Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Sunday, July 25, 2021

Dell'Oro: Optical transport market reaches $18 billion by 2025

 The Optical Transport market, largely driven by WDM equipment, is forecasted to increase in size annually for the next five years, reaching nearly $18 billion, according to Dell’Oro Group's Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report. The top number is unchanged from Dell'Oro's earlier forecast, however, the outlook is lower for  WDM Metro since the coherent 400 Gbps ZR (400ZR) pluggable optics are now available and "interest in using them in an IPoDWDM architecture seems high."


Some highlights:

  • demand for coherent ZR optical pluggables is expected to reach a material amount in 2022, starting with 400ZR. Demand is expected to be high with Internet content providers (ICPs), driving a very high percentage growth rate for the next few years. 
  • 800ZR is expected to enter the market a few years later. 
  • the ZR pluggable optics market will surpass $500 million in annual sales by 2025.
  • Demand for 800 Gbps-capable line cards, first introduced in early 2020, has rapidly increased, demonstrating a strong rate of adoption as well as the market's continued desire for higher performance DWDM transponder cards.
  • The next wavelength speed following 800 Gbps will be 1200 Gbps (1.2 Tbps). 
  • Dell'Oro anticipates that 1.2 Tbps-capable line cards could enter the market before the end of 2023.
  • Dell'Oro forecasts that by 2025 about one-third of all coherent wavelength shipments will be from a line card capable of transmitting a signal at a speed of 800 Gbps or higher.

https://www.delloro.com/5-year-forecast-optical-transport-market-reaches-18-billion-by-2025/

Dell'Oro: Mobile Core Network market to top $50 B from 2021 to 2025

The Mobile Core Network (MCN) to have an overall revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% from 2020 to 2025, according to Dell'Oro Group's updated Mobile Core Network 5-Year Forecast Report which covers the market for Wireless Packet Core, IMS Core, policy, and subscriber management. The report also estimates the 5G portion of the MCN market to have a 33% CAGR. 


Some key highlights:

  • The cumulative investment is expected to be over $50 B from 2021 to 2025, with regional shares in the range for North America – 18 % to 23 %; Europe, Middle East, and Africa – 30 % to 35 %; Asia Pacific – 40 % to 45 %; and Caribbean and Latin America – 5 % to 10 %.
  • By the year 2025, MCN functions associated with 5G are expected to represent over 70 % of the revenue mix between 4G and 5G MCN functions.
  • 5G Core builds by the three incumbent service providers for 5G Standalone (5G SA) networks in China are continuing to exceed our expectations. In addition, in 2021, the new Chinese communications service provider, China Broadcasting Network will be beginning construction of its 5G SA network.
  • Deployments of more 5G SA networks are expected in the latter half of 2021 in Australia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. AT&T and Verizon should begin in earnest in 2022 and 2023 with their 5G SA networks. Geographic coverage is minimal at launch and is expected to grow throughout the forecast period.

Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Dell'Oro: RAN revenues on track for a quarter trillion by 2025


Cumulative worldwide radio access network (RAN) revenues are projected to approach a quarter trillion USD over the 2020 to 2025 forecast period to accommodate the surging demand for 5G, according to a newly published forecast report by Dell'Oro Group.

"The global upswing that began in the second half of 2018 has become deeper and stronger, propelling the overall RAN market to continue to surprise on the upside," said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and analyst with the Dell’Oro Group. "Even with the market surprising on the upside, we believe that there is room for expansion over the near term as the early adopters continue to roll out 5G at an extraordinary pace, resulting in a more upbeat 5-year outlook relative to our last forecast," continued Pongratz.

Other highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • The unexpected RAN surge is primarily driven by 5G NR. LTE is roughly on target but 5G NR revenues have accelerated.
  • 5G NR RAN revenues to approach $150 Billion to $200 Billion.
  • Cumulative 2020-2025 base station shipments remain on track to surpass 30 M.
  • Global macro and small cell transceiver shipments to approach 0.8 Billion.

Thursday, July 1, 2021

IDC: Cloud compute and storage infrastructure spending up 12.5% YoY

Spending on compute and storage infrastructure products for cloud infrastructure, including dedicated and shared environments, increased 12.5% year over year in the first quarter of 2021 (1Q21) to $15.1 billion, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Enterprise Infrastructure Tracker: Buyer and Cloud Deployment. 

Some highlights:

  • Investments in non-cloud infrastructure increased 6.3% year over year in 1Q21 to $13.5 billion.
  • Spending on shared cloud infrastructure increased 11.6% year over year in 1Q21, reaching $10.3 billion. 
  • Shared cloud infrastructure spending is expected to surpass non-cloud infrastructure spending in the near future. 
  • Spending on dedicated cloud infrastructure increased 14.7% year over year in 1Q21 to $4.8 billion with 45.5% of this amount deployed on customer premises. 
  • IDC is forecasting cloud infrastructure spending to grow 12.9% to $74.6 billion for 2021, while non-cloud infrastructure is expected to grow 2.7% to $58.5 billion after two years of declines. 
  • Shared cloud infrastructure is expected to grow by 12.2% year over year to $51.8 billion for the full year. Spending on dedicated cloud infrastructure is expected to grow 14.7% to $22.7 billion for the full year.
  • Spending on cloud infrastructure increased across most regions in 1Q21, with the highest annual growth rates in Canada (40.3%), China (PRC) (35.0%), and Asia/Pacific excluding Japan and China (APeJC) (28.8%). 
  • Western Europe grew 10.8%, the United States grew 4.5%, and Japan declined 1.1%. The smaller regions had mixed results and collectively grew 0.1%.

At the vendor level, all major vendors grew their cloud infrastructure revenue in 1Q21, with the highest growth rates belonging to Lenovo (38.2%) and Huawei (37.9%). Huawei, Lenovo, and HPE/H3C(a) each grew their market share compared to results from the prior year's first quarter.

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS48050621

Saturday, June 19, 2021

Ericsson: Mobile data traffic continues to soar

Mobile network data traffic grew 46 percent between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021, according to the latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report.  The extensive study finds that s of mid-year 2021, more than 160 communications service providers have launched 5G services and over 300 5G smartphone models have been announced or launched commercially.  Ericsson predicts there will be over 580 million 5G users worldwide by the end of 2021.

"As societies plan a return to a more normal situation after the pandemic, the need to secure and invest in high-quality digital infrastructure should be on everyone’s agenda as a key component of economic recovery. It’s a good thing, then, that the industry able to deliver on that need is already on its way to doing so," states Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Business Area Networks, Ericsson.

Some highlights from the 36-page report:

  • There are currently around 8 billion mobile subscriptions and this figure is expected to increase to 8.8 billion by the end of
  • 2026, of which 91 percent will be for mobile broadband. 
  • The number of unique mobile subscribers is projected to grow from 5.9 billion in Q1 2021 to 6.5 billion by the end of the forecast period.
  • Over 70 percent of all service providers are now offering fixed wireless access (FWA) services and connections are forecast to exceed 180 million by the end of 2026, accounting for more than 20 percent of total mobile network data traffic globally.
  • In 2026, 5G networks will carry more than half of the world’s smartphone traffic.
  • Mobile network data traffic grew 46 percent between Q1 2020 and Q1 2021.

The full report is available for download.

https://www.ericsson.com/49cd40/assets/local/mobility-report/documents/2021/june-2021-ericsson-mobility-report.pdf

Tuesday, June 15, 2021

Dell'Oro: Total telecom equipment market up 15% in Q1

 The overall telecom equipment market grew 15% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the first quarter, reflecting positive activity in multiple segments and regions, lighter comparisons, and a weaker US Dollar, according to analysis from Dell’Oro Group.  This includes sales in the following categories:  Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core & Radio Access Network, and Service Provider Router & Switch revenue.

Some highlights from Dell'Oro:

  • The collective global share of the leading suppliers remained relatively stable between 2020 and 1Q21, with the top seven vendors comprising around ~80% of the total market.
  • Huawei maintained its leading position, however, the gap between Nokia and Ericsson, which was around 5 percentage points back in 2015, continued to shrink and was essentially eliminated in the quarter. 
  • Samsung passed Ciena in the quarter to become the #6 supplier.
  • Excluding North America, Dell'Oro estimates Huawei’s revenue share was about 36% in the quarter, nearly the same as the combined share of Nokia, Ericsson, and ZTE.
  • Following three consecutive years of growth between 2018 and 2020, preliminary readings suggest the positive momentum that characterized the overall telco market in much of 2020 extended into the first quarter, underpinned by double-digit growth on a Y/Y basis in both wireless and wireline technologies including Broadband Access, Microwave Transport, Mobile Core Network, RAN, and SP Router & Switch.
  • In addition to easier comparisons due to poor market conditions in 1Q20 as a result of supply chain disruptions impacting some segments, positive developments in the North America and Asia Pacific regions, both of which recorded growth in excess of 15% Y/Y during the first quarter, helped to explain the output acceleration in the first quarter.
  • Aggregate gains in the North America region was driven by double-digit expansion in Broadband Access, RAN, and SP Routers & Switch.

Further highlights here:

https://www.delloro.com/key-takeaway-1q-2021-total-telecom-equipment-market/


Dell’Oro: Ethernet controller and adapter sales up 6%

Ethernet controller and adapter revenue grew 6 percent quarter-over-quarter in 1Q 2021 as inventory correction from the prior quarter eases, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. The market research firm projects the server refresh and cloud expansion to drive higher demand later this year.

“In light of the tightening global semiconductor supply chain, we believe server vendors are proactively increasing inventory levels of Ethernet controllers and adapters in anticipation of higher demand later this year,” said Baron Fung, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “As a result, shipments of 10 and 25 Gbps ports grew moderately. Meanwhile, we observed strong momentum for 100 Gbps ports, as the Tier 1 Cloud service providers adopt higher speed ports following data center networking upgrades, and to support the growing demands of accelerated computing and all-flash array storage across the industry,” added Fung. 

Additional highlights:
  • Total Ethernet controller and adapter revenue forecast to grow 4 percent in 2021. 
  • Next-generation adapters with 200 Gbps connectivity are starting to ramp. 
  • Amazon and Microsoft accounted for 90 percent of the Smart NIC port shipments in 1Q 2021. 
  • Other leading Smart NIC vendors reported include Broadcom, Marvell, Napatech, and Nvidia.

Monday, June 14, 2021

Dell'Oro: Sales of data center switches surged in Q1

Global Data Center Switch market revenue were up 14 percent year-over-year in 1Q21, the strongest growth rate recorded since 1Q18, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. Growth was healthy across all major customer segments (Cloud Service Providers, Telco Service Providers, and Large Enterprises) and all regions, except Latin America.

“In line with our predictions, the recovery in the data center switch market, which started in the second half of last year, continued to accelerate in 1Q21,” said Sameh Boujelbene, Senior Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Although this strong performance was in part due to an easy year-over-year comparison, it was more reflective of an improvement in the demand environment. Additionally, impact from supply chain challenges on revenue and pricing environment during the quarter was minimal but may become more pronounced in the remainder of the year,” added Boujelbene.


Additional highlights from the 1Q21 Ethernet Switch – Data Center Report:

  • Major vendors with revenue share gain in the first quarter period are Arista, H3C, and Huawei.
  • 25 Gbps, 100 Gbps, and 400 Gbps comprised more than 60 percent of the data center switch port shipments in 1Q21 as the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of new generation speeds and the decline of legacy speeds.

https://www.delloro.com/news/sales-of-data-center-switches-surged-in-the-first-quarter-of-2021/

Dell'Oro: XGS-PON OLT spending takes off

Total global revenue for the Broadband Access equipment market increased to $3.3 B in 1Q 2021, up 18 percent year-over-year (Y/Y), according to Dell'Oro Group. Growth came from spending on PON OLT ports, particularly 10 Gbps PON technologies.

"The shift to 10 Gbps PON technologies is happening quickly and on a global basis," noted Jeff Heynen, Vice President, Broadband Access and Home Networking at Dell'Oro Group. "The only thing preventing further expansions are supply chain constraints and increased costs," explained Heynen.

  • Additional highlights from the 1Q 2021 Broadband Access and Home Networking quarterly report:
  • Total broadband access equipment revenue was down 6 percent from the record revenue of 4Q 2020.
  • Total cable access concentrator revenue increased 15 percent Y/Y to $243 M. Though DOCSIS license purchases were down, new hardware purchases in the form of CCAP chassis, line cards, and DAA nodes and modules helped push revenue higher.
  • Total DSL Access Concentrator revenue was down 30 percent Y/Y, driven by slower port shipments worldwide as more operators shift their spending to fiber.
  • Total PON ONT revenue was down quarter over quarter, but unit shipments remained above 30 M globally for the second straight quarter.

https://www.delloro.com/news/continued-strong-fiber-investments-push-result-in-18-percent-y-y-growth-in-broadband-equipment-spending/

Wednesday, June 2, 2021

Cignal AI: Spending rebounds for worldwide optical and packet transport

 Worldwide spending on network transport equipment increased 4% in the first quarter of 2021, according to the most recent Transport Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI. Strong gains in switching and routing spending were offset by the slightly weaker deployment of optical transport equipment. Spending by Chinese network operators slowed across all product categories after 2020’s strong growth, while the rest of the world rebounded this quarter.

“Chinese spending on optical transport hardware has plateaued as major 5G network builds mature and new projects have not been initiated,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Transport Hardware at Cignal AI. “China’s extraordinary growth during 2015 to 2018 could not continue long term due to the impracticality of expanding upon the enormous amounts that had already been spent in the region.”

Additional 1Q21 Transport Hardware Report Findings:

  • First-quarter 2021 worldwide optical hardware spending was slightly negative YoY, as China and NA declines dragged the average down. All other regions reported growth YOY.
  • Worldwide packet transport sales grew in the first quarter. Edge, Core, and Aggregation all grew by more than 10% YoY when compared against an especially weak 1Q20.
  • Japan’s extraordinary run of packet transport spending growth continued into Q1; up nearly +40% YoY. Much of the growth belongs to established carriers (as opposed to newcomers like Rakuten). Cisco continues to lead sales in the region, and the company more than doubled its packet transport sales YoY.
  • Optical hardware sales in China declined nearly -10%, despite being compared to a weak 1Q20. The current quarter’s decline was unexpected since China has resolved COVID issues and was expanding rapidly for 5G, OTT, and regional interconnections.
  • EMEA’s Q1 optical hardware sales were very strong; up more than 20% YoY. Despite reports of Huawei losing new deals in the region (e.g. Swisscom and DT), the company’s market share leadership remained steady.

https://cignal.ai/2021/06/spending-rebounds-for-worldwide-optical-and-packet-transport/

Thursday, May 13, 2021

IDC: Worldwide public cloud services market grew 24% in 2020

The worldwide public cloud services market, including Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS), System Infrastructure Software as a Service (SISaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Software as a Service (SaaS), grew 24.1% year over year in 2020 with revenues totaling $312 billion, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Semiannual Public Cloud Services Tracker.

Spending continued to consolidate in 2020 with the combined revenue of the top 5 public cloud service providers (Amazon Web Services, Microsoft, Salesforce.com, Google, and Oracle) capturing 38% of the worldwide total and growing 32% year over year. Thanks to an expanding portfolio of SaaS and SISaaS offerings, Microsoft now shares the top position with Amazon Web Services in the whole public cloud services market with both companies holding 12.8% revenue share for the year.

"Access to shared infrastructure, data, and application resources in public clouds played a critical role in helping organizations and individuals navigate the disruptions of the past year," said Rick Villars, group vice president, Worldwide Research at IDC. "In the coming years, enterprises' ability to govern a growing portfolio of cloud services will be the foundation for introducing greater automation into business and IT processes while also becoming more digitally resilient."

While the overall public cloud services market grew 24.1% in 2020, consistent with the past four years, the IaaS and PaaS segments have consistently grown at much faster rates. This highlights the increasing reliance of enterprises on a cloud foundation built on cloud infrastructure, software defined data, compute and governance solutions as a Service, and cloud-native platforms for application deployment for enterprise IT internal applications. IDC expects spending on foundational cloud services (especially IaaS and PaaS) to continue growing at a higher rate than the overall cloud market as resilience, flexibility, and agility guide IT platform decisions.

"Cloud service providers are rapidly expanding their portfolio of infrastructure and platform services to address confidential computing, performance-intensive computing, and hybrid deployment scenarios," said Dave McCarthy, vice president, Cloud and Edge Infrastructure Services. "Extending these foundational cloud services to customer premises and communications networks enables a broader set of use cases than previously possible."

"The high pace of growth in PaaS, IaaS, and SISaaS, which combined account for about half of the public cloud services market, reflects the demand for solutions that accelerate and automate the development and delivery of modern applications" said Lara Greden, research director, Platform as a Service. "As organizations adopt DevOps approaches and align according to value streams, we are seeing PaaS, IaaS, and SISaaS solutions become increasingly adopted and, at the same time, grow in the range of services and thus value they provide. Innovations in edge and IoT use cases are also contributing to the faster rates of growth in these markets." 

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47685521

Thursday, May 6, 2021

IDC: Global semiconductor sales hit $464 billion in 2020, up 11%

Worldwide semiconductor revenue grew to $464 billion in 2020, an increase of 10.8% compared to 2019, according to the the Semiconductor Applications Forecaster (SAF) from International Data Corporation (IDC). IDC forecasts the semiconductor market will reach $522 billion in 2021, a 12.5% year-over-year growth rate. IDC anticipates continued robust growth in consumer, computing, 5G, and automotive semiconductors.

IDC expects supply constraints will continue through 2021. While shortages initially occurred in automotive semiconductors, the impact is being felt across the board in semiconductors manufactured at older technology nodes. Much like a traffic jam and the ripple effect, a disruption on the semiconductor supply chain operating close to capacity will impact across the supply chain. The industry will continue to struggle to rebalance across different industry segments, while investment in capacity now will improve the industry's resiliency in a few years. Looking forward to 2021, IDC sees continued strong growth in semiconductor sales worldwide as adoption of cloud technologies and demand for data and services remain unchanged. Global fiscal and monetary policy remain accommodative and will provide a tailwind for continued capital investments in long term infrastructure.

"Automotive sales recovered in the second half of 2020, but the supply constraints for the automotive semiconductor market for some products will last through 2021 as fires and fab shutdowns further impacted the automotive semiconductor market and it takes time for chips to move through the automotive ecosystem, specifically in the U.S. and Europe," said Nina Turner, research manager, Automotive Semiconductors. For 2021, IDC forecasts that automotive semiconductor revenue will grow 13.6%.

"Overall, the semiconductor industry remains on track to deliver another strong year of growth as the super cycle that began at the end of 2019 strengthens this year," said Mario Morales, program vice president, Semiconductors at IDC. "The markets remain narrowly focused on shortages across specific sectors of the supply chain, but what is more important to emphasize is how critical semiconductors are to every major system category and content growth that remains unabated."

The market for semiconductors in Computing systems, such as PCs and servers, outpaced the overall semiconductor market, growing 17.3% year over year to $160 billion in 2020. "Demand for PC processors remains strong, especially in value-oriented segments," said Shane Rau, research vice president, Computing Semiconductors. "The PC processors market looks strong through the first half and likely the whole year." IDC forecasts Computing systems revenues will grow 7.7% to $173 billion in 2021.

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47664821

Sunday, April 25, 2021

Vertical Systems Group: 2020 U.S. Fiber Availability

New deployments of optical fiber to U.S. commercial buildings and data centers expanded in 2020 despite the pandemic, according to the latest ENS @Fiber Plus research from Vertical Systems Group. Fiber lit buildings are strategic assets that enable competitive advantages such as more profitable delivery of services and applications requiring up to gigabit speeds.

The latest research analysis shows that fiber availability for commercial sites continues to vary widely based on the size of the building. The U.S. Fiber Lit Landscape chart below illustrates the two primary segments tracked for this research: Fiber 20+ (buildings with twenty or more employees) and Fiber <20 (buildings with fewer than 20 employees). 

For 2020, fiber availability extends to 14.1% of buildings in the Fiber <20 segment. In contrast, the availability of fiber is 69.2% for all buildings in the Fiber 20+ segment. Detailed ENS research available for Fiber 20+ shows how fiber penetration varies significantly across four medium/large building size segments: 20 – 50 employees, 51 – 100 employees, 101 – 250 employees and 251+ employees.

Fiber market leadership is measured by Vertical Systems Group with annual Fiber LEADERBOARD benchmarks based on lit building counts. Eleven retail and wholesale fiber providers attained a rank position on the 2020 U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD.

A fiber-lit building is defined for this analysis to include multi-tenant and company-owned commercial sites plus data centers that have on-net optical fiber connectivity to a network provider’s infrastructure and active service termination equipment onsite. Excluded from this analysis are standalone cell towers, small cells not located in fiber-lit buildings, near net buildings, buildings classified as coiled at curb or coiled in building, HFC-connected buildings, carrier central offices, residential buildings, and private or dark fiber installations.

https://www.verticalsystems.com/

Dell'Oro hires Cliff Grossner to cover Edge Computing and IT Equipment Silicon

Dell'Oro Group has appointed Dr. Cliff Grossner to the role of Vice President, Edge Computing and IT Equipment Silicon including coprocessors for AI and ML. His current research agenda also includes AI driven data center automation suites and adoption of open infrastructure including OCP certified designs.

Dr. Grossner has more than 25 years of telecommunications experience encompassing scientific research, market analysis, strategy, and product management. Prior to joining Dell'Oro Group, Dr. Grossner held management roles in Omdia, and IHS Markit, focused on cloud services, data center IT and physical infrastructure.  He frequently is an expert judge for industry and technology innovation awards and an invited speaker, and often quoted in technical publications. Dr. Grossner earned his Ph.D. at McGill University, and his MSC in Computer Science at Concordia University, winning national scholarships to support his graduate work. He holds over 10 patents in computer networking, network embedded security and telecommunications applications.

"Dr. Grossner adds significant fire-power and experience in the world of IT equipment, components, and the intelligence software running over it. The team is excited with the perspectives and wisdom a man of his caliber brings. He has an excellent track record of identifying emerging markets and developing theories on where they are headed. I am very pleased Dr. Grossner has joined us," Tam Dell'Oro, Founder and CEO said.

 "I am excited to join Dell'Oro Group to research IT ecosystems, innovation has never been higher, driven by digitization and consumer demands. Equipment markets are shifting due to new technology, new business models, and disruptive early stage companies. I look forward to being first to identify and quantify new trends, provide insight on markets changes, help with product and go to market strategies following the Dell'Oro tradition of providing timely, accurate, and insightful information," commented Grossner.


http://www.delloro.com


Monday, April 5, 2021

Crehan: growth in 25GbE, 50GbE, 100GbE NICs, as well as SmartNICs

Data center customers deployed seven million more server-class Ethernet Network Interface Card (NIC) ports in 2020 than in 2019, resulting in a new record high for this market, according to a recent report from Crehan Research. Most of the new deployments were 25 gigabit Ethernet (GbE), 50GbE, and 100GbE NICs. This, in combination with a strong increase in SmartNIC adoption, drove revenue growth well above the year’s robust shipment growth.

Even with these strong results in 25GbE, 50GbE and 100GbE NICs as well as SmartNICs, Crehan’s report indicates that these technologies are still mostly in the early stages of adoption and should have numerous years of growth ahead.

“More users, deploying more applications requiring more bandwidth, fueled strong demand for both faster and smarter server-class Ethernet NICs,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Although there are factors specific to the pandemic that helped accelerate demand, these are still long-term trends that will continue to drive increased server-class Ethernet NIC deployments.”

Other noteworthy results from Crehan’s Server-Class Ethernet Adapter & LOM/Controller (NIC) report include:

  • 200GbE NICs started to ship in 2020, with Nvidia currently driving these volumes.
  • 100GbE NICs saw particularly strong demand in the latter half of 2020, helped by the arrival of server platforms for artificial intelligence workloads, such as Facebook’s Zion. Broadcom and Nvidia were the main drivers of this strong 100GbE NIC growth.
  • Intel accounted for the majority of total server-class Ethernet NIC shipments in 2020.

“We have entered a period of increased server-class Ethernet NIC innovation, as vendors and data center operators look for different and creative ways to address the new vectors of bandwidth demand coming from areas such as artificial intelligence, 5G and Edge computing, and disaggregated compute and networking,” Crehan said.

https://www.crehanresearch.com/

Sunday, April 4, 2021

5G adoption is tracking 3X as fast as LTE

 Global adoption of 5G is happening at 3X the pace as with 4G LTE, according newly released statistics from the trade organization 5G Americas.

According to data provided by Omdia, the world added 385.5 million 5G subscribers between Q4 2019 and Q4 2020 to reach 401 million 5G connections globally, shrugging off the challenges of a global pandemic and economic headwinds. 

Chris Pearson, President, 5G Americas said, “5G is in its early stages of fulfilling its full potential, as the industry has just finished the second inning of a nine-inning baseball game. In the second full year of commercially available 5G, the industry went from 15.4 million to 401 million subscribers. The uptake of 5G connections will accelerate significantly over the next few years.”

Some highlights from 5G Americas:

  • Omdia projects that by the end of 2025, global 5G connections will reach 3.4 billion. Regionally, the number of connections is forecast to reach 451 million in North America and 167 million in the Caribbean and Latin America by the end of 2025.
  • From a commercial availability standpoint, an additional 105 5G networks went live globally in 2020, bringing the total up to 163 5G networks. The number of commercial 5G networks is expected to reach 277 by the end of 2021, according to data from TeleGeography. The growing availability of 5G-enabled devices has also blossomed, with the Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) noting there are now 628 5G devices announced, of which 404 were commercially available by the end of February 2021.
  • In addition to 5G, 4G LTE connections also experienced healthy growth in 2020, surpassing year-end projections of 5.73 billion to reach a total of 6 billion connections. Of those, 499 million 4G LTE connections are from North America and 407 million from Latin America and the Caribbean.
  • Broken down regionally, North America had 19.96 million 5G connections and 499 million LTE connections by the end of Q4 2020. For the region, this amounts to a 4098% annual growth in 5G, and a gain of over 19.5 million 5G connections over the year. Meanwhile, 4G LTE gained over 22 million connections in 2020, which represents 4.7% growth.
  • With 5G just beginning in Latin America and the Caribbean, the region saw 6340 5G subscriptions added in the year of 2020. In contrast, LTE continued its strong growth, ending Q4 2020 with 407 million LTE subscriptions (13% YoY growth). 

According to Jose Otero, Vice President of Caribbean and Latin America for 5G Americas “"Two elements can contribute to the proliferation of new commercial 5G networks in Latin America and the Caribbean. First, the increased availability of 5G-ready devices, especially for fixed wireless services. Second, governments' efforts to accelerate the launch of 5G networks that include spectrum assignment processes, 5G incubator projects, spectrum auction announcements and incentives for 5G trials.”

The number of networks using 4G and 5G wireless technologies are summarized here, as of March 2021:

Global

  • 5G:  163
  • LTE Advanced: 340
  • LTE: 678

North America 

  • 5G: 10
  • LTE Advanced: 11
  • LTE: 20

Latin America &amp; Caribbean

5G: 13

  • LTE Advanced: 48
  • LTE: 124

*Source: TeleGeography and 5G Americas

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Vertical Systems: 2020 U.S. Carrier Managed SD-WAN LEADERBOARD

 The following companies achieved a position on Vertical Systems Group's 2020 U.S. Carrier Managed SD-WAN Services LEADERBOARD (in rank order based on site share): AT&T, Hughes, Verizon, Comcast, Windstream, Lumen, Aryaka and TPx. These service providers each have two percent (2%) or more of the installed and billable Carrier Managed SD-WAN customer sites in the U.S. as of December 31, 2020.

“The managed SD-WAN market in the U.S. endured the pandemic as service providers installed hundreds of new networks in extremely challenging conditions throughout the past year. Businesses and enterprises accelerated the retirement of MPLS assets, and made purchase decisions for SD-WAN solutions that enable more flexible access options and dynamic connectivity,” said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. “Some provider positions changed on our 2020 Leaderboard benchmark, and we expect further shuffling of the ranks as additional sizeable networks are activated this year.”

Four companies attained a Challenge Tier citation for 2020 (in alphabetical order): Fusion Connect, GTT, Meriplex and MetTel. The Challenge Tier includes service providers with between one percent (1%) and two percent (2%) share of U.S. Carrier Managed SD-WAN sites.

Research Highlights

  • Expansion of Carrier Managed SD-WAN services in the U.S. increased 39% in 2020, despite the pandemic. As previously projected, demand was resilient across bandwidth intensive markets, but vulnerable for verticals like retail and travel. Pre-pandemic site growth was 89% for managed SD-WAN services in 2019.
  • AT&T, Hughes and Verizon retain the top three U.S SD-WAN LEADERBOARD positions for the third consecutive year based on latest site share results.
  • Comcast advances to rank fourth for 2020, moving up from seventh position in 2019.
  • Windstream remains in fifth position. Lumen (formerly CenturyLink) moves to sixth position, from fourth in the prior year. Aryaka dips from sixth to seventh position. TPx debuts in eighth position, moving up from the Challenge Tier.
  • MetTel advances to Challenge Tier, up from the Market Player tier.
  • MEF 3.0 SD-WAN Service Certification has been attained by four of the 2020 LEADERBOARD companies: AT&T, Verizon, Comcast and Windstream.
  • The primary technology suppliers for the 2020 LEADERBOARD companies are VMware, Versa, Fortinet, and Cisco (vEdge/Viptela and selected Meraki MX models). Additionally, Aryaka and Hughes utilize internally developed technologies.
  • MEF 3.0 SD-WAN Technology Certification has been attained to date by Versa, VMware and Fortinet.

Market Players include providers selling Carrier Managed SD-WAN services in the U.S. with site share below one percent (1%), including global network providers that manage U.S. customer sites. For 2020, the Market Player tier includes the following companies (in alphabetical order): AireSpring, American Telesis, Bigleaf, bSimplify, BT Global Services, Cincinnati Bell, Cogent, Colt, Consolidated Communications, Cox, Crown Castle Fiber, DQE Communications, FirstLight, Frontier, Intelsat, Masergy, NTT, Orange Business, PCCW Global, PS Lightwave, RCN Business, SDN Communications, Segra, SES, SingTel, Sparklight Business, Spectrum Enterprise, Syringa, T-Mobile, T-Systems, Tata, Telefonica, Telia, Telstra, Transtelco, Veracity Networks, Virgin Media Business, Vodafone, Wave Business, Zayo and others.

Vertical Systems Group defines a Carrier Managed SD-WAN Service for segment analysis and share calculations as a carrier-grade offering for business customers that is managed by a network operator. Required components and functionality for these offerings include an SDN service architecture that enables dynamic optimization of traffic flows, a purpose-built SD-WAN appliance or CPE-hosted SD-WAN VNF (Virtual Network Function) at each customer edge site, support for multiple active underlay connectivity services, and centralized network orchestration with application visibility end-to-end.

https://www.verticalsystems.com/2021/03/25/2020-us-sd-wan-leaderboard/

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Cignal AI: Drop in spending from N.American cloud and telcos in 4Q20

After spending aggressively during the first half of 2020, Traditional Telco operators (Incumbent and Wholesale) in North America curbed spending on optical and packet hardware during the fourth quarter. 4Q20 spending by these operators dropped almost 40%, according to the 4Q20 Transport Customer Markets Report from market research firm Cignal AI.

“North American network operators spent much less than usual in 4Q20 as they installed and used capacity acquired earlier in the year amidst COVID uncertainties,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Transport Hardware. “This will change in 2021 as first Cloud and then Traditional operators resume normal spending patterns.”

 Key Findings from the 4Q20 Transport Customer Markets Report:

  • Fourth Quarter spending on optical hardware by Cloud & Colo expanded dramatically in APAC but declined in EMEA and North America.
  • Ciena lost some sales of optical transport equipment to Cloud operators but maintained market leadership in 2020. Huawei (due to growth in APAC), Nokia, and Infinera all gained share.
  • Huawei maintained market share leadership for the year in both optical and packet transport equipment sales to Traditional Telcos. The company has not yet seen market share declines from growing political pressure in EMEA.
  • Enterprise & Government spending on optical hardware was resilient for the year; defying expectations that it would decline due to COVID pressures.
  • Transport markets should return to growth in the second half of 2021 as COVID restrictions are lifted, operational difficulties are resolved, and businesses resume normal operations. Strength will be led by Cloud & Colo operators, followed by Traditional Telco operators.

https://cignal.ai/2021/03/north-american-traditional-telco-and-cloud-capex-drops-in-fourth-quarter/

Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Crehan: 100GbE shipments surpass 10GbE

Total shipments of 100 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) data center switch ports increased more than 20% during full-year 2020, according to a recent report from Crehan Research Inc. The robust increase, combined with a continuing decline in 10GbE shipments, resulted in 100GbE surpassing 10GbE to become the most widely deployed data center Ethernet switch connection speed.

Crehan’s data center Ethernet switch report further shows that this speed transition has occurred very rapidly, with 100GbE becoming a majority of shipments approximately just five years after initial 32*100GbE port (3.2Tbps) switch deployments. The hyperscale cloud service provider customer segment has been a key driver of the transition, accounting for the majority of cumulative 100GbE data center switch shipments to date.

“The data center Ethernet switch market’s transition to 100GbE as the most popular network connection speed is a reflection of the strong customer adoption of public data center networking: statistics analysis insights cloud services,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “100GbE has been the de facto switch port speed in some of the largest hyperscale cloud service provider data center networks for over four years. Furthermore, this rapid migration to 100GbE has brought some significant market share shifts within the data center switch supplier ecosystem, and these shares are now in play again as the transition to 200GbE and 400GbE gains traction.”

Other noteworthy results from Crehan’s data center switch report include:

  • Arista accounted for close to 40% of cumulative 100GbE branded data center switch shipments.
  • Cisco accounted for over 40% of cumulative 100GbE branded data center switch revenue.
  • H3C, Huawei, and Juniper each shipped more than two million cumulative 100GbE data center switch ports since product introductions.
  • Nvidia’s 100GbE data center switch shipments more than doubled in 2020.
  • 25GbE data center switching also had very strong annual growth in 2020, with shipments increasing more than 30%.
  • Although data center Ethernet switch revenues declined slightly for the full year, there was a general progression of improvement from a steep year-over-year decrease in 1Q20 to moderate year-over-year growth by 4Q20.

"The robust 2020 growth for 100GbE shipments was impressive, given that two of the largest data center switch customers – Amazon and Google – have been ramping 400GbE deployments strongly," Crehan said.

https://www.crehanresearch.com/

Saturday, March 13, 2021

IDC: Server markets grows in revenue, shrinks in shipments

Vendor revenue in the worldwide server market grew 1.5% year over year to $25.8 billion during the fourth quarter of 2020 (4Q20), however, worldwide server shipments declined 3.0% year over year to nearly 3.3 million units, according to IDC's newly updated Worldwide Quarterly Server.

"Global demand for enterprise servers was relatively flat during the fourth quarter of 2020 with the strongest increase to demand coming from China (PRC)," said Paul Maguranis, senior research analyst, Infrastructure Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "From a regional perspective, server revenue within PRC grew 22.7% year over year while the rest of the world declined 4.2%. Blade systems continued to decline, down 18.1% while rack optimized servers grew 10.3% year over year. Similar to the previous quarter, servers running AMD CPUs as well as ARM-based servers continued to grow revenue, increasing 100.9% and 345.0% year over year respectively, albeit on a small but growing base."

https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS47529021