Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Ericsson Mobility Report: Big Trends by 2020

Mobile video traffic will continue to grow dramatically, increasing tenfold by 2020 to account for 55 percent of all mobile data traffic, according to the latest Ericsson Mobility Report.  Ericsson is also predicting that nine out of ten people aged six and over will have mobile phones by 2020, when smartphone subscriptions will top 6.1 billion.

"The falling cost of handsets, coupled with improved usability and increasing network coverage, are factors that are making mobile technology a global phenomenon that will soon be available to the vast majority of the world's population, regardless of age or location," said Rima Qureshi, Senior Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer and Head of M&A, Ericsson.

Some highlights:

  • 65-70 percent of all phones sold in the third quarter of 2014 were smartphones, compared with 55 percent in the same quarter for 2013.
  • LTE continues to grow strongly and has reached 350 million subscriptions, with around 50 million additions in Q3 2014.
  • Smartphones currently account for just 37 percent of all mobile phone subscriptions, meaning that many users have yet to make the switch to the more feature-rich, internet-friendly option.
  • WCDMA/HSPA will make up the majority of all subscriptions in 2020, with around 4.4 billion subscriptions, compared to around 3.5 billion LTE subscriptions.
  • Currently in North America, nearly all mobile devices are 3G or 4G, and the only 2G devices that are left are M2M.
  • There are 2.7 billion smartphone subscriptions today
  • In 4G-dominated networks video currently constitutes 45-55 percent of mobile traffic.
  • Mobile data traffic is expected to rise at a CAGR ofaround 40 percent (2014–2020). This will result in an 8-fold increase in traffic by the end of 2020.
  • 5G is expected to be commercially deployed in 2020, and Ericsson predicts it will have a faster uptake than 4G LTE, just as 4G had a faster uptake than 3G. 
  • 5G will encompass evolved versions of existing radio access (such as 3G and 4G), cloud, and core technologies.

This is the seventh issue of the Ericsson Mobility Report, which shares forecast data, analysis and insight into traffic, subscriptions, and consumer behavior to provide insight into current traffic and market trends.
More data is online.