Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

IDC: LTE Router/Gateway market to hit $1.9 billion in 2022

The LTE router/gateway market will grow from approximately $804.2 million in 2018 to $1.9 billion in 2022 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4%, according to a new report from IDC. Regionally, North America will remain the largest consumer of LTE routers/gateways, but Asia/Pacific, including Japan and China, will grow the fastest over the forecast period supported by continued expansion and/or densification of macro LTE networks in the region.

"The enterprise LTE appliance market is seeing rapid uptake globally, prompting incumbent suppliers and new players to seek differentiation to demonstrate value. Some are focusing on the software layer, or wireless SD-WAN, while others are leaning on their technology heritage in addressing IoT requirements. Whatever the strategy, branch, mobile, and IoT are emerging as the three main use cases for LTE routers and gateways," said Patrick Filkins, senior research analyst, IoT and Mobile Network Infrastructure.

IDC highlights three main use cases that LTE router/gateway suppliers are moving to address:

  • Branch connectivity: Products designed for stationary, onsite functionality are often integrated with LTE, WiFi, and wired functionality. In addition, solutions often incorporate enhanced security features (e.g., firewall, threat management). An overarching software-defined component, often delivered from the cloud, can be incorporated to deliver enhanced management and coordination.
  • Mobile connectivity: Mobile LTE routers are often affixed to vehicles, rail systems, or other "on the move objects" that require connectivity. An emerging use case is for public safety networks, including first-responder networks, where cellular connectivity can meet the stringent demand for mission-critical communications.
  • Internet of Things/M2M: These solutions, which can be gateways, often offer a base feature such as protocol conversion but may incorporate the advanced features included in branch and mobile solutions as well.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=US44528618

IDC: 5G network infrastructure market to grow at 118% CAGR

The worldwide 5G network infrastructure market is expected to grow from approximately $528 million in 2018 to $26 billion in 2022, according to IDC's inaugural forecast for this market segment, and representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 118%.

The 5G network infrastructure market includes 5G RAN, 5G NG core, NFVI, routing and optical backhaul.

IDC expects 5G RAN to be the largest market sub-segment through the forecast period, in line with prior mobile generations.

In addition to 5G NR and 5G NG core, procurement patterns indicate communications service providers (SPs) will need to invest in adjacent domains, including backhaul and NFVI, to support the continued push to cloud-native, software-led architectures.

"Early 5G adopters are laying the groundwork for long-term success by investing in 5G RAN, NFVI, optical underlays, and next-generation routers and switches. Many are also in the process of experimenting with the 5G NG core. The long-term benefit of making these investments now will be when the standards-compliant SA 5G core is combined with a fully virtualized, cloud-ready RAN in the early 2020s. This development will enable many communications SPs to expand their value proposition and offer customized services across a diverse set of enterprise verticals through the use of network slicing," says Patrick Filkins, senior research analyst, IoT and Mobile Network Infrastructure.

The report, Worldwide 5G Network Infrastructure Forecast, 2018-2022 (IDC #US44392218), presents IDC's inaugural forecast for the 5G network infrastructure market. Revenue is forecast for both the 5G RAN and 5G NG Core segments and each of the three related sub-segments (NFVI, Routing Backhaul, and Optical Backhaul). The report also provides a market overview, including drivers and challenges for communications service providers and advice for technology suppliers.

Monday, January 21, 2019

Dell'Oro: 5G RAN investment to approach $160 billion in 5 years

Robust demand for 5G NR will propel the cumulative worldwide RAN market to approach $160 B over the next five years, according to a new forecast report from Dell'Oro Group.

Other highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • 5G NR will scale at a significantly faster pace than LTE.
  • Sub 6 GHz spectrum is expected to drive the lion share of the RAN capex (Figure 1)
  • New capex to address IoT, Fixed Wireless Access, In-Building, and Public Safety opportunities for both private and public deployments will comprise a double-digit share of the RAN market by the outer part of the forecast period.
  • Sub 6 GHz Massive MIMO transceiver shipments are projected to eclipse 200 million.

“Even if 5G will be just another G initially, the reality is that for the carriers with the right spectrum assets, the mid-band Massive MIMO business case can be extremely compelling for the MBB use case,” said Stefan Pongratz, analyst with the Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, we are more optimistic today about the mmW opportunity than we were a year ago. But clearly it will take some with the current inter-site distances before the cost per GB economics will be as favorable with the mmW spectrum as the mid-band sub 6 GHz spectrum using the existing macro grid and Massive MIMO,” continued Pongratz.

http://www.delloro.com/5-year-forecast-report/robust-5g-nr-growth-propels-total-ran-investments-toward-160-b

Sunday, January 13, 2019

Gartner: Worldwide semiconductor revenue was up 13.4% in 2018

Worldwide semiconductor revenue totaled $476.7 billion in 2018, a 13.4 percent increase from 2017, according to preliminary results by Gartner.

“The largest semiconductor supplier, Samsung Electronics, increased its lead as the No. 1 vendor due to the booming DRAM market,” said Andrew Norwood, Vice President, Analyst at Gartner. “While 2018 continued to build on the growth established in 2017, the overall gains driven by memory were at half the 2017 growth rate. This is attributed to memory entering a downturn late in 2018.”

Some highlights from Gartner:

  • The combined revenue of the top 25 semiconductor vendors increased by 16.3 percent during 2018 and accounted for 79.3 percent of the market, outperforming the rest of the market, which saw a milder 3.6 percent revenue increase. This is due to the concentration of the memory vendors in the top-25 ranking.
  • In terms of semiconductor devices, memory was simultaneously the largest (35 percent) and highest-performing device category for 2018 with 27.2 percent revenue growth. This was driven by increases in ASP for DRAM for much of the year with the exception of the fourth quarter of 2018.
  • Intel’s semiconductor revenue grew by 12.2 percent compared with 2017, driven by a combination of unit and average selling price (ASP) growth. 
  • Major memory vendors that performed strongly in 2018 include SK hynix — driven by DRAM, and Microchip Technology — due to its acquisition of Microsemi. The top four vendors in 2017 retained their ranking in 2018.
  • Within the memory segment, NAND flash suffered a marked slowdown with ASP declines through much of the year due to oversupply. This device category still managed to show a 6.5 percent revenue increase, driven by higher adoption of solid-state drives (SSDs) and increasing content in smartphones.
  • The second-largest semiconductor category, application-specific-standard products (ASSPs), saw limited growth of 5.1 percent due to a stalling smartphone market combined with a tablet market that continues to decline. Leading vendors in this segment area, including Qualcomm and MediaTek, are aggressively expanding into adjacent markets with stronger prospects for growth, including automotive and IoT applications.
  • “2019 will be a very different market from the previous two years,” said Mr. Norwood. “Memory has already entered a downturn, there is the looming trade war between the U.S. and China, and mounting uncertainty about the global economy.”


https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/2019-01-07-gartner-says-worldwide-semiconductor-revenue-grew-13-

Thursday, January 10, 2019

IDC: Cloud infrastructure spending surged 47% yoy in 3Q18

Vendor revenue from sales of IT infrastructure products (server, enterprise storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud environments, including public and private cloud, grew 47.2% year over year in the third quarter of 2018 (3Q18), reaching $16.8 billion, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker.

IDC also raised its forecast for total spending (vendor revenue plus channel mark-up) on cloud IT infrastructure in 2018 to $65.2 billion with year-over-year growth of 37.2%.

"The first three quarters of 2018 were exceptional for the IT Infrastructure market across all deployment environments and the increase in IT infrastructure investments by public cloud datacenters was especially strong driven by the opening of new datacenters and infrastructure refresh in existing datacenters," said Natalya Yezhkova, research director, IT Infrastructure and Platforms. "After such a strong year we expect some slowdown in 2019 as the overall market cools down and some cloud providers work through adjustments in their supply chain. However, IDC expects the shift in IT infrastructure spending toward cloud environments will continue."

Some highlights from IDC:

  • Quarterly spending on public cloud IT infrastructure has more than doubled in the past two years reaching $12.1 billion in 3Q18 and growing 56.1% year over year, while spending on private cloud infrastructure grew at half of this rate, 28.3%, reaching $4.7 billion. Since 2013, when IDC started tracking IT infrastructure deployments in different environments, public cloud has represented the majority of spending on cloud IT infrastructure and in 2018 IDC expects this share will peak at 68.8% with spending on public cloud infrastructure growing at an annual rate of 44.7%. Spending on private cloud will grow 23.3% year over year in 2018.
  • In 3Q18, for the first time, quarterly vendor revenues from IT infrastructure product sales into cloud environments surpassed revenues from sales into traditional IT environments, accounting for 50.9% of the total worldwide IT infrastructure vendor revenues, up from 43.6% a year ago. However, for the full year 2018, spending on cloud IT infrastructure will remain below the 50% mark at 47.4%. Spending on all three technology segments in cloud IT environments is forecast to deliver double-digit growth in 2018. Compute platforms will be the fastest growing at 59.1%, while spending on Ethernet switches and storage platforms will grow 18.5% and 20.4%, respectively.
  • The rate of growth for the traditional (non-cloud) IT infrastructure segment slowed down from the first half of the year to 14.8%, which is still exceptional for this market segment. For the full year, worldwide spending on traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure is expected to grow by 12.3% as the market goes through a technology refresh cycle, which will wind down by 2019. By 2022, we expect that traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure will only represent 42.4% of total worldwide IT infrastructure spending (down from 52.6% in 2018). This share loss and the growing share of cloud environments in overall spending on IT infrastructure is common across all regions.
  • All regions grew their cloud IT Infrastructure revenues by double digits in 3Q18. Revenue growth was the fastest in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) at 62.6% year over year, with China growing at an even higher rate of 88.7%. Other regions among the fastest growing in 3Q18 included Japan (48.2%), USA (44.2%), and Canada (43.4%).
  • Long-term, IDC expects spending on cloud IT infrastructure to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.3%, reaching $88.6 billion in 2022 and accounting for 57.6% of total IT infrastructure spend. Public cloud datacenters will account for 66.3% of this amount, growing at an 13.6% CAGR. Spending on private cloud infrastructure will grow at a CAGR of 12.6%.


Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Ovum: 1.3 billion connections by the end of 2023

Global mobile connections will total ten billion by 2023 according to forecasts provided by Ovum and published by 5G Americas. Also, by the end of 2023, global 5G connections are expected to reach 1.3 billion, an industry trade organization composed of leading telecommunications service providers and manufacturers.

“Growth of LTE is unabated, as LTE added 239 million connections worldwide in the third quarter of 2018,” stated Kristin Paulin, Senior Analyst, Ovum. “Ovum forecasts that LTE will continue to grow well into 2022 and we will see a decline in subscriptions beginning around 2023 due to 5G growth. Regardless, GSM, HSPA and LTE will still be deployed worldwide in 2023.”



Some highlights from Ovum and 5G Americas:

North America

  • North America’s strong leadership in LTE will be replaced with early 5G connections building in 2019 and is forecast to reach 186 million 5G connections by 2023 for a 32 percent share of market.
  • Ovum forecasts 336 thousand 5G connections in North America by the end of 2019 representing 47 percent of total global 5G connections.
  • LTE achieved a penetration rate of 107 percent with 390 million LTE connections as of third quarter 2018, compared to the population of 365 million in North America. This penetration rate compares to the next two highest regions, Oceania, Eastern and Southeastern Asia at 87 percent and Western Europe at 71 percent.
  • 390 million LTE connections for net gain of 51 million new LTE customers year-over-year  
  • LTE is forecast to peak at about 473 million connections at the end of 2020 (including M2M)
  • 32 million 5G connections forecast in 2021 – 6 percent of all North American connections -- growing to 186 million 5G connections in 2023 and 32 percent of all North America connections

Latin America and the Caribbean

  • Latin America and the Caribbean continues steady growth of LTE connections and is forecast to reach more than half a billion LTE subscriptions by 2022.  
  • LTE continued its healthy growth with market share increasing from 26 percent to 37 percent year-over-year at the end of September 2018. 
  • 698 million total mobile wireless subscriptions including 257 million LTE connections; 78 million new LTE connections added year-over-year from 3Q 2017 and 17.5 million new LTE connections in 3Q alone
  • By the end of 2022, LTE is forecast to reach 510 million connections (forecast includes M2M) and a 67 percent share of market with total number of connections reaching 767 million


Global

  • Forecasts for LTE continue to show very positive growth with milestones of nearly 4 billion at end of 2018; more than 5 billion by 2020; and about 6 billion in 2022 at which time LTE growth will decline due to the mass market growth of 5G.  In 2023, LTE connections will decline to 5.7 billion when nearly 1 billion GSM connections and 2 billion HSPA connections will remain.
  • 5G will trend upwards beginning in 2019 with less than 1 million global connections; by 2020, this will grow to 37 million and then more than quadruple to 156 million in 2021; by 2022, 5G connections will exceed 500 million and the 2023 forecast puts 5G global connections at 1.3 billion.
  • 972 million new LTE subscriptions year-over-year from 3Q 2017; 35 percent growth
  • 3.7 billion LTE connections out of a total 8.45 billion cellular connections worldwide; worldwide market share for LTE is 44 percent   
  • LTE connections forecast to reach 6 billion by year-end 2022 (forecast includes M2M)
  • LTE global market share forecast to reach 61percent by year end 2022
  • 5G is forecast to reach 1.3 billion connections by the end of 2023


http://www.5gamericas.org/en/

Sunday, December 16, 2018

IDC: Worldwide Industry Cloud revenue to reach $6.1 billion in 2018

Five large industry groups, including healthcare, public sector, finance, retail/wholesale, and manufacturing, are expected to spend a total of $37.5 billion on industry cloud solutions in 2018, according to the Worldwide Semiannual Industry Cloud Tracker from International Data Corporation (IDC). The report forecasts the overall market to reach $45.4 billion in 2019.

"IDC's latest forecast shows that industry cloud growth rates will continue to accelerate over the next three years, which is very unusual for multi-billion-dollar markets. This growth is being driven by rapidly-digitizing industries like healthcare, financial services, and manufacturing, where industry clouds are becoming the cornerstones for next-generation growth and innovation strategies," said Frank Gens, senior vice president & chief analyst at IDC.

Some highlights:

  • the U.S. will make up close to three-quarters of the overall market in 2018. 
  • Japan and China expected to grow the most year over year at 54% and 47% respectively. 
  • Other regions will also outperform their 2018 growth rates.
  • The healthcare provider market in the U.S. is expected to pass the $10 billion mark in 2018 for the first time while the Western Europe market for healthcare industry cloud is also forecast to hit a landmark in 2018 by crossing the $1 billion mark. 
  • Relative to all other regions, Japan can be considered a late adopter to industry cloud deploymen but will pass the $1 billion mark by 2022. 
  • China will pass the $1 billion mark by 2022. 


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44551518

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

IDC: Ethernet switch market up 8.1%; Router market down 5.1% in 3Q18

The Worldwide Ethernet switch market (Layer 2/3) recorded $7.3 billion in revenue in 3Q18, an increase of 8.1% YoY, while total enterprise and service provider (SP) router market revenues declined 5.1% YoY in 3Q18 to $3.7 billion, according to IDC's Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and IDC Quarterly Router Tracker.

"Digital Transformation and adoption of Third Platform technologies continue to drive demand for network transformation and in turn the Ethernet switching equipment market," said Rohit Mehra, vice president, Network Infrastructure, at IDC. "While hyperscalers and cloud service providers are pushing consumption at the high end of the switching market, there remains strong growth in the enterprise campus and lower speed switching platforms too, highlighting the increased demands of the network from organizations of all sizes."



Some highlights from IDC:

  • 100Gb Ethernet switch revenues continue to grow rapidly. Port shipments for 100Gb switches rose 154.6% year over year to 3.5 million. 
  • 100Gb revenues broke the $1 billion barrier in 3Q18, reaching $1.1 billion to make up 14.8% of the market's total revenue. 
  • 25Gb ports saw even higher growth rates with port shipments up 251.0% to 2.6 million and revenue increasing 219.6% year over year for 3.7% of the market's revenue. 
  • 40Gb port shipments rose too, growing 12.6% year over year to 1.3 million, while revenues declined 10.4% for 7.5% of the market's total. 
  • Lower-speed campus switches continued to see strong demand. 
  • 10Gb port shipments rose 16.0% year over year to make up 28.8% of the market's revenue. 
  • 1Gb switches saw port shipments grow 8.4% year over year to 116.4 million, representing 42.3% of the market's total revenues.
  • The worldwide enterprise and service provider router market fell by 5.1% on a year-over-year basis in 3Q18 with the major service provider segment, which accounts for 76.2% of revenues, declining by 7.3%. 
  • The enterprise portion of the router market grew 2.5% year over year. 
  • From a regional perspective, the combined service provider and enterprise router market declined 24.4% in the U.S., where service provider revenues dropped 31.5% while enterprise revenues grew 8.7%. 
  • Cisco finished 3Q18 with a 3.8% year-over-year increase in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 54.4%. In the hotly contested 25Gb/50Gb/100Gb segment, Cisco is the market leader with 39.4% revenue, which is up from the 34.6% share it held in this segment in the previous quarter. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue declined 2.2% year over year, with enterprise router revenue increasing 4.1% but service provider revenues declining 5.3%. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router market share increased to 42.7% from 35.7% last quarter.
  • Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue rose 21.3% on an annualized basis but was down 7.5% sequentially from 2Q18 to 3Q18 with market share of 8.6%. The company's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue rose 2.2% year over year with a market share of 23.5%.
  • Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues increase 27.6% in 3Q18, bringing its share to 6.6% of the total market, up from 5.6% a year earlier. With its focus on the datacenter, the company continues to cater to the higher end of Ethernet switch speeds with 100Gb revenues accounting for 66.1% of the company's total revenue, indicating the company's focus on cloud providers and large enterprises.
  • HPE's Ethernet switch revenue grew 12.0% year over year but was off 4.9% sequentially. The company's market share rose to 5.7%, up from 5.5% a year earlier.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue grew 3.8% in 3Q19, bringing its market share to 3.0%. Juniper saw a 15.2% decline in combined enterprise and service provider router sales, bringing its market share in the router market to 13.4%.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44527718

Dell’Oro: Data Center Interconnect market to grow 85% by 2022

The aggregate sales of equipment for Data Center Interconnect (DCI) infrastructure will grow by 85 percent over the next five years, according to a new report published by Dell’Oro Group.  The report looks at the infrastructure market from three network perspectives: Optical Transport, Data Center Core, and Wide Area Networks (WAN).

“Data traffic within the cloud is increasing at unabated rates, and DCI networks are integral to carrying the traffic,” said Shin Umeda, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “We see strong demand for a wide range of networking gear for DCI, from the fiber optic layer up to the packet forwarding layer, and our forecast takes into account how these network layers are interrelated,” added Umeda.

Highlights from Dell'Oro:

  • DCI will drive strong demand for Optical Transport, Ethernet Data Center Switch, and Routing technologies.
  • Optical Transport networks will account for the majority of the DCI market value over the next five years.
  • DCI market share leaders for 2017 were Ciena for Optical Transport networks, and Juniper for WAN and Data Center Core networks.

http://www.delloro.com

Sunday, December 9, 2018

Dell'Oro: Huawei represents 28% of global telecom equipment market

Huawei captured a 28 percent share of the telecom equipment market in 3Q18, according to Dell'Oro Group. This represents a 4 percent gain market share since 2015. During this period, Ericsson’s and Nokia’s market share declined one and three percentage points, respectively.

Some highlights from Dell'Oro:

  • For the first nine months of 2018, the top five equipment manufacturers were Huawei, Nokia, Ericsson, Cisco, and ZTE. Combined these five companies accounted for about 75% of the worldwide service provider equipment market revenue.
  • The overall telecom equipment market declined 2 percent year-over-year for the 1Q 2018 through 3Q18 period. Robust demand for Optical Transport and Microwave Transmission equipment was not enough to offset declining Core and Service Provider Router revenues.
  • Huawei’s telecom equipment revenue is nearly as large as Nokia and Ericsson combined.
  • Huawei’s revenue share gains over the past four years have been most pronounced in the Core, Router, and Optical Transport Markets.

http://www.delloro.com/delloro-group/key-takeaways-telecom-equipment-market-3q-2018

Thursday, December 6, 2018

Vertical Systems: Managed SD-WAN services tops $282M in US

U.S. revenue is estimated at more than $282 million for Managed SD-WAN services in 2018, according to a new report from Vertical Systems Group covering service migration, network connectivity and market sizing.

This figure is based on billable U.S. customer sites and WAN access connections installed and under management.

A Managed SD-WAN Service is defined as a carrier-grade network offering for enterprise and business customers, which is managed by a network operator, and delivered over a Software Defined Network (SDN) service architecture that has separate control (overlay) and data (underlay) planes. Not included in this analysis are DIY (Do It Yourself) SD-WAN solutions purchased directly from an SD-WAN technology supplier or a systems integrator.

“Carrier-grade Managed SD-WAN Services in the U.S. began to generate notable revenue in the second half of 2018. Prior to this, most providers supported customers with pilot SD-WAN services that were not substantively monetized,” said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. “For 2019, we expect a major boost in revenue with network operators fully ramped up to sell, deliver and support Managed SD-WAN Services. Moreover, a key driver for managed services is the growing appreciation that migration to SD-WAN is considerably more complex than the promise of ‘easily deployed’ plug-and-play DIY solutions.”

Providers actively selling Managed SD-WAN services in the U.S. include the following companies (in alphabetical order): Aryaka, AT&T, CenturyLink, Cogent, Comcast, Fusion Connect, GTT, Hughes, Masergy, MetTel, Sprint, Verizon, Windstream and Zayo. Other network operators throughout the world offer or plan to offer Managed SD-WAN Services in the U.S. market.

https://www.verticalsystems.com/2018/12/05/sd-wan-tops-282m/

Tuesday, December 4, 2018

Parks Associates: 83% of Smart TVs are connected

New research published by Parks Associates reveals that 83% of smart TV owners connect their device to the internet, up from 70% in 2014. Ownership of streaming media players has almost doubled from about 21% of U.S. broadband households in 2014 to almost 40% in 2018, while smart TV ownership has increased from 34% to 53% during the same time period.

"Users' appetite for content and their pattern of consumption have only increased as video has become more portable and tailored," said Joel Fineman, Director, Publisher Development, Premion. "Driven by Netflix's user experience, viewers are demanding more of incumbent media leaders."

"The internet is disrupting the pay television and original video production businesses in every corner of the globe, right before our very eyes," said Jon Cody, CEO/Founder, TV4 Entertainment.

http://www.parksassociates.com


Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Cignal AI: Optical hardware sales surging in Asia

Optical hardware sales throughout Asia surged in 3Q18, fueled by double digit increases in China and Japan, and a turnaround in India, according to the third quarter 2018 (3Q18) Optical Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI, which is raising its market estimates for Asia.

CignalAI said sales in North America continued to decline for the eighth consecutive quarter, as weakness in the traditional operator market was not offset by strong sales to cloud and color operators.

“China bounced back more quickly than expected following the ZTE shutdown, and outside vendors Nokia and Ciena saw a triple-digit increase in Japan during the third quarter,” said Scott Wilkinson, lead analyst, Optical Hardware for Cignal AI. “RoAPAC contributed to the success in Asia as well. While we expected a slight slowdown this year there will likely be net increases for the year, driven largely by sales in India.”


Other findings in the 3Q18 Optical Hardware Report;

  • Ciena was the only vendor among the top 5 that grew revenue in North America, thanks to sales to cloud and colo operators.
  • EMEA saw double-digit growth during the quarter, and this momentum is anticipated to continue given traditional fourth-quarter spending increases.
  • An expected turnaround in CALA did not materialize, as spending in the region continued to decline.

https://cignal.ai/

Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Cisco predicts global IP traffic to grow over 3X from 2017-2022

Global IP traffic across public and private networks is expected to reach 396 exabytes per month by 2022, up from 122 exabytes per month in 2017, according to Cisco's newly updated Visual Networking Index (VNI). Essentially, global IP traffic will triple in the 5 year period driven by more users, devices, higher resolution video and other trends.

"Since we first started the VNI Forecast in 2005, traffic has increased 56-fold, amassing a 36 percent CAGR with more people, devices and applications accessing IP networks,” said Jonathan Davidson, senior vice president and general manager, Service Provider Business, Cisco. “Global service providers are focused on transforming their networks to better manage and route traffic, while delivering premium experiences. Our ongoing research helps us gain and share valuable insights into technology and architectural transitions our customers must make to succeed.”

Cisco's forecasting relies upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world network usage data.

Some highlights of the latest Cisco VNI:

  • By 2022, there will be 28.5 billion fixed and mobile personal devices and connections, up from 18 billion in 2017—or 3.6 networked devices/connections per person, from 2.4 per person.
  • More than half of all devices and connections will be machine-to-machine by 2022, up from 34 percent in 2017.
  • By 2022, Average global fixed broadband speeds will nearly double from 39.0 Mbps to 75.4 Mbps.
  • Average global Wi-Fi connection speeds will more than double from 24.4 Mbps to 54.0 Mbps.
  • Average global mobile connection speeds will more than triple from 8.7 Mbps to 28.5 Mbps.
  • IP video traffic will quadruple by 2022. As a result, it will make up an even larger percentage of total IP traffic than before—up to 82 percent from 75 percent.
  • Gaming traffic is expected to grow nine-fold from 2017 to 2022. It will represent four percent of overall IP traffic in 2022.
  • Virtual and augmented reality traffic will skyrocket as more consumers and businesses use the technologies. By 2022, virtual and augmented reality traffic will reach 4.02 exabytes/month, up from 0.33 exabytes/month in 2017.

Regional IP traffic growth details (2017 – 2022)

APAC: 173 exabytes/month by 2022, 32 percent CAGR, four-times growth
North America: 108 exabytes/month by 2022, 21 percent CAGR, three-times growth
Western Europe: 50 exabytes/month 2022, 22 percent CAGR, three-times growth
Central & Eastern Europe: 25 exabytes/month by 2022, 26 percent CAGR, three-times growth
Middle East and Africa: 21 exabytes/month by 2022, 41 percent CAGR, six-times growth
Latin America: 19 exabytes/month by 2022, 21 percent CAGR, three-times growth

https://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/white-paper-c11-741490.html






Sunday, November 18, 2018

Dell'Oro: Mobile infrastructure market growing at fastest clip since '14

Following three consecutive years of contracting worldwide Radio Access Networks (RAN) revenues, the overall Mobile Infrastructure market improved at a high single-digit rate in the third quarter—recording the strongest growth rate since 2014, according to Dell'Oro Group.

ZTE’s RAN business gained five points share and recovered rapidly in the quarter. The vendor was able to reclaim its number four position during 3Q 2018.

“The results in the quarter support the thesis we have communicated for some time that market conditions are improving,” said Stefan Pongratz, Senior Director with Dell’Oro Group. “In addition to resurging investments in the North America region propelled by operators investing in LTE and 5G ready networks, the Asia Pacific region rebounded after multiple quarters of steep declines, reflecting improved momentum in China,” continued Pongratz.

The report also shows that while the vendor rankings for the top three vendors remained unchanged with Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia leading the market, the gap between Huawei and Ericsson narrowed sequentially. ZTE was able to reclaim its number four position after Samsung briefly surpassed ZTE during 2Q 2018.

http://www.delloro.com/

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Cignal AI: Record cloud and colo optical hardware spending

Sales of optical equipment to the cloud and colo market, which includes Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, reached record levels during 2Q18 and were nearly a quarter of all North American operator purchases during 2Q18, according to the most recent Optical Customer Markets Report issued by networking component and equipment market research firm Cignal AI.

“While cloud and colo spending is still not near traditional telco demand for optical transport equipment, the balance is shifting. This is particularly true in North America, where cloud and colo operators now provide both technical and financial leadership to the supply chain,” said Andrew Schmitt, Directing Analyst at Cignal AI.

Some highlights:

  • Incumbent spending accounts for the largest share of all optical spending in the market. In fact, incumbent spending in China is as much as all spending by other incumbent operators worldwide, combined. Outlays by EMEA incumbents increased again in the most recent quarter.
  • Cable MSO spending in North America continues to be very strong and grew both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.
  • Ciena led other vendors in direct sales to the cloud/colo market led by strength from the WaveServer platform. Also, newly-combined Infinera and Coriant became the second largest supplier of optical equipment to these customers. Huawei also continues to grow its market share as a result of growing demand from Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent.


https://cignal.ai/2018/10/cignal-ai-reports-record-cloud-and-colo-optical-hardware-spending/

Sunday, October 14, 2018

Intel + Ovum: How big is the 5G opportunity?

How big is the 5G opportunity?

Well, according to a newly released “5G Economics of Entertainment Report” commissioned by Intel and conducted by Ovum, it is forecast that over the next decade (2019-2028) media and entertainment companies will be competing to win a share of a near $3 trillion cumulative wireless revenue opportunity.

Experiences enabled by 5G networks will account for nearly half of this revenue opportunity (close to $1.3 trillion).

“5G will inevitably shake up the media and entertainment landscape. It will be a major competitive asset if companies adapt. If not, they risk failure or even extinction. This wave of 5G transformation will not be the purview of any singular industry, and now is certainly the time for all business decision-makers to ask: Is your business 5G-ready?” stated  Jonathan Wood, general manager of Business Development & Partnerships, 5G Next Generation and Standards at Intel

Some highlights:

  • 2022: 5G accounts for nearly 20 percent of total telecom revenues – $47 billion of $253 billion
  • 2025: more than 55 percent of total revenues – $183 billion of $321 billion
  • 2028: nearly 80 percent of total revenues – $335 billion of $420 billion. The average monthly traffic per 5G subscriber will grow from 11.7GB in 2019 to 84.4GB per month in 2028, at which point video will account for 90 percent of all 5G traffic.




Thursday, October 4, 2018

IDC: Security spending to reach $133.7 billion in 2022

Worldwide spending on security-related hardware, software, and services is forecast to reach $133.7 billion in 2022, according to an new update to IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Security Spending Guide, amounting to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.9%. Security spending is forecasted to be $92.1 billion for 2018.

"Security remains an investment priority in every industry as companies seek to protect themselves from large-scale cyber attacks and to meet expanding regulatory requirements," said Eileen Smith, program director, Customer Insights and Analysis. "While security services are an important part of this investment strategy, companies are also investing in the infrastructure and applications needed to meet the challenges of a steadily evolving threat environment."

Some highlights:

  • Security-related services will be both the largest ($40.2 billion in 2018) and the fastest growing (11.9% CAGR) category of worldwide security spending. 
  • Managed security services will be the largest segment within the services category, delivering nearly 50% of the category total in 2022. 
  • Integration services and consulting services will be responsible for most of the remainder. 
  • Security software is the second-largest category with spending expected to total $34.4 billion in 2018. 
  • Endpoint security software will be the largest software segment throughout the forecast period, followed by identity and access management software and security and vulnerability management software. The latter will be the fastest growing software segment with a CAGR of 10.7%. Hardware spending will be led by unified threat management solutions, followed by firewall and content management.
  • Banking will be the industry making the largest investment in security solutions, growing from $10.5 billion in 2018 to $16.0 billion in 2022. 
  • Security-related services, led by managed security services, will account for more than half of the industry's spend throughout the forecast. The second and third largest industries, discrete manufacturing and federal/central government ($8.9 billion and $7.8 billion in 2018, respectively), will follow a similar pattern with services representing roughly half of each industry's total spending. The industries that will see the fastest growth in security spending will be telecommunications (13.1% CAGR), state/local government (12.3% CAGR), and the resource industry (11.8% CAGR).
  • The United States will be largest geographic market for security solutions with total spending of $39.3 billion this year. 
  • The United Kingdom will be the second largest geographic market in 2018 at $6.1 billion followed by China ($5.6 billion), Japan ($5.1 billion), and Germany ($4.6 billion). 


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44370418


Sunday, September 30, 2018

IDC: Cloud infrastructure spending continues double-digit growth rate

Vendor revenue from sales of infrastructure products (server, enterprise storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud IT, including public and private cloud, grew 48.4% year over year in the second quarter of 2018 (2Q18), reaching $15.4 billion, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker.

IDC also raised its forecast for total spending (vendor recognized revenue plus channel revenue) on cloud IT infrastructure in 2018 to $62.2 billion with year-over-year growth of 31.1%.

"As share of cloud environments in the overall spending on IT infrastructure continues to climb and approaches 50%, it is evident that cloud, which once used to be an emerging sector of the IT infrastructure industry, is now the norm. One of the tasks for enterprises now is not only to decide on what cloud resources to use but, actually, how to manage multiple cloud resources," said Natalya Yezhkova, research director, IT Infrastructure and Platforms. "End users' ability to utilize multi-cloud resources is an important driver of further proliferation for both public and private cloud environments."


Some highlights:

  • Quarterly spending on public cloud IT infrastructure has more than doubled in the past three years to $10.9 billion in 2Q18, growing 58.9% year over year.
  • By end of the year, public cloud will account for the majority, 68.2%, of the expected annual cloud IT infrastructure spending, growing at an annual rate of 36.9%.
  • In 2Q18, spending on private cloud infrastructure reached $4.6 billion, an annual increase of 28.2%. IDC estimates that for the full year 2018, private cloud will represent 14.8% of total IT infrastructure spending, growing 20.3% year over year.
  • The combined public and private cloud revenues accounted for 48.5% of the total worldwide IT infrastructure spending in 2Q18, up from 43.5% a year ago and will account for 46.6% of the total worldwide IT infrastructure spending for the full year. 
  • Spending in all technology segments in cloud IT environments is forecast to grow by double digits in 2018. Compute platforms will be the fastest growing at 46.6%, while spending on Ethernet switches and storage platforms will grow 18.0% and 19.2% year over year in 2018, respectively. Investments in all three technologies will increase across all cloud deployment models – public cloud, private cloud off-premises, and private cloud on-premises.
  • The traditional (non-cloud) IT infrastructure segment grew 21.1% from a year ago, a rate of growth comparable to 1Q18 and exceptional for this market segment, which is expected to decline in the coming years. At $16.4 billion in 2Q18 it still accounted for the majority, 51.5%, of total worldwide IT infrastructure spending. For the full year, worldwide spending on traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure is expected to grow by 10.3% as the market goes through a technology refresh cycle, which will wind down by 2019. By 2022, we expect that traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure will only represent 44.0% of total worldwide IT infrastructure spending (down from 51.5% in 2018). This share loss and the growing share of cloud environments in overall spending on IT infrastructure is common across all regions.
  • All regions grew their cloud IT Infrastructure revenue by double digits in 2Q18. Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) grew revenue the fastest, by 78.5% year over year. Within APeJ, China's cloud IT revenue almost doubled year over year, growing at 96.4%, while the rest of Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China) grew 50.4%. Other regions among the fastest growing in 2Q18 included Latin America (47.4%), USA (44.9%), and Japan (35.8%).

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Cignal AI: Compact modular optical equipment market to top $1 billion in 2018

The market for compact modular optical equipment is on track to top $1 billion in revenue this year, according to the latest Optical Applications Report from Cignal AI. the category includes equipment designed specifically for use in DCI, open & disaggregated hardware applications.

Cignal AI has raised its CY18 forecast for 200G and 400G coherent port shipments and cut its 100G coherent forecast.

“Operators are rapidly adopting second and third generation coherent technology as they seek to lower their cost per bit and achieve better performance. This has resulted in higher than expected demand for 200G and 400G speeds this year, at the expense of first-generation coherent,” said Andrew Schmitt, lead analyst for Cignal AI. “Compounding this trend is the growing adoption of 200G CFP2 DCO modules, which allows coherent technology to integrate with switches and routers more easily than earlier solutions.”

Some highlights from Cignal AI:

  • Ciena and Huawei Top Compact Modular Market Growth – In this record quarter, Ciena and Huawei were the fastest-growing vendors in the compact modular segment. Ciena benefits from its third-generation coherent technology, while Huawei was lifted by greater adoption from Chinese cloud operators. New entrant Nokia also grew share in its second quarter of serving this market.
  • Packet-OTN Market Grows with Incumbent Adoption – More incumbent network operators are using packet-OTN switching hardware to upgrade their transport networks. In North America, this segment grew 30 percent year-over-year as result of more deployments by Verizon and other large incumbents. Growth was also significant in EMEA and India, where Nokia has taken significant market share.
  • Third Generation Coherent Gaining Momentum – Even though the overall market slowed in 2Q18 as a result of ZTE’s shutdown, other vendors experienced healthy sales growth. Third generation coherent solutions are picking up steam with Ciena’s 400G offering doing well. Acacia, Huawei, Nokia, and NTT Electronics based solutions will reach the market within the next two quarters to challenge Ciena’s lead.
https://cignal.ai/2018/09/compact-modular-optical-equipment-market-on-pace-to-break-1-billion-in-2018/


Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Equinix: Interconnection bandwidth growth

Equinix is projecting that interconnection bandwidth will grow to 8,200+ Terabits per second (Tbps) of capacity by 2021, or the equivalent of 33 Zettabytes (ZB) of data exchange per year.

Equinix's newly issued Global Interconnection Index (GXI) forecasts a significant five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48%, almost double the expected 26% CAGR of global IP Traffic as cited in Cisco's VNI report. The forecast also represents a dramatic increase over the previous year's projection.

Interconnection bandwidth is defined in this study as direct and private traffic exchange between key business partners.

"Significant macro, technology and regulatory trends are converging to form an unprecedented era of complexity and risk and forcing the integration of physical and digital worlds," said Sara Baack, Chief Marketing Officer for Equinix, Inc. "The second volume of the Global Interconnection Index has found that companies are solving their increasing digital requirements by directly connecting to key business partners through Interconnection, as traditional forms of connectivity do not meet the demanding requirements of today's businesses."



Some highlights

  • The United States is expected to see compound growth of 45% per annum, contributing more than 40% of Interconnection Bandwidth globally.
  • A growing number of regulations requiring data compliance is serving as a catalyst of growth for Europe, which is predicted to grow 48% per annum, contributing to 23% of Interconnection Bandwidth globally.
  • Asia-Pacific is anticipated to grow 51% per annum, contributing more than 27% of Interconnection Bandwidth globally.
  • Telecommunications will remain the largest industry user of interconnection bandwidth in 2021, representing 24% of the market.
  • Enterprises interconnecting to network providers will represent the largest volume (66%) of total interconnection bandwidth.
  • Emerging market dynamics and growing digital business adoption positions Latin America for expected 59% per annum growth, contributing more than 9% of Interconnection Bandwidth globally.
  • Enterprises interconnecting to cloud & IT services will represent the fastest growth (98%) in interconnection bandwidth.
  • The industries with the fastest Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of interconnection Bandwidth Consumption include: Energy & Utility (73% CAGR), Healthcare & Life Sciences (70% CAGR) and Wholesale & Retail Trade (67% CAGR).

https://www.equinix.com/global-interconnection-index-gxi-report/


See also