Tuesday, February 3, 2015

Cisco: 2019 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast

Global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 292 exabytes by 2019, up from 30 exabytes in 2014, according to the newly released Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2014 to 2019.  Not surprisingly, the ongoing adoption of more powerful mobile devices and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections combined with broader access to faster cellular networks are key contributors to significant mobile traffic growth.

From 2014 to 2019, Cisco anticipates that global mobile traffic growth will outpace global fixed traffic growth by a factor of three.

Some highlights from the Cisco study:

  • More mobile users: By 2019, there will be 5.2 billion mobile users (up from 4.3 billion in 2014). In 2014, nearly 59 percent of the world's population (7.2 billion people) was comprised of mobile users; by 2019, more than 69 percent of the world's population (7.6 billion people) will be mobile users.
  • More mobile connections: By 2019, there will be approximately 11.5 billion mobile-ready devices/connections, including 8.3 billion personal mobile devices and 3.2 billion M2M connections (up from 7.4 billion total mobile-ready devices and M2M connections in 2014).
  • Faster mobile speeds: Average global mobile network speeds will increase 2.4 fold from 2014 (1.7 Mbps) to 2019 (4.0 Mbps).
  • More mobile video: By 2019, mobile video will represent 72 percent of global mobile data traffic (up from 55 percent in 2014).

Impact of Mobile M2M Connections (and Wearable Devices)

  • The number of wearable devices globally will grow five-fold, reaching 578 million by 2019, up from 109 million in 2014, with the majority of devices anticipated in North America and Asia Pacific.
  • This is expected to fuel 18-fold growth in mobile traffic from wearable devices between 2014 and 2019, with most of it channeled through smartphones.
  • In 2014, the average wearable device generated 6X more traffic per month than a basic handset (wearables = 141 MBs mobile traffic/month vs. basic handsets = 22 MBs mobile traffic/month).
  • As an example of a high-end wearables use case, livestreaming of a GoPro video camera on a cellular network would generate about 5 MB of mobile data traffic per minute.
  • In 2014, the average M2M module generated three-times more traffic per month than a basic handset (M2M = 70 MB of mobile traffic/month vs. basic handsets = 22 MB of mobile traffic/month).

Increase in 4G Connectivity

  • 26 percent of all global devices and connections will be 4G capable by 2019.
  • The number of 4G connections globally will grow 18-fold, from 459 million in 2019 to 3 billion by 2019.
  • By 2017, 3G will surpass 2G as the top cellular technology based on connection share.
  • In 2014, 4G connections accounted for 40 percent of total mobile data traffic; by 2019, 4G connections will account for 68 percent of total mobile data traffic.
  • In 2014, the average 4G connection generated 2.2 GB of mobile data traffic per month; by 2019, the average 4G connection will generate 5.5 GB of mobile data traffic per month, 5.3X higher than the 1.04 GB/month for the average non-4G connection.

Wi-Fi Offload Traffic Surpasses Cellular Traffic

  • In 2014, 46 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded; by 2019, 54 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded.
  • Without offload, the 2014 - 2019 global mobile data traffic compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global mobile data traffic would be significantly higher (65 percent instead of 57 percent).

Voice-over-Wi-Fi (VoWi-Fi) Surpasses Voice-over-LTE (VoLTE)

  • By 2017, VoWi-Fi traffic (10.8 PB/year) will exceed VoLTE traffic (10.7 PB/year).
  • By 2018, VoWi-Fi will exceed VoLTE in the number of minutes used per year.
  • By 2019, VoWi-Fi minutes of use will account for more than half – 53 percent – of all mobile IP voice traffic.
  • By 2019, the number of Wi-Fi-capable tablets and PCs (1.9 billion) will be nearly 3.5-times the number of cellular-capable tablets and PCs (542 million).

Growth of Mobile Cloud Traffic

  • Mobile cloud traffic will grow nearly 11-fold from 2014 (2 exabytes/month) to 2019 (21.8 exabytes/month).
  •  In 2014, cloud applications accounted for 81 percent of total mobile data traffic; by 2019, cloud applications will account for 90 percent of total mobile data traffic.



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