Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Research. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Global LTE connections reach 2.37 billion

The global migration from 3G to 4G continues to gather pace. Global LTE connections grew 59 percent from June 2016 to June 2017 reaching 2.37 billion, according to 5G Americas and Ovum, and now constitutes 30% of all cellular connections.

Some highlights:

  • North America achieved 327 million LTE subscriptions by the end of June 2017 with some of the highest penetration rates, most extensive coverage and largest market share for LTE in the world. 
  • Latin America nearly doubled LTE connections to 159 million from 81.5 million year-over-year at 2Q 2017 increasing by 95 percent.
  • New LTE deployments continue and as of mid-August TeleGeography (GlobalComm) reported 551 commercial LTE deployments worldwide, while 206 of those operators have already evolved to LTE-Advanced.
  • Worldwide, LTE is forecast to continue its momentum, reaching over 2.5 billion connections by the end of 2017, 3 billion in 2018 and 4.9 billion connections in 2022. 
  • 5G is expected to accumulate connections starting in 2019 and by 2022, it is forecast to have 389 million connections worldwide.
  • In Latin America, there are now 695 million total mobile wireless subscriptions, of which 159 million were LTE connections; 77.6 million new LTE connections added year-over-year from 2Q 2016.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Cignal AI forecasts 400G Coherent WDM shipments in 2020

Shipments of 400G coherent WDM volume starts to ramp this year, led by Ciena deployments and then followed by other suppliers six to nine months later, according to a newly-published, bi-annual Optical Applications Report report from Cignal AI, an independent research firm based in Boston. The introduction of small form factor 100G and 400G pluggable models will be a major catalyst.

“Cignal AI has close relationships with equipment and component manufacturers, as well as end users, and these relationships give us a unique insight into the optical equipment market.  From this vantage point, we can forecast emerging technologies such as coherent 400G WDM usage,” states Andrew Schmitt, lead analyst for Cignal AI. “Pluggable 400G ZR modules should enter the market by 2019, and they will be the final nail in the coffin for 10G WDM networks.”

Some key findings:

  • Both 100G and 400G coherent will be widely adopted at the edge of the network by the end of 2021.
  • Cisco is growing 100G port deployments faster than all other vendors in the market.
  • Equipment originally designed for DCI applications is rapidly evolving into applications outside the datacenter. Cignal AI is now using "Compact Modular for this class of products.
  • Spending on compact modular equipment more than tripled in the first half of 2017, compared to the same period last year. Ciena, Cisco, and Infinera are the market share and technology leaders for this sector.
  • Revenue for packet-OTN systems grew in the double digits in the first half of 2017, compared to the same period last year.


https://cignal.ai/


Thursday, September 14, 2017

Vertical Systems: Mid-Year 2017 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD

Orange Business Services (France), Colt (U.K.), AT&T (U.S.), Level 3 (U.S.), BT Global Services (U.K.), Verizon (U.S.) and NTT (Japan) hold the top spots (in rank order based on retail port share) in Vertical Systems Group’s Mid-Year 2017 Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD, which ranks companies that hold a 4% or higher share of billable retail ports at sites outside of their respective home countries.

Based on mid-year 2017 port share results, Orange, Colt and AT&T continue to rank as the top three companies on the Global Provider Ethernet LEADERBOARD, respectively. Level 3 moves up to fourth from fifth position, displacing BT Global Services.

The Challenge Tier of Global Providers includes companies with share between 2% and 4% of this defined market. Six companies qualify for the mid-2017 Challenge Tier (in alphabetical order): Cogent (U.S.), SingTel (Singapore), T-Systems (Germany), Tata Communications (India), Telefonica Worldwide (Spain) and Vodafone (U.K.).

“Demand for global Ethernet networking continues to expand. As retail Ethernet providers extend their network footprints through partners worldwide, the growth outlook for wholesale services is increasing,” said Rick Malone, principal at Vertical Systems Group. “Orchestration across multiple provider networks is the top challenge constraining new service deployments, according to our research. This obstacle is being addressed through collaboration among industry players and standards organizations, including efforts to standardize on open APIs and service specifications.”

https://www.verticalsystems.com/vsglb/mid-year-2017-global-provider-ethernet-leaderboard/

Friday, September 1, 2017

Dell'Oro: Spending on Small Cells Starts to Take Off

The Small Cell Radio market continued to be the bright spot during 1H17 — advancing at a double-digit pace — in the otherwise gloomy RAN market, according to a newly published report from Dell'Oro Group.

In rank order, Huawei, Nokia, Ericsson, ZTE, and Samsung accounting for over 90 percent of the Small Cell market in IH17.

“It is no longer a question if carriers are shifting CAPEX from macro to small cells. Now the question is how quick it is happening and what is the impact on vendor shares,” said Stefan Pongratz, Senior Analyst with Dell’Oro Group. “While the pace of small cell growth remains impressive —2Q17 was the sixteenth consecutive quarter of greater than 50 percent year-over-year shipment growth — RAN vendors with macro solutions accounted for more than 90 percent of the combined indoor and outdoor Small Cell market during 1H17. Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson accounted for more than 70 percent of this market during that time,” continued Pongratz.

http://www.delloro.com

Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Kuwait-based Zain Group positions for digital transformation

Kuwait-based Zain Group, which now has operations in eight markets across the Middle East and Africa, has just raised $846 million in cash by selling a 9.8% equity stake to neighboring Omantel. The all-cash deal adds a measure of liquidity to Zain Group, which is aiming to transform itself into a digital service provider as it prepares for 5G and other advanced infrastructure.

Zain Group, which was established in 1983 as Kuwait’s Mobile Telecommunications company, once pursued a very geographically expansionist strategy. In 2005, it acquired mobile operations in 13 African countries from Celtel International for a reported US$3.4 billion, including networks in Burkina Faso, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Niger, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.

Five years later, Zain decided to exit these ventures while making a nice profit on the investment. These African businesses were sold in 2010 to India’s Bharti Airtel for US$10.7 billion.

In 2008, the Zain Group raised US$4.49 billion (by issuing new shares) to support strategic expansion into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Nokia Siemens Networks was awarded a contract valued at US1 billion to rollout the network.

Even now, Nokia continues as a lead vendor to Zain Saudi Arabia, as well as other markets. In May 2017, the companies confirmed the deployment of Nokia’s multi-access edge computing (MEC) platform in Mecca.  A similar installation also uses Nokia centralised RAN technology.to boost network upload speeds at Jeddah's King Abdullah Sports stadium by up to 50%.

Since selling its African operations in 2010, Zain has stayed to closer to home, focusing its external efforts on Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Sudan, South Sudan, and the very important market of Saudi Arabia. Some of these countries, especially Iraq, Sudan, and South Sudan, are beset by social, political and economic issues – but everyone wants/needs mobile connectivity so demand remains strong.

In a management shake-up earlier this year, Zain’s board of directors appointed Mohannad Mohammed Al-Kharafi as the Chairman of Zain Group, Bader Nasser Al-Kharafi as Vice-Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Zain Group, and appointed Scott Gegenheimer in a new role as Chief Executive Officer of Operations. Previously, Gegenheimer, a U.S. citizen, served simply as CEO for all of Zain Group since 2012. Before joining Zain, Gegenheimer held leadership positions at several regional operators, as well as with Cisco Systems and Motorola.

At the end of June 2017, Zain Group counted 45.2 million customers. The breakdown by country is roughly as follows:
Iraq 27%
Sudan 27%
KSA 23%
Jordan 9%
Kuwait 6%
Lebanon 5%
Bahrain 2%

Declining revenue and EBITDA for the first half of 2017

Earlier this month, Zain Group consolidated first half 2017 revenues of KD 508 million (US$1.67 billion) down 8% year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in KD terms. The Group’s consolidated EBITDA for the period reached KD 212 million (US$695 million), down 17% Y-o-Y in KD terms, reflecting an EBITDA margin of 41.7%. Consolidated net income remained stable at KD 82 million (US$270 million). Earnings per share for the half-year stood at 21 Fils (US$0.07).   Overall, the company described its financial performance as “in line with expectations” while acknowledging the impact of a significant 61% currency devaluation in Sudan and other factors. (the company says Zain Sudan continues to perform ‘exceptionally well’ in local currency terms),

Some key items and indicators

Data revenues for the group (excluding SMS and VAS) increased 4% Y-o-Y, representing 25% of the consolidated revenues.

Zain launched an over-the-top, streaming video service called “iflix” across several markets. This follows the announcement earlier in the year that Zain and iflix had formed a joint venture entity named ‘iflix Arabia' to be headquartered in Dubai. The JV will trade commercially as “iflix”, adding Zain’s territories of operation to iflix’s global footprint, including Kuwait, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Sudan, with the potential to further extend into additional regional markets. The content catalogue will include highly acclaimed Arabic shows and movies, exclusive Arabic content series, best titles from Hollywood and Bollywood, local programming and children’s shows.

In its home market of Kuwait, Zain’s customer base stands at 2.6 million. Kuwait remains the Group’s most profitable operation with revenues reaching KD 167 million (USD 549 million), EBITDA amounting to KD 66 million (USD 215 million) and net income came in at KD 39 million (USD 128 million). Zain Kuwait’s EBITDA margin stood at 39% at the end of the six-month period, with data revenues (excluding SMS & VAS) accounting for 32% of total revenues.

Zain Kuwait is currently implementing a smart meter project, in one of the sector’s largest ICT projects for the country’s Ministry of Electricity and Water. The Smart Meter project, which runs through 2024, is a key step in the company's strategic plans to deploy smart city solutions in Kuwait and beyond. Ericsson has been selected as the sole technology partner in the Zain led consortium.

In June 2017, Zain launched Cloud Disaster Recovery (Cloud DR) service in Kuwait in collaboration with IBM. The new service provides Zain’s enterprise customers with cloud-based business continuity capabilities and faster disaster recovery of their critical IT systems.

In Saudi Arabia, Zain reports improved financial indicators thanks to a turnaround and cost optimisation program. In H1, 2017, the operator recorded its first-ever half yearly net profit of USD 14 million, compared to net losses USD 154 million in H1 2016. Revenues for the period were up by 9%, reaching USD 1.04 billion. The company recorded a significant 59% increase in EBITDA to reach USD 346 million in H1 2017.

Zain noted that the introduction of a biometric identification requirement for mobile services caused its total customer base to shrink by 15% to stand at 9 million customers at the end of June 2017. Impressively, the operator witnessed a 42% rise in data revenues (excluding SMS and VAS) Y-o-Y, representing 50% of total revenues.  

During Q2, Zain KSA also successfully secured an additional 1800MHz spectrum for expansion of its4.5G LTE network's coverage and capacity.

In January 2017, Zain Group appointed Peter Kaliaropoulos, an Australian national, as CEO of Zain Saudi Arabia. Previously, Kaliaropoulos was the GM of ‘touch’ Lebanon until June 2016, the country’s leading operator that Zain manages on behalf of the Lebanon Telecom Ministry

In Iraq, Zain managed to achieve US$523 million revenues due to the impressive growth in data usage and numerous customer acquisition initiatives in the northern regions of the country. The operation’s efficiency drive saw EBITDA reach USD 179 million, reflecting a 34% EBITDA margin. Net income amounted to USD 11 million for the period. Zain Iraq leads the market serving 12.9 million customers, which represented an impressive 15% Y-o-Y increase.

In Sudan, the 61% currency devaluation this year impacted financial results as measured in USD terms for the first six months of 2017. Nevertheless, in local currency (SDG) terms, revenues grew by 38% Y-o-Y to reach SDG 3.4 billion (USD 213 million, down 44% in USD terms) for the first six months of 2017. EBITDA increased by 22% to reach SDG 1.3 billion (USD 81 million, down 50% in USD terms), and net income increased by 14% to SDG 545 million (USD 34 million, down 54% in USD terms). Data revenues (excluding SMS and VAS) accounted for 15% of total revenues, with an impressive annual growth rate of 69%. The operation saw its customer base expand 3% to reach 12.9 million.

In Jordan, Zain grew its customer base by 3% Y-o-Y, serving 4.2 million customers at the end of June, and maintaining its market leading position despite intense price competition. Y-o-Y revenues increased 2% to reach US$241 million, with EBITDA up 1% to reach USD 116 million, reflecting an impressive 48% EBITDA margin. Net income decreased 5% to USD 48 million for the six-month period. With the continual expansion of 4G services across the country, data revenues (excluding SMS & VAS) represented 37% of total revenues, up by 15% Y-o-Y.

In Bahrain, Zain generated revenues of USD 100 million for the first six months of 2017, up 17% Y-o-Y. EBITDA for the period amounted to USD 30 million, down 8%, reflecting an EBITDA margin of 30%. Net income amounted to USD 4 million, reflecting a 21% decrease. Data revenues (excluding SMS & VAS) increased 36% Y-o-Y, representing 43% of overall revenues.

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Crehan: Data Center Ethernet Switch Market is Hot

Sales of data center Ethernet switches saw the strongest growth in five years during the second quarter of 2017, with year-over-year growth of fourteen percent, according to the latest report from Crehan Research Inc.

“2Q17 was a particularly strong quarter for data center Ethernet switching, as customers responded very favorably to the many compelling products that have arrived on the market,” said Seamus Crehan, president of Crehan Research. “These switches not only have significantly improved price performance, but also additional visibility, programmability, security, and automation capabilities, enabling customers to handle a diversity of data center networking workloads at scale in a more cost effective and simpler way.”

In addition to stellar overall market growth during the quarter, notable results from Crehan’s data center switch report include:

  • Juniper Networks had the strongest growth in data center switching revenues, with a 60% year-over-year increase.
  • In the modular data center switch segment – which is most indicative of aggregation/spine deployments –100GbE shipments surpassed 40GbE shipments 
  • Arista Networks accounted for the largest share in 100GbE data center switch shipments.
  • Cisco Systems continues to drive the growth in 25GbE data center switching, with its Cloud Scale Nexus 9000 platform comprising the vast majority of total 25GbE market shipments.
  • Despite the strong 25GbE increase, 10GbE shipments continued to show robust growth, with overall data center switch shipments increasing in excess of 10% year-over-year on the strength
  • of very healthy 10GBASE-T adoption in both enterprise and service provider data center networks.

The strong initial adoption of 25GbE and 100GbE data center switches is in keeping with Crehan’s January 2017 long-range forecast, which noted that 25GbE and 100GbE were expected to ramp rapidly and comprise over half of all shipments by 2021.

http://www.crehanresearch.com

Sunday, August 20, 2017

Private Interconnection bandwidth is growing at a 45% CAGR

In reading the Q2 financial reports of leading global carrier, cloud companies, semiconductor fabricators and network equipment vendors, one might be tempted to think that we are in a period of single-digit growth overall, except for certain hot areas, like the public cloud or AI-enhanced anything. On a financial level, this might be the case but in terms of network traffic the industry is still booming.

Cisco’s 2017 Visual Networking Index (VNI), which is widely seen as a leading source for tracking network usage, recently predicted that global IP traffic will increase three-fold from 2016 – 2021, reaching an annual run rate of 3.3 zettabytes by 2021, up from 1.2 zettabytes in 2016, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) or 24%. A year earlier, the same study predicted that global IP traffic would grow at a CAGR of 22% over the 2015-2020 period as more than a billion new Internet users come online and new applications take hold.

Whether a 24% or 22% CAGR, it’s clear from the Cisco study that significant growth continues – and perhaps is even accelerating – in overall Internet traffic. Equinix, the world’s leading co-location data centre operator, is now predicting that Interconnection Bandwidth will grow at a 35% CAGR – notably faster than Internet traffic as a whole. Specifically, the first release of the Equinix Global Interconnection Index, predicts that by 2020 Interconnection Bandwidth between private enterprises will grow to over 5,000 Tbps, a fourfold increase from 2016 with double-digit growth across all industries and use cases.

Defining Interconnection Bandwidth

Equinix defines Interconnection Bandwidth as the total capacity provisioned privately to directly exchange traffic with other parties at distributed IT exchange points. In practical terms, this means cross-connects in a colocation or Internet exchange facility, or private connections between companies either over a private-line provisioned by a carrier or dark fiber.

Equinix, which operates a fleet of 182 co-location data centres in 44 markets worldwide, is in a prime position to measure interconnection bandwidth given its long list of Fortune 1000 clients. Its Global Interconnection Index summarizes data from its own operations as well as from other carrier-neutral colocation data center providers.

For Service Providers specializing in enterprise networking, the study provides food for thought. While interconnection bandwidth is predicted to have a 35% CAGR, the predicted growth for MPLS is only 4%. If Equinix is correct, companies in 2020 will be using private interconnections for exchanging much of their data rather than asking the MPLS provider to provision spurs to their partners.

Key trends at Equinix In its Q2 financial report, Equinix posted quarterly revenues of $1,066 million, up 18% year-over-year and up 11% year-over-year on a normalized and constant currency basis. Operating revenues were $185 million, an 11% increase over the previous quarter.

During Q2, Equinix completed its acquisition of Verizon’s 29 data centers. The transaction, which was valued at $3.6 billion in cash, included over 1,000 customers, of which over 600 were new to Equinix, and approximately three million gross square feet of data center space. The 29 data centers are located across 15 cities in North and Latin America, three markets of which are new to Equinix (Bogota, Culpepper and Houston). This brought Equinix's total global footprint to approximately 17 million gross square feet.

Significantly, Equinix boasts that it now serves 42% of the Fortune 500 and 30% of the Global 2000. Furthermore, Equinix said its interconnection revenues in Q2 grew 24% year-over-year and 17% year-over-year on a normalized and constant currency basis, significantly outpacing colocation revenues. Cross-connects between customers increased to over 242,000. The Equinix Cloud Exchange continues to expand with connections into AWS, Microsoft Azure and Salesforce from new markets.

Some highlights of the Equinix Global Interconnection Index

Regional trends 



Use cases



By industry




Download the full Equinix Global Interconnection Index here:
http://www.equinix.com/resources/whitepapers/global-interconnection-index/

See Converge Digest 2-minute video with Equinix’s Tony Bishop
https://youtu.be/QKx8jWAfE64



Saturday, August 19, 2017

Vertical Systems: Mid-Year 2017 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD

AT&T tops Vertical Systems Group's U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD results for Mid-Year 2017.

The following eight companies achieved LEADERBOARD status (rank order based on retail port share): AT&T, Level 3, Verizon (includes XO), Spectrum Enterprise, CenturyLink, Comcast, Windstream and Cox.

To qualify for the LEADERBOARD, providers must have four percent (4%) or more of the U.S. Ethernet services market. Shares are measured by the number of customer ports in service as tracked by Vertical Systems Group, with input from surveys of Ethernet providers.

"While the pace of growth has slowed from the market ramp years, demand for Carrier Ethernet services remains very strong in 2017," said Rick Malone, principal at Vertical Systems Group. "The revenue and profitability outlooks for many providers are improving as fiber buildouts are completed and pricing begins to stabilize."

Key results of the Mid-Year 2017 U.S. Carrier Ethernet share analysis:

  • Verizon advances to third from fourth position on the LEADERBOARD with the addition of Ethernet ports from its acquisition of XO, which was completed in February 2017. (XO was ranked seventh overall at the end of 2016.)
  • As a result, Spectrum Enterprise moves to fourth from third position on the LEADERBOARD.
  • Frontier advances to the Challenge Tier, up from the Market Player tier.
  • Level 3 is the only remaining Competitive Provider on the LEADERBOARD, which also includes four Incumbent Carriers (AT&T, Verizon, CenturyLink, Windstream) and three Cable MSOs (Spectrum Enterprise, Comcast, Cox).
  • All Ethernet providers ranked on the Mid-Year 2017 U.S. Carrier Ethernet LEADERBOARD are also represented on Vertical Systems Group's 2016 U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD.

Other providers selling Ethernet services in the U.S. are segmented into two tiers as measured by port share. The first or Challenge Tier includes providers with between 1% and 4% share of the U.S. retail Ethernet market. For Mid-Year 2017, the following companies attained a position in the Challenge Tier (in alphabetical order): Altice USA, Cogent, Sprint, Frontier and Zayo.

The second or Market Player tier includes all providers with port share below 1%. Companies in the Market Player tier include the following providers (in alphabetical order): Alaska Communications, Alpheus Communications, American Telesis, Birch Communications, BT Global Services, Cincinnati Bell, Consolidated Communications, DQE Communications, Expedient, FairPoint, FiberLight, FirstLight, Global Cloud Xchange, Great Plains Communications, GTT, Hawaiian Telecom, Lightower, Logix, LS Networks, Lumos Networks, Masergy, Midco, NTT America, Orange Business, RCN Business, Tata, TDS Telecom, Telstra, TPx Communications, Unite Private Networks, US Signal, WOW!Business and other companies selling retail Ethernet services in the U.S. market.

https://www.verticalsystems.com/vsglb/mid-year-2017-u-s-carrier-ethernet-leaderboard/

Dell'Oro: WLAN market bolstered by cloud subscriptions

Migration to higher-end and Cloud-managed products will bolster the Wireless LAN market between now and 2021, according to a newly released market forecast report by Dell’Oro Group, which predicts that average prices will rise with user adoption of new technologies and Cloud subscription licenses

“The trend is clear—users are willing to pay a premium for higher-performance WiFi experience,” said Trent Dell’Oro, Business Analyst at Dell’Oro Group. “Over the past several quarters average prices have been rising on like-for-like class of products. For example, upgrades to 802.11ac Wave 2, and NBASE-T have been contributing to rising average prices. We predict the trend will continue in 2018 and beyond as 802.11ax products become widely available. What we found most interesting is the impact Cloud-managed subscription license will have on average prices over the long run. By the fourth year of the forecast, the compounded income from licenses will be a significant contribution,” added Dell’Oro.

The Wireless LAN 5-Year Forecast Report highlights other key trends, including:

  • A discussion on the role 5G may play in Enterprise Campus networking.
  • An analysis of Enterprise Campus networking trends for wired Ethernet and Wireless LAN.
  • Cloud-managed Wireless LAN forecast by access points versus subscription licenses.
  • An in-depth analysis on the adoption of 802.11ax, at different price thresholds.


http://www.delloro.com/news/higher-end-cloud-managed-product-migration-bolster-wireless-lan-market-according-delloro-group

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Interconnection Bandwidth Growing Faster than the Internet



Interconnection bandwidth is growing at a 45% compound annual growth rate, significantly faster than the expansion of Internet bandwidth (24% CAGR) or MPLS (4% CAGR), accounding to a newly released Global Interconnection Index from Equinix.

In this video, Tony Bishop, VP of Global Enterprise Vertical Strategy & Marketing at Equinix, introduces the Index, predicting that by 2020 interconnection bandwidth will have reached more than 5,000 Tbps of installed capacity.

Download the Equinix Global Interconnection Index at:

http://www.equinix.com/interconnection-enables-the-digital-economy/


Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Dell'Oro forecasts G.fast revenue growth of 600% in '19

According to its latest Broadband Access 5-year Forecast Report from Dell’Oro Group, G.fast revenue growth is set to increase by almost 600% in 2019 as operators complete testing and trials of G.fast amendment 3 chipsets and systems.

While the market for G.fast has been slow to develop initially, Dell'Oro predicts that 2019 will be the year when G.fast sees significant adoption, which will then have a knock-on effect on the future development of broadband access markets worldwide, including based on PON, DSL and cable/coax technology.

Dell'oro expects that momentum in the G.fast market will continue through the 5-year forecast period, and anticipates that G.fast revenue will account for more than a third of the overall DSL market by 2021.


Commenting on the report, Alam Tamboli, senior analyst at Dell’Oro, said, "Operators are holding off on massive deployments throughout their networks until they have more hands-on time with amendment 3 chipsets and systems, which will be available in early 2018… furthermore, many operators that wish to deploy G.fast into larger buildings via FTTB architectures are waiting for 32 or higher port-count units to be tested more thoroughly".

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

MeriTalk: federal agencies planning to adopt converged infrastructure

MeriTalk, a public-private partnership focused on improving the outcomes of government IT, has announced the results of its latest report, Converged: At the Core of IT All, which examines federal agencies' plans for implementing converged infrastructure solutions to address data centre demands.

The MeriTalk study, underwritten by Cisco and NetApp, finds that 59% of federal agencies are adopting to converged infrastructure solutions as part of their current data centre strategies, while 23% have multiple converged solutions in place. Based on a five-year outlook, the study finds that the average federal agency has a target of transforming 55% of data centres to converged infrastructure solutions by 2022.

MeriTalk notes that modern mission demands are changing the way the government delivers data centre solutions, which is prompting the shift to converged infrastructure. Currently, the study reveals that 72% of federal IT managers believe converged infrastructures will become the central housing mechanism for their data centre needs.

In terms of drivers for the move to invest in converged infrastructures, the study finds that while cost savings are a significant factor, current users of converged systems also cite improved data protection, increased scalability and optimising mission-critical apps as key motivators for the deployment of the new technology.

In addition, MeriTalk notes that converged infrastructures align with the Data Center Optimization Initiative (DCOI), as 60% of agencies leverage converged infrastructure to replace working data centres.

However, the study shows that although 57% of current converged users experience growth in operational efficiency, issues remain relating to security, budget and interoperability concerns. In particular, 44% of federal IT managers cite security concerns as the main disincentive to the adoption of a converged infrastructure solution.

The full report, Converged: At the Core of IT All, can be downloaded here: https://www.meritalk.com/study/converged-at-the-core-of-it-all/(registration required).

Regarding the study, Rob Stein, VP, U.S. public sector, at NetApp, said, "The road to an integrated IT system should not be a daunting one… most (existing) data centres and related systems cannot keep up with the growing amount of data within federal agencies… integrating all the pieces of the data centre together radically simplifies data management, especially in the new hybrid cloud world".


Wednesday, August 2, 2017

AT&T Tops U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD

AT&T topped the newly released U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD from  Vertical Systems Group based on results for year-end 2016.

Eleven companies attained a position on the 2016 U.S. Fiber Lit Buildings LEADERBOARD as follows (in rank order by number of fiber lit buildings): AT&T, Verizon, Spectrum Enterprise, CenturyLink, Comcast, Level 3, Cox, Lightower, Zayo, Altice USA and Frontier.

Retail and wholesale fiber providers with 10,000 or more on-net fiber lit commercial buildings in the U.S. qualify for this new benchmark.

“On-net fiber lit buildings are valued strategic assets that give retail and wholesale providers a competitive edge in profitably delivering services to business customers. A major benefit of a fiber lit building is ready connectivity with provisioning through service orchestration, without the construction cost and extensive lead time required to light a building,” said Rosemary Cochran, principal at Vertical Systems Group. “These dynamics are driving this year’s acquisitions among fiber providers that will significantly impact the U.S. fiber landscape. Eighteen of the twenty-eight Fiber LEADERBOARD and Challenge Tier companies have fiber-related transactions just completed or pending.”

The Challenge Tier of providers includes companies with lit fiber connections to between 2,000 and 9,999 U.S. commercial buildings. Seventeen companies qualified for the 2016 Fiber Lit Buildings Challenge Tier as follows (in alphabetical order): Cincinnati Bell, Cleareon, Cogent, Consolidated Communications, Electric Lightwave, Fairpoint, FiberLight, FiberNet Direct, FirstLight, IFN, Lumos, Southern Light, Sunesys, Unite Private Networks, Uniti Fiber, Windstream and XO.

https://www.verticalsystems.com/vsglb/u-s-fiber-lit-buildings-leaderboard/

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Analysys Mason evaluates Telefónica's UNICA NFV/SDN

Telefonica, serving around 346 million accesses in 21 countries, announced that Analysys Mason, the global consultancy and research firm, has released a white paper commissioned by Telefónica that evaluates progress in implementing its Telco Cloud program, which includes UNICA, the foundational architecture designed to support future networks based on network function virtualisation and software-defined networking (NFV/SDN) technologies.

Telefonica noted that the paper covers its progress with the telco cloud initiative from its launch as an innovation project through to its current status with live deployments in Germany, Argentina, Colombia and Peru. Telefonica launched its UNICA program around four years ago.

The Analysys Mason study identifies Telefónica as amongst the first operator to see the potential of incorporating cloud technologies, general-purpose hardware and a programmable network control plane into its network architecture. Telefónica envisages eventually implementing a network that is fully virtualised and programmable that will enable it to efficiently and flexibly align capacity with demand, reduce network complexity and speed new services delivery.

The Analysys Mason study finds that Telefonica's UNICA platform features a well-founded architecture that does not compromise on the original ETSI NFV principles, specifically: independence from vendor-lock-in at all layers of the architecture; the use of commodity and, where possible, open-source, cloud technologies; and encouraging market innovation through sponsorship of open-source communities.

However, the research firm concludes that Telefónica faces two key challenges in implementing a program as large and advanced as UNICA - technology challenges associated with market immaturity and challenges around the organisational, cultural and process transformations needed to implement UNICA at scale.

To address these challenges, Analysys Mason recommends that Telefónica increase dialogue with business stakeholders to demonstrate the potential of UNICA and that it prioritise internal operational and organisational transformations to prepare its operating businesses from a technology perspective to effectively use the UNICA infrastructure.

The full Analysys Mason study, Telefónica's UNICA architecture strategy for network virtualisation, can be downloaded here:


Monday, July 24, 2017

Dell'Oro Forecasts 400 Gbit/s switch market

In the latest Ethernet Switch - Data Center 5-year Forecast Report from Dell’Oro Group, the research firm forecasts that the market for 400 Gbit/s switches will ramp strongly starting in 2019, while from 2020, 25 and 100 Gbit/s will account for more than half of the data centre switch port shipments.

Dell'Oro reports that the second half of 2016 saw the beginning of a major speed upgrade cycle in the data centre based on 25 Gigabit Ethernet SerDes technology, with shipments of 25 and 100 Gbit/s reaching hundreds of thousands of ports per quarter despite supply constraints on 100 Gigabit Ethernet optical transceivers. Adoption of 25/100 Gbit/s is predicted to accelerate in 2017 and to comprise over half of data centre switching ports within only 4 years of initial shipments.
Dell'Oro notes that the rapid growth will be driven by a low price premium over preceding 10 and 40 Gbit/s port speeds as well as switch vendors consolidating their products to provide fewer speed options.

In its separate Ethernet Switch - Layer 2+3 5-year Forecast Report, Dell'Oro forecasts that the overall Ethernet switch market will grow to exceed $28 billion in 2021, driven by factors including speed upgrades, software-defined networking and subscription-based models.


Dell'Oro expects that the Ethernet switch market will remain robust over the next 5 years, with revenue and shipment growth driven primarily by the data centre segment, while the campus switching market is forecast to continue to be soft due partly to cannibalisation from WLAN.

Friday, July 21, 2017

Dell'Oro estimates cumulative $6bn 5G RAN market to '21

Dell'Oro Group finds in its latest Mobile RAN 5-year Forecast Report that while overall RAN market conditions are expected to remain challenging in the near-term, growing adoption of LTE small cells and 5G macro technologies will drive a return to market growth towards the end of the forecast period, and predicts that cumulative 5G RAN investment will exceed $6 billion by 2021.

Further highlights from Dell'Oro's mobile RAN forecast report include:

1.         LTE and 5G small cell RAN revenue is expected to increase 4-fold over the forecast period to 2021.

2.         Millimetre-wave technology is expected to account for less than 5% of the overall 5G equipment market by 2021.

3.         Almost half of 5G RAN market revenue will feature C-RAN and cloud-RAN architectures by 2021.

Dell'Oro notes that cumulative revenue for the total RAN market between 2017 and 2021 looks set to experience the weakest five-year period since it began tracking the market in 2000.

Regarding the report, Stefan Pongratz, senior director at Dell'Oro Group, said:

"A stronger focus than initially envisioned on the sub-3 and -6 GHz 5G macro layers, coupled with a robust outlook for LTE small cells, form the basis for a more optimistic view of the overall RAN market in the outer part of the forecast".

"Although the IoT impact on the RAN market remains highly uncertain, the demand for enhanced mobile broadband is expected to remain robust, resulting in strong 5G macro uptake in the advanced mobile broadband markets, with China, Japan, Korea, and North America accounting for more than 90% of the 5G market by (2021)".


Thursday, July 20, 2017

Dell'Oro forecasts microwave transmission market of $3.8bn by '21

According to the latest Microwave Transmission & Mobile Backhaul 5-year Forecast Report from Dell'Oro Group, the microwave transmission and mobile backhaul markets will continue to contract for another two years before returning to growth in 2019.

Dell'Oro expects that from 2019 market growth will be driven by the increasing use of outdoor small cells and the ramp of large-scale 5G mobile radio deployments.

Further highlights from Dell'Oro's microwave transmission and mobile backhaul forecast report include:

1.  Due to the demands of small cell deployments and the capacity requirements of 5G mobile radios fibre and copper will account for a higher share of the market for backhaul links in the future.

2.  The overall market for small cell backhaul equipment utilising fibre, copper or wireless technologies is forecast to reach $1.6 billion by 2021.

3.  The microwave transmission market is projected to total $3.8 billion by 2021, with mobile backhaul constituting approximately 70% of this revenue.

Regarding the report, Jimmy Yu, VP at Dell'Oro Group, commented, "It will likely continue to be a difficult environment for mobile backhaul equipment sales for the next two years… however, I see light at the end of the tunnel, and if (this forecast is) correct and the mobile backhaul market resumes growth in 2019, I believe that market revenue can rise to at least $5.5 billion by 2021".

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Dell'Oro forecasts WDM revenue of $14bn by '21

In the new Optical Transport 5-year Forecast Report from Dell'Oro Group, the WDM market revenue is forecast to grow to $14 billion by 2021, driven by the demand for 100+ Gbit/s coherent wavelengths, while the total optical transport equipment market, including WDM, multi-service multiplexers and optical switches, is projected to reach $15 billion.

Highlights from Dell'Oro's latest optical transport report include:

1. Demand for WDM metro equipment is expected to outpace that for DWDM long haul over the next five years, with the average annualised revenue growth rate over the period for WDM metro equipment projected to be approximately three-times that for DWDM long haul.
2. 100+ Gbit/s coherent wavelengths will constitute approximately 90% of the overall WDM equipment market in terms of revenue by 2021.

3. Enterprise direct purchasing for data centre interconnect (DCI) will significantly influence the WDM market, with WDM-based DCI equipment revenue forecast to be reach $2.4 billion by 2021.

Commenting on the report, Jimmy Yu, VP at Dell'Oro Group, said, "Demand for coherent wavelengths running at speeds of 100 Gbit/s and higher is expected to grow at a solid pace for the next five years… specifically, I predict a large ramp in demand for 200 Gbit/s coherent wavelengths and forecast shipments of these line cards to grow at an 85% compounded annual growth rate".

Monday, July 17, 2017

Healthy growth continues for public cloud data centre infrastructure

The global market for IT infrastructure products continues to be reshaped by rapid buildouts of hyperscale data centres for public clouds. Ahead of a busy mid-summer week for data centre server announcements, several analyst studies have been released that shed light on how the market for server, storage and Ethernet switch products continues to evolve. Overall, this market grew 14.9% year over year in the first quarter of 2017 (1Q17), reaching $8 billion, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker. This two-digit annual growth figure compares quite favourably to the global market for telecom equipment, which has been trapped in the doldrums of low single digits for some time to the detriment of the big vendors focused on this segment.

In the case of Ericsson, the company has attempted to pivot toward the enterprise and data centre segments through a strategic partnership with Cisco. With the new management team at Ericsson, this push appears to be taking a backseat as the company focuses on its core mobile infrastructure market.

Here are the vendor market share highlights from IDC’s study:

Top 3 Vendor Group, Worldwide Cloud IT Infrastructure Vendor Revenue, Q1 2017 
(Revenues are in Millions, Excludes double counting of storage and servers)
Vendor Group
1Q17 Revenue (US$M)
1Q17 Market Share
1Q16 Revenue (US$M)
1Q16 Market Share
1Q17/1Q16 Revenue Growth
1. Dell Inc*
$1,289
16.20%
$1,292
18.60%
-0.20%
1. HPE/New H3C Group* **
$1,118
14.00%
$1,223
17.70%
-8.60%
3. Cisco
$902
11.30%
$830
12.00%
8.70%
ODM Direct
$1,976
24.80%
$1,204
17.40%
64.10%
Others
$2,678
33.60%
$2,379
34.30%
12.60%
Total
$7,963
100%
$6,928
100%
14.90%
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker, June 2017

* IDC declares a statistical tie in the worldwide cloud IT infrastructure market when there is a difference of one percent or less in the vendor revenue shares among two or more vendors.
** Due to the existing joint venture between HPE and the New H3C Group, IDC will be reporting external market share on a global level for HPE as "HPE/New H3C Group" starting from Q2 2016 and going forward.

In its study, IDC found that cloud IT infrastructure sales as a share of overall worldwide IT spending climbed to 39% in 1Q17, a significant increase from 33.9% a year ago. IDC also found that revenue from infrastructure sales to private cloud grew by 6.0% to $3.1 billion, and to public cloud by 21.7% to $4.8 billion.

What is interesting here is that the hyperscale cloud providers, including Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure and Alibaba Cloud, have each reported much higher growth rates, approaching or exceeding the triple digit threshold. This would be a healthy situation for the cloud operators, indicating that they are getting greater efficiency from their infrastructure.

The IDC study also confirms that enterprise spending continues to move to clouds, both public and private. IDC found that revenue in the traditional (non-cloud) IT infrastructure segment decreased 8.0% year over year in the first quarter of the year, but that spending for private cloud infrastructure is growing, especially Ethernet switching (up 15.5% year-over-year), storage (excluding double counting with servers at 10.0%) and server (up 2.1% year-over-year. Public cloud growth was led by storage, which after heavy declines in 1Q16 grew 49.5% year over year in 1Q17, followed by Ethernet switch at 22.7% and server at 8.7%. IDC further notes that for traditional IT deployments, sales of servers declined the most (9.3% year over year), with Ethernet switch and storage declining 4.4% and 6.1%, respectively.

Gartner finds standalone worldwide server market is declining, except hyperscale
A Gartner study that focused only on the sale of servers found that Q1 2017 revenue worldwide declined 4.5% year over year, while shipments fell 4.2% from the first quarter of 2016. Jeffrey Hewitt, research VP at Gartner, noted, "Although purchases in the hyperscale data centre segment have been increasing, the enterprise and SMB segments remain constrained as end users in these segments accommodate their increased application requirements through virtualisation and consider cloud alternatives".

Below are highlights of the Gartner study that were published in June 2017:

Worldwide Server Vendor Revenue Estimates -  1Q17 (US Dollars)
Company
1Q17
1Q17 Market Share (%)
1Q16
1Q16 Market Share (%)
1Q17-1Q6 Growth (%)
Revenue
Revenue
HPE
3,009,569,241
24.1
3,296,591,967
25.2
-8.7
Dell EMC
2,373,171,860
19
2,265,272,258
17.3
4.8
IBM
831,622,879
6.6
1,270,901,371
9.7
-34.6
Cisco
825,610,000
6.6
850,230,000
6.5
-2.9
Lenovo
731,647,279
5.8
871,335,542
6.7
-16
Others
4,737,196,847
37.9
4,537,261,457
34.7
4.4
Total
12,508,818,106
100
13,091,592,596
100
-4.5
Source: Gartner (June 2017).

Nutanix, which offers a hyperscale solution integrating compute/storage/networking, recently reported that its quarterly revenue jumped 67% to reach $191.8 million for the quarter ended April 30, 2017. Its customers fit into the enterprise category. Cited examples include Caterpillar, KYOCERA Communication Systems, MobileIron, SAIC Volkswagen and Société Générale. From this one can conclude that market is shifting rapidly from stand-alone or departmental clusters of servers to an enterprise cloud architecture, whether public, private or hybrid. The distinctions between servers, switches and storage are also blurring.

Dell’Oro tracks white box server shipments

White box server shipments continued to grow at a rapid pace in 1Q17, increasing 41% year on year, according to a recently published report from Dell’Oro Group.  This research agency attributes the surge in spending to mainly Google and Amazon, with Facebook and Microsoft expected to pick up the pace of their white box server deployments too. Dell'Oro noted that nearly all the major U.S.-based branded vendors, led by Hewlett-Packard Enterprise and Dell Technologies, suffered quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year shipment declines for a number of different reasons, including: server migration from the Enterprise/on premise to the Cloud; typical Q1 softness; and a pause in server purchases in anticipation of the Intel Purley server refresh cycle, which is expected in the second half of the year.

These trends are probably best recorded in the sales data for Intel's Xeon products, which continue to dominate all segments of the market. More details on Intel’s plans for the data centre are expected later this week.



See also