Showing posts with label Dell'Oro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dell'Oro. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Dell'Oro: Tier 1 Cloud Service Providers to resume spending

Cloud data center CAPEX is forecasted for higher growth despite market challenges, according to a recently published report from Dell’Oro Group. The trend is driven by Tier 1 Cloud service providers resuming spending on servers following a pause in 2019.

“Despite recent market uncertainties, we anticipate the Tier 1 Cloud service providers to increase data center capex as planned, primarily on servers, as the sector seeks to resume capacity expansion,” said Baron Fung, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “We project a steep decline in enterprise IT spending due to severe near-term supply and demand disruptions from COVID-19. Enterprises will seek to conserve capital during these uncertain times and resort to the Cloud to satisfy near-term demand for digital services. We expect that the Cloud service providers will need to expand their infrastructure at a measured pace to capture this incremental demand,” explained Fung.

Following are additional highlights from the 4Q 2019 Cloud Data Center Capex Quarterly Report:

  • The Top 10 Cloud service providers spent $66 billion, in aggregate in 2019, a 3 percent annual increase.
  • Amazon Web Services maintained a 50 percent Cloud revenue share in 2019, although Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform gained share.
  • Spending on servers projected to compose of 47 percent of data center capex in 2020.

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Dell'Oro: Anemic growth in data center switch market during 4Q19

The worldwide Data Center Switch market revenue grew only one percent year-over-year (Y/Y) in 4Q 2019, according to a recent report by Dell'Oro Group. This is the slowest growth recorded in six years. Revenue from North America and Europe was down but, surprisingly, China grew at a strong double-digit Y/Y rate during the quarter.

“In line with our expectations, the Top 4 U.S. Cloud Service Providers (SPs) posted mixed performance. Google and Amazon’s strong growth was partially offset by weakness from Facebook and Microsoft,” said Sameh Boujelbene, Senior Director at Dell’Oro Group. “Additionally, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties in North America and Europe continued to weigh on network spending from Tier 2/3 Cloud SPs and large enterprises. However, what’s intriguing this quarter is the growth witnessed in China despite macroeconomic headwinds in the region. We believe part of this growth could reflect inventory buildup as well as some government projects to stimulate the economy,” added Boujelbene.

Additional highlights from the Ethernet Switch – Data Center Quarterly Report:

  • Market softness is expected to persist through 1H 2020.
  • Macroeconomic headwinds are expected to deteriorate due to the potential impact from Coronavirus (COVID-19) on demand as well as supply.
  • Arista, Cisco, Juniper, and Dell initiated early 400 Gbps shipments.

Thursday, March 5, 2020

Dell’Oro: Optical Transport sector grew 6% in 2019

The Optical Transport equipment market, driven by WDM system sales, grew 6 percent in 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. Two equipment manufacturers—ZTE and Ciena—increased their optical revenue the most, securing additional market share gains this year.

“The optical equipment market shined fairly bright this year,” said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Considering the Optical Transport market hasn’t posted a revenue growth rate greater than 4 percent in the past seven years, this was really a welcome surprise, brought on by continued demand for WDM systems across all regions. The most revenue contribution came from two regions: Europe, Middle East and Africa or EMEA for short and Asia Pacific,” added Yu.

Additional highlights from the 4Q 2019 Optical Transport Quarterly Report:

  • ZTE’s market share increased two percentage points in 2019 due to a strong sales recovery from last year’s U.S. ban. This lifted ZTE’s share across all regions with the exception of North America where ZTE no longer has meaningful revenue.
  • Ciena’s market share increased one percentage point in 2019 driven by the company’s rising sales in data center interconnect applications, driven by the success of its Disaggregated Transponder Unit or stackable systems sales.

Monday, March 2, 2020

Dell'Oro: telecom equipment market grew 2% in 2019

The overall telecom equipment market – Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core & Radio Access Network, SP Router & CE Switch - advanced 2% during 2019, recording a second consecutive year of growth, according to preliminary figures from Dell'Oro Group.

Full-year 2019 revenue shares relative to 2018 revenue shares for the top five suppliers – the latter indicated here in parenthesis – show that Huawei, Nokia, Ericsson, ZTE, and Cisco comprised 28% (28%), 16% (17%), 14% (14%), 10% (8%), 7% (8%), respectively.

Additional key takeaways from the 4Q19 reporting period include:

  • Following three years of declining revenues between 2014 and 2017, the overall telecom equipment market advanced for a second consecutive year in 2019, validating the message we have communicated for some time now, namely that there are reasons to be excited about the telecom market.
  • Within the technology segments, mid-single digit growth in Optical Transport and RAN was more than enough to offset weaker demand for Microwave Transport and Broadband Access equipment. The two largest equipment markets in the year were Mobile RAN and Optical Transport, together accounting for about 55% of the overall telecom equipment market.
  • The RAN market surprised on the upside and performed better than expected in 2019, propelled by 5G RAN growth that continued to accelerate throughout the year at a torrid pace.
  • The worldwide Optical Transport market continued to expand for a fifth consecutive year, recording the highest growth rate in nearly a decade. Helping to drive this acceleration is robust growth for WDM.
  • Stable demand for PON equipment was not enough to offset declining investments in Cable and DSL, pushing the overall Broadband Access Market to a fourth consecutive year of declining revenues.
  • The efforts by the U.S. government to curb Huawei’s rise has so far had mixed results – we estimate Huawei’s overall telecom equipment share continued to improve in 2019, but the pace of the 2019 share growth was weaker than its average 2014-2019 share growth.
  • ZTE’s revenue share improved by about 2 percentage points in 2019, reflecting a robust recovery since the U.S. ban during 1H18.


https://www.delloro.com/

Sunday, February 23, 2020

Dell'Oro: CBRS RAN investments to surpass $1.5B

The overall CBRS market – LTE plus 5G NR – is expected to grow at a rapid pace between 2019 and 2024 with cumulative RAN investments projected to surpass $1.5 billion, according to the latest Dell’Oro Group CBRS RAN 5-year forecast report.

Other highlights from the CBRS 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • CBRS capex is not projected to have a significant impact on the WLAN capex.
  • CBRS investments are projected to account for a mid-single digit share of the overall North America RAN market.
  • Activity is anticipated to accelerate rapidly during the forecast period. 5G NR is expected to drive the lion share of the service provider CBRS capex in the outer part of the forecast period while LTE will likely dominate the technology mix for FWA, IoT, and Enterprise deployments through the forecast period


https://www.delloro.com/cbrs-ran-market-investments-to-surpass-1-5-b/

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Dell'Oro: Service Provider router market to grow at modest pace

Worldwide sales of Service Provider Routers is projected to exceed $75 billion over the five years from 2020 to 2024, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. The delivery and adoption of 5G and cloud services are expected to drive investments in IP networks over the forecast horizon.

“We expect the overall SP Router market to grow at modest, low single-digit rates over the next five years, but there are network use cases such as mobile backhaul and backbone transport that will surge due to the uptake of 5G and cloud services, respectively,” said Shin Umeda, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Vendors with the appropriate hardware and software solutions will benefit from the growth opportunities, but geographic presence will also play a big part in a company’s success,” added Umeda.

Additional highlights from the Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch Five Year Forecast:

  • The Asia-Pacific region, led by China, is expected to produce the highest growth over the next five years.
  • Revenue from 100 and 400 Gigabit Ethernet technologies is projected to account for almost half of router revenue by 2024.

Sunday, February 2, 2020

Dell'Oro: Broadband access equipment sales may have peaked

Sales of cable broadband access equipment will decrease with a 2 percent CAGR from 2019 to 2024, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.  The virtualization of network infrastructure, which is already playing out in the cable market, will extend to other equipment areas, thereby reducing traditional hardware revenue.

Some highlights from the Broadband Access 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • Virtual CMTS/CCAP revenue will grow from $90 Million in 2019 to $418 Million worldwide in 2024, as cable operators move to these platforms to expand broadband capacity.
  • Mesh-capable routers and broadband CPE units will reach 30 Million units in 2020. 

“Global operators continue to invest in their broadband access networks, but are increasingly delivering more capacity with lower-cost, virtualized hardware,” said Jeff Heynen, Senior Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. Virtualization, coupled with subscriber saturation in some mature markets will result in gradually declining revenue for broadband access equipment globally,” added Heynen.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Dell'Oro: 5G backhaul transport equipment sales to hit $3B by 2024

5G mobile backhaul transport equipment revenue will reach $3 billion by 2024. Demand for 5G backhaul is expected to drive multiple years of growth for the total mobile backhaul transport market for the next few years, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

“We anticipate the Mobile Backhaul Transport market to return to a period of growth as operators roll out 5G,” said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Hence, we are predicting that demand for backhaul equipment will grow at an average annual rate of four percent for the next four years, surpassing $5 billion annually. We suspect this demand will mostly further the sales of fiber backhaul equipment initially, but in the long term, there will be a growing share of new deployments using wireless backhaul,” Yu added.

Highlights from the Microwave Transmission & Mobile Backhaul 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • Over 50 percent of Mobile Backhaul Transport revenue and over 35 percent of Microwave Transmission revenue will be from equipment deployed in 5G networks by 2024.
  • 5G is also expected to drive the use of transport systems to increase the span between mobile radios and baseband units. As such, we forecast a strong adoption of Mobile Fronthaul during the forecast period.


https://www.delloro.com/news/5g-mobile-backhaul-transport-equipment-revenue-will-reach-3-billion-by-2024/

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

Dell’Oro: Optical Transport Market 5-Yr Forecast

Coherent port shipments on DWDM systems are forecast to reach 1.3 million by 2024, according to a recent report from Dell'Oro Group. A major share of these port shipments will operate at 400 Gbps.

Additional highlights from the Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report:

  • Total Optical Transport market consisting of Multiservice Multiplexers and WDM systems are forecast to reach nearly $18 billion by 2024.
  • Deployment of WDM systems in metro applications is projected to drive over half of the WDM market over the next five years. 

“We are projecting coherent port shipments on DWDM systems to grow at an 18 percent CAGR,” said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Further igniting this market will be all the new, higher baud rate coherent line cards entering the market this year that will set the path for many more years of growth. On a capacity shipment basis, we think the highest share of coherent line cards will be operating at 400 Gbps, a wavelength speed that will have the perfect balance of capacity, performance, and price in both metro and long haul networks,” continued Yu.

Thursday, December 5, 2019

Dell'Oro: Service Provider Router market dips 3% in 3Q 2019

The worldwide Service Provider Router market declined 3 percent year-over-year in 3Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

In the Asia-Pacific region, a sharp drop in sales to India more than offset growth in other countries.

“Service Provider Router demand continues to lack a strong set of drivers, and other than the China market, 5G RAN deployments are not yet driving significant investments in mobile backhaul and transport networks,” said Shin Umeda, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Routers supporting 400 Gbps interfaces are just becoming available, but the material impact to the market isn’t likely until 2021” added Umeda.

Additional highlights from the 3Q 2019 Router & Carrier Ethernet Switch Quarterly Report:

  • Cisco was the top-ranked Service Provider Router vendor, followed in order by Huawei, Nokia, and Juniper.
  • Service Provider Router rankings by region show Cisco with the top spot in North America. Nokia leads Europe, Middle East, and Africa region, and Huawei ranked highest in the Asia-Pacific region.
http://www.delloro.com

Dell'Oro: Mobile Core market jumps 14% in 3Q19

Mobile Core Network market revenue increased 14 percent year-over-year in the trailing four-quarter period ending in 3Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. Ericsson and Huawei were the top two vendors in that period.

“Four dominant themes arise from the Mobile Core Network report,” according to David Bolan, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “First, the Mobile Core Network market is growing as already noted. Second, Ericsson and Huawei are the clear market leaders, with Nokia holding a strong third-place rank, with ZTE and Cisco rounding out the top five manufacturers. Third, the Asia Pacific region with its large population centers remains the number one market in revenue despite its lower average selling prices. Fourth, 5G is real and happening,” Bolan stated.

“With over 50 service providers offering 5G service with the 5G NSA architecture, we expect 5G SA in 2020 with the 5G Core. There have been many press releases about milestone achievements with 5G SA recently, as tests in the labs and the field verify the performance of the 5G SA architecture with the 5G Core. This demonstrates that the market is on target to launch 5G SA with 5G Core in 2020,” Bolan continued.

The new Mobile Core Network report from Dell’Oro Group includes Wireless Packet Core, IMS Core, Policy, and Subscriber Management. It provides a comprehensive view of the wireless core market by revenue, volume, vendor, and region.

https://www.delloro.com/

Sunday, November 24, 2019

Dell'Oro: Stable demand for optical transport equipment in Q3

There was stable demand for optical transport equipment in 3Q 2019 as WDM revenue grew 4 percent year-over-year in the quarter, according to Dell’Oro Group.

“Demand for network capacity has not shown any signs of abating,” said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “In the third quarter of 2019, the amount of capacity shipped on WDM equipment grew above 30 percent year-over-year, driving the WDM market up 4 percent. Once again, disaggregated WDM systems shined the brightest, continuing to grow year-over-year for a sixteenth consecutive quarter. In 3Q 2019, it grew 28 percent, reaching an annualized revenue of $1.4 billion,” added Yu.

Additional highlights from the 3Q 2019 Optical Transport Quarterly Report:

  • The only region reported to have declined in the quarter was the Asia Pacific.
  • The manufacturers with the highest WDM market share gains were Ciena and Huawei.
  • The market is shifting rapidly towards 200+ Gbps wavelengths, initiating a slowdown in demand for 100 Gbps wavelengths.

https://www.delloro.com/news/stable-demand-for-optical-transport-equipment-in-3q-2019/

Thursday, September 5, 2019

Dell'Oro: DWDM systems revenue grew 8% Y/Y in 1H19

The market for DWDM systems significantly grew year-over-year (Y/Y) in the first half of 2019, according to Dell'Oro Group, in part because the comparative period, 1H 2018, includes much lower sales into China caused by the US ban on ZTE.



Some highlights:

  • In 1H 2019, Ciena held nearly 30 percent share of the optical DWDM market outside of China due to the company’s dominance in North America and growing share in international markets. 
  • Ciena’s revenue grew over 20 percent Y/Y. 
  • During this period, Huawei held the second-highest share outside of China even though the company’s market share declined slightly from both full-year 2018 and 1H 2018. 
  • Nokia continued to hold the third-highest share outside of China with revenue growth in the period exceeding the market average percentage growth of 5 percent.


https://www.delloro.com/optical-transport-2q19-report-dwdm-systems-market-grew-8-percent-y-y-in-1h-2019/

Wednesday, September 4, 2019

Dell'Oro: 25 Gbps Ethernet adapter gain share

Shipments of Ethernet controllers and adapters marked the first sequential growth year-over-year (Y/Y) in 2Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group. The 25 Gbps continues to gain share in the Cloud and Enterprise markets.

“Shipments of 10 Gbps controllers and adapters were stronger than expected with demand from general enterprises and lower-tier Cloud service providers. Meanwhile, 25 Gbps continues to gain momentum across key vendors in the high-end Enterprise market,” said Baron Fung, Director, at Dell’Oro Group. “Among the major Cloud service providers, which generally deploy 25, 40, and 50 Gbps ports, growth was mixed, as select companies are still undergoing server capacity digestion. Thus, we continue to anticipate great volatility in this sector for these higher-speed ports.”

Additional highlights from the Controller and Adapter 2Q 2019 quarterly report include:

  • Total controller and adapter port shipments increased 3 percent quarter-over-quarter (Q/Q) in 2Q 2019.
  • Average sell price per port increased 6 percent Q/Q, which contributed to higher sequential revenue growth.
  • Amazon still commands more than 90 percent share of the Smart NIC market by ports shipped, although Broadcom and Mellanox gained share.

Tuesday, September 3, 2019

Dell'Oro: WiFi 6 Adoption Boosts Sales of Aruba, Extreme, and Huawei

Mixed results characterized the 2Q 2019 Wireless LAN market, according to a recently published report by Dell’Oro Group that questions whether 2Q19 is the pause before the storm.

“Overall Wireless LAN market sales were soft, but not unusual compared to prior years. However, what caught our eye was the slowdown in overall unit shipments,” said Tam Dell’Oro, Founder and CEO at Dell’Oro Group. “The slowdown came from midrange and high-end across many manufacturers. In contrast, sales were robust growing well into the double-digits Y/Y at the lower-end price sensitive segment. WiFi 6 is picking up momentum as several additional vendors began shipping products during the quarter such as Cisco, Extreme Networks, and Fortinet. Select vendors with WiFi 6 already shipping enjoyed a surge in sales such as Aruba Networks, and Huawei,” added Dell’Oro.

Additional highlights from the Wireless LAN 2Q 2019 Quarterly Report:

  • Sales within China outpaced all other regions of the world.
  • Sales to the lower-Education vertical industry bounced back after declining for several quarters, while notable strength was observed in the government and manufacturing sectors.
  • NBASE-T ports rose sharply Q/Q, a trend we forecast to continue.


https://www.delloro.com/news/mixed-results-characterized-2q-2019-wireless-lan-market-a-pause-before-the-storm/

Monday, September 2, 2019

Dell'Oro: Worldwide telecom equipment market up 6%

The worldwide telecom equipment market grew 6 percent year-over-year (Y/Y) in the past twelve months, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

The majority of growth was driven by Mobile RAN and Optical Transport sales. Equipment manufacturer revenue in these two technology areas grew 10 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

The telecom equipment market shifted into a growth phase in 3Q 2018 after three years of decline. As a result, the market’s growth for the trailing four-quarter period ending 2Q 2019 was up significantly from a bottom reached in 2017. Most of the leading vendors gained revenue during this period with the highest percentage increases obtained by Samsung, ZTE, and Ciena.

Although Huawei was placed on the U.S. Entity List in late May, restricting its purchase of U.S. components without a license, the company seems to have avoided any negative impact on sales of telecom equipment. For the trailing four-quarter period (3Q18 through 2Q19), Huawei held the highest share of the telecom equipment market at 28 percent.

Nokia captured the second-highest share in the period due to its strong position in each of the seven technology segments included in the Telecom Equipment Market report. Nokia was a top 4 vendor in each product category.

Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Dell'Oro: Worldwide VoLTE revenues up 16% in 2Q 2019

The worldwide Voice-over-LTE (VoLTE) infrastructure market appears the tipping point of preparing 5G networks for voice with VoLTE is upon us as indicated by the growth rate we saw in 2Q 2019,” said Dave Bolan, senior analyst at Dell’Oro Group.

“Licenses shipped to service providers in China and India accounted for most of the 62 percent growth in the Asia Pacific region. With 5G services expected to launch in October 2019, Chinese service providers are aggressively trying to migrate their 1.2 B LTE subscribers to VoLTE. Currently only about half are using VoLTE,” continued Bolan.

“In addition, the market in India is seeing a rapid shift to VoLTE services. For example, service provider Reliance Jio, had over 331 M VoLTE subscribers with a 54 percent Y/Y growth rate,” Bolan added.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2019 Carrier IP Telephony report include:

  • The top three ranking VoLTE vendors were Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson
  • Circuit-switched core market revenues were down 21 percent Y/Y
  • The IMS Core market revenues were up 13 percent Y/Y
  • The Carrier IP Telephony market was up 5 percent Y/Y


Tuesday, August 27, 2019

Dell'Oro: Evolved Packet Core sales up 13% yoy

Evolved Packet Core (EPC) revenues were up 13 percent year-over-year (Y/Y) in 2Q 2019, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.  5G Core deployments are expected in 2020.

“EPC revenues grew for a fourth consecutive quarter at double-digit percentages, growing 13 percent Y/Y in 2Q 2019,” said Dave Bolan, Senior Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “You can hardly go a day now without a 5G launch being announced somewhere in the world. That means all of those service providers had to upgrade their EPC to carry 5G traffic,” continued Bolan.

“As we move into 2020, service providers will start to expand their 5G coverage by adding 5G standalone base stations that will require the 5G Core.  We expect to see some 5G Core revenues as early as the first quarter. But the revenues will be small and not significant as service providers build out small markets to learn how to use the 5G Core before rolling out nationwide,” added Bolan.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2019 Wireless Packet Core quarterly report include:

  • The top three EPC vendor rankings for the quarter were Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia.
  • The Asia Pacific region had the highest EPC Y/Y revenue growth rate for the quarter accounting for over 40 percent of the revenue.
  • The trend towards more network function virtualization (NFV) continued accounting for 39 percent of the EPC revenue in the quarter.

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Dell'Oro: Microwave transmission market dips 4% in 1H19

The Microwave Transmission market declined 4 percent year-over-year (Y/Y) in first half 2019 due to reduced demand in India, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

“Although we expected the Microwave Transmission equipment market to contract this year, we were surprised by the magnitude of decline in India,” stated Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “We estimate microwave revenue in India declined an astounding 70 percent Y/Y in the first half of 2019. As a result of this weaker environment in India, a critical country for microwave sales, the worldwide Microwave Transmission equipment market contracted 4 percent. On a brighter note, if we look at the world market excluding India, the Microwave Transmission market grew at a very healthy rate of 10 percent in the same period,” continued Yu.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2019 Microwave Transmission Quarter Report:

  • E/V Band microwave system revenue grew 9 percent Y/Y in the first half of 2019.
  • In 2Q 2019, the top three manufacturers measured by worldwide Microwave Transmission revenue were Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia.
  • Huawei was placed on a U.S. Entity List, restricting U.S. companies from selling certain components to Huawei and its subsidiaries, in May 2019. Huawei revenue was not impacted by this restriction in 2Q 2019. In the quarter, Huawei gained an additional 2 percentage points of market share compared to last year.

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Dell'Oro:Surging 5G deployments in APAC

Healthy LTE growth and surging 5G investments in the Asia Pacific region added fuel to the Radio Access Networks (RAN) market upswing that began in the second half of 2018, according to a new report from Dell'Oro Group.

“After several years of the Asia Pacific region being a drag on the worldwide RAN market, preliminary 2Q 2019 data points indicated positive trends extended into the second quarter, adding confidence that the tides are turning in the region,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President with the Dell’Oro Group. “In addition to healthy demand for low-band LTE solutions and easier year-over-year comparisons following the ZTE ban last year, surging 5G mid-band deployments in China and South Korea helped to drive the acceleration of the overall RAN market,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the 2Q 2019 Mobile RAN report:

  • The Asia Pacific region, including China, comprised more than 80 percent of worldwide RAN growth between 1H 2018 and 1H 2019.
  • 5G NR growth in the APAC region was 3x to 4x the size of the incremental LTE upside.
  • Samsung and ZTE recorded the largest overall RAN revenue share gains between 1H 2018 and 1H 2019 – with the two vendors collectively gaining five points of revenue share in the Asia Pacific region.


https://www.delloro.com/news/surging-5g-deployments-in-asia-pacific-fueled-the-worldwide-ran-market/

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