Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 2, 2019

LightCounting: High Speed Ethernet Optics Report

The market for Ethernet optical transceivers is expected to decline by 18% in 2019, which will be the steepest decline in the recorded history of this market, according to a new report from LightCounting.

Global sales of Ethernet optical transceivers increased by 16% CAGR in the period from 2004 to 2018, including a 5-year streak of 27% CAGR in 2012-2017. This accelerated growth was driven by deployments of optics in mega datacenters. The growth streak was started by Google deploying 10GbE transceivers in 2007-2008 and gained scale in 2012-2017 with the adoption of 40GbE and 100GbE transceivers.

LightCounting suggests that this market segment will post a 22% CAGR in 2019-2024, after a reset in 2019, driven by sales of next-generation products and continuing demand for 100GbE optics.

Several factors contributed to a slowdown in the market growth last year and a decline in 2019:

  • Transition to next-generation products takes longer than expected,
  • 100GbE prices reached new lows in Q1 2019 and reset expectations for the pricing of the next-generation products,
  • The slowdown in Cloud spending on optics deployed inside mega datacenters.
  • There is a lot of economic uncertainty related to escalating trade war between China and the US. The trade war has already impacted the economy in China and Chinese Cloud companies have lowered spending on high-speed optics as a result. More conservative infrastructure spending of US-based vendors aligns to the uncertain macro-economic situation.

https://www.lightcounting.com/News_100119.cfm


Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Cignal AI: Compact modular market slows as customers evaluate 600G

Sales of Compact Modular optical transport platforms slowed during the second quarter of the year despite significant growth from market leader Ciena, as reported in the latest Optical Applications Report from market research firm Cignal AI.

Production shipments of new 600Gbps platforms are taking longer to ramp as operators require more time to evaluate these next-generation solutions. As a result, Cignal AI has decreased the overall 2019 Compact Modular sales forecast for the year.

The outlook for Compact Modular equipment remains positive, especially in NA and EMEA where growth is strong as incumbent and cloud & colo operators expand the use of disaggregated networks. Compact modular will claim a greater percentage of the market as operators migrate to IP-over-DWDM in 2022/2023.

“The move to disaggregated networks continues, and Compact Modular optical platforms are a central part of those network designs,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware and Cignal AI. “The rollout of 600Gbps platforms is taking longer than anticipated, but NEL and Acacia-based systems from Cisco, Infinera, and others should recognize greater revenue in the third quarter and will lead a return to growth.”

Cignal AI’s 2Q19 Optical Applications Report details market share and provides forecasts through 2023 in three key markets: compact modular equipment, advanced packet-OTN switching hardware, and 100G+ coherent WDM port shipments across multiple speeds.



Additional 2Q19 Applications Report Findings:

  • Ciena maintained leadership in the Compact Modular market and was the only vendor to grow sales in Q2. Other vendors are in the middle of a customer transition to higher 400G+ coherent technology.
  • Cisco recognized token revenue from Acacia-based Compact Modular systems this quarter. Both Cisco and Infinera are expected to recognize significant 400Gbps+ revenue in the third quarter.
  • Packet-OTN sales slowed in APAC but this is not an enduring trend; sales growth slowed in Q2 due to some delayed demand among Indian incumbents. This region remains the largest market for Packet-OTN.
  • Almost 500,000 coherent ports shipped during the past twelve months, with the vast majority coming from the top 5 vendors. Volume continues to aggressively ramp during 2019, including healthy shipments from Chinese vendors.
  • The long haul WDM market is growing in 2019 due to deployments of the latest coherent technology. Metro growth continues through the year with a delay in competitive price pressure from high baud rate optics.


https://cignal.ai/2019/09/compact-modular-market-slows-as-customers-evaluate-600g/

Sunday, September 22, 2019

Telecom's $490 Billion Open Source Network Opportunity



“This huge $490B equipment spending opportunity over the next 5 years in communications service provider networks is large but is also complex; and the impact of next-generation SDN is making broadband and 5G deployment easier,” said Chris DePuy, founding analyst for 650 Group. “Operators are now moving to open source on a project and a technology basis gradually. Operators expect to achieve considerable Opex savings while also improving service agility.”


CORD TAM Research Update - Keynote by Chris DePuy, Founding Analyst, 650 Group - ONF Connect 19 from Open Networking Foundation on Vimeo.

Thursday, September 19, 2019

Vertical Systems: Mid-2019 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD

AT&T has topped Vertical Systems Group's Mid-Year 2019 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD. Results are as follows (in rank order based on retail port share): AT&T (U.S.), Colt (U.K.), CenturyLink (U.S.), BT Global Services (U.K.), Orange Business Services (France), Verizon (U.S.) and NTT (Japan).

"Network providers serving multinational enterprises continue to actively expand their Ethernet coverage globally," said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. "Customer demand for T1/E1 conversions and new Ethernet DIA connections are igniting growth in both existing and emerging markets. In response, providers are seeking more local partnerships to broaden their service delivery footprints."

Mid-Year 2019 Global Provider Highlights:

  • AT&T retains the top position on the Global Provider LEADERBOARD for the second consecutive year.
  • Share margins are tightening among the top four LEADERBOARD ranked companies - AT&T, Colt, CenturyLink and BT Global Services.
  • Eight companies attained a Challenge Tier citation, up from seven at the end of 2018, as Global Cloud Xchange advances from the Market Player tier.
  • Four of the seven LEADERBOARD providers and six of the eight Challenge Tier providers have MEF CE 2.0 certification. 

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Vertical Systems: Mid-Year 2019 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD

The top seven companies on Vertical Systems Group's newly published mid-year 2019 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD are (in rank order based on mid-year 2019 retail port share): CenturyLink, AT&T, Verizon, Spectrum Enterprise, Comcast, Windstream and Cox. This mid-year LEADERBOARD roster increases from six to seven as Cox moves up from the Challenge Tier.

To qualify for a rank on this LEADERBOARD, network providers must have four percent (4%) or more of the U.S. Ethernet services market. Shares are measured based on the number of billable retail customer ports installed. Vertical Systems Group's Ethernet port share analysis includes the following six service segments from the market perspective of what service providers are offering and enterprise customers are purchasing: Ethernet DIA (Dedicated Internet Access), E-Access to IP/MPLS VPN, Ethernet Private Lines, Ethernet Virtual Private Lines, Metro LAN, and WAN VPLS.

"In the first half of 2019 the U.S. Ethernet market showed steady port growth just above five percent," said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. "The three Cable MSOs ranked on the LEADERBOARD - Spectrum Enterprise, Comcast and Cox - had the highest port growth in this period, spurred in part by SD-WAN customer demand for Ethernet DIA connections to the public Internet."

In addition to the LEADERBOARD providers, all other companies selling Ethernet services in the U.S. are segmented into two tiers as measured by port share.

The Challenge Tier includes providers with between 1% and 4% share of the U.S. retail Ethernet market. For mid-year 2019, the following six companies attained a position in the Challenge Tier (in alphabetical order): Altice USA, Cogent, Frontier, GTT, Sprint and Zayo.

The Market Player tier includes all providers with port share below 1%. Companies in the Market Player tier include the following providers (in alphabetical order): Alaska Communications, American Telesis, Atlantic Broadband, BT Global Services, Cincinnati Bell, Consolidated Communications, Crown Castle Fiber, DQE Communications, Expedient, FiberLight, FirstLight, Fusion, Global Cloud Xchange, Great Plains Communications, Logix Fiber Networks, LS Networks, Masergy, MetTel, Midco, Momentum Telecom, NTT America, Orange Business, RCN Business, Segra, Sparklight Business, Tata, TDS Telecom, Telstra, TPx, Unite Private Networks, US Signal, WOW!Business and other companies selling retail Ethernet services in the U.S. market.

http://www.verticalsystems.com

Sunday, September 8, 2019

IDC: Ethernet Switch Market up 4.8% in 2Q19

The worldwide Ethernet switch market (Layer 2/3) recorded revenues of $7.07 billion in the second quarter of 2019 (2Q19), an increase of 4.8% year over year, according to IDC's newly updated Worldwide Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and Worldwide Quarterly Router Tracker. Worldwide total enterprise and service provider (SP) router market revenues grew 3.4% year over year in 2Q19 to $3.96 billion.

Ethernet Switch Market Highlights

  • Port shipments for 100Gb switches rose 58.3% year over year to 4.4 million. 
  • 100Gb revenues grew 42.9% year over year in 2Q19 to $1.28 billion, making up 18.1% of the market's revenue, compared to 13.2% of the market's revenue a year earlier. 
  • 25Gb switches also saw impressive growth, increasing 84.8% to $364.1 million, with port shipments growing 74.5% year over year. 
  • 10Gb port shipments rose 2.6% year over year, to make up 27.9% of the market's revenue. 
  • 1Gb switches grew 6.6% year over year in port shipments, making up 40.0% of the market's total revenues.
  • The Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region grew 10.8% year over year, with Russia – the region's largest market – growing 9.2% and Poland growing 29.6%. The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region also had strong growth at 10.2%; Qatar led the region's increase with 70.3% growth. Western Europe rose 1.1%, with the Netherlands growing 18.6% within the region.
  • The USA market grew 10.7% while Canada's market grew 3.8%. The Latin America region was off 1.2% after Brazil fell 8.3%.
  • The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) region fell 4.2% year over year. 
  • China's market declined 4.7% year over year while Australia's market dropped 16.0%.

Router Market Highlights

  • The worldwide enterprise and service provider router market grew 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in 2Q19, with the major service provider segment, which accounts for 75.9% of revenues, increasing 2.0% and the enterprise segment of the market growing a healthy 8.0%. 
  • The combined service provider and enterprise router market increased 2.7% in APeJ, with the service provider segment increasing 3.8%. 
  • Japan's total market grew 7.0% year over year. 
  • Revenues in Western Europe rose 5.2% year over year, while the CEE combined enterprise and service provider market grew 15.2% year over year. 
  • The MEA region was up 7.4%. 
  • In the USA, the enterprise segment was up 18.8%, but service provider revenues fell 6.4%, causing the total market to decline 0.8% year over year. Canada's market rose 9.2% year over year and the Latin American market grew 8.1%.

Vendor Highlights

  • Cisco finished 2Q19 with an 6.8% year-over-year increase in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 51.1%.  In the hotly contested 25Gb/100Gb segment, Cisco is the market leader with 38.8% of the market's revenue. Cisco's campus/branch Ethernet switch revenue increased 14.3% year over year. Meanwhile, Cisco's datacenter switching revenue declined 3.2% year over year in 2Q19. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue rose 6.6% year over year, with enterprise router revenue increasing 16.2% and SP revenues growing 1.1%. Cisco's combined SP and enterprise router market share increased to 36.8%, up from 35.7% in 2Q18.
  • Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue rose 18.9% on an annualized basis, giving the company market share of 9.7%. The company's combined SP and enterprise router revenue rose 1.5% year over year with a market share of 31.1%.
  • Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues increase 15.4% in 2Q19, bringing its share to 7.3% of the total market, up from 6.6% a year earlier. 100Gb revenues accounted for 65.4% of the company's total revenue, indicating the company's focus on hyperscale and cloud providers and select large enterprise segments.
  • HPE's Ethernet switch revenue declined 6.3% year over year, giving the company a market share of 5.8%.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue declined 19.6% in 2Q19, bringing its market share to 2.9%. Juniper saw a 15.0% decline in combined enterprise and SP router sales, bringing its market share in the router market to 10.5%.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45487019

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Dell'Oro: DWDM systems revenue grew 8% Y/Y in 1H19

The market for DWDM systems significantly grew year-over-year (Y/Y) in the first half of 2019, according to Dell'Oro Group, in part because the comparative period, 1H 2018, includes much lower sales into China caused by the US ban on ZTE.



Some highlights:

  • In 1H 2019, Ciena held nearly 30 percent share of the optical DWDM market outside of China due to the company’s dominance in North America and growing share in international markets. 
  • Ciena’s revenue grew over 20 percent Y/Y. 
  • During this period, Huawei held the second-highest share outside of China even though the company’s market share declined slightly from both full-year 2018 and 1H 2018. 
  • Nokia continued to hold the third-highest share outside of China with revenue growth in the period exceeding the market average percentage growth of 5 percent.


https://www.delloro.com/optical-transport-2q19-report-dwdm-systems-market-grew-8-percent-y-y-in-1h-2019/

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Dell'Oro: 25 Gbps Ethernet adapter gain share

Shipments of Ethernet controllers and adapters marked the first sequential growth year-over-year (Y/Y) in 2Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. The 25 Gbps continues to gain share in the Cloud and Enterprise markets.

“Shipments of 10 Gbps controllers and adapters were stronger than expected with demand from general enterprises and lower-tier Cloud service providers. Meanwhile, 25 Gbps continues to gain momentum across key vendors in the high-end Enterprise market,” said Baron Fung, Director, at Dell’Oro Group. “Among the major Cloud service providers, which generally deploy 25, 40, and 50 Gbps ports, growth was mixed, as select companies are still undergoing server capacity digestion. Thus, we continue to anticipate great volatility in this sector for these higher-speed ports.”

Additional highlights from the Controller and Adapter 2Q 2019 quarterly report include:

  • Total controller and adapter port shipments increased 3 percent quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) in 2Q 2019.
  • Average sell price per port increased 6 percent Q/Q, which contributed to higher sequential revenue growth.
  • Amazon still commands more than 90 percent share of the Smart NIC market by ports shipped, although Broadcom and Mellanox gained share.

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Dell'Oro: WiFi 6 Adoption Boosts Sales of Aruba, Extreme, and Huawei

Mixed results characterized the 2Q 2019 Wireless LAN market, according to a recently published report by Dell’Oro Group that questions whether 2Q19 is the pause before the storm.

“Overall Wireless LAN market sales were soft, but not unusual compared to prior years. However, what caught our eye was the slowdown in overall unit shipments,” said Tam Dell’Oro, Founder and CEO at Dell’Oro Group. “The slowdown came from midrange and high-end across many manufacturers. In contrast, sales were robust growing well into the double-digits Y/Y at the lower-end price sensitive segment. WiFi 6 is picking up momentum as several additional vendors began shipping products during the quarter such as Cisco, Extreme Networks, and Fortinet. Select vendors with WiFi 6 already shipping enjoyed a surge in sales such as Aruba Networks, and Huawei,” added Dell’Oro.

Additional highlights from the Wireless LAN 2Q 2019 Quarterly Report:

  • Sales within China outpaced all other regions of the world.
  • Sales to the lower-Education vertical industry bounced back after declining for several quarters, while notable strength was observed in the government and manufacturing sectors.
  • NBASE-T ports rose sharply Q/Q, a trend we forecast to continue.


https://www.delloro.com/news/mixed-results-characterized-2q-2019-wireless-lan-market-a-pause-before-the-storm/

Monday, September 2, 2019

Dell'Oro: Worldwide telecom equipment market up 6%

The worldwide telecom equipment market grew 6 percent year-over-year (Y/Y) in the past twelve months, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

The majority of growth was driven by Mobile RAN and Optical Transport sales. Equipment manufacturer revenue in these two technology areas grew 10 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

The telecom equipment market shifted into a growth phase in 3Q 2018 after three years of decline. As a result, the market’s growth for the trailing four-quarter period ending 2Q 2019 was up significantly from a bottom reached in 2017. Most of the leading vendors gained revenue during this period with the highest percentage increases obtained by Samsung, ZTE, and Ciena.

Although Huawei was placed on the U.S. Entity List in late May, restricting its purchase of U.S. components without a license, the company seems to have avoided any negative impact on sales of telecom equipment. For the trailing four-quarter period (3Q18 through 2Q19), Huawei held the highest share of the telecom equipment market at 28 percent.

Nokia captured the second-highest share in the period due to its strong position in each of the seven technology segments included in the Telecom Equipment Market report. Nokia was a top 4 vendor in each product category.

Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Dell'Oro: Evolved Packet Core sales up 13% yoy

Evolved Packet Core (EPC) revenues were up 13 percent year-over-year (Y/Y) in 2Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.  5G Core deployments are expected in 2020.

“EPC revenues grew for a fourth consecutive quarter at double-digit percentages, growing 13 percent Y/Y in 2Q 2019,” said Dave Bolan, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “You can hardly go a day now without a 5G launch being announced somewhere in the world. That means all of those service providers had to upgrade their EPC to carry 5G traffic,” continued Bolan.

“As we move into 2020, service providers will start to expand their 5G coverage by adding 5G standalone base stations that will require the 5G Core.  We expect to see some 5G Core revenues as early as the first quarter. But the revenues will be small and not significant as service providers build out small markets to learn how to use the 5G Core before rolling out nationwide,” added Bolan.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2019 Wireless Packet Core quarterly report include:

  • The top three EPC vendor rankings for the quarter were Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia.
  • The Asia Pacific region had the highest EPC Y/Y revenue growth rate for the quarter accounting for over 40 percent of the revenue.
  • The trend towards more network function virtualization (NFV) continued accounting for 39 percent of the EPC revenue in the quarter.

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Dell'Oro:Surging 5G deployments in APAC

Healthy LTE growth and surging 5G investments in the Asia Pacific region added fuel to the Radio Access Networks (RAN) market upswing that began in the second half of 2018, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

“After several years of the Asia Pacific region being a drag on the worldwide RAN market, preliminary 2Q 2019 data points indicated positive trends extended into the second quarter, adding confidence that the tides are turning in the region,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President with the Dell’Oro Group. “In addition to healthy demand for low-band LTE solutions and easier year-over-year comparisons following the ZTE ban last year, surging 5G mid-band deployments in China and South Korea helped to drive the acceleration of the overall RAN market,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2019 Mobile RAN report:

  • The Asia Pacific region, including China, comprised more than 80 percent of worldwide RAN growth between 1H 2018 and 1H 2019.
  • 5G NR growth in the APAC region was 3x to 4x the size of the incremental LTE upside.
  • Samsung and ZTE recorded the largest overall RAN revenue share gains between 1H 2018 and 1H 2019 – with the two vendors collectively gaining five points of revenue share in the Asia Pacific region.


https://www.delloro.com/news/surging-5g-deployments-in-asia-pacific-fueled-the-worldwide-ran-market/

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Cignal AI: Optical hardware spending on the rise

Optical hardware spending grew in every region and for every business segment during 2Q19, according to the most recent Optical Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI. Huawei retained top market share worldwide and held steady despite a slowdown in China and increasing competitive and political pressures.

“Huawei managed to retain market share in what is typically its strongest quarter of the year,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst at Cignal AI. “Despite the export ban of many optical components and the reports of competitive wins against Huawei in EMEA and APAC, Huawei market share remained steady.”



Additional Key Findings in Cignal AI's 2Q19 Optical Hardware Report:

  • WDM Long Haul Spending Up – Long haul spending recovered in every region except Japan, as compact modular equipment and new high-speed coherent optics impact investments.
  • WDM Metro Declines in North America But Grows in All Other Regions – Factors contributing to the NA decline are the lower price per bit of new high-speed optics and competing priorities like the 5G rollout.
  • SONET/SDH Hangs On – Growth in APAC and EMEA offset SONET/SDH’s ongoing decline in NA. This growth comes from expansions and upgrades to existing networks; there are no new builds.
  • China’s Growth Slows — Growth in China appears dramatic due to the ZTE shutdown and the absence of revenue a year ago. Excluding ZTE’s results, growth slowed.
  • Coherent Optic Shipments Tracking to Reach Nearly 1 Million 100G Equivalent Ports in 2019 – This represents a 40% increase in bandwidth over 2018.
  • Regional trends - This quarter marked a turnaround for CALA, reversing multiple quarters of decline with a YoY surge of 30%. EMEA also grew with expansion across all product segments. Overall growth in North America was minor and would have been negative again if not for an enormous SLTE revenue increase this quarter. Finally, the rapid expansion in Japan for the past few quarters settled down to a more moderate pace with Ciena, NEC, and Huawei as the prime beneficiaries.

Cignal AI also offers an interactive Optical Hardware Market Share Tracker to clients of the Optical Hardware Report and provides quarterly up-to-date market data for real-time visibility on individual vendors’ results as they are released.

https://cignal.ai/2019/08/growth-returns-as-optical-hardware-spending-increases-in-every-region/

Friday, July 26, 2019

Cignal AI: Optical spending shifts from telcos to cloud operators

Cloud and colo spending increased over 50% in North America, offsetting declines in other regions, with Ciena continuing to lead all sales to cloud operators, according to the most recent Optical Customer Markets Report from research firm Cignal AI.

In EMEA, traditional telco (incumbent and wholesale network operators) optical spending recovered and will grow by double digits during 2019. Spending growth by these operators is slowing in APAC as total spending reaches record highs. Huawei continues to lead this market in APAC, EMEA, and CALA, while Ciena leads in North America.

“Optical spending in North America continues to shift from traditional telco providers to the cloud and colo operators,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware at Cignal AI. “Despite traditional telco operators accounting for most spending, the rapid growth in cloud spending combined with traditional operators now adopting cloud architectures has permanently changed supplier R&D priorities.”

Additional findings in the 1Q19 Optical Customer Markets Report include:

  • Ciena Waveserver Ai market share continues to increase as cloud & colo spending grows. New compact modular platforms targeted at this market are entering the market in 2Q19 with Cisco, Infinera, and Nokia among those expecting stronger sales in the next quarter.
  • North American cable/MSO spending declined in the first quarter. However, moderate growth is still expected in 2019.
  • Enterprise and Government spending shows pressure from consolidation and Cloud and Colo encroachment and isn’t expected to recover in the next two years.


https://cignal.ai/2019/07/cloud-and-colo-optical-hardware-spending-increases-by-50-in-north-america/


Thursday, July 25, 2019

Dell'Oro: Growth forecast for 10 Gbps EPON and XGS-PON

Global PON equipment market revenue is forecast to reach $7.3 B by 2023, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

The growth will be driven by spending on new 10 Gbps EPON and XGS-PON deployments, and on maximizing existing 2.5 Gbps GPON networks.

“Fiber deployments continue to expand around the world, thanks to increased competition and an improved funding environment for both public and private networks,” noted Jeff Heynen, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Today’s XGS-PON trials are quickly moving to production deployments, positioning operators to compete with cable DOCSIS 3.1 networks,” continued Heynen.

Additional highlights from the Broadband Access 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • Broadband Access market projected to increase at a 4 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the forecast period.
  • Spending on cable infrastructure will only reach $1.6 B by 2023, as cable operators slow their Converged Cable Access Platform (CCAP) purchases while focusing on their Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) deployments.
  • VDSL Profile 35b and Gfast will offset some, but not all of the revenue loss from declining ADSL and VDSL port shipments. Some major Gfast deployments are already seeing signs of shrinking, as operators increase their investments in fiber.

https://www.delloro.com/news/global-pon-equipment-market-revenue-forecast-to-reach-7-3-b-by-2023/

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

IDC: SD-WAN market to hit $5.25 billion by 2023

The SD-WAN infrastructure market will grow at a 30.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2023 to reach $5.25 billion, according to IDC's SD-WAN Infrastructure Forecast.

The SD-WAN infrastructure market to be highly competitive, according to IDC, with sales increasing by 64.9% in 2018 to $1.37 billion.

IDC finds that Cisco holds the largest share of the SD-WAN infrastructure market, fueled by its extensive routing portfolio that is used in SD-WAN deployments, as well as its Meraki portfolio and its SD-WAN management platform powered by technology it acquired from Viptela in August 2017. VMware, with its SD-WAN service powered by VeloCloud (which VMware acquired in December 2017), holds the second-largest market share in the SD-WAN infrastructure market, followed by Silver Peak, Nokia-Nuage, and Riverbed.

"SD-WAN continues to be one of the fastest-growing segments of the network infrastructure market, driven by a variety of factors. First, traditional enterprise WANs are increasingly not meeting the needs of today's modern digital businesses, especially as it relates to supporting SaaS apps and multi- and hybrid-cloud usage. Second, enterprises are interested in easier management of multiple connection types across their WAN to improve application performance and end-user experience," said Rohit Mehra, vice president, Network Infrastructure. "Combined with the rapid embrace of SD-WAN by leading communications service providers globally, these trends continue to drive deployments of SD-WAN, providing enterprises with dynamic management of hybrid WAN connections and the ability to guarantee high levels of quality of service on a per-application basis."

IDC's Market Share and Market Forecast reports focus specifically on the SD-WAN infrastructure market, which includes both hardware and software used in SD-WAN deployments. IDC defines SD-WAN as a dynamic, policy-enabled hybrid WAN that uses at least two or more connection methods (such as MPLS, broadband internet, 3G/4G, etc.) and includes a centralized application-based policy controller that provides intelligent path selection, along with an optional forwarder for routing capability. The SD-WAN infrastructure Market Share and Forecast reports do not include managed services related to SD-WAN, such as setup or operational support, nor do they include connectivity costs.

The IDC SD-WAN Infrastructure Forecast provides an outlook for this market across major regions for the period extending to 2023, including historical numbers through 2017 and forecast numbers from 2019 to 2023. It also provides regional geographic segmentation of the SD-WAN infrastructure market, including market sizes and CAGRs for each major region (North America, EMEA, APJ, Latin America).

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45380319

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Crehan: Top 3 clouds account for majority of whitebox Ethernet switch deployments

Three of the largest hyperscale cloud service providers account for most of the whitebox-class data center Ethernet switch shipments, according to recent reports from Crehan Research Inc.

Amazon, Google and Facebook combined to exceed two-thirds of total 2018 annual volumes.

Whitebox-class data center Ethernet switch shipments as a whole had a robust annual increase, to exceed 20% of the total annual volumes; but without Amazon, Google and Facebook, whitebox-class switching accounted for 7%.

“Although there seems to be a fair amount of tire-kicking, pilot projects and evaluations of whitebox-class data center switching, its overall adoption outside of three of the largest hyperscale cloud service providers has, so far, remained a relatively modest portion of overall data center switching,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Furthermore, the branded Ethernet switch vendors now offer customers what once was generally attainable only from whitebox switch deployments, including disaggregated open networking, programmability and significant price reductions.”

The boundary between branded and whitebox-class data center switching continues to blur, as evidenced by the following examples:

  • The hyperscale internet service provider Tencent is deploying Cisco’s merchant silicon-based Nexus 34180YC Ethernet switch with the SONiC operating system in its data centers.
  • Arista has jointly developed its most recent data center switch (the 7368X4) with Facebook which had historically worked with whitebox-class vendors such as Accton/Edgecore and Celestica, where the data center switch design was solely by Facebook.
  • Branded Ethernet switch vendors such as Dell EMC, Juniper and Mellanox offer disaggregated hardware/software solutions to deliver more flexibility and openness to data center networking customers.

Crehan’s reports further indicate that, while the overall market adoption of whitebox-class data center switching is in the twenty percent range it is higher than this for the newer and faster networking speeds. This is largely because Amazon, Google and Facebook tend to be earlier adopters of these newer and faster speeds. For example, almost all of the early volume in 400GbE data center switching is driven by whitebox-class switches, due to Google’s dominance of these early deployments. “We expect that, similar to other Ethernet speeds, the portion of whitebox-class data center switch volumes will decline as a broader customer base starts to deploy 400GbE switches,” Crehan said.

http://www.crehanresearch.com

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Top 5 Clouds account for 65% of optical transceivers for data centers

Alibaba, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Microsoft accounted for more than 65% of all Ethernet transceivers sold for applications in mega data centers in 2018, according to a new report from LightCounting.



This market segment grew by more than 50% in 2016 and more than 70% in 2017. However, the demand for optics from some of these key cloud customers started to slow down in the second half of 2018. The report cites several factors contributing to the slowing demand for optics from the cloud companies in 2019, including:

  • Excess inventory of 100GbE accumulated by the end of last year.
  • Transition to new switches based on Tomahawk 3 ASICs and some constraints in the supply chain related to it.
  • Uncertainty in continuing economic growth and escalating trade war between the US and China.
  • New regulations and penalties faced by the leading Cloud companies in the US and Europe related to data privacy and monopolistic practices of these very large vendors.

LightCounting says the first two issues in the list above are temporary and these may be resolved in the second half of 2019, but the third and especially the fourth one may limit growth of the largest cloud companies in the years to come.

Nevertheless, LightCounting expects that demand for optics from the cloud companies will return to growth in 2020-2024. Sales of new products including 100GbE DR1, 200GbE, 2x200GbE and 400GbE DR4 (including 4x100GbE) modules will lead this growth. Several new DWDM and AOC products will contribute to this trend.

https://www.lightcounting.com/News_071819.cfm


Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Cignal AI: Compact modular optical sales exceed $275M

Compact modular optical hardware is being used in more network applications than ever before, according to the latest Optical Applications Report from market research firm Cignal AI. The report finds that almost 30% of North American optical hardware shipments are mow in compact modular format, which was first used by cloud operators for data center interconnect applications but now includes many other operators and applications.

Market share leaders include the Ciena Waveserver, Infinera CX and Groove, and Cisco 1000 series.

“Network applications for the compact modular form factor have expanded well beyond the original data center interconnect deployments,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware at Cignal AI. “Applications now include traditional telco networks, metro and long haul deployments, and even some early trials for subsea deployment. We expect this spending trend to increase in 2019 as new compact modular products come to market from a variety of vendors.”



Some highlights from Cignal AI:

  • Compact modular hardware sales exceeded $275 million in Q1 and are tracking to exceed $1 billion in revenue this year. 
  • Growth was most pronounced in North America this quarter, where it accounted for almost 30% of the entire optical market and is expected to continue advancing through 2023.
  • Ciena expanded its dominance in compact modular with over 50% market share in Q1. The combined Infinera/Coriant held on to second place despite declining sales.
  • Acacia AC1200-based platforms are expected to have an impact starting next quarter. Cisco compact modular sales paused in Q1 in anticipation of the NCS1004 platform.
  • Almost 500k physical coherent ports have shipped in the last 12 months. Currently, over 70% of coherent ports are shipped by the top five vendors in the market.
  • After a 2018 recovery year, long haul port shipments are starting to pick up. Metro growth is advancing at a similar pace, as next-generation coherent enables an upgrade from 100Gbps.
  • Packet OTN growth is slowing. New deployments are limited to China and parts of APAC as networks in other regions evolve away from the packet OTN architecture.

https://cignal.ai/2019/07/compact-modular-sales-expand-reaching-over-275m/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PR

Sunday, July 7, 2019

IDC: Worldwide public cloud spending to double by 2023

IDC is predicting that worldwide spending on public cloud services and infrastructure will more than double over the 2019-2023 period.

The latest update to IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Public Cloud Services Spending Guide forecasts a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.3%, public cloud spending, taking the market from $229 billion in 2019 to nearly $500 billion in 2023.

"Adoption of public (shared) cloud services continues to grow rapidly as enterprises, especially in professional services, telecommunications, and retail, continue to shift from traditional application software to software as a service (SaaS) and from traditional infrastructure to infrastructure as a service (IaaS) to empower customer experience and operational-led digital transformation (DX) initiatives," said Eileen Smith, program director, Customer Insights and Analysis.



Some highlights from IDC:

  • Software as a Service (SaaS) will be the largest category of cloud computing, capturing more than half of all public cloud spending in throughout the forecast. SaaS spending, which is comprised of applications and system infrastructure software (SIS), will be dominated by applications purchases. The leading SaaS applications will be customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource management (ERM). SIS spending will be led by purchases of security software and system and service management software.
  • Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) will be the second largest category of public cloud spending throughout the forecast, followed by Platform as a Service (PaaS). IaaS spending, comprised of servers and storage devices, will also be the fastest growing category of cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 32.0%. PaaS spending will grow nearly as fast (29.9% CAGR) led by purchases of data management software, application platforms, and integration and orchestration middleware.
  • Three industries – professional services, discrete manufacturing, and banking – will account for more than one third of all public cloud services spending throughout the forecast. While SaaS will be the leading category of investment for all industries, IaaS will see its share of spending increase significantly for industries that are building data and compute intensive services. For example, IaaS spending will represent more than 40% of public cloud services spending by the professional services industry in 2023 compared to less than 30% for most other industries. Professional services will also see the fastest growth in public cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 25.6%.
  • On a geographic basis, the United States will be the largest public cloud services market, accounting for more than half the worldwide total through 2023. Western Europe will be the second largest market with nearly 20% of the worldwide total. China will experience the fastest growth in public cloud services spending over the five-year forecast period with a 49.1% CAGR. Latin America will also deliver strong public cloud spending growth with a 38.3% CAGR.
  • Very large businesses (more than 1000 employees) will account for more than half of all public cloud spending throughout the forecast, while medium-size businesses (100-499 employees) will deliver around 16% of the worldwide total. Small businesses (10-99 employees) will trail large businesses (500-999 employees) by a few percentage points while the spending share from small offices (1-9 employees) will be in the low single digits. All the company size categories except for very large businesses will experience spending growth greater than the overall market.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45340719

See also