Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 8, 2020

IDC: Worldwide server market grew 19.8% YOY in Q2

Vendor revenue in the worldwide server market grew 19.8% year over year to $24.0 billion during the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20) while worldwide server shipments grew 18.4% year over year to nearly 3.2 million units in 2Q20, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker.

"Global demand for enterprise servers was strong during the second quarter of 2020," said Paul Maguranis, senior research analyst, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "We certainly see areas of reduced spending, but this was offset by investments made by large cloud builders and enterprises targeting solutions that support shifting infrastructure needs caused by the global pandemic. Investments in Asia/Pacific were also particularly strong, growing 31% year over year."

Some highlights from IDC:


  • In terms of server class, volume server revenue was up 22.1% to $18.7 billion, while midrange server revenue declined 0.4% to about $3.3 billion and high-end systems grew by 44.1% to $1.9 billion.
  • The worldwide server market ended 2Q20 with a statistical tie* between, and Dell Technologies for the number 1 position. HPE/New H3C Group finished the quarter with market share of 14.9% while Dell Technologies captured a 13.9% share of worldwide revenues. Inspur/Inspur Power Systems took third place with 10.5% share and impressive 77% year-over-year growth. Lenovo and IBM tied* for fourth with 6.1% and 6.0% share, respectively.
  • On a geographic basis, the Asia/Pacific region performed very well this quarter growing at a combined 31.%. China outperformed the competitive set, growing 39.8% year over year, followed by Japan at 24.9%, and the rest of the region (Asia/Pacific excluding Japan and China) at 13.4%. The United States also grew 25.0% year over year while Canada declined 11.2%. Latin America was able to grow 15.6% while Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) declined 5.8% year over year.
  • Revenue generated from x86 servers decreased 17.4% in 2Q20 to $21.6 billion. Non-x86 servers grew revenues 47.4% year over year to around $2.4 billion.



https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS46838120

Thursday, September 3, 2020

Dell’Oro: Open RAN market to eclipse $5 billion

The worldwide sales of Virtualized Open RAN technologies are forecasted to grow at double-digit rates over the next five years with cumulative Open RAN investments – including hardware, software, and firmware excluding services – projected to surpass $5 B over the forecast period, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

“At a first glance it might appear overly optimistic with a baseline scenario suggesting a new technology, which remains relatively untested and some officials believe would need a decade to get off the ground, would be able to become a billion-dollar market comprising a sizable portion of the overall RAN segment in just half a decade,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and analyst with the Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, the momentum is improving, and we have adjusted the outlook upward to reflect a confluence of factors including promising results from initial commercial deployments, growing support from the incumbent RAN suppliers, and increased geopolitical uncertainty acting as a catalyst for operators to rethink their supplier strategies,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights:

  • Cumulative Virtualized RAN revenues—here defined as the proportion of RAN baseband/compute capex that will utilize general-purpose processors for CU and/or DU—are projected to approach $3 B to 5 B over the next five years.
  • Cumulative Open RAN radio shipments – including macro and small cells – are projected to surpass 1 M over the forecast period.

https://www.delloro.com/news/open-ran-market-expected-to-eclipse-5b/

IDC: Ethernet switch market drops 6.3% in Q2

The worldwide Ethernet switch market recorded $6.6 billion in revenue in the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20), a decrease of 6.3% year over year, according to IDC's Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and IDC Quarterly Router Tracker, while worldwide total enterprise and service provider (SP) router market revenues recorded a slight year-over-year gain, with a 0.1% increase in 2Q20 to nearly $4.0 billion.

"In addition to there being varying trends across the enterprise, hyperscale, and service provider segments of both the Ethernet switch and router markers, there is also significant variation in second quarter results based on geography," noted Petr Jirovsky, research director, IDC Networking Trackers. "Regions of the world where the COVID-19 pandemic subsided in the second quarter saw increases in their markets, while the response to the virus was ramping up during this period in parts of Europe and the Americas, representing a headwind."

"Softness in the Ethernet switch market in the first quarter of 2020 continued into the second quarter, driven primarily by the continued impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to the lockdown of most economies worldwide," says Brad Casemore, research vice president, Datacenter and Multicloud Networks at IDC. "Despite the headwinds of COVID-19, the Ethernet switch market stayed relatively healthy, most notably because of steady demand from hyperscalers and other cloud providers, which continue to invest in greater datacenter scale and higher bandwidths."

Some Ethernet switch highlights from IDC:


  • From a geographic perspective, the Ethernet switch market saw year-over-year reductions in most global regions. A bright spot was China, which recorded a 25.4% year-over-year increase in 2Q20. The broader Asia/Pacific region (excluding Japan and China) fell by 6.7% year over year with Hong Kong's Ethernet switch market dropping 35.8%. Japan's market was off 3.0% from a year earlier. There was also weakness across Europe and the Americas. Western Europe's Ethernet switch market fell 13.1%, with the United Kingdom off 23.4% from a year earlier and France losing 20.5%. Central and Eastern Europe was down 7.6% with Hungary losing 20.1% year over year while the Czech Republic grew 17.6%. The Middle East and Africa region fell 7.5% with Qatar declining 17.1% but Israel gaining 7.6%. In the Americas, the United States was down 12.5% while Canada lost 16.5%. The Latin America region fell 22.1% with Mexico losing 21.6% compared to a year earlier.
  • Port shipments for 100Gb switches rose 51.2% year over year to 6.7 million units. 
  • 100Gb revenues grew 16.3% year over year in 2Q20 to nearly $1.5 billion, making up 22.4% of the market's overall revenue. 
  • 25Gb switches also saw impressive growth with revenues increasing 39.0% to $505.9 million and port shipments growing 62.2%. 
  • Lower-speed campus switches, a more mature part of the market, saw mixed results in port shipments and revenue as average selling prices (ASPs) in this segment continue to decline. 
  • 10Gb port shipments rose 23.1% year over year, but revenue declined 6.1%. 10Gb switches make up 28.0% of the market's total revenue. 1Gb switches declined 10.1% year over year in port shipments and fell 17.9% in revenue. 1Gb now accounts for 35.0% of the total Ethernet switch market's revenue.


Some router market highlights from IDC:

  • The worldwide enterprise and service provider router market increased 0.1% on a year-over-year basis in 2Q20, with the major service provider segment, which accounts for 76.9% of revenues, growing 1.5% and the enterprise segment of the market declining 4.2%. 
  • From a regional perspective, the combined service provider and enterprise router market grew 18.1% year over year in China and was up 20.2% in Japan. The broader Asia/Pacific region (excluding Japan and China) fell 5.6% year over year. Revenues in Western Europe were off 10.4%, while the Central and Eastern Europe combined enterprise and service provider market declined 8.7%. The Middle East & Africa region was down 5.7% year over year. In the United States, the enterprise segment was down 12.0%, while service provider revenues fell 5.9%, giving the combined markets a 7.5% year over year drop. The Latin American market declined 2.6% on an annualized basis.
  • Cisco finished 2Q20 with a 13.4% year-over-year decline in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 47.2%. In the hotly contested 25Gb/100Gb segment, Cisco is the market leader with 35.7% of the market's revenue. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue was down 9.6%, with enterprise router revenue decreasing 11.8% and SP revenues down 8.1% year over year. Cisco's combined SP and enterprise router market share stands at 33.2%.
  • Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue rose 15.7% on an annualized basis, giving the company market share of 12.0%. The company's combined SP and enterprise router revenue increased 16.7% year over year, giving the company a market share of 36.3%.
  • Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues decline 17.9% in 2Q20, bringing its share to 6.4% of the total market. 100Gb revenues account for 72.4% of the company's total revenue, reflecting the company's longstanding presence at cloud providers and large enterprises.
  • HPE's Ethernet switch revenue declined 17.3% year over year, giving the company a market share of 5.1%.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue fell 8.2% in 2Q20, bringing its market share to 2.8%. Juniper saw a 3.3% decline in combined enterprise and SP router sales, bringing its market share in the router market to 10.2%.

Wednesday, September 2, 2020

IDC: Worldwide Enterprise WLAN market dips

The combined consumer and enterprise worldwide wireless local area network (WLAN) market segments rose 7.1% year over year in 2Q20, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Wireless LAN Tracker, although the enterprise segment declined 9.5% year over year in 2Q20 with $1.4 billion in revenue. IDC attributes the decline to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the enterprise WLAN market.

Some highlights from IDC:

  • Revenues for the enterprise class of WLAN infrastructure have now declined 6.1% in the first half of 2020 compared to the same period a year earlier.
  • Wi-Fi 6-enabled dependent access points (APs) made up 28.9% of revenues, up from 21.8% in the first quarter of 2020 and indicating significant adoption of the newest WLAN standard in the enterprise market. 
  • Wi-Fi 6 units accounted for 16.8% of shipments, up from 11.8% in the previous quarter. The Wi-Fi 5 standard (802.11ac) still makes up the majority of dependent AP shipments (75.6%) and revenues (69.4%). Overall unit shipments in the enterprise WLAN market fell 6.4% compared to 2Q19.
  • The consumer WLAN market grew 20.3% year over year in 2Q20. W
  • ithin the consumer market, 60.2% of shipments and 73.7% of revenues were for 802.11ac products. 
  • 802.11ax units made up 3.6% of shipments and 9.5% of revenues, showing the slow adoption of Wi-Fi 6 in the consumer market. 
  • APs supporting the older 802.11n standard still made up 36.2% of unit shipments and 16.8% of revenues.
  • Cisco's enterprise WLAN revenues decreased 10.9% year over year in 2Q20 to $626 million. In the first half of 2020, Cisco's revenues are down 8.9% compared to the first half of 2019. Cisco remains the market share leader, finishing the quarter with 44.3% share, down from 45.7% in 1Q20.
  • HPE-Aruba revenues fell 17.1% year over year in 2Q20 and the company's market share stood at 12.8%.
  • Ubiquiti enterprise WLAN revenues fell 5.0% year over year. The company's market share was 7.1%, down from 9.5% in the previous quarter.
  • CommScope (formerly ARRIS/Ruckus) revenues declined 22.8% year over year in 2Q20. The company held 4.9% market share in the quarter.
  • Huawei's revenues rose 2.5% year over year in 2Q20 and its market share rose to 6.1% from 3.8% in the previous quarter (1Q20).

"Organizations around the globe were forced to rapidly adjust their operations in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, leading some organizations to pause investments in WLAN equipment," says Brandon Butler, senior research analyst, Network Infrastructure. "Wireless connectivity can play an important role in the new normal operations of enterprises though. From providing connectivity for cloud-based and communication applications, to enabling the ability to alert and enforce social distancing rules, IDC believes wireless networking will remain an important part of enterprise IT buying plans in the coming years."

Sunday, August 30, 2020

Crehan: Data center Ethernet switch shipments up 12% in 1H2020

Despite COVID-related supply and demand disruptions, customers deployed more data center Ethernet switches in the first half of 2020 than they did in the same year-ago period, according to a recent report from Crehan Research Inc. Port shipments increased by 12% year-over-year, resulting in a new record high.

Hyperscale cloud service providers and China were significant contributors to the market’s growth, according to the report. The hyperscale cloud service provider’s contribution was reflected in the especially strong growth of 100 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) and 25GbE – a preferred data center networking architecture within this customer segment. In fact, 100GbE and 25GbE combined had a 40% year-over-year increase, comprising a majority of total data center switch port shipments.

“This robust shipment growth, even in the face of COVID disruptions, is a reflection of the critical nature of data center networks in delivering needed services to businesses, homes
and governments,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.

Other noteworthy results from Crehan’s data center switch report:

  • Cisco accounted for the majority of data center switch shipments and saw stable year-over-year market share.
  • As a result of its strong presence in the hyperscale cloud service provider segment, Arista was a key driver of the 100GbE switch growth, holding the top share position in this segment.
  • In correlation with the strong growth in China, H3C and Huawei gained additional market share.
  • Nvidia, through its Mellanox acquisition, saw a doubling of its data center switch shipments, on the strength of its Spectrum-based 100GbE switches.
  • “Back in January 2017, we forecast that combined shipments of 100GbE and 25GbE would comprise over half of all data center Ethernet switch shipments by 2021,” Crehan said.
  • “These recent results show that the transition to higher networking speeds that underpin modern data center architectures is happening even faster than expected.”

Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Dell'Oro: Network Security and ADC market to grow at 6% CAGR

The Network Security and Data Center Appliance market, consisting of the Firewall, Content Security, Intrusion Detection System and Intrusion Prevention System (IDS and IPS), and Application Delivery Controller (ADC) markets, is forecasted to grow at 6% five-year CAGR and go from $14 B in 2019 to $19 B in 2024, according to Dell'Oro Group's newly published 5-Year Forecast report.

Some highlights:

  • The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic will continue to impact the market both negatively and positively throughout 2020 and into the first half of 2021, assuming that an effective therapy or a vaccine is developed that allows society to restabilize.
  • In aggregate, the network security market, which consists of the Firewall, Content Security, IDS, and IPS markets, will continue to experience both positive and negative factors. The negative factor of delayed spending will have a slight advantage, however, leading to flat Y/Y growth in 2020.
  • Dell'Oro expects that post-pandemic, the network security market will return to the overall growth of 8% Y/Y from 2021 to 2024 and reach $17.1 B in 2024.
  • The network security market will vary significantly from historical growth trends during the pandemic. The report predicts that the Content Security and Firewall market will rebound and return to nominal growth post-pandemic. However, the IPS and IDS market will not and will continue to its long decline.
  • During the pandemic, the ADC market will be affected by both positive and negative factors. Overall, we anticipate that the positive factor of surge spending will keep growth in positive territory at 1% Y/Y in 2020.
  • Post-pandemic, we expect that the ADC market will accelerate slightly faster than Dell'Oro predicted in its previous forecast due to the combination of positive factors ranging from market demand and vendor dynamics. The five-year CAGR forecast is 1% versus our prior forecast of flat growth.

Monday, August 3, 2020

Dell'Oro: Network equipment services market returning to growth

Following five consecutive years of market contraction, the network equipment services market is returning to growth, growing slightly in 2019 due to positive developments with Network Rollout Services and Consulting Service, according to the latest Dell'Oro Network Equipment Service Market advanced research report. This growth is offset by declines in Managed Services this year.

Some highlights:

  • Managed Services is expected to weigh on the market in the near term as vendors continue to exit contracts that are unprofitable and non-strategic.
  • Network Equipment Services are becoming more complex.
  • Following five years of dynamic share shifts, the top three vendors—Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia—have held their market share for the past three years. Together these three vendors accounted for about 75 percent of the NE Services market in 2019.

http://www.delloro.com

Sunday, July 26, 2020

Dell'Oro: Worldwide data center CAPEX continues to grow

Data center capex, which includes capex for servers and other data center infrastructure equipment, is forecasted to grow at a 6% CAGR to just over $200 B over the next five years, according to Dell'Oro Group. Growth is forecasted to be mixed depending on the customer segment. The Cloud, which already accounts for more than 60% of the worldwide data center capex, will continue to gain momentum over Enterprise/On-premise data center deployments. Edge data centers deployed over Telco networks could emerge in the longer-term horizon.

Capex on servers, which generally accounts for nearly half of the data center capex, may be influenced by the following factors:

  • Change in server unit demand from Cloud capacity and digestion cycles.
  • Market volatility of commodity pricing of components such as memory.
  • Server refresh cycles, which could prompt the replacement of aged servers and drive new deployments, could impact server architecture and pricing.
  • Servers also drive the demand for auxiliary data center infrastructure equipment such as networking switches, storage systems, and facilities.


The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to profoundly disrupt global demand for data center infrastructure equipment in 2020. Impacted vertical industries, especially brick-and-mortar retail, travel, hospitality, and small and medium enterprises, have seen a pull-back in IT spending as they wait for the business climate to stabilize. As enterprises seek to conserve capital, Public Cloud, which offers a flexible and consumption-based infrastructure, could help meet the growing demands of remote work and distance learning. The COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing recession may have the long-lasting effect of accelerating the permanent migration of certain industries and workloads to the Cloud.

Market and Technology Trends to Watch Out For

  • The Top 4 U.S. Cloud service providers—Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft—are positioned to continue their momentum of expansion over the next five years. Servers will continue to be consolidated in fewer mega Cloud data centers that could potentially provide greater capacity than the same number of servers spread out across thousands of Enterprise data centers.
  • The Top 4 U.S. Cloud service providers have been prolonging the useful life of servers in an effort to lower server depreciation expense while maintaining high efficiencies and reliability of their server fleet.
  • The Intel server processor refresh cycles have historically influenced IT spending. While the major Cloud service providers typically ramp server capacity outside of the processor refresh cycle, the upcoming Intel 10 nm Whitley server platform refresh due later this year could generate an uplift on server spending. Viable alternatives to Intel processors, AMD EPYC and ARM, for server and storage system applications are starting to materialize in certain markets.
  • Various open-source organizations have come together to share and standardize best practices in the design of efficient, scalable, and sustainable data center infrastructure. The Open Compute Project (OCP), in particular, has introduced various technological innovations in the areas of server and server connectivity, rack architecture, and networking switches, which could shape the future development of data center infrastructure.


https://www.delloro.com/news/worldwide-data-center-capex-to-grow-6-percent-cagr-by-2024-2/

Wednesday, July 22, 2020

Dell'Oro: RAN investments to surpass $200 billion

Dell'Oro Group is forecasting that the RAN market will grow at a healthy pace over the next three years, before growth tapers off in the outer part of the forecast period, resulting in a mid-single digit CAGR between 2018 and 2022. Cumulative investments over the 2019-2024 period are expected to eclipse $200 billion.

Some highlights of Dell'Oro's 5-Year RAN Forecast:

  • The Millimeter Wave outlook has been revised upward driven by improved momentum in the Asia Pacific region.
  • The pickup in mid-band deployments has propelled the demand for Massive MIMO. In this forecast, 5G NR Massive MIMO is projected to comprise more than half of the cumulative 5G NR capex.
  • The underlying assumptions driving the regional projections remain fairly unchanged, with the APAC region being the main near-term growth vehicle.
  • With more clarity about the 5G rollout plans in the North America region, we have adjusted the near-term outlook upward and now forecast the North American RAN market to continue advancing over the near-term.
  • Global macro base station (BTS) shipments are projected to remain elevated between 2020 and 2022, underpinning projections that 5G activity is set for an upturn. This positive momentum will eventually slow, resulting in some softness in the outer part of the forecast period.
  • The high level small cell vision has not changed. We expect unlicensed WiFi systems to coexist with cellular technologies. For upper mid-band deployments, operators will need to accelerate indoor deployments rapidly while the sub 6 GHz micro adoption phase will be more gradual.
  • Since the last forecast, we have adjusted the outdoor small cell outlook upward, driven primarily by a more favorable Millimeter Wave forecast.
  • Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Radio Access Network (RAN) investments, including mobile network and dedicated fixed networks, are projected to comprise a growing share of the overall RAN capex envelope over the next five years, reflecting the size of the potential upside, various technology advancements, and improving market sentiment for both basic and high performance connectivity

https://www.delloro.com/news/radio-access-network-investments-to-surpass-0-2-trillion/

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Dell'Oro: Sustained growth for the Optical Transport Market

The Dell'Oro Group is forecasting the Optical Transport market, largely comprised of DWDM systems, to expand in 2020 and for the next five years, reaching nearly $18 billion.

Some highlights from Dell'Oro's Optical Transport five-year forecast:

  • By 2024, nearly 30 percent of wavelength shipments will be from an 800 Gbps-capable line card. More than half of these line cards are expected to be used at 400 Gbps.
  • The next wavelength speed following 800 Gbps will be 1200 Gbps (1.2 Tbps). Based on the timing of past coherent DSP introductions and first-line card shipments, we anticipate 1.2 Tbps-capable line cards to enter the market in the 2023-2024 time period (but more likely in 2024).
  • Demand for Optical Transport gear for data center interconnect (DCI) is expected to take a turn in the near future.
  • Disaggregated WDM transponder unit sales are a bright spot of growth, annually growing at a double-digit percentage rate.
  • 400ZR will moderate the market’s growth.

https://www.delloro.com/news/optical-transport-market-to-expand-for-many-more-years-reaching-nearly-18-billion/

Sunday, July 19, 2020

LightCounting: Sales of optics to cloud companies on pace

Despite supply chain disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic, sales of optical components and modules to cloud companies seem to remain on track, according to LightCounting's new 2020 Mega Datacenter Optics Report.

The report provides sales projections of more than 50 product categories of Ethernet optical transceivers, DWDM optics, Active Optical Cables (AOCs) and Embedded Optical Modules (EOMs), segmented into three main applications: telecom, enterprise and cloud. The Cloud segment includes optics used inside the mega-datacenters of Cloud companies as well as in DCI routes.

"The COVID-19 pandemic brought in a new set of disruptions in early 2020. Many projects were delayed, including construction of new datacenters. Facebook postponed planned deployments of 200GbE until 2021, but ongoing deployments of 400GbE at Amazon and Google seem to remain on schedule and the market for Ethernet transceivers as a whole is expected to show modest growth in 2020. Demand for 100GbE optics from Chinese Cloud companies is likely to set a new record this year."

"With growing anti-globalization sentiment around the world, we expect that regional and national Cloud companies will take a lead in providing Cloud services. It will take many years for these companies to reach the scale of the leading American and Chinese Cloud giants, which translates to a bit slower growth for sales of optics to the Cloud segment. Emerging AI applications and growth in edge datacenters create additional demand for high speed optics, including AOCs and DWDM connections."


https://www.lightcounting.com/light-trends/sales-optics-cloud-companies-seem-be-largely-immune-covid-19/

Sunday, June 28, 2020

Global 5G connections reach 63.6 million

There are now over 63.6 million 5G connections globally as of Q1 2020, which represents 308.66% growth over Q4 2019, according to 5G Americas and data from Omdia. The forecast predicts 238 million 5G connections globally by the end of 2020, of which North America will account for 10 million connections.

Chris Pearson, President, 5G Americas said, “Globally, 5G remains the fast-growing generation of wireless cellular technology ever, even as the world is gripped with a pandemic. In North America, we are seeing consistent, strong uptake of new 5G subscribers as new devices have been released that can take advantage of low-band and millimeter wave frequencies. At the same time, new network capabilities are being added.” 

Also cited by 5G Americas:

  • Globally, there are now 82 5G commercial networks, a number which is expected to more than double to 206 by the end of 2020, according to data from TeleGeography. 
  • There are now over 100 commercial 5G device models available globally, according to the Ericsson Mobility June 2020 Report, with increasing support for low-band, mid-band and millimeter (mmWave) frequency bands.
  • Regionally by the end of Q1 2020, North America had 1.18 million 5G connections and 494 million LTE connections. This amounted to 100% growth in 5G, a gain of 591 thousand 5G connections over the quarter and 2.34% growth in LTE, a gain of 11.3 million LTE connections over the quarter. 
  • For Latin America and the Caribbean, Q1 2020 saw 3004 5G subscriptions (142.85% Q4 2019 to Q1 2020 growth) and 372 million LTE subscriptions (3% Q4 2019 to Q1 2020 growth), respectively. 


https://www.5gamericas.org/5g-continues-progress-despite-covid-19/

IDC predicts 2.8% decline in Worldwide Services Market

IDC is now forecasting a 2.8% decline in worldwide IT services and business services this year due to COVID-19, however, the forecast is calling for a 1% to 1.4% uptick in 2021.

In April, IDC predicted this market would decline 1.1% in 2020, so the new forecast is more pessimistic.

IDC said the newest forecast is based on the Economist Intelligence Unit's May forecast for worldwide GDP in 2020, which will likely contract by around 4.4%, more than twice as much as the March forecast. After almost four months of shutdowns across most developed markets, the economic downturn in the first half of 2020 will be so severe that even a robust recovery in the next six months will not offset it.

"Over the last few months of shutdowns around the world, services providers have largely shifted clients' core IT and business operations to 'work from home' environments relatively overnight without major hiccups," said Lisa Nagamine, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Semiannual Services Tracker. "This further demonstrates how adaptive and resilient vendors and buyers can be in the 'digital age'."

"We will continue to see the services market growth outpace GDP growth, even during a crisis like this," said Xiao-Fei Zhang, program director, Global Services Markets and Trends. "The pandemic is clamping down on discretionary spending, and puts the brake on many projects for now, but this will be somewhat cushioned by managed services and support services contracts that support core operations of large enterprises and government agencies."

Some additional highlights from IDC:

  • The Americas services markets are now forecast to decline 2.5% year over year in 2020, compared to the March forecast of nearly flat growth. 
  • IDC lowered the US growth forecast to -2.7% in 2020. The project-oriented markets, particularly business consulting, bore the brunt as large US consultancies have already announced workforce reductions worldwide. 
  • IDC also tempered the 2020 outlook for managed services by roughly 1%, now down 1.6%. The outlook for the support services market is unchanged and remains at -1.0% with growth in hardware and software support offset by sharp declines in training and education. 
  • Services markets in Canada also saw a sharper decline in 2020 and weaker recovery is expected across most foundation markets in the coming years, reflecting the gloomier economic outlook as the shutdown drags on. 
  • Latin America will continue to grow but will slump to less than 2% for 2020 with the outlook remaining unchanged from the March forecast.
  • Western Europe will decline 5.2% year over year in 2020 moved downward by almost one percentage point from the March forecast.
  • Central & Eastern Europe's 2020 short-term outlook was lowered while the mid- and long-term growth improved. 
  • The Middle East & Africa market will contract by more than 5% in 2020 as major markets in the region are also flanked by shutdowns and the collapse in oil prices. 
  • Japan will contract this year by 2.8% in 2020, revised downward by more than 1 percentage point with more economic metrics, such as weaker consumer spending in April and May, pointing to a weaker economy. 
  • IDC still expects the China market to deliver growth of 2.7% for 2020.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS46637720

Thursday, June 25, 2020

IDC: Cloud IT infrastructure spending up 2% in Q1

Vendor revenue from sales of IT infrastructure products (server, enterprise storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud environments, including public and private cloud, increased 2.2% in the first quarter of 2020 (1Q20) while investments in traditional, non-cloud, infrastructure plunged 16.3% year over year, according to IDC's newly updated Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker.

COVID-19 was the major factor driving infrastructure spending in the first quarter, said IDC, as widespread lockdowns across the world and staged reopening of economies triggered increased demand for cloud-based consumer and business services. This led to additional demand for server, storage, and networking infrastructure utilized by cloud service provider datacenters. As a result, public cloud was the only deployment segment escaping year-over-year declines in 1Q20 reaching $10.1 billion in spend on IT infrastructure at 6.4% year-over-year growth. Spending on private cloud infrastructure declined 6.3% year over year in 1Q to $4.4 billion.


Some highlights:

  • The pace set in the first quarter will continue through rest of the year as cloud adoption continues to get an additional boost driven by demand for more efficient and resilient infrastructure deployment. 
  • For the full year, investments in cloud IT infrastructure will surpass spending on non-cloud infrastructure and reach $69.5 billion or 54.2% of the overall IT infrastructure spend. 
  • Spending on private cloud infrastructure is expected to recover during the year and will compensate for the first quarter declines leading to 1.1% growth for the full year. 
  • Spending on public cloud infrastructure will grow 5.7% and will reach $47.7 billion representing 68.6% of the total cloud infrastructure spend.
  • Compute platforms will remain the largest category of spending on cloud IT infrastructure at $36.2 billion 
  • Storage platforms will be fastest growing segment with spending increasing 8.1% to $24.9 billion. 
  • The Ethernet switch segment will grow at 3.7% year over year.
  • At the regional level, year-over-year changes in vendor revenues in the cloud IT Infrastructure segment varied significantly during 1Q20, ranging from 21% growth in China to a decline of 12.1% in Western Europe.


https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS46639820

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

GSA tracks growth of 5G in mmWave spectrum.

Ninety-seven operators in 17 countries/territories hold public licences (many of them regional) enabling operation of 5G networks using mmWave spectrum, according to a new report from GSA.

Some highlights:

  • twenty-two operators are known to be already deploying 5G networks using mmWave spectrum.
  • thirteen countries/territories have announced formal (date-specified) plans for assigning frequencies above 24 GHz between now and end-2021.
  • eighty-four announced 5G devices explicitly support one or more of the 5G spectrum bands above 24 GHz (though note that details of spectrum support are patchy for pre-commercial devices), up from 59 at the end of November 2019. Twenty-seven of those devices are understood to be commercially available.
  • The 24.25–29.5 GHz range covering the overlapping bands n257 (26.5–29.5 GHz), n258 (24.25–27.5 GHz) and n261 (27.5–28.35 GHz) has been the most-licensed/deployed 5G mmWave spectrum range to date.
  • One hundred and twenty-three operators in 42 countries/territories are investing in 5G (in the form of trials, licences, deployments or operational networks) across the 24.25-29.5 GHz spectrum range.
  • Seventy-nine operators are known to have been licensed to deploy 5G in this range.
  • Twenty-one operators are understood to be actively deploying 5G networks using this spectrum.
  • Band n260, covering 37–40 GHz, is also used, with 33 companies in six countries/territories investing in networks using this spectrum. Of those, 32 hold licences (with the majority of those 32 based in the USA and its territories). Three operators in the USA have launched 5G using band n260.
  • Awards and assignments for mmWave spectrum (2015 onwards)


https://gsacom.com/

Sunday, June 21, 2020

LightCounting: Optical tranceiver market down 12% in Q1 due to COVID

First quarter 2020 revenues of optical transceiver and component vendors declined 12% sequentially, after reaching a new high in Q4 2019, due to the global pandemic, according to a new report from LightCounting. The report finds that companies located in China were more heavily impacted in Q1 because of the complete shutdown of factories and construction in many parts of that country. Alibaba for example spent considerably less than in Q1 2019, simply because planned construction could not proceed and equipment was in short supply.

LightCounting also finds that Huawei lost some share in 100G port shipments, while d Accelink and HG Genuine, located in Wuhan, saw revenues plummet by 30-50% sequentially.

LightCounting said it remains confident that ICP spending will continue to be a strong driver of growth in the optical transceiver market. The most recent data shows that cloud revenues of the hyper-scalers continue to grow faster than other business segments, and operate at higher profit margins – ICPs would be extremely foolish to starve their cash cows of needed infrastructure.

https://www.lightcounting.com/light-trends/no-surprise-q1-sales-reduced-covid-19-gradual-improvement-expected/


Sunday, June 14, 2020

LightCounting: Growth in Silicon Photonics

The market for silicon photonic-based products, including optical transceivers, active optical cables (AOCs) and electro-optic modulator (EOM), will increase from 14% in 2018-2019 to 45% by 2025, as the market returns to double digit growth over the next 5 years, according to a new report from LightCounting.

Some highlights from LightCounting’s Integrated Optical Devices Report:

  • Massive adoption of optical engines co-packaged with switching ASICs and FPGAs seems to be just around the corner. There are several optical transceivers on the market now, enabled by 2.5D and 3D multi-chip integration. Not all of these co-packaged chips are based on CMOS technology, but the share of CMOS is growing, and this is impacting the optics as well.
  • Acacia’s latest version of high-speed coherent DWDM transceivers is a great example. It combines a SiP-based photonic integrated circuit (PIC) with a CMOS-based DSP into a single 3D-stacked assembly, which also includes a modulator driver and TIA chips. The chips are interconnected by vertical copper pillars, to reduce power losses on RF connectors and increase speed. It is powered by an external narrow-linewidth tunable laser, which requires temperature stabilization, but the SiP-based PIC works fine in one stack with the hot ASIC.
  • The first 3D stacked design of an Ethernet transceiver was introduced by Luxtera (now Cisco) a few years ago. 2.5D integration combines multiple chips by placing them on a common substrate rather than staking them vertically. This approach is more suitable for integrating chips made of different materials, while offering similar benefits of higher speed and lower power. However, the better performance and reliability of high-speed SiP-based modulators tilts the scale in favor of this technology for both 2.5D and 3D integration.
  • The first 400GbE transceivers, sold in 2019-2020, use InP-based devices, but we expect that SiP-based 400GbE products will gain share in 2021-2025. LightCounting’s list of TOP 10 transceiver suppliers included three switch vendors in 2019: Broadcom, Cisco and Intel. All these companies are committed to CMOS and SiP technologies and they will be among the leading suppliers of 400GbE transceivers.
  • Some of the first coherent DWDM 400ZR modules will also use InP modulators, but a majority will be based on SiP, as sales of this product will start in 2020. Apart from Acacia, which is becoming part of Cisco now, Ciena, Huawei, Infinera, Nokia and ZTE also plan to manufacture 400ZR and ZR+ modules. Most of these companies are likely to use SiP for 400ZR/ZR+ designs.

LightCounting’sIntegrated Optical Devices Report provides an in-depth analysis of the impact made by integration on the market for optical transceivers and related components in 2010-2019. It also presents a forecast for shipments and sales of discrete and integrated products based on InP, GaAs and SiP technologies for 2020–2025. The forecast is segmented by main applications, including Ethernet, WDM, Active Optical Cables (AOCs) and Embedded Optical Modules (EOMs) and a few others. Products are sorted by data rate, reach, and form factor into more than 150 categories. The report also discusses the supply chain for SiP products and profiles many of the start-up companies developing integrated optical devices. A forecast for the adoption of co-packaged optics in 2023-2028 is also included.

https://www.lightcounting.com/light-trends/adoption-silicon-photonics-reaching-inflection-point/

Dell'Oro: Cloud data center CAPEX to grow at double digit rate

Cloud data center capex is forecasted to grow double-digits, although growth among Cloud service providers look to be mixed, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. Meanwhile, a sharp decline in Enterprise IT spending is expected, as macroeconomic uncertainties will likely curb capital investments.

“Data center capex returned to higher growth in 1Q 2020, as some of the major Cloud service providers had reverted from capacity digestion to expansion phase,” said Baron Fung, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Stay-at-home orders around the world are placing excess burdens on Cloud infrastructure, prompting some Cloud service providers to bolster capacity in critical areas of the network. However, infrastructure appropriated to advertising, which is facing headwinds this year as enterprises slash marketing budgets, will likely be curtailed,” explained Fung.

Additional highlights from the 1Q 2020 Data Center Capex Quarterly Report:

  • The Top 10 Cloud service providers spent $15.4 billion, in aggregate, on data centers, a 15 percent year-over-year (Y/Y) increase.
  • Worldwide Server revenue grew 1 percent Y/Y, as the Top 4 Cloud service providers expanded server capacity.
  • Shipment of white box servers, which are mainly deployed by the major Cloud service providers, grew to a record 1.3 million units.
  • Enterprise data center capex is projected to decline double-digits in 2020

https://www.delloro.com/news/cloud-data-center-capex-forecasted-for-growth-to-meet-public-cloud-demand-in-2020/

Thursday, June 11, 2020

Nokia says 5G fixed wireless access is a top use case

Consumers across the world see 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) as the most desirable 5G use case, according to a new study commissioned by Nokia and conducted by Parks Associates.

The study, which was conducted by Parks Associates, surveyed 3,000 people in the UK, US and South Korea and examined consumer understanding and demand for 5G services across six different use cases including autonomous vehicles, video surveillance and immersive technologies. The research was conducted prior to the global COVID-19 pandemic.



Some highlights:

  • 76 percent of all respondents regard FWA as the most appealing use case overall, with 66 percent claiming they would subscribe to 5G FWA if it cost the same as their current broadband service and delivers the same or better performance. 
  • 90 percent rated high-quality, uninterrupted video streams a “very valuable” aspect of 5G. 
  • A majority of consumers find 5G video use cases attractive, with 66 percent rating video capture and streaming applications appealing, and 69 percent rating video detection and alerting appealing. More than one-third of consumers found AR experiences for remote commerce appealing even before the COVID-19 crisis. The need and appeal has likely increased with social distancing.
  • Nearly half of those who work remotely indicate a strong willingness to switch providers for 5G service and more likely to intend to purchase a 5G phone. Greatly expanded remote work experience may drive plan and phone upgrades.
  • Nearly two-thirds of early 5G users are highly satisfied with the speeds they experience on 5G networks, compared with less than half of 4G users.
  • 45 percent of all consumers find connected car concepts appealing with navigation and safety capabilities seen as most valuable, but this jumps to 73 percent amongst vehicle owners. 53 percent of vehicle owners said they would be interested in bundling car connectivity with a 5G data plan.
  • Two-thirds of consumers find 5G-enabled Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality services appealing and 56 percent were drawn to cloud gaming.
https://www.nokia.com/networks/research/5g-consumer-market-research/

Tuesday, June 9, 2020

IDC: Worldwide server market revenue dips 6% in Q1

Vendor revenue in the worldwide server market declined 6.0% year over year to $18.6 billion during the first quarter of 2020 (1Q20), according to a new report from IDC. Worldwide server shipments declined 0.2% year over year to just under 2.6 million units in 1Q20.

In terms of server class, volume server revenue was down 2.1% to $15.1 billion, while midrange server revenue declined 23.0% to just under $2.6 billion, and high-end systems declined by 9.1% to just under $1.0 billion.



"Server market performance was relatively similar to the fourth quarter, albeit a bit more muted, with bright spots including the ODM Direct vendor group realizing solid demand from its core hyperscaler and cloud provider customer set, and continued strength in the non-x86 server space," said Sebastian Lagana, research manager, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "That said, the OEM market faced stiff headwinds due to a combination of slowing enterprise demand for x86 servers and supply chain constraints, both driven largely by macroeconomic impacts."

Some highlights:

  • The number one position in the worldwide server market in 1Q20 belonged to Dell Technologies with a revenue share of 18.7%. 
  • HPE/New H3C Group took the second position at 15.5%, followed by Inspur/Inspur Power Systems at 7.1%. 
  • Lenovo and IBM were tied for the fourth position with market shares of 5.6% and 4.8%, respectively. 
  • The ODM Direct group of vendors accounted for 25.9% of total server revenue and was up 6.1% year over year to nearly $4.83 billion. 
  • Dell Technologies led the worldwide server market in terms of unit shipments, accounting for 18.4% of all units shipped during the quarter.

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS46534520