latin America, GSMA. “This report underscores the need for governments and regulators to act quickly in reforming policies that will encourage investment and innovation and enable operators to deliver high-quality mobile broadband services to consumers and businesses across the region.”

The GSMA report can be downloaded here



Monday, April 30, 2018

Semiconductor sales top $111 billion in Q1, up 20%

Worldwide sales of semiconductors reached $111.1 billion during the first quarter of 2018, an increase of 20 percent compared to the first quarter of 2017, but 2.5 percent less than the fourth quarter of 2017, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA). Sales for the month of March 2018 came in at $37.0 billion, an increase of 20 percent compared to the March 2017 total of $30.8 billion and 0.7 percent more than the February 2018 total of $36.8 billion.

"The global semiconductor market has demonstrated impressive growth through the first quarter of 2018, far exceeding sales through the same point in 2017, which was a record year for semiconductor revenues," said John Neuffer, president and CEO, Semiconductor Industry Association. "Sales in March increased year-to-year for the 20th consecutive month. All regional markets experienced double-digit growth compared to last year, and all major semiconductor product categories experienced year-to-year growth, with memory products continuing to lead the way."

Friday, April 27, 2018

Vertical Systems Group: 2017 U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD

Vertical Systems Group published the following 2017 U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD (in rank order by number of fiber lit buildings): AT&T, Verizon, Spectrum Enterprise, CenturyLink, Comcast, Cox, Crown Castle Fiber, Zayo, Frontier and Altice USA. These ten retail and wholesale fiber providers each qualified for this benchmark with 10,000 or more on-net U.S. fiber lit commercial buildings as of year-end 2017.

Twelve companies qualified for the 2017 Fiber Lit Buildings Challenge Tier as follows (in alphabetical order): Cincinnati Bell, Cleareon, Cogent, Consolidated Communications, FiberLight, FirstLight, IFN, Logix Fiber Networks, Lumos Networks, Unite Private Networks, Uniti Fiber and Windstream. These fiber providers each qualified for the 2017 Challenge Tier with between 2,000 and 9,999 U.S. fiber lit commercial buildings.

“With fiber footprint expansion in the strategic plans of every major network service provider, we’re seeing a significant ramp up in new lit building deployments,” said Rosemary Cochran, principal of Vertical Systems Group. “Merger, acquisition and re-branding activity across the fiber provider landscape is so intense that it takes a scorecard to keep track. Nearly every one of this year’s Fiber LEADERBOARD and Challenge Tier companies has been impacted by one or more fiber-related transactions in the past year.”

2017 Fiber Lit Buildings Research Scorecard
Major transactions for 2017 Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD companies:

  • Verizon (#2) acquired XO (2016 Challenge Tier)
  • CenturyLink (#4) merged with Level 3 (#6 on 2016 LEADERBOARD)
  • Crown Castle Fiber enters at #7 with the acquisition of Lightower (#8 on 2016 LEADERBOARD) and operations consolidation that included 2016 Challenge Tier companies, Sunesys and FiberNet Direct
  • Zayo (#8) advances from #9 in 2016 with the acquisition of Electric Lightwave (2016 Challenge Tier)
  • Frontier (#9) advances from #11 in 2016 with fiber assets acquired from Verizon

Other 2017 Challenge Tier company activity:
Consolidated Communications acquired Fairpoint (2016 Challenge Tier)
Uniti Fiber acquired Southern Light (2016 Challenge Tier)
Entering the 2017 Challenge Tier: Logix Fiber Networks, moving up from the Market Players tier

Tuesday, April 24, 2018

ACG: Network automation investments on the rise

Network automation investments are expected to grow by approximately 30 percent between now and 2021, according to an independent research report by ACG Research and sponsored by Ciena. The study, which surveyed 208 decision-makers from 200 different service providers and large enterprises across the globe, found that 75 percent of respondents expect to achieve full or significant network automation in the next five years.

“We all realize that network automation is happening, but we really wanted to delve deeper into service provider and large enterprise experiences, expectations and challenges with automation. One of the key survey findings that stood out to me was the need for trained, skilled personnel in the area of programmable networks and automation. Operators expect their vendor partners to be able to help them with not only products and services but also with bridging the skills gap between telecom and IT as they execute their automation journey,” stated Tim Doiron, Principal Analyst, Intelligent Networking, ACG Research.

Other Key Findings:

  • The top motivations cited for increasing automation include: faster service delivery, improved customer satisfaction, the ability to support more complex and innovative services, and increased business agility.
  • Respondents stated that the top concerns and gaps they must address to ensure the success of their network transformations are: security, intelligence/analytics, and a skilled workforce that not only understands traditional telecom networks but new IT and software innovations, as well.
  • All regions ranked analytics and security as top requirements when asked what elements are needed to increase automation, but there were some differences of opinion on other requirements. For example, 68 percent of operators in Central and Latin America named the ability to access network performance data as one of the top 3 important elements while 55 percent of respondents in the European region and 40 percent of respondents in the Asia-Pacific region pointed to open, programmable infrastructure as being in the top 3.
  • Overall, 60 percent of respondents across the globe indicate openness and interoperability as being “very important” for their automation solution and 82 percent plan to use open source software from vendors or a mix of sources.
  • When asked what superhero they want their future network to be associated with, respondents’ top three answers were: The Hulk, Spider-Man, and Black Widow. When asked why, the top responses included Strength, Speed and Intelligence.


“A new theme has started to emerge in our conversations with customers around the globe. Automation, programmability, and intelligence have become critical keystones of future networks. With the pace of growth in capacity, devices, and mobility moving exceedingly fast, adaptive networks, which combine these attributes, will allow organizations to not only survive, but thrive in the face of increasing complexity and unpredictable growth to support the services and applications of tomorrow,” stated – Joe Cumello, Vice President, Head of Global Marketing, Ciena.

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Vertical Systems Group: U.S. Business Fiber Availability Reaches 54.8%

The availability of optical fiber connectivity to large and medium size commercial buildings in the U.S. jumped to 54.8% in 2017, based on latest research from Vertical Systems Group. As a result, the U.S. Fiber Gap has dropped to less than fifty percent (45.2%) for the first time. This annual benchmark quantifies the scope of fiber lit buildings in the U.S. with twenty or more employees. Encompassing more than two million individual business establishments, this base of commercial buildings maps directly to the addressable market for higher speed Carrier Ethernet, Cloud, Data Center, Hybrid VPN and emerging SDN-enabled services. The count does not include standalone cell towers, small cells not located in fiber lit buildings, near net buildings, buildings classified as coiled at curb or coiled in building, HFC-connected buildings, carrier central offices, residential buildings, and private or dark fiber installations.

“More commercial U.S. buildings were newly lit with fiber during 2017 than in any other year since we initiated this research in 2004. The number of net new fiber lit buildings increased across every building size segment, and most substantially for medium size sites,” said Rosemary Cochran, principal of Vertical Systems Group. “Deployments will continue to accelerate because fiber is both a strategic asset for delivery of wireline business services, as well as a necessity for enabling 5G.”

https://www.verticalsystems.com/2018/04/05/u-s-business-fiber-availability-reaches-fifty/

Monday, April 2, 2018

IDC: Infrastructure sales for cloud data centers rises 27% in Q4 2017

Vendor revenue from sales of infrastructure products (server, storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud IT, including public and private cloud, grew 27.3% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2017 (4Q17), reaching $12.8 billion, according the latest International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker. For the full year 2017, the combined public and private cloud deployments continued the double-digit annual growth trend from past years with revenues reaching $43.4 billion for 21.7% year-over-year growth.

Public cloud infrastructure revenue has almost doubled in the past two years to $8.5 billion, growing 34.0% year over year in 4Q17. Private cloud revenue reached $4.3 billion for an annual increase of 15.7%. Total worldwide cloud IT infrastructure revenue in 2017 more than doubled when compared to 2013. The combined public and private cloud revenues now represent 42.2% of the total worldwide IT infrastructure spending, up from 39.3% a year ago. Traditional (non-cloud) IT infrastructure revenue grew 12.8% from a year ago, although it has been generally declining over the past several years; at $17.5 billion in 4Q17 it still represents 57.8% of total worldwide IT infrastructure spending.

"2017 finished strong for public cloud IT infrastructure growth, led by continued expansion by Amazon and renewed growth in Google and Facebook infrastructure," said Kuba Stolarski, research director for Computing Platforms at IDC. "While there has been high growth in all IT infrastructure segments lately, public cloud, led by the hyperscalers, has resulted in the largest share of infrastructure growth, which is expected to continue at this pace for at least a few more quarters."

  • Except for Latin America and Japan revenue, which grew 6.2% and 4.8% respectively from a year ago, all other regions in the world grew their cloud IT Infrastructure revenue by double digits. 
  • Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) saw the fastest growth rates at 59.0% and 34.1%, respectively. 
  • Canada (23.3%), Middle East & Africa (MEA) (27.5%) and USA (21.1%) had annual growth in the twenties, while Western Europe (16.6%) had annual growth in the teens.

Sunday, March 25, 2018

Orange leads 2017 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD

Orange retains the top position on Vertical Systems Group’s 2017 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD, while AT&T moves up to second, displacing Colt.

The results are as follows (in rank order based on retail port share): Orange Business Services (France), AT&T (U.S.), Colt (U.K.), CenturyLink (U.S.), BT Global Services (U.K.), Verizon (U.S.) and NTT (Japan). The Global Provider LEADERBOARD, the industry’s benchmark for multinational Ethernet network market presence, ranks companies that hold a 4% or higher share of billable retail ports at sites outside of their respective home countries.

The Challenge Tier of Global Providers includes companies with share between 2% and 4% of this defined market. Seven companies qualify for the year-end 2017 Challenge Tier (in alphabetical order): Cogent (U.S.), Global Cloud Xchange (India), SingTel (Singapore), T-Systems (Germany), Tata Communications (India), Telefonica Worldwide (Spain) and Vodafone (U.K.). Global Cloud Xchange is the new entrant gaining a Challenge Tier citation, moving up from the Market Player tier.

“With very slim margins separating the leading global service providers, Orange remains in first position, AT&T advances to second, and CenturyLink makes its debut,” said Rick Malone, principal at Vertical Systems Group. “To serve this specialized global market, key providers are increasing deployments of higher speed Ethernet connectivity to MPLS, VPLS and cloud services, while transitioning customers to more dynamic, advanced SDN-based hybrid WAN and SD-WAN offerings.”

The Market Player tier includes all Global Providers with port share below 2%. Companies in the year-end 2017 Market Player tier are as follows (in alphabetical order): Bell (Canada), Bezeq (Israel), CAT Telecom (Thailand), China Telecom (China), Chunghwa Telecom (Taiwan), Eir (Ireland), Embratel (Brazil), euNetworks (U.K.), Exponential-e (U.K.), Globe (Philippines), GlobeNet (Brazil), GTT (U.S.), HGC Global (Hong Kong), Indosat (Indonesia), Interoute (U.K.), KDDI (Japan), Korea Telecom (Korea), KPN (Netherlands), Liberty Global (Netherlands), Masergy (U.S.), PCCW Global (Hong Kong), PLDT Global (Philippines), Rogers (Canada), Rostelecom (Russia), Spark (New Zealand), Sparkle (Italy), Sprint (U.S.), StarHub (Singapore), TDC (Denmark), Telekom Malaysia (Malaysia), Telia (Sweden), Telin (Singapore), Telkom South Africa (South Africa), TelMex (Mexico), Telstra (Australia), Vector (New Zealand), Virgin Media Business (U.K.), Zayo (U.S.), and other providers selling Ethernet services outside their home country.

Gartner: Worldwide IoT security spending to reach $1.5 billion in 2018

Worldwide spending on IoT security will reach $1.5 billion in 2018, a 28 percent increase from 2017 spending of $1.2 billion, according to Gartner.

Gartner predicts that through 2020, the biggest inhibitor to growth for IoT security will come from a lack of prioritization and implementation of security best practices and tools in IoT initiative planning. This will hamper the potential spend on IoT security by 80 percent.

Gartner is also predicting that by 2021 regulatory compliance will become the prime influencer for IoT security uptake, especially in industries such as finance and healthcare where critical infrastructure protection mandates will appear.

"In IoT initiatives, organizations often don't have control over the source and nature of the software and hardware being utilized by smart connected devices," said Ruggero Contu, research director at Gartner. "We expect to see demand for tools and services aimed at improving discovery and asset management, software and hardware security assessment, and penetration testing. In addition, organizations will look to increase their understanding of the implications of externalizing network connectivity. These factors will be the main drivers of spending growth for the forecast period with spending on IoT security expected to reach $3.1 billion in 2021 (see Table 1)."

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Crehan: 400GbE to drive majority of data center Ethernet switch bandwidth

400 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) switches will see initial shipments this year and will grow exponentially, driving the majority of data center Ethernet switch bandwidth by 2022, according to a newly published Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report by Crehan Research Inc.

In addition to a strong ramp of 400GbE, Crehan’s report predicts that:

  • 400GbE data center switches will offer a bandwidth discount over lower speed switches during the initial year of shipments  400GbE adoption will be further bolstered by the arrival of 100G-PAM4 SerDes, likely in the 2020 timeframe, thus reducing the number of lanes required to achieve 400GbE by half – from 8*50 to 4*100 – and further lessening the cost and power of these data center switches 
  • 100GbE shipments will surpass 40GbE shipments during 2018, just three years after the initial shipments of high-density 100GbE data center switch systems 
  • The overall market average selling price per port for data center switching will remain relatively stable, driven by the adoption of higher-speed switches 

“Beginning with high-density 100GbE systems, we entered a new era of much faster data center switch upgrades, and that trend is predicted to continue with 400GbE,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.  "With its expected market-leading price per gigabit and no foreseeable shortage of demand for higher-speed networking capacity in cloud data centers, 400GbE should surpass a million ports shipped in less time than it took 100GbE to reach that threshold.”

Dell'Oro: WDM metro revenue surpassed $7 billion in 2017

WDM Metro equipment revenue surpassed $7 billion in 2017, according to a recently published report from Dell’Oro Group. Huawei, ZTE, and Ciena led the market for 2017.

Additional highlights from the 4Q17 Optical Transport Quarterly Report:

  • Optical Transport revenue increased 19 percent year-over-year in 4Q17, driven largely from increased WDM Metro sales. In the quarter, WDM Metro revenue grew 30 percent year-over-year.
  • The majority of WDM Metro revenue growth in 2017 occurred in two regions—Asia Pacific and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa).
  • Three vendors—Cisco, ECI Telecom, and ZTE—each increased their WDM Metro revenue by over 40 percent.
  • Demand for coherent line cards continued to grow at a high rate, and approximately 185 thousand coherent line cards shipped for metro applications in 2017.

“The WDM Metro systems market jumped in 2017,” said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “We all knew that demand for WDM systems in metro applications would increase, but it was a huge surprise to see an 18 percent revenue increase in 2017,” added Yu.

Monday, March 12, 2018

The tower companies will let us know when 5G rollouts get real

Network densification is a key premise of 5G architecture. Once the rollouts of 5G networks begin in earnest, we should expect to see many more cell sites in urban areas across the world. How many more? That remains to see, but the count of small cells could be 10x of the number of macro base stations common in the 3G/4G era – or maybe even higher than that. Each one of these small cells will need a physical location, which must be purchased or leased from a property owner. It requires permits and authorization from municipal authorities. It must have electrical power, and it must have the backhaul capacity to support multigigabit services – this implies fibre connectivity, although some schemes for meshed wireless backhaul are under consideration as well.

One way to measure the progress of 5G rollouts will be to keep an eye on the companies that actually will handle the deployment of physical equipment on the streets. Once we see the independent tower operators report increased rents do the deployment of massive MIMO antennas or the provisioning of new fibre contracts, then we will know the game has really begun.

Building and managing the physical infrastructure is a headache, especially when there are tens of thousands of sites dispersed across thousands of municipal jurisdictions. For this reason, mobile operators have moved quickly to exit this tricky business. In some countries, they have formed networking infrastructure sharing alliances with their rivals. In other countries, they have spun-out their cell site infrastructure into new companies. In the U.S. market, they have sold their tower operations either to Crown Castle or American Tower.

American Tower, which operates approximately 149,000 communications sites, including approximately 40,000 towers in the United States and more than 108,000 towers internationally, prides itself on being one of the largest global real estate investment trusts (REITs). In addition to the towers (masts) mentioned above, its portfolio also includes more than 800 Distributed Antenna Systems (DAS) in malls, casinos, and other indoor/outdoor venues. The Boston-based company, which was founded in 1995, has a simple missions statement – “to be the premier wireless infrastructure provider” – even if it never becomes recognized as a household name by the billions of consumers with smartphones in their hands right now.

In the United States, there are a number of requirements for a company to be considered a REIT, including that the majority of income must be generated by rents or leases rather than services. A different tax methodology can make this form of business organization more appealing than ordinary corporate structures, but there are requirements that may restrict the company’s business activities and strategic manoeuvres. For instance, REITs typically must distribute 90 percent of taxable income to shareholders, rather than using it for other purposes. The structure typically is modeled after mutual funds.  Additionally, REITs must invest at least 75 percent of its total assets in assets, which could restrict the capital investments that the company might make in network equipment.

As of press time, we are awaiting the publication of the company’s financial results for Q4 2017, but American Tower’s recent performance has been good --18 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth in terms of its adjusted EBITDA. Revenue per site is on the rise and with the exception of occasional consolidation of its mobile network customers – which is a major and perennial threat to its business, the general trend is upward and forward. In this era of exploding demand for mobile data, it is a sure bet that mobile operators will be needing more towers and more bandwidth at those towers, than ever before.

In the United States, over the past few quarters, American Tower has experienced organic tenant billings growth at a pace of over 6 percent. The company also sees solid business growth across its diverse international footprint.  American Tower is pursuing a capital allocation strategy that includes stock buybacks, dividends, and acquisitions.

Big breakaway growth opportunities include multi-year network deployments with FirstNet, the first responders' network in the U.S., and Red Compartida, the shared network infrastructure project in Mexico, along with the coming 5G upgrade cycle.

The market is waiting to see financial guidance for how 5G will impact future revenue.
American Tower’s property revenue breaks down as follows geographically.

U.S. 55%
Latin America 18%
Asia                 18%
EMEA 10%

As of June 2017, it’s major customers include the big four U.S. mobile operators

AT&T   15%
Verizon 16%
Sprint             9%
T-Mobile         8%




See also