Showing posts with label ABI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ABI. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

ABI survey finds 55% plan to use telcos for connectivity only

According to the latest Industry Survey: Transformative Technology Adoption and Attitudes – Implementers' Perspective of Telco and Cloud report from ABI Research, despite telecom operators' efforts to enter new enterprise markets and create new business opportunities, the B2B technology survey indicates that technology implementers predominantly see telcos as providers of connectivity, and not value-added, vertical specific services.

The ABI survey finds that 55% of implementer respondents expect to use telcos for connectivity alone, with 31% favouring a 'connectivity+' approach, presenting an opportunity for telcos to bundle value-added, vertical-specific services with connectivity. However, only 13% of survey respondents expect telcos to create new ecosystems for IoT, data-related, IT and cloud services.

ABI noted that connectivity+ involves bundling vertical-specific services on top of connectivity, allowing telcos to leverage existing assets such as data, devices management, applications and services management, security and analytics to add value for implementers.

The research firm stated that the survey also indicate that telcos cannot, and should not, attempt to compete with web-scale companies in cloud computing services.

Specifically, ABI finds that only 4% of implementers surveyed intend to utilise telcos for cloud computing services currently, and projects that this will decline to 1% over the next five years. However, the survey shows that 12% of respondents are currently using hybrid cloud, and forecasts that this will increase to 38% in the next five years as the industry recognises the growing importance of using more than private and public cloud services on a standalone basis.

Commenting on the survey, Dimitris Mavrakis, research director at ABI Research, said, "Verizon has done well to offload its cloud businesses and other Tier 1 telcos will follow… competing with web-scale companies in their own field is impossible for telcos… implementer requirements and telco strategies seem to be disparate for the moment, for example, telcos are focusing on the automotive vertical, but the survey indicates that the retail, government and logistics markets are very interested in telco services".

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

ABI: Cloud Deployments to take off after 2020, driven by roll-out of 5G

ABI Research predicts in its Telco Cloud Framework and Deployment Roadmaps study that large-scale telco cloud deployments will attain critical mass after 2020, in parallel with the deployment for 5G networks.

ABI expects that the fifth network generation will require a new core network to support advanced concepts such as network slicing and services geared towards a variety of business verticals. However, the research firm believes that early 5G deployments will focus on delivering enhanced mobile broadband, which will mean there will be no immediate requirement for a new telco core network.

ABI notes that AT&T, Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica and Verizon are currently refining their strategies for 5G and planning their networks as shared platforms, rather than a mix of individual network appliances. As a result, network resources will be virtualised, distributed and software controlled with the aim of creating a far more agile network. In turn, this model will allow the implementation of what it terms an 'untelco' strategy, involving the sale of tailored network resources to different verticals.

However, ABI finds there are signs that the deployment of end-to-end systems remains the end goal for operators. For example, Telefonica O2 UK has awarded Nokia an end-to-end contract for a cloud-native packet core. It notes that implementing a true vendor-agnostic, common-off-the-shelf (COTS)-based network in-house would present the operator with a considerable challenge. ABI anticipates the award of many more end-to-end telco cloud vendor contracts in the future.

Commenting on the report, Dimitris Mavrakis, research director at ABI Research, said:

-           "Although telcos are transforming their technology and business platforms to become more agile and to evolve past monolithic access-based business models, they are finding it much more challenging than anticipated… software, cloud computing and open source are promising and will simplify operations, but in the short term, telcos are preferring to rely on their trusted vendors".

-           "… open source projects are contributing valuable inputs toward the evolution of telco networks, (but) there is also competition among open source projects and the concept is misunderstood and in some cases misused… the golden ratio is somewhere between end-to-end systems and open source components, if vendors provide open interfaces and flexibility to integrate third-party and smaller vendors".

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

ABI reports 2bn LTE Subscribers Accounting for 67% of mobile traffic

According to the latest Mobile Networks Biannual Update report from ABI Research, the mobile telecoms landscape is evolving rapidly, with national 4G deployments nearing completion in most markets worldwide and estimating that the 2 billion global 4G (LTE) subscribers as of early 2017 will increase to more than 4 billion in 2022, meaning that globally over 50% of people will be using an LTE network by that time.

However, ABI notes that the 4G market is continuing to develop, with the first gigabit-capable LTE networks beginning to arrive, offering mobile connectivity at speeds of up to 1 Gbit/s for end users.

Meanwhile, although 5G discussions and early developments are progressing ABI believes that LTE networks will continue as the backbone of broadband connectivity for many years yet as networks are upgraded to enable gigabit speeds and provide the foundation for 5G.

Further highlights of the ABI study include:

1. Mobile traffic totaled an estimated 109 Exabytes during 2016 and will reach 522 Exabytes in 2022, representing an average user consumption of 1.2 Gbytes per month currently, rising to over 5.7 Gbytes per month by 2022.

2. Over the period to 2022, LTE is expected to continue to be the dominant technology; at present LTE carries around 67% of total mobile traffic, and this is predicted to increase to 82% in 2022, while by that time 5G will account for only 13% of overall mobile data traffic.

3. Operator profitability is under pressure, with ARPU in the U.S., the most lucrative market, at around $43 currently, but expected to decline to less than $35 in 2022.

4. Network operator capex is also under pressure and looks set to continue to decrease until 2019, after which time it will rise as 5G deployments will ramp up.

5. 2G and 3G networks are expected to experience a double-digit subscriber decline for the second consecutive year; ABI notes that of the operators it tracks, 60 are twilighting 2G and 38 sunsetting 3G networks, meaning no more investments in upgrades, although consolidation of infrastructure and 2G/3G combinations with 4G continue.

Commenting on the report, Nick Marshall, research director at ABI Research, said, "Gigabit LTE appeared this month in Telstra’s network, and ABI expects more than 15 mobile operators to be offering gigabit speed services to subscribers by the end of 2017… this is a significant development, and one that will lead to new use cases from the increase in data speed available to end users".

Monday, March 13, 2017

ABI Reports 16.5m LTE-A Pro subs in 2016 and Forecasts 641m by 2021

ABI Research finds in its report, LTE-Advanced Pro/4.5G: Bridging the Gap to 5G, that as LTE-Advanced Pro deployments gain momentum the technology, which offers an upgrade from current LTE-Advanced networks, can enable the transition to 5G for mobile operators.

ABI estimates that global subscribers for LTE-Advanced Pro high-speed downlink services totalled 16.5 million at the end of 2016 and forecasts that global subscribers to high-speed data services will exceed 641 million by 2021, with 87% of the total in Asia Pacific, North America and Western Europe region,

The research firm notes that delivering downlink speeds of between 450 Mbit/s and up to 1.2 Gbit/s utilising LTE-Advanced Pro is dependent on a number of technology enhancements, namely a minimum of 3-component carrier aggregation (CA), 4 x 4 MIMO antennae and 256QAM downlink combined with 16QAM uplink modulation. The use of these technologies allows high speed user access as well as freeing up limited network resources and optimising the spectral efficiency of the mobile network.

ABI estimates that there are currently approximately 120 LTE-Advanced Pro trials or commercial deployments in place. Notably, Australia's Telstra launched its Gigabit-class LTE service in January 2017, while other operators with projects underway include AT&T, Sprint and T-Mobile in the U.S., NTT DOCOMO in Japan and SK Telecom in South Korea.

The research firm adds that while current smartphones are not yet capable of supporting gigabit LTE speeds, it expects that mass device production will begin later this year based on early announcements of flagship gigabit LTE smartphones by several established OEMs during the recent Mobile World Congress 2017.

Commenting on the report, Jake Saunders, VP at ABI Research, said, "LTE-Advanced Pro gives mobile network operators a capex-friendly option to continue upgrading their networks… 5G may be still out of the reach for many operators, but through incremental investment LTE-Advanced Pro guarantees features that will generate new business cases for operators and better user experience for end users, while preparing for 5G deployment".

Thursday, June 11, 2015

ABI Research: 1.37 Billion LTE Users by Year-end 2015

There will be nearly 1.37 billion 4G LTE subscribers worldwide by year-end 2015, up from nearly 650 million in 2014, according to a new forecast from ABI Research.

ABI Research predicts that the LTE subscriber base will exceed 3.5 billion by 2020, demonstrating a 5 year CAGR of 20.8%. The exponential rise in LTE points-of-presence covered justifies the need for sustained investment in LTE infrastructure, which is expected to grow nearly 10% year-on-year.

The report cites ongoing LTE infrastructure deployments in the United States, Asia and China, including plans for small cell rollouts and LTE-U.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

ABI Research:103 Million LTE Devices Shipped in 2012

ABI Research estimates that 103 million 4G LTE mobile devices shipped in 2012, although the research agency notes that there is not a 1-to-1 correspondence between devices and LTE subscriptions. According to the report, LTE-enabled handsets to 91 million units by YE-2012 and the balance coming from other mobile devices.

New sign-ups and conversion of 3G subscribers with LTE-capable handsets should gather pace in 2013 and 2014. By 2017 we are anticipating 785 LTE million subscribers, up from 58 million at the end of 2012 – generating US$14 billion in annual service revenues,” stated Phil Solis, Research Director.