Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Thursday, June 20, 2019

IDC: Cloud infrastructure spending to cool down

Vendor revenue from the sales of IT infrastructure products (server, enterprise storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud environments, including public and private cloud, grew 11.4% year over year in the first quarter of 2019 (1Q19), reaching $14.5 billion, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker.

IDC lowered its forecast for total spending on cloud IT infrastructure in 2019 to $66.9 billion – down 4.5% from last quarter's forecast – with slower year-over-year growth of 1.6%.

"As the overall IT infrastructure goes through a period of slowdown after an outstanding 2018, the important trends might look somewhat distorted in the short term," said Natalya Yezhkova, research vice president, Infrastructure Systems, Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "IDC's long-term expectations strongly back continuous growth of cloud IT infrastructure environments. With vendors and service providers finding new ways of delivering cloud services, including from IT infrastructure deployed at customer premises, end users have fewer obstacles and pain points in adopting cloud/services-based IT."

Some highlights from IDC:


  • Vendor revenue from hardware infrastructure sales to public cloud environments in 1Q19 was down 13.4% compared to the previous quarter (4Q18) but increased 8.9% year over year to $9.8 billion. This segment of the market continues to be highly impacted by demand from a handful of hyperscale service providers, whose spending on IT infrastructure tends to have visible up and down swings. 
  • After a strong performance in 2018, IDC expects the public cloud IT infrastructure segment to cool down in 2019 with vendor revenue dropping to $44.5 billion, a 2.2% decrease from 2018. Although it will continue to account for the majority of spending on cloud IT environments, its share will decrease from 69.1% in 2018 to 66.5% in 2019. In contrast, spending on private cloud IT infrastructure has showed more stable growth since IDC started tracking sales of IT infrastructure products in various deployment environments. In the first quarter of 2019, vendor revenues from private cloud environments increased 16.9% year over year reaching $4.7 billion. IDC expects spending in this segment to grow 10.1% year over year in 2019.
  • Overall, the IT infrastructure industry is at a crossroads in terms of product sales to cloud vs. traditional IT environments. In 3Q18, vendor revenues from cloud IT environments climbed over the 50% mark for the first time but has since fallen below this important threshold. In 1Q19, cloud IT environments accounted for 48.8% of vendor revenues. 
  • For the full year 2019, spending on cloud IT infrastructure will remain just below the 50% mark at 49.4%. Over the long-term, however, IDC expects that spending on cloud IT infrastructure will grow steadily and will sustainably exceed the level of spending on traditional IT infrastructure in 2020 and beyond.
  • Spending on the three technology segments in cloud IT environments is forecast to deliver growth for Ethernet switches and storage platforms while compute platforms are expected to decline in 2019. Ethernet switches will be the fastest growing at 20.9%, while spending on storage platforms will grow slightly at 1.9%. Meanwhile, compute platforms will decline by 2.8% in 2019 but will remain the largest category of spending on cloud IT infrastructure at $34.2 billion.
  • Sales of IT infrastructure products into traditional (non-cloud) IT environments remained flat compared to 1Q18. For the full year 2019, worldwide spending on traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure is expected to decline by 3.5%, as the technology refresh cycle that drove market growth in 2018 is winding down. By 2023, IDC expects that traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure will only represent 42.4% of total worldwide IT infrastructure spending (down from 51.9% in 2018). This share loss and the growing share of cloud environments in overall spending on IT infrastructure is common across all regions.
  • Most regions grew their cloud IT Infrastructure revenues in 1Q19. Middle East & Africa was fastest growing at 35.3% year over year, followed by Western Europe at 25.4% year-over-year growth. Other growing regions 1Q19 included Central & Eastern Europe (18.3%), Canada and Japan (both at 14.6%), the United States (10.7%), and China (5.4%). Cloud IT Infrastructure revenues were down slightly year over year in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) by 1.2% and in Latin America by 0.2%.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

IDC: IoT is expected to generate 79.4ZB of data in 2025

A new forecast from International Data Corporation (IDC) estimates that there will be 41.6 billion connected IoT devices, or "things," generating 79.4 zettabytes (ZB) of data in 2025.

IDC projects that the amount of data created by these connected IoT devices will see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.7% over the 2018-2025 forecast period.

Some highlights of the recently published Worldwide Global DataSphere IoT Device and Data Forecast 2019-2023 report:

  • Most of the data is being generated by video surveillance applications, but other categories such as industrial and medical will increasingly generate more data over time.
  • The industrial and automotive category will see the fastest data growth rates over the forecast period with a CAGR of 60%. 
  • Drones, while still early in adoption today, show great potential to access remote or hard to reach locations and will also be a big driver of data creation using cameras.

Tuesday, June 11, 2019

Ericsson predicts 1.9 billion 5G subscriptions in 2024

5G subscriptions are now expected to reach 1.9 billion in 2024, as operators ramp up deployments and users switch to 5G devices, according to the June 2019 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report. This is up from 1.5 billion forecasted in the November 2018 edition – an increase of almost 27 percent.

Ericsson cited rapid early momentum for 5G as the reason it has accelerated its forecast.

Additional highlights:
  • 5G coverage is forecast to reach 45 percent of the world’s population by end of 2024
  • In 2024, 5G networks are projected to carry 35 percent of the global mobile traffic
  • As 5G devices increasingly become available and more 5G networks go live, more than 10 million 5G subscriptions are projected worldwide by the end of 2019.
  • The uptake of 5G subscriptions is expected to be fastest in North America, with 63 percent of anticipated mobile subscriptions in the region being for 5G in 2024. 
  • North East Asia follows in second place (47 percent), and Europe in third (40 percent).
  • Total mobile data traffic continued to soar globally in Q1 2019, up 82 percent year-on-year. It is predicted to reach 131 exabytes (EB) per month by the end of 2024, at which time 35 percent is projected to be over 5G networks. 
  • There are 1 billion cellular IoT connections globally, a figure that is expected to rise to 4.1 billion by the end of 2024, of which 45 percent are represented by Massive IoT. Industries using Massive IoT include utilities with smart metering, healthcare in the form of medical wearables, and transport with tracking sensors.
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson, says: “5G is definitely taking off and at a rapid pace. This reflects the service providers’ and consumers’ enthusiasm for the technology. 5G will have positive impact on people’s lives and businesses, realizing gains beyond the IoT and the Fourth Industrial Revolution. However, the full benefits of 5G can only be reaped with the establishment of a solid ecosystem in which technology, regulatory, security, and industry partners all have a part to play.”

The 34-page report is here:
https://www.ericsson.com/assets/local/mobility-report/documents/2019/ericsson-mobility-report-june-2019.pdf

Monday, June 10, 2019

Dell'Oro: Broadband access equipment revenue dipped to $2.9 B in 1Q19

Global revenue for broadband access equipment declined 2 percent Y/Y in 1Q 2019, reaching $2.9 billion, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. Increased shipments of XG-PON1, XGS-PON, NG-PON2 OLT ports, and DOCSIS 3.1, CPE offset CCAP spending declined for the second straight quarter.

Additional highlights from the 1Q 2019 Broadband Access Quarterly Report:

  • Total cable access concentrator revenue decreased 38 percent Y/Y to $275 M, driven by a strong slowdown in CCAP channel purchases in North America and EMEA.
  • Total DSL port shipments decreased 21 percent Y/Y, with ADSL ports down 71 percent and VDSL ports down 20 percent.
  • Total PON OLT port shipments increased 7 percent Y/Y, with XGS-PON ports up 337 percent.
  • Total SOHO WLAN units increased 13 percent Y/Y, driven by the driven by 19% Y/Y growth in broadband CPE with WLAN and 125% Y/Y growth in mesh router units.

“The 10 Gbps FTTH deployments continue to build momentum,” said Jeff Heynen, Research Director, Broadband Access and Home Networking. “The next-gen fiber increases nearly offset the weakness in cable CCAP spending, as cable operators push off new capacity purchases while they determine how to move forward with distributed access architectures,” explained Heynen.

Sunday, June 9, 2019

Dell'Oro: SP core router market fueled by 100GE adoption

The worldwide Service Provider Core Router market grew 7 percent year-over-year in 1Q 2019, according to a recently published report by Dell’Oro Group, driven by telecommunications and cloud operators upgrading networks with 100 Gigabit Ethernet technologies.

According to the report, 100 GE router port shipments hit a record level in 1Q 2019.

“Network operators are benefitting from lower prices of 100 GE products to add capacity to their backbone and metro networks—the volume of 100 GE port shipments almost doubled year-over-year,” said Shin Umeda, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Demand for core routers was strong in the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe, more than offsetting lower sales in North America,” added Umeda.

Additional highlights from the 1Q 2019 Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch Quarterly Report:

  • Cisco was the top-ranked Service Provider Core Router vendor, followed by Huawei, and Juniper.
  • The Service Provider Edge Router market increased 2 percent year-over-year, showing some early, yet modest effects 5G backhaul upgrade projects.

http://www.delloro.com/news/service-provider-core-router-market-fueled-100-gigabit-ethernet-adoption

Dell’Oro: Slowdown in cloud CapEx growth

A slowdown in cloud CapEx growth rate weighed on the Data Center Switch market growth in 1Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.  The year-over-year growth of Data Center Switching revenue fell below 5 percent for the first time in almost five years.

Some highlights from Dell'Oro's 1Q 2019 Ethernet Switch – Data Center Quarterly Report:

  • 25 GE and 100 GE composed about half of the market revenue and two-thirds of shipments.
  • 400 GE shipments continued to ramp for the second consecutive quarter, albeit driven mostly by Google.
  • 100 GE ports are expected to nearly double in 2019, while the 400 GE refresh cycle is not expected to have a material effect until 400 GE optics become available in 2020.

“The deceleration of Cloud capex spending started in 2H 2018 but appeared more severe at certain Cloud Service Providers (SPs) this quarter. However, our analysis of Cloud capex indicates that the second half of this year will grow at a higher rate,” said Sameh Boujelbene, Senior Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Despite this deceleration, Arista, one of the vendors with high exposure to Cloud SPs, managed to gain share to capture 20 percent of the North American market, while Cisco was the top-ranked vendor with more than 40 percent share,” added Boujelbene.

IDC: Server market revenue up 4% in 1Q19

The worldwide server market increased 4.4% year over year to $19.8 billion during 1Q19, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Server Tracker.

Worldwide server shipments declined 5.1% year over year to just under 2.6 million units in 1Q19.

Some highlights from IDC:

  • The overall server market slowed in 1Q19 after experiencing six consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth although pockets of robust growth remain. 
  • Volume server revenue increased by 4.2% to $16.7 billion, while midrange server revenue grew 30.2% to $2.1 billion. 
  • High-end systems contracted steeply for a second consecutive quarter, declining 24.7% year over year to $976 million.

"Demand from both enterprise buyers and hyperscale companies purchasing through ODMs was less voracious than in previous quarters; coupled with a difficult compare period from a year ago, this impacted the pace of market growth during the first quarter," said Sebastian Lagana, research manager, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "This was most evident in declining unit shipments during the quarter, although year-to-year average selling price (ASP) increases supported revenue growth for many vendors. As long as demand for richly configured servers supports further ASP growth, the market will offset slight declines in unit volume."

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45151319

IDC: Enterprise storage capacity shipments grow 14% in Q1, sales dip

Vendor revenue in the worldwide enterprise storage systems market decreased 0.6% year over year to $13.4 billion during the first quarter of 2019 (1Q19), according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Enterprise Storage Systems Tracker.

Total capacity shipments were up 14.1% year over year to 114.2 exabytes during the quarter.

Some highlights from IDC:
  •  datacenters declined 5.3% year over year in 1Q19 to $2.95 billion. This represents 22.1% of total enterprise storage investments during the quarter. 
  • Sales of server-based storage decreased 6.6% year over year to just over $3.6 billion in revenue. This represents 26.6% of total enterprise storage investments. 
  • The external storage systems market revenue totaled nearly $6.9 billion during the quarter, up 5.0% from 1Q18.

"First quarter 2019 results are an acceleration of the slowdown we noted last quarter, with declining ODM and internal (server-based) storage the primary drivers of market contraction." said Sebastian Lagana, research manager, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies. "OEM vendors selling dedicated storage arrays still generated growth during the quarter, although slowing flash-centric array growth indicates that the opportunity for existing install-base upgrades is beginning to wane."



https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45155319

Sunday, June 2, 2019

IDC: Switching market grows 7.8%, routing up 8.2%

According to IDC, the Worldwide Ethernet switch (Layer 2/3) market grew revenues 7.8% in Q1 2019 to $6.8 billion, while the worldwide enterprise and service provider (SP) router market saw revenues increase 8.2% year over year to $3.6 billion.

"Organizations across the globe are looking to digitally transform themselves in an effort to meet market and competitive needs and improve user experiences. As they do so, enterprises are realizing the critical role the network plays in their broader IT transformation initiatives," said Rohit Mehra, vice president, Network Infrastructure, at IDC. "This has led to continued, and growing, investment in Ethernet switching, routing, software-defined networks (SDN), and SD-WAN platforms and architectures that support the increasing demands of an always-connected world."



Some highlights of the newly updated IDC Quarterly Ethernet Switch Tracker and IDC Quarterly Router Tracker:


  • From a geographic perspective, the 1Q19 Ethernet switch market had a strong quarter across the globe. The Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) (APeJ) region grew 8.6% year over year. Notable gains in the region included China, which grew 11.7% year over year, and Taiwan, which increased 15.3%. Meanwhile, Japan's Ethernet switch market rose 1.3%.
  • The Middle East and Africa (MEA) region saw growth of 9.5% year over year, led by Egypt, which rose 17.3%. Europe saw more modest growth with Western Europe growing 3.5% and Central and Eastern Europe remaining stagnant with 0.3% year-over-year growth. Notable markets in Western Europe included the United Kingdom, which was down 1.2% from a year earlier, while Germany was up 2.3% and Italy grew 15.5% year over year. In Central and Eastern Europe, Russia declined 13.4% year over year. In the Americas, the United States grew 11.9% while Canada increased 2.6% year over year. Latin America was down 4.5% overall with Brazil's 8.5% year-over-year decline offset by 11.0% growth in Mexico.
  • Port shipments for 100Gb switches rose 85.3% year over year to 3.6 million. 100Gb revenues grew 59.0% year over year in 1Q19 to $1.2 billion, making up 17.3% of the market's revenue. 
  • 25Gb ports also saw impressive growth, increasing 133.3% to $304.0 million, with port shipments growing 104.8% year over year. 
  • 40Gb switches continue to be falling out of favor with revenues declining 21.3% year over year. 
  • Lower-speed campus switches, a more mature part of the market, showed moderate growth. 10Gb port shipments rose 8.6% year over year to make up 28.7% of the market's revenue. 
  • The worldwide enterprise and service provider router market grew 8.2% on a year-over-year basis in 1Q19 with the major service provider segment, which accounts for 75.3% of revenues, increasing 7.1% and the enterprise segment of the market growing 11.9%. 
  • From a regional perspective, the combined service provider and enterprise router market increased 12.0% in APeJ with the enterprise segment up 17.7%. Japan's total market grew 27.1% year over year. Central and Eastern Europe regional revenues rose 19.7% year over year, while the Western Europe combined enterprise and service provider market grew 3.7% year over year. The Middle East & Africa region was up 12.6% fueled by a 15.7% increase in service provider revenues. In the U.S., the enterprise segment was up 15.7% but the service provider revenues fell 5.8%, causing the total market to decline 0.5% year over year. Canada's market rose 28.5% year over year and the Latin American market grew 9.0%.
  • Cisco finished 1Q19 with an 8.3% year-over-year increase in overall Ethernet switch revenues and market share of 53.7%. In the hotly contested 25Gb/100Gb segment, Cisco is the market leader with 39.4% of the market's revenue. Cisco's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue rose 15.3% year over year, with enterprise router revenue increasing 16.1% and service provider revenues growing 14.8%. Cisco's combined SP and enterprise router market share increased to 42.4%, up from 37.4% in 4Q18.
  • Huawei's Ethernet switch revenue rose 18.9% on an annualized basis, giving the company market share of 8.9%, up from 8.1% a year earlier. The company's combined service provider and enterprise router revenue rose 5.7% year over year with a market share of 24.5%.
  • Arista Networks saw Ethernet switch revenues increase 24.0% in 1Q19, bringing its share to 7.5% of the total market, up from 6.5% a year earlier. The company continues to cater to the higher end of Ethernet switch speeds, with 100Gb revenues accounting for 67.6% of the company's total revenue, indicating the company's focus on hyperscale and cloud providers.
  • HPE's Ethernet switch revenue declined 5.6% year over year, giving the company a market share of 5.3%.
  • Juniper's Ethernet switch revenue declined 23.4% in 1Q19, bringing its market share to 2.6%. Juniper saw an 8.2% decline in combined enterprise and service provider router sales, bringing its market share in the router market to 10.4%.

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS45119319

Thursday, May 23, 2019

Vertical Systems Group: 2018 U.S. Carrier Managed SD-WAN LEADERBOARD

Vertical Systems Group announces that eight companies achieved a position on
AT&T achieved the top position on Vertical Systems Group's 2018 U.S. Carrier Managed SD-WAN Services LEADERBOARD.

The top eight companies (in rank order): AT&T, Hughes, Verizon, Windstream, CenturyLink, Aryaka, Fusion and Comcast. These companies had the highest market shares of installed Carrier Managed SD-WAN customer sites in the U.S. as of year-end 2018.

"Providers in the Carrier Managed segment of the SD-WAN market have emerged as the best choice for delivering large scale, complex and resilient SD-WAN services end-to-end," said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. "We believe that network operators with deep experience in MPLS, Ethernet and IP are most favorably positioned to support enterprise customers as they transition their networks to SDN."

Companies with the next largest market shares in this segment are cited in the Challenge Tier. The following six companies attained a Challenge Tier citation for 2018 (in alphabetical order): Bigleaf, GTT, Masergy, Meriplex, Sprint, and TPx.

Research Highlights

  • SD-WAN is one of the three Managed VPN segments that Vertical tracks, along with MPLS and Site-to-Site VPNs. Service migration analysis shows that the majority of Carrier Managed SD-WAN service installations to date are hybrid configurations that include partial conversions of existing Site-to-Site and MPLS networks.
  • The top five Carrier Managed SD-WAN companies are also the leading providers of Dedicated IP VPN services, including landline and satellite connectivity.
  • A number of SDN-based technologies are utilized to deliver Carrier Managed SD-WAN services. The fourteen LEADERBOARD and Challenge Tier providers use products from the following companies (in alphabetical order): Cisco/Viptela, Silver Peak, Versa, and VMware/VeloCloud, or employ their own internally developed technologies. Several SD-WAN service providers offer multiple solutions.
  • Vertical Systems Group defines a Carrier Managed SD-WAN Service as a carrier-grade offering for business customers that is managed by a network operator, utilizes an SDN architecture, enables dynamic customer edge site connectivity, and provides centralized network control and visibility end-to-end. This definition aligns with MEF terminology for an SD-WAN service.

https://www.verticalsystems.com/2019/05/21/2018-sd-wan-us-leaderboard/

Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Mobile Experts: Small Cell market to reach $5.2B by 2024

The LTE Small Cells market grew 20% year over year in unit shipment and 20% year over year in over value in 2018, reaching $2.9 billion, according to a new 108-page report from Mobile Experts.

"As the market transitions to 5G, we will see some challenges for Small Cells—especially in the outdoor segment. Overall, we do see growth drivers in Private LTE and 5G, which are included in this forecast. Even after excluding the 5G millimeter wave radio units, our Small Cells market is expected to grow from over $2.9 billion in 2018 to $5.2 billion in 2024…a 10% CAGR," commented Principal Analyst Kyung Mun.

Mobile Experts tackles both the Carrier Indoor segment and the Carrier Outdoor segment with rigorous analysis. The Indoor segment, which includes Distributed Radio Systems (DRS) such as Huawei Lampsite, Ericsson RadioDot, ZTE Qcell, and Nokia ASiR, will remains a key driver for the overall market, according to the report.   The 5G network transitions will require some very interesting augmentation with in-building DRS deployment, so with 5G the small cell layer is becoming an integral part of the network from the beginning.

According to Mr. Mun, "5G Massive MIMO will have a profound impact on C-band small cell strategies, and we will see a shift to a new approach.   Also, Private LTE and Edge Computing use cases will drive significant growth in the small cell market, with new customer groups aligning to drive growth.    We also see substantial adoption for CBRS, LAA, and Wi-Fi connectivity in small cells as a low-cost way to add capacity."

This report provides a high level view of how CBRS, LAA, Wi-Fi, and MIMO will play roles in the small cell market.   Mobile Experts has published reports over the past year that dive into the deeper details of these technology areas, so the Small Cell report provides a business-level overview for all Small Cell deployment and how these features play into the overall HetNet.

https://www.mobile-experts.net/

Monday, April 1, 2019

Vertical Systems: AT&T tops U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD

Vertical Systems Group’s 2018 U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD results are as follows (in rank order by number of fiber lit buildings): AT&T, Verizon, Spectrum Enterprise, CenturyLink, Comcast, Cox, Crown Castle Fiber, Frontier, Zayo, Altice USA, and Windstream. These eleven retail and wholesale fiber providers qualify for this benchmark with 10,000 or more on-net U.S. fiber lit commercial buildings as of year-end 2018.

Additionally, thirteen companies qualify for the 2018  Challenge Tier as follows (in alphabetical order): Atlantic Broadband, Cincinnati Bell, Cleareon, Cogent, Consolidated Communications, FiberLight, FirstLight, GTT, IFN, Logix Fiber Networks, Segra, Unite Private Networks, and Uniti Fiber. These fiber providers each qualify for the 2018 Challenge Tier with between 2,000 and 9,999 U.S. fiber lit commercial buildings.

“Following a flurry of mergers and acquisitions, fiber providers focused on new buildouts in 2018 to meet customer demand for higher speed dedicated access to business services and to support 5G pilots,” said Rosemary Cochran, principal of Vertical Systems Group. “Our research shows that while the majority of large and medium size commercial buildings in the U.S. are fiber lit with one or more providers, relatively few small multi-tenant buildings are fiber connected. Cable MSOs and regional network operators have been most actively targeting fiber investment opportunities in this underserved segment.”

Fiber Provider Research Summary

  • AT&T ranks #1 on the Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD for the third consecutive year.
  • Frontier moves into the #8 position, up from ninth in the prior year.
  • As a result, Zayo falls to #9, down from eighth position.
  • Windstream enters the LEADERBOARD at #11, moving up from the Challenge Tier.
  • Atlantic Broadband and GTT advance to the Challenge Tier, both moving up from the Market Player tier.
  • Cincinnati Bell’s acquisition of Hawaiian Telecom, which was completed in 2018, is reflected in this analysis.
  • Segra is the new brand name for the merged entity of Lumos Networks and Spirit Communications.


https://www.verticalsystems.com/2019/03/26/2018-fiber-lit-leaderboard/

Thursday, March 28, 2019

IDC: Cloud IT infrastructure Revenues dropped in 4Q18

Vendor revenue from sales of IT infrastructure products (server, enterprise storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud environments, including public and private cloud, grew 28.0% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2018 (4Q18), reaching $16.8 billion, according to a new repor from IDC.

IDC reported that annual spending (vendor revenue plus channel mark-up) on public and private cloud IT infrastructure totaled $66.1 billion in 2018, slightly higher (1.3%) than forecast in Q3 2018. IDC also raised its forecast for total spending on cloud IT infrastructure in 2019 to $70.1 billion – up 4.5% from last quarter's forecast – with year-over-year growth of 6.0%.

Some highlights from IDC:

  • Quarterly spending on public cloud IT infrastructure was down 6.9% in Q418 compared to the previous quarter but it still almost doubled in the past two years reaching $11.9 billion in 4Q18 and growing 33.0% year over year, while spending on private cloud infrastructure grew 19.6% reaching $5.75 billion. 
  • Public cloud represented 69.6% of cloud IT infrastructure spending in 2018.
  • Spending on public cloud infrastructure growing at an annual rate of 50.2%. 
  • Spending on private cloud grew 24.8% year over year in 2018.
  • In 4Q18, quarterly vendor revenues from IT infrastructure product sales into cloud environments fell and once again were lower than revenues from sales into traditional IT environments, accounting for 48.3% of the total worldwide IT infrastructure vendor revenues, up from 42.4% a year ago but down from 50.9% last quarter. For the full year 2018, spending on cloud IT infrastructure remained just below the 50% mark at 48.4%. Spending on all three technology segments in cloud IT environments is forecast to deliver slower growth in 2019 than in previous years. Ethernet switches will be the fastest growing at 23.8%, while spending on storage platforms will grow 9.1%. Spending on compute platforms will stay at $35.0 billion but still slightly higher than expected in IDC's previous forecast.
  • The rate of annual growth for the traditional (non-cloud) IT infrastructure segment slowed down from 3Q18 to below 1% but the segment grew 11.1% quarter over quarter. For the full year, worldwide spending on traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure grew by 12.2%, exactly as forecast, as the market has started going through a technology refresh cycle, which will wind down by 2019. By 2023, we expect that traditional non-cloud IT infrastructure will only represent 40.5% of total worldwide IT infrastructure spending (down from 51.6% in 2018). This share loss and the growing share of cloud environments in overall spending on IT infrastructure is common across all regions.

"The unprecedented growth of the infrastructure systems market in 2018 was shared across both cloud and non-cloud segments," said Kuba Stolarski, research director, Infrastructure Systems, Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "As market participants prepare for a very difficult growth comparison in 2019, compounded by strong, cyclical, macroeconomic headwinds, cloud IT infrastructure will be the primary growth engine supporting overall market performance until the next cyclical refresh. With new on-premises public cloud stacks entering the picture, there is a distinct possibility of a significant surge in private cloud deployments over the next five years."

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44971119



Wednesday, March 20, 2019

LTE accounts for 47% of cellular connections worldwide

Approximately 4 billion connections worldwide are now LTE, representing 47% of all cellular connections, according to the trade group 5G Americas and Ovum.

North America’s market share for LTE at 82 percent exceeds all other world regions at the fourth quarter of 2018; the next highest world regions are Oceania; Eastern and South Eastern Asia with LTE share of 67 percent followed by Western Europe at 52 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean had significant growth of LTE market share to 40 percent, up from 29 percent at the end of 2017. Market share represents the percentage of mobile wireless connections that are LTE technology versus all other mobile cellular technologies.



“While the 5G market reality and innovation are upon us, the number of LTE connections continue to grow on 637 commercial networks worldwide, as well as the evolution to advanced LTE networks for the Internet of Things, Gigabit LTE speeds and new methods for spectrum use and sharing,” stated Chris Pearson, President of 5G Americas.

Additional highlights

4Q 2018 - North America

  • LTE achieved 417 million connections with a market share of 82 percent in the U.S. and Canada.
  • LTE penetration passed 100 percent in 2018. This penetration rate is forecast to rise to 125 percent in 2021 after which time new 5G connections will begin to impact LTE subscriptions and penetration rates. Penetration rates represent the number of connections compared to the population.
  • 417 million LTE connections at 4Q 2018; increase of 63 million year-over-year
  • LTE is forecast to reach 86 percent market share with 473 million connections at the end of 2020 (including M2M) then begin to decline as 5G connections begin to grow; in 2021, LTE market share is forecast to decline to 83 percent and 467 million LTE subscriptions
  • Early launches of 5G in the U.S. will result in the #1 position globally in 2019 with 336,000 connections, 47 percent of all global 5G connections; however, 5G connections will quickly grow in North America to almost 4 million in 2020 (forecast)
  • 5G connections are forecast to pass 100 million in 2022

4Q 2018 - Latin America and the Caribbean

  • LTE’s market share increased from 17 to 29 percent year-over-year at year-end 2017, and grew to 40 percent by the end of 2018. LTE is forecast to be the most widely used cellular technology in the region by the end of 2019.  
  • 700 million total mobile wireless subscriptions
  • 277 million LTE connections; 74 million added year-over-year from 4Q 2017
  • 4Q 2018 was the largest growth quarter for LTE in 2018 with 19.8 million new connections while all other mobile technologies declined; GSM lost 53 million connections and was down to 123 million at the end of 2018
  • LTE is forecast to reach 348 million connections at the end of 2019, 413 million at end of 2020, and peak at 510 million connections by 2022 with 67 percent market share (forecast includes M2M)
  • By 2021, 5G is forecast to achieve nearly 3.5 million connections growing to 17 million in 2022 and 75 million connections in 2023  

4Q 2018 - Global 


  • At the end of 2018, global LTE connections reached nearly 4 billion. Also notable, LTE market share reached 47 percent, up from 37 percent at the end of 2017.


http://www.5gamericas.org

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

GSMA: China’s mobile ecosystem equivalent to 5.5% of China’s GDP

China’s mobile ecosystem added RMB5.2 trillion ($750 billion) in value to the country’s economy last year, equivalent to 5.5 percent of China’s GDP in 20181, according to a new GSMA report.

Highlights:

  • China is the largest mobile market in the world, home to almost 1.2 billion unique mobile subscribers2 at the end of 2018, representing 82 percent of the country’s population;
  • More than two thirds (69 percent) of mobile connections in China3 are smartphones, with smartphone adoption expected to reach 88 percent of connections by 2025;
  • 77 percent of China’s connections are currently running on 4G networks – 4G adoption will peak in the coming years before falling as consumers migrate to next-generation mobile services;
  • China is set to become one of the world’s leading 5G markets with 460 million 5G connections forecast by 2025, which would account for 28 percent of China’s total connections by this point;
  • The RMB5.2 trillion ($750 billion) economic contribution by China’s mobile ecosystem in 2018 is forecast to grow to RMB6 trillion ($870 billion) by 2023;
  • China’s mobile ecosystem, directly and indirectly, supported 8.5 million jobs in 2018 and made a tax contribution to the public finances of government of RMB583 billion ($84 billion).
  • The number of licensed cellular IoT connections in China stood at 672 million at the end of 2018, supporting various industrial and smart cities applications.

The new report ‘The Mobile Economy China 2019’ is authored by GSMA Intelligence, the research arm of the GSMA.

“Our new report outlines how China’s mobile industry has been a key driver of economic growth, inclusion and modernisation – creating a new generation of digital consumers and transforming industry and society,” said Mats Granryd, Director General of the GSMA. “After spending billions over the last decade deploying 4G networks to all corners of the country, Chinese mobile operators are now set to invest a further RMB401 billion ($58 billion) over the next two years to prepare for and begin 5G rollouts, laying the groundwork for China to become one of the world’s leading 5G markets.”



https://www.gsma.com/r/mobileeconomy/china/

Monday, March 18, 2019

IDC: Worldwide server market remains robust

Vendor revenue in the worldwide server market increased 12.6% year over year to $23.6 billion during the fourth quarter of 2018 (4Q18), according to a new report from IDC. Worldwide server shipments increased 5.0% year over year to just under 3.0 million units in 4Q18.

"Reduced demand from hyperscale companies created downward pressure on worldwide server market growth rates during the quarter," said Sebastian Lagana, research manager, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "This was offset by increased server sales to enterprise customers and higher average selling prices (ASPs). Enterprises are buying richly configured servers to support resource intensive workloads, resulting in higher ASPs and pushing revenue growth higher than growth from unit shipments."



Highlights:

  • The overall server market continues to experience robust demand with 4Q18 marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth and its highest total revenue in a single quarter ever. 
  • Volume server revenue increased by 17.8% to $19.0 billion, while midrange server revenue grew 30.3% to $2.5 billion. High-end systems declined 28.3% to $2.1 billion.
  • Tied for the number one position in the worldwide server market during 4Q18 were Dell Inc., at 18.7% revenue share, and HPE/New H3C Group, with 17.8% revenue share, growing 20.4% and 10.5% year to year respectively. 
  • IBM was the third-ranked server supplier during the quarter capturing 8.3% of total server revenues. IBM's performance during the quarter excludes sales generated through the company's recently established partnership with Inspur Power Systems. 
  • Inspur/Inspur Power Systems and Lenovo tied for fourth with revenue shares of 6.6% and 6.2% respectively. Inspur/Inspur Power Systems increased its revenue 70.7% year over year and Lenovo increased its revenue 33.8% year over year. The ODM Direct group of vendors accounted for 20.1% of total revenue, up 11.6% year over year to $4.7 billion. This was an uncharacteristically low growth rate for this group of companies. 
  • Dell led the worldwide server market in terms of unit shipments, accounting for 19.4% of all units shipped during the quarter. 

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS44905719


Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Vertical Systems: 2018 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD

AT&T ranks first on Vertical Systems Group's 2018 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD, followed by Colt, CenturyLink, BT Global and Orange, Verizon, and NTT.

The Global Provider LEADERBOARD ranks companies that hold a 4% or higher share of billable retail ports at sites outside of their respective home countries.

Share margins continue to narrow among the leading global service providers in this very competitive market segment. Latest share results show a major shakeup in the rankings for the top five companies as compared to year-end 2017, with each in a new position on the 2018 Global Provider LEADERBOARD.

"Multinational customers are massively upgrading bandwidth and expanding connectivity to cloud services and data centers. Ethernet providers with extensive global fiber footprints that deeply serve strategic business hubs are capturing a large portion of this new business," said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group.

Year-End 2018 Global Provider Segment Highlights:

  • AT&T holds first position, which it initially attained by surpassing Orange Business at mid-2018. AT&T ranked second at the end of 2017.
  • Colt ranks second, up from third position in 2017.
  • CenturyLink is in third position. The company ranked fourth at year-end 2017 when it initially entered the top tier following its merger with Level 3.
  • BT Global Services is fourth, as compared to fifth in 2017.
  • Orange Business holds fifth position. The company previously held first position on every year-end Global Provider LEADERBOARD between 2009 and 2017.
  • GTT is a new entrant to the Challenge Tier, advancing from the Market Player tier for the first time.
More: https://www.verticalsystems.com/2019/03/12/2018-global-ethernet-leaderboard/

Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Vertical Systems': Incumbent carriers most U.S. retail Ethernet ports

CenturyLink, AT&T, Verizon, Windstream and Frontier have gained a position on the 2018 U.S. Incumbent Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD, according to Vertical Systems Group's latest research.

The Incumbent Carrier LEADERBOARD, which ranks incumbents in order based on U.S. retail Ethernet port share for this segment, is an industry benchmark for measuring Ethernet market presence. To qualify for the 2018 U.S. Incumbent Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD, companies must have either a top rank or a Challenge Tier citation on the 2018 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD.

Some highlights:

  • CenturyLink, AT&T, Verizon and Windstream each hold a top rank on the 2018 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD. Frontier has a Challenge Tier citation for 2018.
  • The Incumbent Carrier segment accounted for more than half of the 1.1+ million retail Ethernet customer ports installed in the U.S. at the end of 2018.
  • Incumbent Carrier is one of three U.S. provider segments, along with the Competitive Provider and Cable MSO segments. Incumbent Carriers are facilities-based telecom companies, including IXC and LEC providers.

Other companies in the Incumbent Carrier segment selling retail Ethernet services in the U.S. market include the following (in alphabetical order): Alaska Communications, Cincinnati Bell, TDS Telecom and other local and regional incumbents.

Research sources for share calculations include Vertical Systems Group's base of enterprise installations, plus direct input from biannual surveys of network operators selling Ethernet network services.

Detailed Ethernet share results that power the Year-End 2018 U.S. Ethernet Segment LEADERBOARDs are available now exclusively to ENS Research Program subscribers. For more information Contact Us.



Dell'Oro: Double digit growth for WLAN market in Q4

Double-digit growth characterizes Wireless LAN (WLAN) market in 4Q and full-year 2018, despite a soft China, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. China sees a comeback in 4Q 2018, particularly Huawei.

"The growth of the WLAN market in 4Q and full-year 2018 came primarily from a surge in North America as users refreshed networks with 802.11ac Wave2 products, and opted for extra applications such as higher levels of security, location finding, and cloud-managed," said Ritesh Patel, WLAN analyst at Dell'Oro Group. "We predict 2019 sales to accelerate as WiFi 6 shifts from an early shipment phase to widespread availability, and vendors bring more applications to market targeted at specific verticals," added Patel.

Other findings in the report include:

  • Huawei reported a seasonally strong 4Q, a remarkable comeback after its low in 1H 2018 when Chinese Service Providers stopped deploying WLAN in mobile environments.
  • We predict the WLAN market to enter a period when revenue growth out paces unit growth as users opt for higher-featured, higher-priced WiFi 6 products, and applications deployed via cloud-managed license subscriptions.
  • During 2018, cloud managed subscription license revenue eclipsed hardware revenue.
  • SOHO Wireless Router sales rose 20% during 2018, driven by Whole Home Mesh.

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Crehan: 100GbE Data Center Switch Shipments passed 40GbE in '18

Customer adoption of 100 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) and 25GbE data center switches increased significantly in 2018, with shipments of each technology more than doubling year-over-year, according to the latest report from Crehan Research Inc.

This increase drove the overall data center Ethernet switch market to its strongest shipment growth since 2015 as well as to record revenue results. Furthermore, as shown in the accompanying figure, annual 100GbE data center switch port shipments surpassed those of 40GbE, a transition that has occurred approximately just three years after initial high-density 100GbE switch silicon-based systems started production shipments.

“10GbE and 40GbE data center switch shipments each declined in 2018, while 25GbE and 100GbE continued to grow significantly, signaling that we are now solidly in the 100/25GbE era,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Because of its compelling
value propositions, this modern data center architecture is now being widely deployed across public, private, and hybrid cloud data centers to handle a broad and diverse set of application workloads.”

Other noteworthy results from Crehan’s data center switch report include:

  • Overall market average selling prices were (once again) very stable in 2018. In fact, over the past four years, overall data center Ethernet switch market average selling prices have fallen by less than five percent in total.
  • Cisco accounted for about half of total branded data center Ethernet switch revenues in 2018, driven by very strong customer adoption of its Nexus 9000 series 100GbE and 25GbE data center
  • switching products.
  • Arista gained the most data center Ethernet switch revenue and shipment share in 2018, picking up three share points in both of those areas.
  • Despite a significant slowdown in 4Q18, both Huawei and H3C also had annual data center Ethernet switch share gains in 2018.
  • Although total 10GbE data center switch shipments declined in 2018, 10GBASE-T shipments continued to grow, even with weakness in this segment in the latter half of the year.
  • “The wide deployment of 100GbE switching, with an annualized port shipment run-rate now approaching the tens of millions, sets a very solid foundation for the upcoming 400GbE ramp likely starting in the second half of this year," Crehan said. 

See also