Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Dell'Oro:Surging 5G deployments in APAC

Healthy LTE growth and surging 5G investments in the Asia Pacific region added fuel to the Radio Access Networks (RAN) market upswing that began in the second half of 2018, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

“After several years of the Asia Pacific region being a drag on the worldwide RAN market, preliminary 2Q 2019 data points indicated positive trends extended into the second quarter, adding confidence that the tides are turning in the region,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President with the Dell’Oro Group. “In addition to healthy demand for low-band LTE solutions and easier year-over-year comparisons following the ZTE ban last year, surging 5G mid-band deployments in China and South Korea helped to drive the acceleration of the overall RAN market,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2019 Mobile RAN report:

  • The Asia Pacific region, including China, comprised more than 80 percent of worldwide RAN growth between 1H 2018 and 1H 2019.
  • 5G NR growth in the APAC region was 3x to 4x the size of the incremental LTE upside.
  • Samsung and ZTE recorded the largest overall RAN revenue share gains between 1H 2018 and 1H 2019 – with the two vendors collectively gaining five points of revenue share in the Asia Pacific region.


https://www.delloro.com/news/surging-5g-deployments-in-asia-pacific-fueled-the-worldwide-ran-market/

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Cignal AI: Optical hardware spending on the rise

Optical hardware spending grew in every region and for every business segment during 2Q19, according to the most recent Optical Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI. Huawei retained top market share worldwide and held steady despite a slowdown in China and increasing competitive and political pressures.

“Huawei managed to retain market share in what is typically its strongest quarter of the year,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst at Cignal AI. “Despite the export ban of many optical components and the reports of competitive wins against Huawei in EMEA and APAC, Huawei market share remained steady.”



Additional Key Findings in Cignal AI's 2Q19 Optical Hardware Report:

  • WDM Long Haul Spending Up – Long haul spending recovered in every region except Japan, as compact modular equipment and new high-speed coherent optics impact investments.
  • WDM Metro Declines in North America But Grows in All Other Regions – Factors contributing to the NA decline are the lower price per bit of new high-speed optics and competing priorities like the 5G rollout.
  • SONET/SDH Hangs On – Growth in APAC and EMEA offset SONET/SDH’s ongoing decline in NA. This growth comes from expansions and upgrades to existing networks; there are no new builds.
  • China’s Growth Slows — Growth in China appears dramatic due to the ZTE shutdown and the absence of revenue a year ago. Excluding ZTE’s results, growth slowed.
  • Coherent Optic Shipments Tracking to Reach Nearly 1 Million 100G Equivalent Ports in 2019 – This represents a 40% increase in bandwidth over 2018.
  • Regional trends - This quarter marked a turnaround for CALA, reversing multiple quarters of decline with a YoY surge of 30%. EMEA also grew with expansion across all product segments. Overall growth in North America was minor and would have been negative again if not for an enormous SLTE revenue increase this quarter. Finally, the rapid expansion in Japan for the past few quarters settled down to a more moderate pace with Ciena, NEC, and Huawei as the prime beneficiaries.

Cignal AI also offers an interactive Optical Hardware Market Share Tracker to clients of the Optical Hardware Report and provides quarterly up-to-date market data for real-time visibility on individual vendors’ results as they are released.

https://cignal.ai/2019/08/growth-returns-as-optical-hardware-spending-increases-in-every-region/

Friday, July 26, 2019

Cignal AI: Optical spending shifts from telcos to cloud operators

Cloud and colo spending increased over 50% in North America, offsetting declines in other regions, with Ciena continuing to lead all sales to cloud operators, according to the most recent Optical Customer Markets Report from research firm Cignal AI.

In EMEA, traditional telco (incumbent and wholesale network operators) optical spending recovered and will grow by double digits during 2019. Spending growth by these operators is slowing in APAC as total spending reaches record highs. Huawei continues to lead this market in APAC, EMEA, and CALA, while Ciena leads in North America.

“Optical spending in North America continues to shift from traditional telco providers to the cloud and colo operators,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware at Cignal AI. “Despite traditional telco operators accounting for most spending, the rapid growth in cloud spending combined with traditional operators now adopting cloud architectures has permanently changed supplier R&D priorities.”

Additional findings in the 1Q19 Optical Customer Markets Report include:

  • Ciena Waveserver Ai market share continues to increase as cloud & colo spending grows. New compact modular platforms targeted at this market are entering the market in 2Q19 with Cisco, Infinera, and Nokia among those expecting stronger sales in the next quarter.
  • North American cable/MSO spending declined in the first quarter. However, moderate growth is still expected in 2019.
  • Enterprise and Government spending shows pressure from consolidation and Cloud and Colo encroachment and isn’t expected to recover in the next two years.


https://cignal.ai/2019/07/cloud-and-colo-optical-hardware-spending-increases-by-50-in-north-america/


Thursday, July 25, 2019

Dell'Oro: Growth forecast for 10 Gbps EPON and XGS-PON

Global PON equipment market revenue is forecast to reach $7.3 B by 2023, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

The growth will be driven by spending on new 10 Gbps EPON and XGS-PON deployments, and on maximizing existing 2.5 Gbps GPON networks.

“Fiber deployments continue to expand around the world, thanks to increased competition and an improved funding environment for both public and private networks,” noted Jeff Heynen, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Today’s XGS-PON trials are quickly moving to production deployments, positioning operators to compete with cable DOCSIS 3.1 networks,” continued Heynen.

Additional highlights from the Broadband Access 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • Broadband Access market projected to increase at a 4 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the forecast period.
  • Spending on cable infrastructure will only reach $1.6 B by 2023, as cable operators slow their Converged Cable Access Platform (CCAP) purchases while focusing on their Distributed Access Architecture (DAA) deployments.
  • VDSL Profile 35b and Gfast will offset some, but not all of the revenue loss from declining ADSL and VDSL port shipments. Some major Gfast deployments are already seeing signs of shrinking, as operators increase their investments in fiber.

https://www.delloro.com/news/global-pon-equipment-market-revenue-forecast-to-reach-7-3-b-by-2023/

Wednesday, July 24, 2019

IDC: SD-WAN market to hit $5.25 billion by 2023

The SD-WAN infrastructure market will grow at a 30.8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2018 to 2023 to reach $5.25 billion, according to IDC's SD-WAN Infrastructure Forecast.

The SD-WAN infrastructure market to be highly competitive, according to IDC, with sales increasing by 64.9% in 2018 to $1.37 billion.

IDC finds that Cisco holds the largest share of the SD-WAN infrastructure market, fueled by its extensive routing portfolio that is used in SD-WAN deployments, as well as its Meraki portfolio and its SD-WAN management platform powered by technology it acquired from Viptela in August 2017. VMware, with its SD-WAN service powered by VeloCloud (which VMware acquired in December 2017), holds the second-largest market share in the SD-WAN infrastructure market, followed by Silver Peak, Nokia-Nuage, and Riverbed.

"SD-WAN continues to be one of the fastest-growing segments of the network infrastructure market, driven by a variety of factors. First, traditional enterprise WANs are increasingly not meeting the needs of today's modern digital businesses, especially as it relates to supporting SaaS apps and multi- and hybrid-cloud usage. Second, enterprises are interested in easier management of multiple connection types across their WAN to improve application performance and end-user experience," said Rohit Mehra, vice president, Network Infrastructure. "Combined with the rapid embrace of SD-WAN by leading communications service providers globally, these trends continue to drive deployments of SD-WAN, providing enterprises with dynamic management of hybrid WAN connections and the ability to guarantee high levels of quality of service on a per-application basis."

IDC's Market Share and Market Forecast reports focus specifically on the SD-WAN infrastructure market, which includes both hardware and software used in SD-WAN deployments. IDC defines SD-WAN as a dynamic, policy-enabled hybrid WAN that uses at least two or more connection methods (such as MPLS, broadband internet, 3G/4G, etc.) and includes a centralized application-based policy controller that provides intelligent path selection, along with an optional forwarder for routing capability. The SD-WAN infrastructure Market Share and Forecast reports do not include managed services related to SD-WAN, such as setup or operational support, nor do they include connectivity costs.

The IDC SD-WAN Infrastructure Forecast provides an outlook for this market across major regions for the period extending to 2023, including historical numbers through 2017 and forecast numbers from 2019 to 2023. It also provides regional geographic segmentation of the SD-WAN infrastructure market, including market sizes and CAGRs for each major region (North America, EMEA, APJ, Latin America).

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45380319

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Crehan: Top 3 clouds account for majority of whitebox Ethernet switch deployments

Three of the largest hyperscale cloud service providers account for most of the whitebox-class data center Ethernet switch shipments, according to recent reports from Crehan Research Inc.

Amazon, Google and Facebook combined to exceed two-thirds of total 2018 annual volumes.

Whitebox-class data center Ethernet switch shipments as a whole had a robust annual increase, to exceed 20% of the total annual volumes; but without Amazon, Google and Facebook, whitebox-class switching accounted for 7%.

“Although there seems to be a fair amount of tire-kicking, pilot projects and evaluations of whitebox-class data center switching, its overall adoption outside of three of the largest hyperscale cloud service providers has, so far, remained a relatively modest portion of overall data center switching,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Furthermore, the branded Ethernet switch vendors now offer customers what once was generally attainable only from whitebox switch deployments, including disaggregated open networking, programmability and significant price reductions.”

The boundary between branded and whitebox-class data center switching continues to blur, as evidenced by the following examples:

  • The hyperscale internet service provider Tencent is deploying Cisco’s merchant silicon-based Nexus 34180YC Ethernet switch with the SONiC operating system in its data centers.
  • Arista has jointly developed its most recent data center switch (the 7368X4) with Facebook which had historically worked with whitebox-class vendors such as Accton/Edgecore and Celestica, where the data center switch design was solely by Facebook.
  • Branded Ethernet switch vendors such as Dell EMC, Juniper and Mellanox offer disaggregated hardware/software solutions to deliver more flexibility and openness to data center networking customers.

Crehan’s reports further indicate that, while the overall market adoption of whitebox-class data center switching is in the twenty percent range it is higher than this for the newer and faster networking speeds. This is largely because Amazon, Google and Facebook tend to be earlier adopters of these newer and faster speeds. For example, almost all of the early volume in 400GbE data center switching is driven by whitebox-class switches, due to Google’s dominance of these early deployments. “We expect that, similar to other Ethernet speeds, the portion of whitebox-class data center switch volumes will decline as a broader customer base starts to deploy 400GbE switches,” Crehan said.

http://www.crehanresearch.com

Thursday, July 18, 2019

Top 5 Clouds account for 65% of optical transceivers for data centers

Alibaba, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Microsoft accounted for more than 65% of all Ethernet transceivers sold for applications in mega data centers in 2018, according to a new report from LightCounting.



This market segment grew by more than 50% in 2016 and more than 70% in 2017. However, the demand for optics from some of these key cloud customers started to slow down in the second half of 2018. The report cites several factors contributing to the slowing demand for optics from the cloud companies in 2019, including:

  • Excess inventory of 100GbE accumulated by the end of last year.
  • Transition to new switches based on Tomahawk 3 ASICs and some constraints in the supply chain related to it.
  • Uncertainty in continuing economic growth and escalating trade war between the US and China.
  • New regulations and penalties faced by the leading Cloud companies in the US and Europe related to data privacy and monopolistic practices of these very large vendors.

LightCounting says the first two issues in the list above are temporary and these may be resolved in the second half of 2019, but the third and especially the fourth one may limit growth of the largest cloud companies in the years to come.

Nevertheless, LightCounting expects that demand for optics from the cloud companies will return to growth in 2020-2024. Sales of new products including 100GbE DR1, 200GbE, 2x200GbE and 400GbE DR4 (including 4x100GbE) modules will lead this growth. Several new DWDM and AOC products will contribute to this trend.

https://www.lightcounting.com/News_071819.cfm


Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Cignal AI: Compact modular optical sales exceed $275M

Compact modular optical hardware is being used in more network applications than ever before, according to the latest Optical Applications Report from market research firm Cignal AI. The report finds that almost 30% of North American optical hardware shipments are mow in compact modular format, which was first used by cloud operators for data center interconnect applications but now includes many other operators and applications.

Market share leaders include the Ciena Waveserver, Infinera CX and Groove, and Cisco 1000 series.

“Network applications for the compact modular form factor have expanded well beyond the original data center interconnect deployments,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware at Cignal AI. “Applications now include traditional telco networks, metro and long haul deployments, and even some early trials for subsea deployment. We expect this spending trend to increase in 2019 as new compact modular products come to market from a variety of vendors.”



Some highlights from Cignal AI:

  • Compact modular hardware sales exceeded $275 million in Q1 and are tracking to exceed $1 billion in revenue this year. 
  • Growth was most pronounced in North America this quarter, where it accounted for almost 30% of the entire optical market and is expected to continue advancing through 2023.
  • Ciena expanded its dominance in compact modular with over 50% market share in Q1. The combined Infinera/Coriant held on to second place despite declining sales.
  • Acacia AC1200-based platforms are expected to have an impact starting next quarter. Cisco compact modular sales paused in Q1 in anticipation of the NCS1004 platform.
  • Almost 500k physical coherent ports have shipped in the last 12 months. Currently, over 70% of coherent ports are shipped by the top five vendors in the market.
  • After a 2018 recovery year, long haul port shipments are starting to pick up. Metro growth is advancing at a similar pace, as next-generation coherent enables an upgrade from 100Gbps.
  • Packet OTN growth is slowing. New deployments are limited to China and parts of APAC as networks in other regions evolve away from the packet OTN architecture.

https://cignal.ai/2019/07/compact-modular-sales-expand-reaching-over-275m/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PR

Sunday, July 7, 2019

IDC: Worldwide public cloud spending to double by 2023

IDC is predicting that worldwide spending on public cloud services and infrastructure will more than double over the 2019-2023 period.

The latest update to IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Public Cloud Services Spending Guide forecasts a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.3%, public cloud spending, taking the market from $229 billion in 2019 to nearly $500 billion in 2023.

"Adoption of public (shared) cloud services continues to grow rapidly as enterprises, especially in professional services, telecommunications, and retail, continue to shift from traditional application software to software as a service (SaaS) and from traditional infrastructure to infrastructure as a service (IaaS) to empower customer experience and operational-led digital transformation (DX) initiatives," said Eileen Smith, program director, Customer Insights and Analysis.



Some highlights from IDC:

  • Software as a Service (SaaS) will be the largest category of cloud computing, capturing more than half of all public cloud spending in throughout the forecast. SaaS spending, which is comprised of applications and system infrastructure software (SIS), will be dominated by applications purchases. The leading SaaS applications will be customer relationship management (CRM) and enterprise resource management (ERM). SIS spending will be led by purchases of security software and system and service management software.
  • Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) will be the second largest category of public cloud spending throughout the forecast, followed by Platform as a Service (PaaS). IaaS spending, comprised of servers and storage devices, will also be the fastest growing category of cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 32.0%. PaaS spending will grow nearly as fast (29.9% CAGR) led by purchases of data management software, application platforms, and integration and orchestration middleware.
  • Three industries – professional services, discrete manufacturing, and banking – will account for more than one third of all public cloud services spending throughout the forecast. While SaaS will be the leading category of investment for all industries, IaaS will see its share of spending increase significantly for industries that are building data and compute intensive services. For example, IaaS spending will represent more than 40% of public cloud services spending by the professional services industry in 2023 compared to less than 30% for most other industries. Professional services will also see the fastest growth in public cloud spending with a five-year CAGR of 25.6%.
  • On a geographic basis, the United States will be the largest public cloud services market, accounting for more than half the worldwide total through 2023. Western Europe will be the second largest market with nearly 20% of the worldwide total. China will experience the fastest growth in public cloud services spending over the five-year forecast period with a 49.1% CAGR. Latin America will also deliver strong public cloud spending growth with a 38.3% CAGR.
  • Very large businesses (more than 1000 employees) will account for more than half of all public cloud spending throughout the forecast, while medium-size businesses (100-499 employees) will deliver around 16% of the worldwide total. Small businesses (10-99 employees) will trail large businesses (500-999 employees) by a few percentage points while the spending share from small offices (1-9 employees) will be in the low single digits. All the company size categories except for very large businesses will experience spending growth greater than the overall market.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45340719

Tuesday, June 25, 2019

5G Americas: Deployment Trends

There are currently 15 commercial mobile network operators worldwide, according to 5G Americas and TeleGeography (GlobalComms Database), and an additional 47 launches are expected before the end of 2019 for a total of more than 62 live 5G networks.

Live 5G networks include: AT&T, Sprint, Verizon, Telstra, KT, LG Plus, SK Telecom, Antel (Uruguay), Batelco, du, Etisalat, Vodafone Italy, Sunrise, Swisscom, BT (including EE).

Some additional stats:

  • 5 5G networks are set to launch by end of 2Q (June) 2019
  • 11 5G networks are expected to launch by end of 3Q 2019
  • 13 5G networks are expected to launch by end of 2019
  • An additional 17 operators have announced plans for the deployment of 5G in 2019
  • More than 100 operators have announced their 5G deployment plans in 2020 and beyond and are testing, trialing and building their networks in stages of planned deployments
  • More than half of all the mobile wireless technology connections worldwide are LTE technology, with a reported 51 percent market share at the first quarter of 2019/
  • LTE is currently deployed on 646 networks worldwide 
  • There were 299 LTE-Advanced networks worldwide at 1Q 2019, including 60 that may be considered LTE-Advanced Pro; 58 of which have deployed Narrowband Internet of Things (NB-IoT) and/or LTE for Machine-Type Communications (LTE-M) 3GPP Release 13 technology features for the Internet of Things.
  • Comparatively, North America’s market share for LTE at 87 percent far exceeds all other world regions; the next highest world regions are the Oceania, Eastern and South Eastern Asia region with LTE share of 70 percent followed by Western Europe at 54 percent (data by Ovum).
  • LTE is forecast to reach 473 million connections at the end of 2020 (including M2M)
  • 5G connections are forecast to reach 4 million by the end of 2020 and increase to 186 million by the end of 2023

“LTE continues its momentum worldwide, at the same time that 5G becomes a commercial reality in many parts of the world,” said Chris Pearson, President, 5G Americas. “The mobile wireless industry has worked hard to provide technical innovation for both LTE and 5G for the benefit of customers globally.”

http://www.5gamericas.org/en/newsroom/press-releases/5g-live-15-commercial-standardized-5g-networks-worldwide/


Thursday, June 20, 2019

IDC: Cloud infrastructure spending to cool down

Vendor revenue from the sales of IT infrastructure products (server, enterprise storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud environments, including public and private cloud, grew 11.4% year over year in the first quarter of 2019 (1Q19), reaching $14.5 billion, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker.

IDC lowered its forecast for total spending on cloud IT infrastructure in 2019 to $66.9 billion – down 4.5% from last quarter's forecast – with slower year-over-year growth of 1.6%.

"As the overall IT infrastructure goes through a period of slowdown after an outstanding 2018, the important trends might look somewhat distorted in the short term," said Natalya Yezhkova, research vice president, Infrastructure Systems, Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "IDC's long-term expectations strongly back continuous growth of cloud IT infrastructure environments. With vendors and service providers finding new ways of delivering cloud services, including from IT infrastructure deployed at customer premises, end users have fewer obstacles and pain points in adopting cloud/services-based IT."

Some highlights from IDC:


  • Vendor revenue from hardware infrastructure sales to public cloud environments in 1Q19 was down 13.4% compared to the previous quarter (4Q18) but increased 8.9% year over year to $9.8 billion. This segment of the market continues to be highly impacted by demand from a handful of hyperscale service providers, whose spending on IT infrastructure tends to have visible up and down swings. 
  • After a strong performance in 2018, IDC expects the public cloud IT infrastructure segment to cool down in 2019 with vendor revenue dropping to $44.5 billion, a 2.2% decrease from 2018. Although it will continue to account for the majority of spending on cloud IT environments, its share will decrease from 69.1% in 2018 to 66.5% in 2019. In contrast, spending on private cloud IT infrastructure has showed more stable growth since IDC started tracking sales of IT infrastructure products in various deployment environments. In the first quarter of 2019, vendor revenues from private cloud environments increased 16.9% year over year reaching $4.7 billion. IDC expects spending in this segment to grow 10.1% year over year in 2019.
  • Overall, the IT infrastructure industry is at a crossroads in terms of product sales to cloud vs. traditional IT environments. In 3Q18, vendor revenues from cloud IT environments climbed over the 50% mark for the first time but has since fallen below this important threshold. In 1Q19, cloud IT environments accounted for 48.8% of vendor revenues. 
  • For the full year 2019, spending on cloud IT infrastructure will remain just below the 50% mark at 49.4%. Over the long-term, however, IDC expects that spending on cloud IT infrastructure will grow steadily and will sustainably exceed the level of spending on traditional IT infrastructure in 2020 and beyond.
  • Spending on the three technology segments in cloud IT environments is forecast to deliver growth for Ethernet switches and storage platforms while compute platforms are expected to decline in 2019. Ethernet switches will be the fastest growing at 20.9%, while spending on storage platforms will grow slightly at 1.9%. Meanwhile, compute platforms will decline by 2.8% in 2019 but will remain the largest category of spending on cloud IT infrastructure at $34.2 billion.
  • Sales of IT infrastructure products into traditional (non-cloud) IT environments remained flat compared to 1Q18. For the full year 2019, worldwide spending on traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure is expected to decline by 3.5%, as the technology refresh cycle that drove market growth in 2018 is winding down. By 2023, IDC expects that traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure will only represent 42.4% of total worldwide IT infrastructure spending (down from 51.9% in 2018). This share loss and the growing share of cloud environments in overall spending on IT infrastructure is common across all regions.
  • Most regions grew their cloud IT Infrastructure revenues in 1Q19. Middle East & Africa was fastest growing at 35.3% year over year, followed by Western Europe at 25.4% year-over-year growth. Other growing regions 1Q19 included Central & Eastern Europe (18.3%), Canada and Japan (both at 14.6%), the United States (10.7%), and China (5.4%). Cloud IT Infrastructure revenues were down slightly year over year in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) by 1.2% and in Latin America by 0.2%.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

IDC: IoT is expected to generate 79.4ZB of data in 2025

A new forecast from International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates that there will be 41.6 billion connected IoT devices, or "things," generating 79.4 zettabytes (ZB) of data in 2025.

IDC projects that the amount of data created by these connected IoT devices will see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.7% over the 2018-2025 forecast period.

Some highlights of the recently published Worldwide Global DataSphere IoT Device and Data Forecast 2019-2023 report:

  • Most of the data is being generated by video surveillance applications, but other categories such as industrial and medical will increasingly generate more data over time.
  • The industrial and automotive category will see the fastest data growth rates over the forecast period with a CAGR of 60%. 
  • Drones, while still early in adoption today, show great potential to access remote or hard to reach locations and will also be a big driver of data creation using cameras.

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Ericsson predicts 1.9 billion 5G subscriptions in 2024

5G subscriptions are now expected to reach 1.9 billion in 2024, as operators ramp up deployments and users switch to 5G devices, according to the June 2019 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report. This is up from 1.5 billion forecasted in the November 2018 edition – an increase of almost 27 percent.

Ericsson cited rapid early momentum for 5G as the reason it has accelerated its forecast.

Additional highlights:
  • 5G coverage is forecast to reach 45 percent of the world’s population by end of 2024
  • In 2024, 5G networks are projected to carry 35 percent of the global mobile traffic
  • As 5G devices increasingly become available and more 5G networks go live, more than 10 million 5G subscriptions are projected worldwide by the end of 2019.
  • The uptake of 5G subscriptions is expected to be fastest in North America, with 63 percent of anticipated mobile subscriptions in the region being for 5G in 2024. 
  • North East Asia follows in second place (47 percent), and Europe in third (40 percent).
  • Total mobile data traffic continued to soar globally in Q1 2019, up 82 percent year-on-year. It is predicted to reach 131 exabytes (EB) per month by the end of 2024, at which time 35 percent is projected to be over 5G networks. 
  • There are 1 billion cellular IoT connections globally, a figure that is expected to rise to 4.1 billion by the end of 2024, of which 45 percent are represented by Massive IoT. Industries using Massive IoT include utilities with smart metering, healthcare in the form of medical wearables, and transport with tracking sensors.
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson, says: “5G is definitely taking off and at a rapid pace. This reflects the service providers’ and consumers’ enthusiasm for the technology. 5G will have positive impact on people’s lives and businesses, realizing gains beyond the IoT and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. However, the full benefits of 5G can only be reaped with the establishment of a solid ecosystem in which technology, regulatory, security, and industry partners all have a part to play.”

The 34-page report is here:
https://www.ericsson.com/assets/local/mobility-report/documents/2019/ericsson-mobility-report-june-2019.pdf

Monday, June 10, 2019

Dell'Oro: Broadband access equipment revenue dipped to $2.9 B in 1Q19

Global revenue for broadband access equipment declined 2 percent Y/Y in 1Q 2019, reaching $2.9 billion, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. Increased shipments of XG-PON1, XGS-PON, NG-PON2 OLT ports, and DOCSIS 3.1, CPE offset CCAP spending declined for the second straight quarter.

Additional highlights from the 1Q 2019 Broadband Access Quarterly Report:

  • Total cable access concentrator revenue decreased 38 percent Y/Y to $275 M, driven by a strong slowdown in CCAP channel purchases in North America and EMEA.
  • Total DSL port shipments decreased 21 percent Y/Y, with ADSL ports down 71 percent and VDSL ports down 20 percent.
  • Total PON OLT port shipments increased 7 percent Y/Y, with XGS-PON ports up 337 percent.
  • Total SOHO WLAN units increased 13 percent Y/Y, driven by the driven by 19% Y/Y growth in broadband CPE with WLAN and 125% Y/Y growth in mesh router units.

“The 10 Gbps FTTH deployments continue to build momentum,” said Jeff Heynen, Research Director, Broadband Access and Home Networking. “The next-gen fiber increases nearly offset the weakness in cable CCAP spending, as cable operators push off new capacity purchases while they determine how to move forward with distributed access architectures,” explained Heynen.

Sunday, June 9, 2019

Dell'Oro: SP core router market fueled by 100GE adoption

The worldwide Service Provider Core Router market grew 7 percent year-over-year in 1Q 2019, according to a recently published report by Dell’Oro Group, driven by telecommunications and cloud operators upgrading networks with 100 Gigabit Ethernet technologies.

According to the report, 100 GE router port shipments hit a record level in 1Q 2019.

“Network operators are benefitting from lower prices of 100 GE products to add capacity to their backbone and metro networks—the volume of 100 GE port shipments almost doubled year-over-year,” said Shin Umeda, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Demand for core routers was strong in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe, more than offsetting lower sales in North America,” added Umeda.

Additional highlights from the 1Q 2019 Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch Quarterly Report:

  • Cisco was the top-ranked Service Provider Core Router vendor, followed by Huawei, and Juniper.
  • The Service Provider Edge Router market increased 2 percent year-over-year, showing some early, yet modest effects 5G backhaul upgrade projects.

http://www.delloro.com/news/service-provider-core-router-market-fueled-100-gigabit-ethernet-adoption

Dell’Oro: Slowdown in cloud CapEx growth

A slowdown in cloud CapEx growth rate weighed on the Data Center Switch market growth in 1Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.  The year-over-year growth of Data Center Switching revenue fell below 5 percent for the first time in almost five years.

Some highlights from Dell'Oro's 1Q 2019 Ethernet Switch – Data Center Quarterly Report:

  • 25 GE and 100 GE composed about half of the market revenue and two-thirds of shipments.
  • 400 GE shipments continued to ramp for the second consecutive quarter, albeit driven mostly by Google.
  • 100 GE ports are expected to nearly double in 2019, while the 400 GE refresh cycle is not expected to have a material effect until 400 GE optics become available in 2020.

“The deceleration of Cloud capex spending started in 2H 2018 but appeared more severe at certain Cloud Service Providers (SPs) this quarter. However, our analysis of Cloud capex indicates that the second half of this year will grow at a higher rate,” said Sameh Boujelbene, Senior Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Despite this deceleration, Arista, one of the vendors with high exposure to Cloud SPs, managed to gain share to capture 20 percent of the North American market, while Cisco was the top-ranked vendor with more than 40 percent share,” added Boujelbene.

IDC: Server market revenue up 4% in 1Q19

The worldwide server market increased 4.4% year over year to $19.8 billion during 1Q19, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker.

Worldwide server shipments declined 5.1% year over year to just under 2.6 million units in 1Q19.

Some highlights from IDC:

  • The overall server market slowed in 1Q19 after experiencing six consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth although pockets of robust growth remain. 
  • Volume server revenue increased by 4.2% to $16.7 billion, while midrange server revenue grew 30.2% to $2.1 billion. 
  • High-end systems contracted steeply for a second consecutive quarter, declining 24.7% year over year to $976 million.

"Demand from both enterprise buyers and hyperscale companies purchasing through ODMs was less voracious than in previous quarters; coupled with a difficult compare period from a year ago, this impacted the pace of market growth during the first quarter," said Sebastian Lagana, research manager, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "This was most evident in declining unit shipments during the quarter, although year-to-year average selling price (ASP) increases supported revenue growth for many vendors. As long as demand for richly configured servers supports further ASP growth, the market will offset slight declines in unit volume."

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45151319

IDC: Enterprise storage capacity shipments grow 14% in Q1, sales dip

Vendor revenue in the worldwide enterprise storage systems market decreased 0.6% year over year to $13.4 billion during the first quarter of 2019 (1Q19), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Enterprise Storage Systems Tracker.

Total capacity shipments were up 14.1% year over year to 114.2 exabytes during the quarter.

Some highlights from IDC:
  •  datacenters declined 5.3% year over year in 1Q19 to $2.95 billion. This represents 22.1% of total enterprise storage investments during the quarter. 
  • Sales of server-based storage decreased 6.6% year over year to just over $3.6 billion in revenue. This represents 26.6% of total enterprise storage investments. 
  • The external storage systems market revenue totaled nearly $6.9 billion during the quarter, up 5.0% from 1Q18.

"First quarter 2019 results are an acceleration of the slowdown we noted last quarter, with declining ODM and internal (server-based) storage the primary drivers of market contraction." said Sebastian Lagana, research manager, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies. "OEM vendors selling dedicated storage arrays still generated growth during the quarter, although slowing flash-centric array growth indicates that the opportunity for existing install-base upgrades is beginning to wane."



https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45155319

Sunday, June 2, 2019

IDC: Switching market grows 7.8%, routing up 8.2%

According to IDC, the Worldwide Ethernet switch (Layer 2/3) market grew revenues 7.8% in Q1 2019 to $6.8 billion, while the worldwide enterprise and service provider (SP) router market saw revenues increase 8.2% year over year to $3.6 billion.

"Organizations across the globe are looking to digitally transform themselves in an effort to meet market and competitive needs and improve user experiences. As they do so, enterprises are realizing the critical role the network plays in their broader IT transformation initiatives," said Rohit Mehra, vice president, Network Infrastructure, at IDC. "This has led to continued, and growing, investment in Ethernet switching, routing, software-defined networks (SDN), and SD-WAN platforms and architectures that support the increasing demands of an always-connected world."



Some highlights of the newly updated IDC Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and IDC Quarterly Router Tracker:


  • From a geographic perspective, the 1Q19 Ethernet switch market had a strong quarter across the globe. The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) region grew 8.6% year over year. Notable gains in the region included China, which grew 11.7% year over year, and Taiwan, which increased 15.3%. Meanwhile, Japan's Ethernet switch market rose 1.3%.
  • The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region saw growth of 9.5% year over year, led by Egypt, which rose 17.3%. Europe saw more modest growth with Western Europe growing 3.5% and Central and Eastern Europe remaining stagnant with 0.3% year-over-year growth. Notable markets in Western Europe included the United Kingdom, which was down 1.2% from a year earlier, while Germany was up 2.3% and Italy grew 15.5% year over year. In Central and Eastern Europe, Russia declined 13.4% year over year. In the Americas, the United States grew 11.9% while Canada increased 2.6% year over year. Latin America was down 4.5% overall with Brazil's 8.5% year-over-year decline offset by 11.0% growth in Mexico.
  • Port shipments for 100Gb switches rose 85.3% year over year to 3.6 million. 100Gb revenues grew 59.0% year over year in 1Q19 to $1.2 billion, making up 17.3% of the market's revenue. 
  • 25Gb ports also saw impressive growth, increasing 133.3% to $304.0 million, with port shipments growing 104.8% year over year. 
  • 40Gb switches continue to be falling out of favor with revenues declining 21.3% year over year. 
  • Lower-speed campus switches, a more mature part of the market, showed moderate growth. 10Gb port shipments rose 8.6% year over year to make up 28.7% of the market's revenue. 
  • The worldwide enterprise and service provider router market grew 8.2% on a year-over-year basis in 1Q19 with the major service provider segment, which accounts for 75.3% of revenues, increasing 7.1% and the enterprise segment of the market growing 11.9%. 
  • From a regional perspective, the combined service provider and enterprise router market increased 12.0% in APeJ with the enterprise segment up 17.7%. Japan's total market grew 27.1% year over year. Central and Eastern Europe regional revenues rose 19.7% year over year, while the Western Europe combined enterprise and service provider market grew 3.7% year over year. The Middle East & Africa region was up 12.6% fueled by a 15.7% increase in service provider revenues. In the U.S., the enterprise segment was up 15.7% but the service provider revenues fell 5.8%, causing the total market to decline 0.5% year over year. Canada's market rose 28.5% year over year and the Latin American market grew 9.0%.
  • Cisco finished 1Q19 with an 8.3% year-over-year increase in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 53.7%. In the hotly contested 25Gb/100Gb segment, Cisco is the market leader with 39.4% of the market's revenue. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue rose 15.3% year over year, with enterprise router revenue increasing 16.1% and service provider revenues growing 14.8%. Cisco's combined SP and enterprise router market share increased to 42.4%, up from 37.4% in 4Q18.
  • Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue rose 18.9% on an annualized basis, giving the company market share of 8.9%, up from 8.1% a year earlier. The company's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue rose 5.7% year over year with a market share of 24.5%.
  • Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues increase 24.0% in 1Q19, bringing its share to 7.5% of the total market, up from 6.5% a year earlier. The company continues to cater to the higher end of Ethernet switch speeds, with 100Gb revenues accounting for 67.6% of the company's total revenue, indicating the company's focus on hyperscale and cloud providers.
  • HPE's Ethernet switch revenue declined 5.6% year over year, giving the company a market share of 5.3%.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue declined 23.4% in 1Q19, bringing its market share to 2.6%. Juniper saw an 8.2% decline in combined enterprise and service provider router sales, bringing its market share in the router market to 10.4%.

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45119319

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Vertical Systems Group: 2018 U.S. Carrier Managed SD-WAN LEADERBOARD

Vertical Systems Group announces that eight companies achieved a position on
AT&T achieved the top position on Vertical Systems Group's 2018 U.S. Carrier Managed SD-WAN Services LEADERBOARD.

The top eight companies (in rank order): AT&T, Hughes, Verizon, Windstream, CenturyLink, Aryaka, Fusion and Comcast. These companies had the highest market shares of installed Carrier Managed SD-WAN customer sites in the U.S. as of year-end 2018.

"Providers in the Carrier Managed segment of the SD-WAN market have emerged as the best choice for delivering large scale, complex and resilient SD-WAN services end-to-end," said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. "We believe that network operators with deep experience in MPLS, Ethernet and IP are most favorably positioned to support enterprise customers as they transition their networks to SDN."

Companies with the next largest market shares in this segment are cited in the Challenge Tier. The following six companies attained a Challenge Tier citation for 2018 (in alphabetical order): Bigleaf, GTT, Masergy, Meriplex, Sprint, and TPx.

Research Highlights

  • SD-WAN is one of the three Managed VPN segments that Vertical tracks, along with MPLS and Site-to-Site VPNs. Service migration analysis shows that the majority of Carrier Managed SD-WAN service installations to date are hybrid configurations that include partial conversions of existing Site-to-Site and MPLS networks.
  • The top five Carrier Managed SD-WAN companies are also the leading providers of Dedicated IP VPN services, including landline and satellite connectivity.
  • A number of SDN-based technologies are utilized to deliver Carrier Managed SD-WAN services. The fourteen LEADERBOARD and Challenge Tier providers use products from the following companies (in alphabetical order): Cisco/Viptela, Silver Peak, Versa, and VMware/VeloCloud, or employ their own internally developed technologies. Several SD-WAN service providers offer multiple solutions.
  • Vertical Systems Group defines a Carrier Managed SD-WAN Service as a carrier-grade offering for business customers that is managed by a network operator, utilizes an SDN architecture, enables dynamic customer edge site connectivity, and provides centralized network control and visibility end-to-end. This definition aligns with MEF terminology for an SD-WAN service.

https://www.verticalsystems.com/2019/05/21/2018-sd-wan-us-leaderboard/

See also