Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Cisco: Global Internet Traffic to Quadruple by 2015

Total global Internet traffic will quadruple by 2015, reaching 966 exabytes per year, nearly a zettabyte, according to the newly released Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast, 2010-2015.

The traffic growth is driven by four primary factors, according to Cisco. They are:

  • An increasing number of devices: Cisco expects that by 2015 there will be nearly 15 billion network connections via devices -- including machine-to-machine -- and more than two connections for each person on earth.

  • More Internet users: By 2015, there will be nearly 3 billion Internet users --more than 40 percent of the world's projected population.

  • Faster broadband speed: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase four-fold, from 7 megabits per second in 2010 to 28 Mbps in 2015. The average broadband speed has already doubled within the past year from 3.5 Mbps to 7 Mbps.

  • More video: By 2015, 1 million video minutes --the equivalent of 674 days -- will traverse the Internet every second.

For this year's report, Cisco used an iterative forecasting model that was more focused on connection metrics (such as sessions and transactions) rather than on consumer metrics.

Some additional highlights of the report:

* Global IP traffic is expected to reach 80.5 exabytes per month by 2015, up from approximately 20.2 exabytes per month in 2010.

* Average global IP traffic in 2015 will reach 245 terabytes per second, equivalent to 200 million people streaming an HD movie (1.2 Mbps) simultaneously every day.

* By 2015, the Asia Pacific region will generate the most IP traffic (24.1 exabytes per month), surpassing last year's leader, North America (22.3 exabytes per month), for the top spot.

* The fastest-growing IP-traffic regions for the forecast period (2010 – 2015) are the Middle East and Africa (which had a 52-percent compound annual growth rate, for an eightfold growth), surpassing last year's leader Latin America (48 percent CAGR, sevenfold growth).

* The global online video community will increase by approximately 500 million users by 2015, up from more than 1 billion Internet video users in 2010.

* In 2010, PCs generated 97 percent of consumer Internet traffic. This will fall to 87 percent by 2015, demonstrating the impact that devices like tablets, smartphones and connected TVs are having on how consumers access and use the Internet.

* Accessing the Internet on Web-enabled TVs continues to grow and by 2015, 10 percent of global consumer Internet traffic and 18 percent of Internet video traffic will be consumed via TVs.

* Global advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase 14 times between 2010 and 2015.

* Global mobile Internet data traffic will increase 26 times from 2010 to 2015, to 6.3 exabytes per month (or 75 exabytes annually).

* By 2015, global peer-to-peer traffic will account for 16 percent of global consumer Internet traffic, down from 40 percent in 2010.

* Business IP video conferencing is projected to grow six fold over the forecast period, growing more than two times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 41 percent from 2010 to 2015.

By 2015, TVs will account for over 18 percent of Internet video traffic, demonstrating the impact of web-enabled TVs as a viable online option for many consumers (bigger screens support better video experiences). This trend also represents the evolution of video on the Internet-from low-quality, short-form content and clips to high-quality, long-form programs and movies.

* Mobile data traffic will be nearly 8 percent of global IP traffic by 2015, growing from 1.2 percent of global IP traffic in 2010.
  • In June 2010, Cisco's Visual Networking Index Forecast predicted that global Internet traffic will increase more than fourfold to 767 exabytes, or more than 3/4 of a Zettabyte, by 2014. Cisco said this growth in traffic would continue to be dominated by video, exceeding 91 percent of global consumer IP traffic by 2014 -- especially HDTV and 3DTV. By 2014, 3-D is forecast to comprise 4 percent of total consumer Internet video traffic, while HDTV will account for 38 percent.

  • In June 2009, Cisco's Visual Networking Index Forecast predicted that global IP traffic will increase fivefold by 2013 driven by expanded usage of interactive media, and the explosion of video content across multiple devices. This would put the total IP traffic volume at 667 Exabytes per year or 56 exabytes per month -- the equivalent of 10 billion DVDs worth of data per month traversing networks.

  • In June 2008, Cisco's Visual Networking Index Forecast predicted that global IP traffic would increase at a combined annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46 percent from 2007 to 2012, nearly doubling every two years -- a six fold increase from 2007 to 2012. This will result in an annual bandwidth demand on the world's IP networks of approximately 522 exabytes, or more than half a zettabyte.


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