Showing posts with label Cignal AI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cignal AI. Show all posts

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Cignal AI: EMEA optical and packet transport spending bounces back

European operators resumed purchases of optical and packet transport hardware in 3Q20 as COVID-related supply chain and operational delays eased, according to the most recent Transport Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI. At the same time, North American spending weakness spread to the optical hardware segment as the region’s operators paused capex after aggressive deployments in the first half of the year.

“EMEA’s packet and optical transport sales growth was bolstered by sales deferred from Q2 and raised the market overall during the third quarter,” said Scott Wilkinson, Transport Hardware lead analyst at Cignal AI. “The outcome was different in North America, where sales were more frontloaded in the first two quarters than in EMEA, especially by the larger operators. NA annual CapEx budgets are largely exhausted, producing declining sales in the second half of the year for this region.”

Highlights:

  • Optical hardware spending grew by double-digits in EMEA, countering expectations of a flat-to-down quarter in optical spending. Nokia led the robust growth with a boost from sales deferred from Q2. Worldwide, optical hardware spending was up slightly.
  • Packet transport hardware spending also rose in EMEA but declined worldwide. EMEA packet transport revenue for both Huawei and Juniper grew by more than 20% YoY as the two companies gained ground on market leaders Cisco and Nokia.
  • North American optical and packet spending declined this quarter, as anticipated by vendors (Ciena, Cisco) with exposure to large network operators. Ciena continues to lead optical market share with slight YoY revenue growth, while Cisco maintains packet transport market leadership despite a sharp YoY revenue decline.

https://cignal.ai/2020/11/emea-optical-and-packet-transport-spending-bounces-back-in-3q20/

Sunday, May 31, 2020

Cignal AI: Network operators accelerate Capex in response to COVID-19

The effects of COVID-19 simultaneously catalyzed demand for transport equipment and paralyzed supply chains worldwide during the first quarter of 2020, according to Cignal AI’s latest Transport Hardware Report. Results show that sales of optical and packet hardware varied dramatically by region, product category, and vendor.

“Demand for equipment is solid right now, with one major operator reporting that 70% of its annual capex budget has already been spent,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst at Cignal AI. “Operators are shifting demand forward to build capacity and inventory, and a decline in demand is likely to follow in the second half of the year.”



During Q1 2020, network operators accelerated orders and installations of new equipment to deal with vastly increasing network demand. Not all orders were intended for immediate deployment; operators also wanted extra inventory readily available in uncertain times. However, disruption in the component supply and equipment manufacturing chain, as well as travel and shipping restrictions prevented equipment companies from satisfying demand. Consequently, individual equipment vendor results varied depending on the sourcing of components and manufacturing.

Additional 1Q20 Transport Hardware Report Findings:
  • Most equipment vendors claimed a 5-10% reduction in sales due to COVID-19 operational issues. While demand sharply increased, the inability to get parts, manufacture, and deliver equipment reduced sales in all areas. This reduction was particularly true for sales of packet equipment by vendors such as Juniper Networks.
  • Ciena, Cisco, Infinera, and Nokia all gained 20% or more in YoY optical transport sales in North America this quarter. Packet sales in the region were down significantly, with supply chain issues compounding a continued drop in demand from service providers.
  • Transport equipment sales in China declined in the double digits as network operators and suppliers contended with increased network traffic demands and complex supply chain issues.

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

Cignal AI: North American optical sales rebound in 2019

Sales of optical equipment in North America rose more than 25% for 4Q19 and 10% for all of 2019, according to the most recent Transport Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI.

The North American packet market for Access and Aggregation routing devices also grew strongly in the fourth quarter as demand for Edge and Core switching and routing dropped off dramatically. 5G and other access rollouts boosted growth in the Access and Aggregation market segment.

“After three years of North American spending declines as operators focused capex on wireless and access, optical hardware sales for the region revived and grew at a healthy pace for 2019, while packet hardware sales remained flat,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst at Cignal AI. “Market leaders Ciena, Infinera, and Cisco all achieved optical sales growth of more than 25% in 2019.”

Some highlights:

  • Long haul optical spending reached record levels in 2019. Growth slowed in 4Q19 but the segment finished the year up over 10%.
  • Transport equipment sales in China declined slightly in 4Q19 as packet sales declined and optical sales growth cooled to single digits. When adjusted for the influence of ZTE’s shutdown in 2Q18, optical hardware sales grew less than 10% in 2019.
  • Japan ended an extraordinary year of optical sales growth up 25% in Q4 and almost 40% in 2019.


https://cignal.ai/2020/03/north-american-optical-sales-rebound-in-2019/

Tuesday, September 24, 2019

Cignal AI: Compact modular market slows as customers evaluate 600G

Sales of Compact Modular optical transport platforms slowed during the second quarter of the year despite significant growth from market leader Ciena, as reported in the latest Optical Applications Report from market research firm Cignal AI.

Production shipments of new 600Gbps platforms are taking longer to ramp as operators require more time to evaluate these next-generation solutions. As a result, Cignal AI has decreased the overall 2019 Compact Modular sales forecast for the year.

The outlook for Compact Modular equipment remains positive, especially in NA and EMEA where growth is strong as incumbent and cloud & colo operators expand the use of disaggregated networks. Compact modular will claim a greater percentage of the market as operators migrate to IP-over-DWDM in 2022/2023.

“The move to disaggregated networks continues, and Compact Modular optical platforms are a central part of those network designs,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware and Cignal AI. “The rollout of 600Gbps platforms is taking longer than anticipated, but NEL and Acacia-based systems from Cisco, Infinera, and others should recognize greater revenue in the third quarter and will lead a return to growth.”

Cignal AI’s 2Q19 Optical Applications Report details market share and provides forecasts through 2023 in three key markets: compact modular equipment, advanced packet-OTN switching hardware, and 100G+ coherent WDM port shipments across multiple speeds.



Additional 2Q19 Applications Report Findings:

  • Ciena maintained leadership in the Compact Modular market and was the only vendor to grow sales in Q2. Other vendors are in the middle of a customer transition to higher 400G+ coherent technology.
  • Cisco recognized token revenue from Acacia-based Compact Modular systems this quarter. Both Cisco and Infinera are expected to recognize significant 400Gbps+ revenue in the third quarter.
  • Packet-OTN sales slowed in APAC but this is not an enduring trend; sales growth slowed in Q2 due to some delayed demand among Indian incumbents. This region remains the largest market for Packet-OTN.
  • Almost 500,000 coherent ports shipped during the past twelve months, with the vast majority coming from the top 5 vendors. Volume continues to aggressively ramp during 2019, including healthy shipments from Chinese vendors.
  • The long haul WDM market is growing in 2019 due to deployments of the latest coherent technology. Metro growth continues through the year with a delay in competitive price pressure from high baud rate optics.


https://cignal.ai/2019/09/compact-modular-market-slows-as-customers-evaluate-600g/

Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Cignal AI: Optical hardware spending on the rise

Optical hardware spending grew in every region and for every business segment during 2Q19, according to the most recent Optical Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI. Huawei retained top market share worldwide and held steady despite a slowdown in China and increasing competitive and political pressures.

“Huawei managed to retain market share in what is typically its strongest quarter of the year,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst at Cignal AI. “Despite the export ban of many optical components and the reports of competitive wins against Huawei in EMEA and APAC, Huawei market share remained steady.”



Additional Key Findings in Cignal AI's 2Q19 Optical Hardware Report:

  • WDM Long Haul Spending Up – Long haul spending recovered in every region except Japan, as compact modular equipment and new high-speed coherent optics impact investments.
  • WDM Metro Declines in North America But Grows in All Other Regions – Factors contributing to the NA decline are the lower price per bit of new high-speed optics and competing priorities like the 5G rollout.
  • SONET/SDH Hangs On – Growth in APAC and EMEA offset SONET/SDH’s ongoing decline in NA. This growth comes from expansions and upgrades to existing networks; there are no new builds.
  • China’s Growth Slows — Growth in China appears dramatic due to the ZTE shutdown and the absence of revenue a year ago. Excluding ZTE’s results, growth slowed.
  • Coherent Optic Shipments Tracking to Reach Nearly 1 Million 100G Equivalent Ports in 2019 – This represents a 40% increase in bandwidth over 2018.
  • Regional trends - This quarter marked a turnaround for CALA, reversing multiple quarters of decline with a YoY surge of 30%. EMEA also grew with expansion across all product segments. Overall growth in North America was minor and would have been negative again if not for an enormous SLTE revenue increase this quarter. Finally, the rapid expansion in Japan for the past few quarters settled down to a more moderate pace with Ciena, NEC, and Huawei as the prime beneficiaries.

Cignal AI also offers an interactive Optical Hardware Market Share Tracker to clients of the Optical Hardware Report and provides quarterly up-to-date market data for real-time visibility on individual vendors’ results as they are released.

https://cignal.ai/2019/08/growth-returns-as-optical-hardware-spending-increases-in-every-region/

Friday, July 26, 2019

Cignal AI: Optical spending shifts from telcos to cloud operators

Cloud and colo spending increased over 50% in North America, offsetting declines in other regions, with Ciena continuing to lead all sales to cloud operators, according to the most recent Optical Customer Markets Report from research firm Cignal AI.

In EMEA, traditional telco (incumbent and wholesale network operators) optical spending recovered and will grow by double digits during 2019. Spending growth by these operators is slowing in APAC as total spending reaches record highs. Huawei continues to lead this market in APAC, EMEA, and CALA, while Ciena leads in North America.

“Optical spending in North America continues to shift from traditional telco providers to the cloud and colo operators,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware at Cignal AI. “Despite traditional telco operators accounting for most spending, the rapid growth in cloud spending combined with traditional operators now adopting cloud architectures has permanently changed supplier R&D priorities.”

Additional findings in the 1Q19 Optical Customer Markets Report include:

  • Ciena Waveserver Ai market share continues to increase as cloud & colo spending grows. New compact modular platforms targeted at this market are entering the market in 2Q19 with Cisco, Infinera, and Nokia among those expecting stronger sales in the next quarter.
  • North American cable/MSO spending declined in the first quarter. However, moderate growth is still expected in 2019.
  • Enterprise and Government spending shows pressure from consolidation and Cloud and Colo encroachment and isn’t expected to recover in the next two years.


https://cignal.ai/2019/07/cloud-and-colo-optical-hardware-spending-increases-by-50-in-north-america/


Tuesday, July 16, 2019

Cignal AI: Compact modular optical sales exceed $275M

Compact modular optical hardware is being used in more network applications than ever before, according to the latest Optical Applications Report from market research firm Cignal AI. The report finds that almost 30% of North American optical hardware shipments are mow in compact modular format, which was first used by cloud operators for data center interconnect applications but now includes many other operators and applications.

Market share leaders include the Ciena Waveserver, Infinera CX and Groove, and Cisco 1000 series.

“Network applications for the compact modular form factor have expanded well beyond the original data center interconnect deployments,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware at Cignal AI. “Applications now include traditional telco networks, metro and long haul deployments, and even some early trials for subsea deployment. We expect this spending trend to increase in 2019 as new compact modular products come to market from a variety of vendors.”



Some highlights from Cignal AI:

  • Compact modular hardware sales exceeded $275 million in Q1 and are tracking to exceed $1 billion in revenue this year. 
  • Growth was most pronounced in North America this quarter, where it accounted for almost 30% of the entire optical market and is expected to continue advancing through 2023.
  • Ciena expanded its dominance in compact modular with over 50% market share in Q1. The combined Infinera/Coriant held on to second place despite declining sales.
  • Acacia AC1200-based platforms are expected to have an impact starting next quarter. Cisco compact modular sales paused in Q1 in anticipation of the NCS1004 platform.
  • Almost 500k physical coherent ports have shipped in the last 12 months. Currently, over 70% of coherent ports are shipped by the top five vendors in the market.
  • After a 2018 recovery year, long haul port shipments are starting to pick up. Metro growth is advancing at a similar pace, as next-generation coherent enables an upgrade from 100Gbps.
  • Packet OTN growth is slowing. New deployments are limited to China and parts of APAC as networks in other regions evolve away from the packet OTN architecture.

https://cignal.ai/2019/07/compact-modular-sales-expand-reaching-over-275m/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=PR

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Cignal AI: Coherent Port Pricing Trends

The cost of coherent optical ports continues to drop steeply, according to a newly published report from Cignal AI using data from 3Q18. Trend analysis is provided based on past performance and future expectations as the industry migrates to fourth-generation solutions (400ZR).

Vendors included in the report are ADVA, Ciena, Cisco, Coriant, Fujitsu, Huawei, Infinera, Nokia, and ZTE. All vendors tracked in the report shipped 200G-capable optics last year.


Other findings in the 3Q18 Coherent Port Pricing Trends Report include:

  • Prices for 100G equivalent coherent optical ports have dropped exponentially.
  • The cost of deploying new coherent bandwidth has been CapEx neutral.
  • The trend toward lower prices and converging component costs benefits vertically integrated vendors long term.
https://cignal.ai/2019/01/coherent-port-pricing-trends-report-3q18

Wednesday, January 9, 2019

Cignal AI: Cloud and Colo operators ramp up optical transport spending

Record spending in the cloud & colo market continued in the third quarter and it is now forecast to top $1.4 billion worldwide for the year 2018 -- almost a 50% spending increase over 2017, according to the most recent Optical Customer Markets Report issued by networking equipment and component market research firm Cignal AI.

Some highlights in the 3Q18 Optical Customer Markets Report:
  • Cloud & colo operators continue to be the fastest growing market in optical networking, with double-digit year-over-year growth in North America and EMEA and triple-digit growth in APAC in the third quarter.
  • Ciena led equipment vendor market share for cloud & colo with over 40% share in the third quarter and over 30% share for the last 12 months combined. Huawei and Cisco tied for second place in the third quarter followed closely by a combined Infinera/Coriant.
  • Despite incumbent spending growing at less than 2% year over year worldwide, incumbent spending in APAC grew 10% and represented over 35% of the total optical market in the third quarter.
  • Incumbent spending growth in APAC is expected to decelerate in 2019 as double-digit growth cannot continue indefinitely for such a large market. Incumbent spending in North America is expected to continue to decline as capital spending is focused on mobility and switched backhaul deployments.
  • Cable MSO optical spending continued to grow at a moderate pace into the third quarter, led by double-digit growth in North America to support fiber deep architectures.
“The slowdown in cloud & colo spending during 2017 ended with a return to record growth in 2018,” said Scott Wilkinson, Lead Analyst for Optical Hardware at Cignal AI. “While incumbent operator spending is still dominant, especially in Asia, cloud & colo spending growth is becoming more influential on the market.”

Cignal AI’s Optical Customer Markets Report is issued quarterly and quantifies optical equipment sales to five key customer markets – incumbent, wholesale, cable MSO, cloud and colo, and enterprise and government. The current report includes results through 3Q18 including detailed equipment vendor market share for sales to cloud operators. Regional forecasts based on expected spending trends by customer market are also included.

http://www.cignal.ai


Wednesday, November 28, 2018

Cignal AI: Optical hardware sales surging in Asia

Optical hardware sales throughout Asia surged in 3Q18, fueled by double digit increases in China and Japan, and a turnaround in India, according to the third quarter 2018 (3Q18) Optical Hardware Report from research firm Cignal AI, which is raising its market estimates for Asia.

CignalAI said sales in North America continued to decline for the eighth consecutive quarter, as weakness in the traditional operator market was not offset by strong sales to cloud and color operators.

“China bounced back more quickly than expected following the ZTE shutdown, and outside vendors Nokia and Ciena saw a triple-digit increase in Japan during the third quarter,” said Scott Wilkinson, lead analyst, Optical Hardware for Cignal AI. “RoAPAC contributed to the success in Asia as well. While we expected a slight slowdown this year there will likely be net increases for the year, driven largely by sales in India.”


Other findings in the 3Q18 Optical Hardware Report;

  • Ciena was the only vendor among the top 5 that grew revenue in North America, thanks to sales to cloud and colo operators.
  • EMEA saw double-digit growth during the quarter, and this momentum is anticipated to continue given traditional fourth-quarter spending increases.
  • An expected turnaround in CALA did not materialize, as spending in the region continued to decline.

https://cignal.ai/

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Cignal AI: Record cloud and colo optical hardware spending

Sales of optical equipment to the cloud and colo market, which includes Google, Microsoft, and Amazon, reached record levels during 2Q18 and were nearly a quarter of all North American operator purchases during 2Q18, according to the most recent Optical Customer Markets Report issued by networking component and equipment market research firm Cignal AI.

“While cloud and colo spending is still not near traditional telco demand for optical transport equipment, the balance is shifting. This is particularly true in North America, where cloud and colo operators now provide both technical and financial leadership to the supply chain,” said Andrew Schmitt, Directing Analyst at Cignal AI.

Some highlights:

  • Incumbent spending accounts for the largest share of all optical spending in the market. In fact, incumbent spending in China is as much as all spending by other incumbent operators worldwide, combined. Outlays by EMEA incumbents increased again in the most recent quarter.
  • Cable MSO spending in North America continues to be very strong and grew both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.
  • Ciena led other vendors in direct sales to the cloud/colo market led by strength from the WaveServer platform. Also, newly-combined Infinera and Coriant became the second largest supplier of optical equipment to these customers. Huawei also continues to grow its market share as a result of growing demand from Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent.


https://cignal.ai/2018/10/cignal-ai-reports-record-cloud-and-colo-optical-hardware-spending/

Thursday, September 27, 2018

Cignal AI: Compact modular optical equipment market to top $1 billion in 2018

The market for compact modular optical equipment is on track to top $1 billion in revenue this year, according to the latest Optical Applications Report from Cignal AI. the category includes equipment designed specifically for use in DCI, open & disaggregated hardware applications.

Cignal AI has raised its CY18 forecast for 200G and 400G coherent port shipments and cut its 100G coherent forecast.

“Operators are rapidly adopting second and third generation coherent technology as they seek to lower their cost per bit and achieve better performance. This has resulted in higher than expected demand for 200G and 400G speeds this year, at the expense of first-generation coherent,” said Andrew Schmitt, lead analyst for Cignal AI. “Compounding this trend is the growing adoption of 200G CFP2 DCO modules, which allows coherent technology to integrate with switches and routers more easily than earlier solutions.”

Some highlights from Cignal AI:

  • Ciena and Huawei Top Compact Modular Market Growth – In this record quarter, Ciena and Huawei were the fastest-growing vendors in the compact modular segment. Ciena benefits from its third-generation coherent technology, while Huawei was lifted by greater adoption from Chinese cloud operators. New entrant Nokia also grew share in its second quarter of serving this market.
  • Packet-OTN Market Grows with Incumbent Adoption – More incumbent network operators are using packet-OTN switching hardware to upgrade their transport networks. In North America, this segment grew 30 percent year-over-year as result of more deployments by Verizon and other large incumbents. Growth was also significant in EMEA and India, where Nokia has taken significant market share.
  • Third Generation Coherent Gaining Momentum – Even though the overall market slowed in 2Q18 as a result of ZTE’s shutdown, other vendors experienced healthy sales growth. Third generation coherent solutions are picking up steam with Ciena’s 400G offering doing well. Acacia, Huawei, Nokia, and NTT Electronics based solutions will reach the market within the next two quarters to challenge Ciena’s lead.
https://cignal.ai/2018/09/compact-modular-optical-equipment-market-on-pace-to-break-1-billion-in-2018/


Thursday, September 21, 2017

Cignal AI forecasts 400G Coherent WDM shipments in 2020

Shipments of 400G coherent WDM volume starts to ramp this year, led by Ciena deployments and then followed by other suppliers six to nine months later, according to a newly-published, bi-annual Optical Applications Report report from Cignal AI, an independent research firm based in Boston. The introduction of small form factor 100G and 400G pluggable models will be a major catalyst.

“Cignal AI has close relationships with equipment and component manufacturers, as well as end users, and these relationships give us a unique insight into the optical equipment market.  From this vantage point, we can forecast emerging technologies such as coherent 400G WDM usage,” states Andrew Schmitt, lead analyst for Cignal AI. “Pluggable 400G ZR modules should enter the market by 2019, and they will be the final nail in the coffin for 10G WDM networks.”

Some key findings:

  • Both 100G and 400G coherent will be widely adopted at the edge of the network by the end of 2021.
  • Cisco is growing 100G port deployments faster than all other vendors in the market.
  • Equipment originally designed for DCI applications is rapidly evolving into applications outside the datacenter. Cignal AI is now using "Compact Modular for this class of products.
  • Spending on compact modular equipment more than tripled in the first half of 2017, compared to the same period last year. Ciena, Cisco, and Infinera are the market share and technology leaders for this sector.
  • Revenue for packet-OTN systems grew in the double digits in the first half of 2017, compared to the same period last year.


https://cignal.ai/