Showing posts with label Crehan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crehan. Show all posts

Monday, July 13, 2015

Crehan: Data Center Switch Market Ready for 100 GbE Upgrade

Switches capable of 100 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) will soon experience a very strong increase in adoption, according to Crehan Research's most recent Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report.

The firm is forecasting that data center switch port shipments in this market segment will grow from a current annual run-rate of tens of thousands to handily exceed ten million by 2019. The report points to compelling pricing as a key enabler of the strong uptake, with average 100GbE selling prices falling by approximately 50% year-over-year for a number of consecutive years.

"We expect that 100GbE-capable data center switching will soon see a dramatic increase as a result of the compelling economics and diverse use-cases that the upcoming next-gen products enable," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "Price premiums over prior technologies should be relatively small, and these switches can be deployed from the core of the data center network all the way down to the server access layer, given their flexible speed configurations via breakout cables," he said.

The report further predicts that the keen interest in this next-generation 100GbE-capable data center switching technology from the hyper-scale cloud segment will be a major driver of the initial strong uptake. The deployment of a new technology from large hyper-scale customers such as Google and Microsoft can result in its dramatic growth. This was recently the case with 40GbE server-access deployments and was highlighted in a prior Crehan Research data center networking report.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Monday, June 1, 2015

Crehan: High-Speed Server Networking Adoption Accelerates

Combined 10 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) and 40GbE shipments have increased more than 30% year-over-year to account for almost 30% of total 1Q15 Ethernet server-class adapter and LOM shipments, according to new reports from Crehan Research Inc. s. Over the same time period, 16 Gigabit per second (Gbps) Fibre Channel Host Bus Adapter (HBA) shipments have seen a two-and-a-half fold increase to comprise 20% of total Fibre Channel shipments. These higher server networking speeds are now at inflection points in terms of adoption.

"Customers are more-rapidly upgrading their server networking capabilities to faster speeds to take advantage of the higher bandwidth capabilities of the most recent server platforms," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "Currently, this is more evident in the hyper-scale, telco and high-performance computing segments, and we expect it to become evident in the general enterprise environment by the second half of this year," he added. "Furthermore, we expect this migration to higher-bandwidth servers to in turn drive more widespread deployments of higher-bandwidth data center switches.”

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Crehan: Sales of Branded Data Center Switches Continue to Grow

Customer deployments of branded data center Ethernet switches grew ten percent in 2014, a slight increase over the 2013 growth rate, despite an increase in white box switch offerings, according to the most recent data center switch report from Crehan Research Inc.

 Crehan’s report further shows that branded Ethernet switch shipments in the high-speed top-of-rack, or fixed, segment – where white box switch offerings are most prevalent – increased by almost 40% in 2014 (see accompanying chart).

“Most of the white box and ODM-direct switch market volume is still driven by a few of the very large, hyper-scale cloud service providers, and its growth has remained largely a function of these few service providers building out their data center networks," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "Over the past few years, the branded data center switch vendors have really narrowed the gap on the perceived advantages of white box switches," he said. “Although it varies by vendor, this has included lowering prices significantly, incorporation of more merchant silicon, offering more programmability and SDN features, disaggregation of hardware and software, and bringing open compute and networking designs to market."

Some highlights from Crehan's report:

  • 40 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) data center switch shipments more than tripled, while revenues more than doubled.
  • 10GBASE-T data center switching rapidly expanded in 2014, exiting the year with an annual run rate of over two million ports.
  • Despite steep price declines in some of the individual data center Ethernet switch segments, overall market pricing remained relatively stable in 2014 due to greater adoption of higher-speed switches, which carry a price premium.
  • The Fibre Channel switch market returned to revenue growth in 2014, as higher average selling prices more than offset a slight annual shipment decline.


http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Crehan: Multiple Technologies Drive Stronger Server Networking Upgrade Cycle

The availability of multiple new data-center Ethernet speeds will lead to a much stronger server networking upgrade cycle than seen over the past decade, according to a new Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) Long-Range Forecast Report from Crehan Research.

The firm expects that the impending arrival of 25 gigabit Ethernet (GbE), 50GbE and 100GbE products, in combination with existing 10GbE and 40GbE products, will result in more than two-thirds of total networking ports migrating to high-speed Ethernet within three years (see accompanying figure).

“Over the past decade or so, the data center has seen many significant changes, and it is no longer a one-size-fits-all market,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Consequently, we are seeing solutions that are highly optimized for the needs of specific customer segments, whether it be a fully vertically integrated system for a converged enterprise network or a bare-bones disaggregated system for a massively scalable cloud service provider,” he said. “As a result, the market is currently looking for more targeted Ethernet networking solutions.”

The report predicts that the many various high-speed Ethernet options will coexist for some time, each benefitting from the demands of a specific market segment. For example:
  • 25GbE is expected to see a strong initial ramp from deployments by cloud titans such as Google and Microsoft, an area of the market where 10GbE server networking is currently prevalent. 
  • 10GbE should see its third, and biggest, adoption phase as the mainstream enterprise market upgrades its mostly 1GBASE-T server and server access infrastructure to 10GBASE-T.
  • 40GbE is starting to ramp significantly, benefitting from a current window of opportunity as the most attractively priced data center Ethernet speed from a bandwidth perspective. 

In both its 3Q14 Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) Long-Range Forecast and its 3Q14 Data Center Switch reports, Crehan Research highlighted the dramatic uptake in 40GbE data center adoption, noting that networking bandwidth demands were so strong in some market verticals that these customers could not wait to evaluate impending 25GbE and 50GbE options.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Crehan: A Surge in 40 Gigabit Data Center Networking Adoption

The adoption of 40 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) in data centers is significantly accelerating, according to recent and upcoming reports from Crehan Research.

Crehan’s latest server-class adapter and LAN-on-motherboard report shows that 40GbE speeds on these products is already approaching a quarter-million port annual run-rate in 3Q14, and on track to increase four-fold, reaching a million port annual run-rate by 4Q14.

The reports show that Mellanox currently accounts for the majority of 40GbE server adapter shipments, while Cisco is the share leader in 40GbE data center switch port shipments.

“We were very bullish in our outlook for 40GbE data center networking growth in 2014, but results in certain segments of this market are already exceeding our forecast," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "Data center networking traffic demands are so strong in some market verticals that these customers cannot wait to evaluate the upcoming 25GbE and 50GbE options. They need to go ahead and deploy speeds greater than 10GbE right now," he said. "Furthermore, 40GbE is currently benefiting from a window of opportunity where it is a viable server connection as well as a viable data center aggregation and core networking option."

With its prior data center switch report (2Q14), Crehan Research noted that low-priced switches had driven strong data center Ethernet growth. These lower prices are especially pronounced in 40GbE and are helping to drive the much stronger adoption of this technology.

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Monday, September 8, 2014

Crehan Research: Low-Priced Switches Drive Data Center Ethernet Growth

After a particularly weak first quarter, steep price declines helped propel the Ethernet data center switch market to new shipment highs in the second quarter of 2014, according to the most recent data center Ethernet switch report from Crehan Research Inc..

As shown in the accompanying figure, the growth was particularly pronounced in the high-speed Ethernet segment, which includes 10, 40 and 100 Gigabit Ethernet data center switches. In that segment, data center switch port shipments increased by one million ports during the single quarter alone. Cisco, which holds a strong leadership position in high-speed Ethernet, was responsible for much of the market growth, gaining share with its Nexus portfolio of data center switches.

“Besides typical seasonality, there were a number of factors that constrained the data center Ethernet switch market in 1Q14," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "These included pockets of supply constraints, and possibly some customer buying pause while recently-introduced 10 and 40 Gigabit Ethernet data center switches and line cards with much lower prices were evaluated. As these factors eased and we moved into the seasonally stronger second quarter, the data center Ethernet switch market rebounded strongly," he explained.

In its previous long-range forecast report, Crehan Research forecast a stronger migration to higher Ethernet speeds as a result of the arrival of significantly lower-priced data center switches. The firm further expects that this migration will also be aided by the arrival of Intel’s Grantley-based server platforms, where it expects 10 Gigabit Ethernet adapters to be a much more popular server networking.

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Crehan Research: Growth in Faster Data Center Switches

Strong growth in faster, more expensive Ethernet data center switches will offset steep price declines in each of these high-bandwidth segments, according to a recent Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report from Crehan Research Inc.

The firm forecasts that competition and other factors will lead to significantly lower per-port pricing on 10, 40 and 100 Gigabit Ethernet switches, spurring stronger adoption of these technologies and resulting in relatively stable overall Ethernet data center switch average selling prices.

“Despite the onslaught of data center traffic and unprecedented network demands, high-speed data center switches thus far have been too expensive to drive widespread adoption, but this is about to significantly change,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Aside from continual cost reductions and port-density improvements, price drops are being driven by factors such as increased competition in the data center switch market (including numerous recent entrants), low-priced white box and merchant operating system offerings, and the price negotiating power of some of the very large, hyper-scale public cloud vendors,” he said.

Crehan’s report forecasts that as a result of market migration to higher speed switches, Ethernet data center switch revenues will reach approximately $14 billion by 2018, with revenue growth slightly exceeding shipment growth. More specifically, the firm forecasts strong upcoming adoption of 10 Gigabit Ethernet for data center server access, and 40 and 100 Gigabit Ethernet for data center uplink, aggregation and core deployments.

With its most recent Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) Long-Range Forecast Report, Crehan predicted that 10 Gigabit Ethernet will finally eclipse one Gigabit Ethernet by 2016 to become a majority of total shipments, closely following the mass adoption of Grantley-based servers.

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Monday, June 30, 2014

Crehan Research: Intel's Grantley Platform to Drive Server Networking

A new report from Crehan Research forecasts that 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) will finally eclipse one Gigabit Ethernet (1GbE) by 2016 to become a majority of total shipments, which closely follows the mass adoption of servers based on Grantley, Intel’s latest micro-architecture platform.

“Although Romley and Nehalem, Intel's prior two server platforms with new processor micro-architectures, were capable of driving enough bandwidth to warrant the incorporation of 10GbE networking, many supporting factors to push broader 10GbE adoption were not yet in place,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “With the impending arrival of Grantley, these supporting factors – including broad market portfolios of lower-priced adapters and data center server-access switches, in addition to more compelling 10GBASE-T offerings – are falling into place to facilitate strong growth in the 10GbE server attach rate,” he said.

In its 4Q12 report, published in early 2013, Crehan Research identified three major stages of mainstream 10GbE server networking adoption, the first centering around blade servers and converged networking, the second around public cloud and hyper-scale data centers and the third around enterprise rack and tower servers. These three major stages are also correlated with the broad adoption of Intel’s micro-architecture server platform cycles, respectively, Nehalem, Romley and Grantley.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Monday, May 19, 2014

Crehan Research: 10 Gigabit Server Networking Market Surges

Following some recent softness, the 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) server networking market delivered impressive results in 1Q14, according to the latest server-class adapter & LOM/controller report from Crehan Research.The strong showing was even more noteworthy given that servers based on Intel's next-generation Grantley platform have not yet hit the market.

"New server micro-architecture platforms, such as Grantley, tend to drive a positive step-function in demand for higher networking speeds," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "The increased processor performance puts greater demands on the network in conjunction with driving a server-upgrade purchase cycle," he explained. "Such stellar results in the seasonally-soft first calendar quarter, even prior to the arrival of Grantley-based servers, are positive indicators for the market's future growth."

Besides the overall strong growth, the report points to other positive milestones in the server networking market during the quarter, including:

  • Record 10GbE shipments which surpassed a 10-million-port annual run rate
  • 10GBASE-T shipments exceeded a one-million-port annual run rate
  • One vendor – Intel – shipped over a million 10GbE ports during the quarter
  • 40GbE shipments surpassed a 50-thousand-port annual run rate

Last quarter, Crehan Research reported that 10GbE data center switch shipments surpassed those of 1GbE to become a majority of total data center switch shipments. Many of those ports are deployed as uplink, aggregation and core networking connections. Crehan Research now reports that this technology is starting to migrate to direct server access in much greater volumes.

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Thursday, March 13, 2014

Crehan Research: 10GbE Data Center Switches Surpass 1GbE

Robust 2013 year-end growth has propelled 10 gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) data center switch port shipments past those of gigabit Ethernet (1GbE) for the first time, according to a recent report from Crehan Research.

Since first product introductions in 2001, 10GbE data center switching has overcome numerous hurdles on the path to majority adoption. These have included:

  • Very low port-density switches, with accompanying prices prohibitive to volume data center deployments. 
  • High-priced optical pluggable modules accompanied by many different multi-source agreements and form-factors, with the market cycling through the 300pin, XENPAK, XPAK, XFP and X2 modules before finally settling at the current dominant SFP+ form-factor. 
  • Limited default or free 10GbE networking on volume rack servers to seed the market for a switch upgrade, similar to what happened with 1GbE. 
  • Slower-than-expected arrival of compelling 10GBASE-T solutions. 
  • Two major recessions in the aftermath of the housing and dot-com bubbles. 

“When I first saw 10 gigabit Ethernet switches arrive on the market back in 2001, I never thought that we would be well into the next decade before these products would comprise a majority of data center Ethernet port shipments,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Despite a network traffic growth curve that turned out to be way above most expectations, this technology was encumbered by numerous obstacles on its way to becoming a majority of data center connections,” he added.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Monday, January 27, 2014

Crehan: Data Center Switching Market Hits New Phase

2014 should be a year of major transition for Infiniband, Fibre Channel and Ethernet data center switch technologies, according to Crehan Research.

Crehan's most recently published Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report, predicts that each technology will surpass its incumbent, becoming the majority of its respective segment on an annual basis:

  • In Infiniband, 56Gbps FDR will overtake 40Gbps QDR to comprise more than 50% of shipments.
  • In Fibre Channel, 16Gbps will exceed 8Gbps to comprise more than 50% of shipments.
  • In Ethernet, 10 Gigabit will outstrip 1 Gigabit to comprise more than 50% of shipments.

“10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) is finally on the verge of becoming the most popular data center switch port connection, after a long and sometimes rocky adoption curve,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “And as 40GbE starts to ramp, we are still forecasting its adoption curve to look much better than that of 10GbE. This is already evidenced by the fact that recent data center switch introductions are really pushing the envelope on 40GbE port densities and economics,” he added.

In its year-ago Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report (January 2013), Crehan illustrated that 40GbE would comprise close to one-third of all data center switch shipments by 2017, and this latest forecast maintains the same outlook. In Fibre Channel, the report further shows that despite a more gradual ramp than that seen for 8Gbps, 16Gbps Fibre Channel adoption is picking up steam. Crehan predicts that it will become the majority Fibre Channel switch technology by 2014.

"In the Infiniband switch market, 56Gbps FDR is well on its way to becoming the next de facto high-speed interconnect, setting the foundation for upgrades to the forthcoming 100Gbps EDR products."

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Crehan: Modular Ethernet Switches Propel Data Center Growth

Strong shipment and revenue growth in the modular or chassis-based segment propelled the data center Ethernet switch market to new highs in 3Q13, according to a report from Crehan Research. The report shows that after some past underperformance compared to other major data center Ethernet switch segments, modular data center switches posted a second consecutive quarter of robust growth. According to the report, Cisco continues to hold a strong market share leadership position in this segment on the strength of its current flagship modular data center Ethernet switch, the Nexus 7000.

"A strong upgrade cycle in server access Ethernet switches has driven demand for modular Ethernet switches in data-center network aggregation and core deployments,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Furthermore, a recent flurry of exciting new product introductions with attractive throughput, pricing and port densities in conjunction with software-defined feature sets has reinvigorated interest in this segment," he said. "These modular data center product introductions include Arista’s 7300X and 7500E, Cisco’s Nexus 7700 and 9500, HP’s FlexFabric 11900 and 12900 and Juniper’s EX9200 core switch."

With its mid-year long-range data center switch forecast, Crehan predicted that these types of next-gen product introductions would start to drive data center networking beyond the current 10 gigabit era.

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Crehan: 10-Gigabit Ethernet Returns to Strong Growth

The market for 10-Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) has returned to strong growth, posting double-digit increases in both revenues and shipments for the second quarter of 2013, according to the recently published Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) Report from Crehan Research.

The report shows that the 10GbE growth was broad-based, with both the adapter card and LOM/controller segments posting increases.

"The demand for high-speed server networking rebounded strongly, with both enterprise and public cloud/web-scale data center customers upgrading existing networks as well as building out new networks to handle increased traffic demands and application workloads," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “The strong rebound propelled the 10GbE market to new highs,” he added.

In parallel with the strong 10GbE growth seen in the server-class adapter and LOM market, Crehan anticipates that the data center switch market will also post robust results on the strength of record 10GbE deployments.

"The recent introduction of numerous software-defined 40GbE- and 100GbE-capable data center switches for core and aggregation deployments seems to be giving customers more comfort in deploying 10GbE server access switches," he said.

http://www.crehanresearch.com

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Crehan: Server-Class I/O Networking Revenues to Reach $2.5 Billion

Crehan Research is forecasting that revenues for server-class adapter & LAN-on-motherboard solutions hitting $2.5 billion by 2017.

The report forecasts that shipment growth in combination with an easing of average selling price declines will drive the revenue expansion. The report also predicts growth in Ethernet (including Fibre Channel over Ethernet) and Infiniband, offsetting a gradual decline in Fibre Channel.

"The onslaught of traffic demands on data center networking is not only driving a continual increase in server-class adapter and LOM shipments, but it is also driving the need for higher-speed connections across all major protocols, including Ethernet, Fibre Channel and Infiniband," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.

 "This upgrade to higher-speed connections like 10 Gigabit Ethernet, 16Gbps Fibre Channel and FDR Infiniband  –  all of which command a price premium while offering a bandwidth discount  –  helps offset steeper price declines," he added.

The report also forecasts a return to stronger growth in the 10 Gigabit Ethernet Adapter and LOM market segment, after some softness.  The recent arrival of many new 40GbE- and 100GbE-capable data center switches for core and aggregation deployments will now give customers more comfort in upgrading the server access layer to 10GbE.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Crehan: Data Center Switching Sales to Soar

The market for 40GbE and 100GbE data center switching equipment will grow at a compound annual growth rate of more than 100% over the next five years, with these two technologies comprising the majority of data switching revenues by 2017, according to a new report from Crehan Research.

The report  predicts that 40GbE adoption will initially exceed that of 100GbE, due to factors such as more attractive pricing, broader product offerings, higher port densities and fewer
competing port-interface types. However, 100GbE will have a significant impact in the outer forecast years.

The report also forecasts strong growth for Fibre Channel-over-Ethernet (FCoE) switches as well, an area that has also seen a number of new product introductions and announcements recently, focused on a converged LAN and SAN data-center networking infrastructure.

“Recently-launched data center switches, such as Arista’s 7500E, Brocade’s VDX 8770, Cisco’s Nexus 6004, HP Networking’s FlexFabric 12900 and 11900, Huawei’s CloudEngine 12800, Juniper’s EX9200, and Mellanox’s Virtual Modular Switch, in conjunction with upcoming introductions from new and existing vendors, should drive strong 40GbE and 100GbE revenue growth,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Many of these switches are not only 40GbE and 100GbE capable, but also incorporate features enabling more openness, programmability and automation to help customers build software defined data-center network fabrics,” Crehan added.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Crehan: Blade Server Interconnects Drive Fibre Channel-over-Ethernet Market

The Fibre Channel-over-Ethernet (FCoE) segment posted greater than 20% shipment growth in 1Q13 over the year-ago quarter, according to a new report from Crehan Research.  Blade server interconnects, which account for less than a fifth of the total market, continue to drive FCoE growth and now comprise more than half of all FCoE port shipments.

In contrast, the Fibre Channel switch market experienced a decline in 1Q13, with shipments falling 7% both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.  The report cites weakness at some of the large storage OEMs, in addition to a pause in purchasing by Cisco's customers in anticipation of its recently announced MDS 9700 platform, as contributors to the quarter's soft results.

"Given the importance of space, cable, power and component savings within blade servers and their chassis enclosures, and the fact that FCoE and convergence offer improvements across all these vectors, it's not surprising that FCoE adoption has been strongest in the blade server segment of the market," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.  "This growth is further bolstered by the fact that some parts of the FCoE solution are being offered at no additional price premium," he said.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/


Monday, May 20, 2013

Crehan: Strong 10-Gigabit Ethernet Growth Ahead

Crehan Research is predicting strong growth for the 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) market.  Some factors include:

  • 10GbE inventory reductions at major server OEMs, clearing the way for additional sales
  • Price reductions, stimulating end-user 10GbE demand
  • Broader product offerings including additional 10GBASE-T Modular LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) and quad-port 10GbE  (despite the lack of a full set of offerings from all the major OEMs, 1Q13 10GBASE-T Adapter and LOM shipments jumped 60% to approach a one-million port annual run rate)
  • The launch of Intel-based Ivy Bridge server platforms in the latter half of 2013, bringing an opportunity and value proposition for users to upgrade their servers and incorporate 10GbE networking. 

"Reductions in 10GbE server adapter inventories and prices, broader product offerings and the launch of the new Ivy Bridge server platforms should drive increased 10GbE server networking growth," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.  "This could be further accentuated by the backdrop of an expected improvement in the IT spending environment, more of which seems to be shifting toward the data center," Crehan added.

The research is published in a newly-released 1Q13 Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) Report.

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Monday, March 11, 2013

Crehan: Data Center Ethernet Switch Market Hits $8 Billion Run-Rate

Data center Ethernet switch revenues exceeded $2 billion in calendar 4Q12, putting this market on an $8 billion annual run-rate, according to a new report from Crehan Research.

The report shows that calendar 2012 revenue growth far exceeded that of 2011, helped by a leveling out in the decline of Chassis/Modular Ethernet switch shipments, coupled with increasing adoption of 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) switches.

“Given that data center Ethernet chassis or modular switches command a considerable price premium over the market average, mix shifts in this segment can have a significant market impact,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Aided by stabilization in the mix of this data center Ethernet switch category, total market average selling prices fell only a little in 2012,” he added.

Two other highlights from the report:

  • Data center Ethernet Fixed/Top-of-Rack switches continue to reach record levels, as this form-factor not only sees increasing server access deployment, but also data center aggregation deployments.
  • In line with the overall market, Fibre Channel Switches also enjoyed revenue growth in 4Q12 and 2012, as higher pricing offset port-shipment declines. 

http://www.crehanresearch.com

Monday, January 28, 2013

Crehan Research: Five-Fold Increase in Server Networking Bandwidth by 2017


Server-class networking bandwidth will see a five-fold increase by 2017, exceeding 900 terabits in that year as data centers continue to increase network capacity to keep up with traffic demand, according to Crehan Research’s latest Server-class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) Long-Range  Forecast Report.

The bandwidth increase is enabled by technology upgrades from 1 Gbps Ethernet (GbE) to 10Gbps Ethernet (10GbE), from 8Gbps Fibre Channel to 16Gbps Fibre Channel, and from QDR Infiniband to FDR Infiniband.

The transition to 10GbE is expected to account for more than 60 percent of the total bandwidth by 2014  – the year  in which  Crehan Research forecasts that 10GbE server-class adapter and LOM shipments should overtake GbE.  

"Even without a very high attach rate of 10GbE  LOMs  on volume enterprise rack servers due to the current high 10GbE Modular LOM end-customer price premiums, there is enough volume on alternative server platforms such as Cloud, Blade and High-end servers to drive the 10GbE transition within a couple of years,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.   “Furthermore, with the default inclusion of a four-port GbE Modular LOM on many Romley-based volume enterprise servers, the native Ethernet networking bandwidth (and number of ports) on these servers has been doubled at no additional price to customers," Crehan added. As a result, the Crehan report shows GbE has continued to grow while 10GbE has grown much more rapidly, leading to very healthy combined Ethernet port growth.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Thursday, January 24, 2013

Crehan Research: Data Center Switch Market Approaches $16B by 2017


The Data Center Switch market will approach $16 billion by 2017, according to Crehan Research, as Ethernet, including Fibre Channel-over-Ethernet, becomes an ever-increasing portion of the overall market. The recently published Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report, anticipates very strong growth for both 10GBASE-T switches and 40 Gigabit Ethernet-capable switches (40GbE).

Some other highlights from the report:


  • The report predicts robust increases for 100 Gigabit Ethernet Switches (100GbE), but indicates that while 100GbE will likely be an important long-term data center switch technology, prices and port densities have a way to go before it achieves a meaningful market impact.
  • Infiniband switches will continue growing at a much faster pace than the overall data center switch market. Infiniband recently enjoyed one of the fastest speed transitions seen in data center networking, with FDR (56Gbps) comprising a majority of ports about one year after initial shipments.
  • The Fibre Channel switch market is reaching a plateau. However, shipment declines are expected to be gradual as Fibre Channel remains a key datacenter storage networking technology.

“Given the mid-2012 step-function increase in 10GBASE-T server adapter and LAN-on-Motherboard shipments and subsequent introduction of numerous attractively-priced 10GBASE-T data center switches, we expect exponential growth in 10GBASE-T switch port shipments,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.

“We believe the strong ramp in 40GbE will be driven by the following factors. First, the upgrade to 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) switches in the server access layer should drive 40GbE deployments in the uplink, aggregation and core sectors of data center networks. Second, 40GbE, with its QSFP interface, also can be used as four individual 10GbE links which not only provides very high 10GbE switch port density but also gives uplink/downlink and oversubscription/wire-speed flexibility,” added Crehan.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/