Showing posts with label Crehan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Crehan. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 23, 2019

Crehan: Top 3 clouds account for majority of whitebox Ethernet switch deployments

Three of the largest hyperscale cloud service providers account for most of the whitebox-class data center Ethernet switch shipments, according to recent reports from Crehan Research Inc.

Amazon, Google and Facebook combined to exceed two-thirds of total 2018 annual volumes.

Whitebox-class data center Ethernet switch shipments as a whole had a robust annual increase, to exceed 20% of the total annual volumes; but without Amazon, Google and Facebook, whitebox-class switching accounted for 7%.

“Although there seems to be a fair amount of tire-kicking, pilot projects and evaluations of whitebox-class data center switching, its overall adoption outside of three of the largest hyperscale cloud service providers has, so far, remained a relatively modest portion of overall data center switching,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Furthermore, the branded Ethernet switch vendors now offer customers what once was generally attainable only from whitebox switch deployments, including disaggregated open networking, programmability and significant price reductions.”

The boundary between branded and whitebox-class data center switching continues to blur, as evidenced by the following examples:

  • The hyperscale internet service provider Tencent is deploying Cisco’s merchant silicon-based Nexus 34180YC Ethernet switch with the SONiC operating system in its data centers.
  • Arista has jointly developed its most recent data center switch (the 7368X4) with Facebook which had historically worked with whitebox-class vendors such as Accton/Edgecore and Celestica, where the data center switch design was solely by Facebook.
  • Branded Ethernet switch vendors such as Dell EMC, Juniper and Mellanox offer disaggregated hardware/software solutions to deliver more flexibility and openness to data center networking customers.

Crehan’s reports further indicate that, while the overall market adoption of whitebox-class data center switching is in the twenty percent range it is higher than this for the newer and faster networking speeds. This is largely because Amazon, Google and Facebook tend to be earlier adopters of these newer and faster speeds. For example, almost all of the early volume in 400GbE data center switching is driven by whitebox-class switches, due to Google’s dominance of these early deployments. “We expect that, similar to other Ethernet speeds, the portion of whitebox-class data center switch volumes will decline as a broader customer base starts to deploy 400GbE switches,” Crehan said.

http://www.crehanresearch.com

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Crehan: 100GbE Data Center Switch Shipments passed 40GbE in '18

Customer adoption of 100 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) and 25GbE data center switches increased significantly in 2018, with shipments of each technology more than doubling year-over-year, according to the latest report from Crehan Research Inc.

This increase drove the overall data center Ethernet switch market to its strongest shipment growth since 2015 as well as to record revenue results. Furthermore, as shown in the accompanying figure, annual 100GbE data center switch port shipments surpassed those of 40GbE, a transition that has occurred approximately just three years after initial high-density 100GbE switch silicon-based systems started production shipments.

“10GbE and 40GbE data center switch shipments each declined in 2018, while 25GbE and 100GbE continued to grow significantly, signaling that we are now solidly in the 100/25GbE era,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Because of its compelling
value propositions, this modern data center architecture is now being widely deployed across public, private, and hybrid cloud data centers to handle a broad and diverse set of application workloads.”

Other noteworthy results from Crehan’s data center switch report include:

  • Overall market average selling prices were (once again) very stable in 2018. In fact, over the past four years, overall data center Ethernet switch market average selling prices have fallen by less than five percent in total.
  • Cisco accounted for about half of total branded data center Ethernet switch revenues in 2018, driven by very strong customer adoption of its Nexus 9000 series 100GbE and 25GbE data center
  • switching products.
  • Arista gained the most data center Ethernet switch revenue and shipment share in 2018, picking up three share points in both of those areas.
  • Despite a significant slowdown in 4Q18, both Huawei and H3C also had annual data center Ethernet switch share gains in 2018.
  • Although total 10GbE data center switch shipments declined in 2018, 10GBASE-T shipments continued to grow, even with weakness in this segment in the latter half of the year.
  • “The wide deployment of 100GbE switching, with an annualized port shipment run-rate now approaching the tens of millions, sets a very solid foundation for the upcoming 400GbE ramp likely starting in the second half of this year," Crehan said. 

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Crehan: Adoption of High-Speed Ethernet server networking is accelerating

Deployments of high-speed Ethernet adapter and controller shipments are significantly increasing and posted almost 50 percent year-over-year growth for the second quarter in a row, according to the most recent Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard
(LOM) Report from Crehan Research Inc.

The Crehan report finds that every high-speed Ethernet technology – 10GbE, 25GbE, 40GbE, 50GbE and 100GbE – individually posted year-over-year year growth in excess of 30 percent for the second calendar quarter of 2018, and all speeds except 50GbE posted record quarterly shipments.

“In addition to the resurgence of server shipment growth, as well as more networking per server, the network adapter and controller market is in the midst of numerous concurrent upgrades,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “For example, the hyper-scale cloud segment was a major driver of the 2Q18 exponential growth in 25GbE adapters, while the enterprise segment was a major driver of the continued strong growth in 10GbE. Meanwhile, the telco segment was a strong contributor to the quarter’s strength in both 40GbE and 100GbE.”

Other noteworthy results from Crehan’s Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) report
include:

  • Vendor-built 25GbE shipments almost tripled in 2Q18, approaching a three-million port annualized run-rate.
  • 40GbE continued to show surprisingly strong growth despite the recent arrival, and now material volumes, of 25GbE, 50GbE and 100GbE.
  • 10GbE remains the largest high-speed Ethernet growth contributor in absolute volume, comprising over half of all the 2Q18 shipment increase. Within 10GbE, 10GBASE-T saw the strongest growth rate, with an almost 80% year-over-year increase in shipments.
  • Intel remained the market share leader for 10GbE as well as for total high-speed Ethernet adapter and controller shipments, accounting for over 60% of total 2Q18 volumes. 
  • In network adapter and controller speeds above 10GbE, Mellanox accounted for more than 70% of ports shipped. This combined segment of 25GbE, 40GbE, 50GbE and 100GbE saw shipments more than double year-over-year in 2Q18.
“The strong increase in customer deployments of high-speed Ethernet adapters is putting enormous pressure on the switches connecting servers to the data center network, which is driving a need for higher capacity switches," Crehan said. "We expect to see strong adoption of higher capacity data center Ethernet switches to meet this swell of demand.”

www.crehanresearch.com

Thursday, March 15, 2018

Crehan: Branded Data Center Ethernet Switches Surged in 2017

Customer deployments of branded data center Ethernet switch bandwidth increased by more than fifty percent in 2017, according to the latest report from Crehan Research Inc.

The cost of a gigabit of bandwidth also saw its steepest decline in six years during 2017, according to the report, resulting in a significant increase in the average bandwidth per data center switch port connection: almost 17 gigabits in 2017, versus 12 gigabits in 2016. The overall market-level average price per data center Ethernet switch port remained stable, as higher bandwidth per port offset lower bandwidth cost.

Other noteworthy results from Crehan’s data center switch report include:

  • 25 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) combined with 100GbE yielded an increase of close to $2 billion in 2017, with 100GbE as the major contributor.
  • Branded data center switch revenue increased ten percent in 2017, the strongest annual growth in four years.
  • 40GbE shipments started to decline in 2017, however, this decline was very moderate with shipments only falling five percentage points for the year.
  • 10GBASE-T saw robust annual growth of 34%, comprising almost 30% of all 10GbE shipments in 2017.
  • Branded data center switch bandwidth deployments in the past two years exceeded deployments in the prior eight years combined.
  • In 2017, 100GbE surpassed 10GbE to become the largest single contributor to overall data center Ethernet switch network bandwidth.


The rapid adoption of 100GbE – where port shipments went from an annual run-rate of less than a hundred thousand ports to over four million ports in only two years – bodes well for the upcoming introduction of 400GbE data center switches which offer the same compelling economics against the backdrop of strong cloud demand for higher network speeds.

Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Crehan: 400GbE to drive majority of data center Ethernet switch bandwidth

400 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) switches will see initial shipments this year and will grow exponentially, driving the majority of data center Ethernet switch bandwidth by 2022, according to a newly published Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report by Crehan Research Inc.

In addition to a strong ramp of 400GbE, Crehan’s report predicts that:

  • 400GbE data center switches will offer a bandwidth discount over lower speed switches during the initial year of shipments  400GbE adoption will be further bolstered by the arrival of 100G-PAM4 SerDes, likely in the 2020 timeframe, thus reducing the number of lanes required to achieve 400GbE by half – from 8*50 to 4*100 – and further lessening the cost and power of these data center switches 
  • 100GbE shipments will surpass 40GbE shipments during 2018, just three years after the initial shipments of high-density 100GbE data center switch systems 
  • The overall market average selling price per port for data center switching will remain relatively stable, driven by the adoption of higher-speed switches 

“Beginning with high-density 100GbE systems, we entered a new era of much faster data center switch upgrades, and that trend is predicted to continue with 400GbE,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.  "With its expected market-leading price per gigabit and no foreseeable shortage of demand for higher-speed networking capacity in cloud data centers, 400GbE should surpass a million ports shipped in less time than it took 100GbE to reach that threshold.”

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Crehan: Data Center Ethernet Switch Market is Hot

Sales of data center Ethernet switches saw the strongest growth in five years during the second quarter of 2017, with year-over-year growth of fourteen percent, according to the latest report from Crehan Research Inc.

“2Q17 was a particularly strong quarter for data center Ethernet switching, as customers responded very favorably to the many compelling products that have arrived on the market,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “These switches not only have significantly improved price performance, but also additional visibility, programmability, security, and automation capabilities, enabling customers to handle a diversity of data center networking workloads at scale in a more cost effective and simpler way.”

In addition to stellar overall market growth during the quarter, notable results from Crehan’s data center switch report include:

  • Juniper Networks had the strongest growth in data center switching revenues, with a 60% year-over-year increase.
  • In the modular data center switch segment – which is most indicative of aggregation/spine deployments –100GbE shipments surpassed 40GbE shipments 
  • Arista Networks accounted for the largest share in 100GbE data center switch shipments.
  • Cisco Systems continues to drive the growth in 25GbE data center switching, with its Cloud Scale Nexus 9000 platform comprising the vast majority of total 25GbE market shipments.
  • Despite the strong 25GbE increase, 10GbE shipments continued to show robust growth, with overall data center switch shipments increasing in excess of 10% year-over-year on the strength
  • of very healthy 10GBASE-T adoption in both enterprise and service provider data center networks.

The strong initial adoption of 25GbE and 100GbE data center switches is in keeping with Crehan’s January 2017 long-range forecast, which noted that 25GbE and 100GbE were expected to ramp rapidly and comprise over half of all shipments by 2021.

http://www.crehanresearch.com

Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Crehan: Early 25GbE Adoption Faster than 10GbE

The adoption of 25GbE gigabit Ethernet (GbE) is off to a much stronger start than either 10GbE or 40GbE, according to a new Server-Class Adapter & LAN on-Motherboard (LOM) Report from Crehan Research Inc.

In fact, 25GbE shipments have handily surpassed two hundred thousand ports in just a little over a year, a milestone that took 10GbE about six years to reach and 40GbE about four – see accompanying figure. Moreover, each of these successive Ethernet networking technologies has ramped faster than its predecessor in response to changing data center networking traffic demands.

“The ramp of 25GbE shipments is off to a stellar start, driven by compelling pricing and rapid, broad ecosystem alignment, as well as new data center application bandwidth requirements," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Looking at the broader high-speed networking adoption arcs, we are seeing an acceleration in adoption as customers move to stay ahead of numerous network traffic demands including big data and related analytics, a rapidly growing and changing mobile internet, Network Function Virtualization (NFV), machine learning, and augmented and virtual reality."

Crehan’s report also notes that in conjunction with the stellar performance of 25GbE, both 50GbE and 100GbE are also seeing rapid growth, with each already exceeding an annualized shipment run-rate of over one hundred thousand ports. “The simultaneous strong initial ramp in three new higher-speed Ethernet networking technologies suggests that we may be at an inflection point in data center networking bandwidth demand," Crehan said. "Furthermore, it reflects additional segmentation of the Ethernet market as this market shifts away from the one-size-fits-all deployment model that used to dominate.”

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Monday, March 6, 2017

Crehan: Branded Data Center Ethernet Switch Revenue Tops $10B in '16

Branded data center Ethernet switch sales exceeded $10 billion in 2016, according to the latest report from Crehan Research Inc.  The report notes that this revenue level, a record, was accompanied by the strongest market growth rate since 2013.

“2016 was a strong year for data center Ethernet switching, with robust customer spending on public, private and hybrid clouds," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “40GbE and 100GbE switches were the main market drivers, with a total of over one billion dollars in revenue growth. However, 40GbE data center switch spending softened in the second half of the year, while spending on 100GbE continued to increase throughout the year."

In addition to the strong top-level revenue performance, notable results from Crehan’s data center switch report include:

  • 25GbE shipments ramped exponentially during 2016, exceeding a one-and-a-half million annual port run-rate by 4Q16, driven mostly by Cisco’s Cloud Scale Nexus 9000 series 
  •  100GbE shipments increased dramatically throughout the year, also surpassing a one-and-a-half million annual port run-rate by 4Q16, with data center switches from Arista and Cisco accounting for most of the year’s volume 
  • 10GBASE-T data center switch shipments increased more than 60% for the full year 2016  Cisco accounted for over half of total branded data center Ethernet switch revenues in 2016 
  • Arista, Huawei and Juniper all saw data center switch revenue increases in excess of 30% in 2016, resulting in share gains  
  • The top-line 2016 average selling price per data center switch port was almost identical to that of 2015  

“The total market average selling price remained remarkably stable in 2016, despite factors such as intense data center switch competition and the price negotiating power of the large hyper-scale cloud customers," Crehan said. "Migration to higher speeds and strong adoption of modular switching were key factors in the stability.”

http://www.crehanresearch.com

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

Crehan: 25GbE and 100GbE > 50% of Data Center Ethernet Switch Shipments by 2021

Over half of all data center Ethernet switch shipments by 2021 will be 25 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) and 100GbE, according to a new report from Crehan Research that also predicts that these two technologies will be most instrumental in driving this market beyond $15B by that time.

“25GbE and 100GbE data center switch adoption is already experiencing exponential growth, with port shipments currently in the hundred-of-thousands per quarter,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "Volumes would likely be even higher if it weren’t for pockets of supply constraints in certain areas, such as the optical transceivers that uplink and connect many of these switches.”

Some of the factors driving the current strong ramp and expected future high volumes of 25GbE and 100GbE data center Ethernet switching include:

  • Very small – and in some cases no – price premium over comparable 10GbE and 40GbE switches, resulting in very substantial bandwidth discounts.
  • Higher bandwidth per lane since 25GbE currently uses the same number of lanes as 10GbE and 100GbE currently uses the same number of lanes as 40GbE.
  • Compatibility with existing data center fiber cabling.
  • Very strong interest, and even some pent up demand, from the largest hyper-scale cloud providers, which can drive significant early volumes and reduce costs even further. Already some of these providers have major artificial intelligence and deep machine learning initiatives. 25/100GbE network architectures, in conjunction with compute and network accelerators, will likely be instrumental in enabling the cost-effective scaling of these types of workloads.

Crehan’s latest Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report further predicts that as a result of the strong adoption of 25GbE and 100GbE, SFP-based 10GbE and QSFP-based 40GbE data center switch shipments will decline in 2017. In contrast, 10GBASE-T data center switching is expected to continue growing robustly for some time.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Monday, September 12, 2016

Crehan: Spending Spikes for Branded Data Center Ethernet Switches

In the first half of 2016, spending on branded data center Ethernet switches saw the strongest growth since the first half of 2012, according to the most recent report from Crehan Research Inc.

The market’s growth rate in the first half of 2016 approximately doubled the rate seen in the previous two years leading to record results, according to the report.

“Customer spending and deployments of branded data center Ethernet switches accelerated significantly during the first half of this year due to a number of factors," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.

“First, we have seen the recent introduction of numerous products with compelling features and value propositions including programmability, automation, and telemetry, which help to enable software-defined data center networks. Second, we are seeing the price per gigabit of bandwidth drop significantly, enticing customers to upgrade their existing infrastructure. And lastly, we are seeing a lot of early excitement and interest around 100 gigabit Ethernet switching, where data center shipments have gone from about ten thousand ports in the first half of 2015 to well over one-hundred thousand ports in the first half of 2016."

Some highlights:


  • Over half of all spending on branded data center Ethernet switches during the first half of 2016 was on Cisco products, with particularly strong adoption of the company’s Nexus 3000 and 9000 lines. 
  • The strongest vendor revenue growth during the same time period was seen by Arista and Huawei, each of which increased revenues by over thirty percent in comparison to the first half of 2015. 
  • Juniper Networks’ revenue also had a very healthy increase – in the twenty-percent range – as its QFX portfolio of data center Ethernet switches saw strong acceptance within the telco, cable and cloud service provider markets.


http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Monday, July 25, 2016

Crehan: Steeper Price Declines for Ethernet Networking Bandwidth

Much steeper server-class Ethernet networking price declines will result in a significant increase in bandwidth deployed, enabling the next phase of cloud services, according to most recent Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) Long-Range Forecast Report from Crehan Research Inc.

The firm forecasts that the dollar-per-gigabit cost of server-class Ethernet networking bandwidth will fall to less than one-fifth of its current level within five years, and that the related bandwidth deployed will correspondingly increase more than seven-fold during that same time period (see accompanying figure).

“Over the past five years, server-class Ethernet networking bandwidth has seen a robust increase of about thirty percent per year, in conjunction with ever-increasing data center network traffic and an annual dollar-per-gigabit price decline in the ten to fifteen percent range,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.

“With the arrival of 25 gigabit Ethernet (GbE), 50GbE and 100GbE, we expect an inflection change in this trend, with total bandwidth increasing close to fifty percent annually and the cost-per-gigabit of that bandwidth declining by close to thirty percent annually.” He added, “In fact, we are already seeing examples where 25GbE, 50GbE and 100GbE data center Ethernet products have very small – and sometimes no – price premium over the comparable lower speed offering.”

Despite its projection of a very strong ramp in the adoption of 25GbE, 50GbE and 100GbE, Crehan Research expects 10GbE to remain a very important server-class Ethernet networking technology through 2020, especially in enterprise data centers. “Although there is a lot of excitement around 25GbE, 50GbE and 100GbE, and justifiably so,” Crehan said, “many enterprise data centers are still using 1GbE for server networking attach. A lot of these customers will likely see 10GbE, and especially 10GBASE-T, as their next network upgrade path.” In a prior long-range forecast report, the firm noted that in contrast to the past, many high-speed Ethernet networking speeds would coexist simultaneously, as the diverse segments of the market looked for more targeted solutions to meet their specific needs.

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Saturday, March 5, 2016

Crehan: Data Center Switch Market Hits $12B in 2015, Reports Crehan Research

The data center switch market reached $12 billion in sales in 2015, according to a new report from Crehan Research.

Ethernet, which accounts for the majority of data center switch revenues, grew 7% in 2015, while InfiniBand revenues surged to a record year, surpassing its prior record of 2012. In contrast with Ethernet and InfiniBand, Fibre Channel switch revenues declined slightly following growth in 2014.

“Ethernet remained by far the dominantdata center switch technology during 2015," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "With the recent introductions of attractively priced 25 gigabit Ethernet (GbE), 50GbE, and 100GbE switches, we expect this to continue," he said, adding, "InfiniBand is also enjoying a strong resurgence, in conjunction with the adoption of Intel’s higher performing Grantley-based server platforms and ever-expanding high performance computing applications."

Some highlights:

  • 10GBASE-T and 40GbE were the main data center Ethernet switch growth drivers in 2015, with both technologies seeing an approximate doubling of annual shipments
  • Modular data center Ethernet switch shipments returned to growth after two consecutive years of decline
  • 25GbE/50GbE/100GbE data center switches saw initial shipments in 4Q15, along with the server adapters to connect to these switches. These products are expected to ramp strongly in the second half of 2016 
  • Cisco accounted for 60% of total data center Ethernet switch revenue in 2015
  • Arista’s total data center Ethernet switch revenue increased more than 40% in 2015, resulting in a two-point share gain
  • Huawei’s 4Q15 data center Ethernet switch revenue more than doubled year-over-year, as data center upgrades and build-outs continued to be strong in China despite macro-economic volatility
  • For full-year 2015, 16Gbps Fibre Channel became a solid majority of total Fibre Channel switch  shipments, laying the foundation for the ramp of recently introduced 32Gbps Fibre Channel products
  • White box and ODM-direct data center Ethernet switching accounted for 4% of total 2015 data center switch revenue

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Crehan: Data Center Ethernet Switch Market to Hit $15 Billion by 2020

A confluence of faster data center Ethernet switch upgrades will propel the market to $15 billion by 2020, according to Crehan Research's latest Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report. The firm projects that 100 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) switching will ramp strongly by the second half of this year, and that 400GbE will experience robust growth in 2018. The firm also predicts the adoption next year of dedicated 25GbE switch ports by customers who prefer not using breakout cables on 100GbE switching to connect to 25GbE server and storage ports.

"While we expect the initial ramp in 100GbE and 400GbE data center switching to be driven by the largest hyper-scale cloud service providers, we also anticipate strong interest from other segments of the market, with subsequent increased adoption," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research.

The report further predicts that despite the upcoming growth in 25GbE, 100GbE and 400GbE, 10GbE will remain an important technology through 2020, and will likely comprise the majority of network connections in many enterprise data centers. "With so many different speeds, we are seeing more granular segmentation in the Ethernet switch market," Crehan said. "We seem to be moving away from the one-size-fits-all deployment model that once prevailed."

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Crehan: Strong Rebound for Data Center Ethernet Switch Market

The data center Ethernet switch market posted strong growth in the second quarter of 2015, according to a recent report from Crehan Research Inc. The firm reported that revenues and shipments both grew by more than 10 percent, helped by strong increases from 40 gigabit Ethernet (40GbE) and 10GBASE-T (10 gigabit-over-copper).

“We continue to see more 40GbE data center switch deployments, especially from the hyper-scale cloud market segment," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "At the same time, we are also seeing strong adoption of 10GBASE-T from both the enterprise and tier-2 cloud service provider segments," he added.

Besides the robust performance of 40GbE and 10GBASE-T, Crehan’s 2Q15 data center switch report includes these notable results:

  • HP Networking saw the strongest quarter-over-quarter data center Ethernet switch revenue growth, while Arista Networks saw the strongest year-over-year growth.
  • Cisco maintained its market share leadership position, accounting for almost 60% of total data center Ethernet Switch revenue. 
  • While all data center Ethernet switch types saw strong shipment growth in 2Q15, the Modular segment had the largest increase.
  • Infiniband switch shipments nearly doubled year-over-year, resulting in a record quarter.
  • In contrast with Ethernet and Infiniband, Fibre Channel switch revenue and shipments declined, both sequentially and year-over-year.

Although 40GbE data center switching is currently growing at a rapid rate, with shipments more than doubling year-over-year, Crehan’s last long-range forecast report noted that the impending arrival of low-priced 100GbE-capable data center switches could significantly slow down this growth, especially in the hyper-scale cloud segment.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/CREHAN-Data-Center-Switch-2Q15-PR.pdf

Monday, July 13, 2015

Crehan: Data Center Switch Market Ready for 100 GbE Upgrade

Switches capable of 100 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) will soon experience a very strong increase in adoption, according to Crehan Research's most recent Data Center Switch Long-Range Forecast Report.

The firm is forecasting that data center switch port shipments in this market segment will grow from a current annual run-rate of tens of thousands to handily exceed ten million by 2019. The report points to compelling pricing as a key enabler of the strong uptake, with average 100GbE selling prices falling by approximately 50% year-over-year for a number of consecutive years.

"We expect that 100GbE-capable data center switching will soon see a dramatic increase as a result of the compelling economics and diverse use-cases that the upcoming next-gen products enable," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "Price premiums over prior technologies should be relatively small, and these switches can be deployed from the core of the data center network all the way down to the server access layer, given their flexible speed configurations via breakout cables," he said.

The report further predicts that the keen interest in this next-generation 100GbE-capable data center switching technology from the hyper-scale cloud segment will be a major driver of the initial strong uptake. The deployment of a new technology from large hyper-scale customers such as Google and Microsoft can result in its dramatic growth. This was recently the case with 40GbE server-access deployments and was highlighted in a prior Crehan Research data center networking report.

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Monday, June 1, 2015

Crehan: High-Speed Server Networking Adoption Accelerates

Combined 10 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) and 40GbE shipments have increased more than 30% year-over-year to account for almost 30% of total 1Q15 Ethernet server-class adapter and LOM shipments, according to new reports from Crehan Research Inc. s. Over the same time period, 16 Gigabit per second (Gbps) Fibre Channel Host Bus Adapter (HBA) shipments have seen a two-and-a-half fold increase to comprise 20% of total Fibre Channel shipments. These higher server networking speeds are now at inflection points in terms of adoption.

"Customers are more-rapidly upgrading their server networking capabilities to faster speeds to take advantage of the higher bandwidth capabilities of the most recent server platforms," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "Currently, this is more evident in the hyper-scale, telco and high-performance computing segments, and we expect it to become evident in the general enterprise environment by the second half of this year," he added. "Furthermore, we expect this migration to higher-bandwidth servers to in turn drive more widespread deployments of higher-bandwidth data center switches.”

http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Crehan: Sales of Branded Data Center Switches Continue to Grow

Customer deployments of branded data center Ethernet switches grew ten percent in 2014, a slight increase over the 2013 growth rate, despite an increase in white box switch offerings, according to the most recent data center switch report from Crehan Research Inc.

 Crehan’s report further shows that branded Ethernet switch shipments in the high-speed top-of-rack, or fixed, segment – where white box switch offerings are most prevalent – increased by almost 40% in 2014 (see accompanying chart).

“Most of the white box and ODM-direct switch market volume is still driven by a few of the very large, hyper-scale cloud service providers, and its growth has remained largely a function of these few service providers building out their data center networks," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "Over the past few years, the branded data center switch vendors have really narrowed the gap on the perceived advantages of white box switches," he said. “Although it varies by vendor, this has included lowering prices significantly, incorporation of more merchant silicon, offering more programmability and SDN features, disaggregation of hardware and software, and bringing open compute and networking designs to market."

Some highlights from Crehan's report:

  • 40 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) data center switch shipments more than tripled, while revenues more than doubled.
  • 10GBASE-T data center switching rapidly expanded in 2014, exiting the year with an annual run rate of over two million ports.
  • Despite steep price declines in some of the individual data center Ethernet switch segments, overall market pricing remained relatively stable in 2014 due to greater adoption of higher-speed switches, which carry a price premium.
  • The Fibre Channel switch market returned to revenue growth in 2014, as higher average selling prices more than offset a slight annual shipment decline.


http://www.crehanresearch.com/

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Crehan: Multiple Technologies Drive Stronger Server Networking Upgrade Cycle

The availability of multiple new data-center Ethernet speeds will lead to a much stronger server networking upgrade cycle than seen over the past decade, according to a new Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) Long-Range Forecast Report from Crehan Research.

The firm expects that the impending arrival of 25 gigabit Ethernet (GbE), 50GbE and 100GbE products, in combination with existing 10GbE and 40GbE products, will result in more than two-thirds of total networking ports migrating to high-speed Ethernet within three years (see accompanying figure).

“Over the past decade or so, the data center has seen many significant changes, and it is no longer a one-size-fits-all market,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “Consequently, we are seeing solutions that are highly optimized for the needs of specific customer segments, whether it be a fully vertically integrated system for a converged enterprise network or a bare-bones disaggregated system for a massively scalable cloud service provider,” he said. “As a result, the market is currently looking for more targeted Ethernet networking solutions.”

The report predicts that the many various high-speed Ethernet options will coexist for some time, each benefitting from the demands of a specific market segment. For example:
  • 25GbE is expected to see a strong initial ramp from deployments by cloud titans such as Google and Microsoft, an area of the market where 10GbE server networking is currently prevalent. 
  • 10GbE should see its third, and biggest, adoption phase as the mainstream enterprise market upgrades its mostly 1GBASE-T server and server access infrastructure to 10GBASE-T.
  • 40GbE is starting to ramp significantly, benefitting from a current window of opportunity as the most attractively priced data center Ethernet speed from a bandwidth perspective. 

In both its 3Q14 Server-Class Adapter & LAN-on-Motherboard (LOM) Long-Range Forecast and its 3Q14 Data Center Switch reports, Crehan Research highlighted the dramatic uptake in 40GbE data center adoption, noting that networking bandwidth demands were so strong in some market verticals that these customers could not wait to evaluate impending 25GbE and 50GbE options.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Crehan: A Surge in 40 Gigabit Data Center Networking Adoption

The adoption of 40 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) in data centers is significantly accelerating, according to recent and upcoming reports from Crehan Research.

Crehan’s latest server-class adapter and LAN-on-motherboard report shows that 40GbE speeds on these products is already approaching a quarter-million port annual run-rate in 3Q14, and on track to increase four-fold, reaching a million port annual run-rate by 4Q14.

The reports show that Mellanox currently accounts for the majority of 40GbE server adapter shipments, while Cisco is the share leader in 40GbE data center switch port shipments.

“We were very bullish in our outlook for 40GbE data center networking growth in 2014, but results in certain segments of this market are already exceeding our forecast," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "Data center networking traffic demands are so strong in some market verticals that these customers cannot wait to evaluate the upcoming 25GbE and 50GbE options. They need to go ahead and deploy speeds greater than 10GbE right now," he said. "Furthermore, 40GbE is currently benefiting from a window of opportunity where it is a viable server connection as well as a viable data center aggregation and core networking option."

With its prior data center switch report (2Q14), Crehan Research noted that low-priced switches had driven strong data center Ethernet growth. These lower prices are especially pronounced in 40GbE and are helping to drive the much stronger adoption of this technology.

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

Monday, September 8, 2014

Crehan Research: Low-Priced Switches Drive Data Center Ethernet Growth

After a particularly weak first quarter, steep price declines helped propel the Ethernet data center switch market to new shipment highs in the second quarter of 2014, according to the most recent data center Ethernet switch report from Crehan Research Inc..

As shown in the accompanying figure, the growth was particularly pronounced in the high-speed Ethernet segment, which includes 10, 40 and 100 Gigabit Ethernet data center switches. In that segment, data center switch port shipments increased by one million ports during the single quarter alone. Cisco, which holds a strong leadership position in high-speed Ethernet, was responsible for much of the market growth, gaining share with its Nexus portfolio of data center switches.

“Besides typical seasonality, there were a number of factors that constrained the data center Ethernet switch market in 1Q14," said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. "These included pockets of supply constraints, and possibly some customer buying pause while recently-introduced 10 and 40 Gigabit Ethernet data center switches and line cards with much lower prices were evaluated. As these factors eased and we moved into the seasonally stronger second quarter, the data center Ethernet switch market rebounded strongly," he explained.

In its previous long-range forecast report, Crehan Research forecast a stronger migration to higher Ethernet speeds as a result of the arrival of significantly lower-priced data center switches. The firm further expects that this migration will also be aided by the arrival of Intel’s Grantley-based server platforms, where it expects 10 Gigabit Ethernet adapters to be a much more popular server networking.

http://www.CrehanResearch.com

See also