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Top 10 Trends at 3GSM World Congress 2007, Barcelona

by Roman Polz, Senior Marketing Manager of the Mobility Division

     
2/12/2007

To help you make the most out of your visit to the Feb. 12-15th 3GSM World Congress, I have researched during the past weeks the latest trends, news, and intrigue involving the wireless industry.

From that research I have prepared what I believe are the Top 10 most important trends in the wireless industry. I have done this so attendees can have a focused list in their minds and hands be supplied with an intelligent approach for gaining maximum value out of their business trips to Spain.

If you are not going to Barcelona, this list remains valuable as an executive-summary-like update of what's the latest and greatest in wireless.


Top 10 Trends to Watch for at the Upcoming 3GSM World Congress

Trend Number One: Answering the Question About Why WiMAX

Mobile WiMAX technology continues to gain momentum as a viable technology to integrate with 4G and IMT-Advance radio standards. Many operators around the world will begin performing limited deployments in 2007 of WiMAX wave 1 mobile terminals. One reason for this is because its data rates are similar to the newly deployed HSDPA rates while offering greater mobility than WLAN solutions.

Proclaimed benefits of WiMAX include reduced network operational costs, extended coverage range, and improved spectrum efficiency. The validity of these claims will bear fruit--or not--over the next year. With over three hundred and eighty WiMAX Forum member companies, the industry is making a significant bet on OFDM being the wireless modulation technology of the future. Any doubt about how many people find WiMAX attractive should vanish given this enormous amount of support.

Trend Number Two: Let the Music Play

Music has emerged during the past 12 months as an undeniable hot application for cell phones. For the past several months major providers of wireless services, cell phones, and chips for cell phones have announced products enabling high-quality music in cell phones.

For example, entry-level EDGE cell phone platforms equipped with CD-quality music (as good as a portable music player) have been announced during the past few months. Look for more of these announcements at the show.

The statistics proving this musical momentum are impressive. Eight hundred and thirty five--that's not a typo--music cell phone models are expected to be introduced by various competitors this year, according to iSuppli. Also this year, shipments of music-enabled cell phones will increase to 618 million units, according to iSuppli. That number amounts to more than half of the estimated one billion cell phones shipped last year.

The 618 million marks an increase of 39 percent from 441 million units shipped last year, according to iSuppli. By the year 2010 the analyst firm estimates shipments of such cell phones will increase to one billion units.

Trend Number Three: Thin Is In

A fashion trend in the cell phone industry during the past year has centered on extremely thin cell phones. Samsung introduced a range of cell phones this year that are the industry's thinnest in their form factors. Other cell phone manufacturers are likely to unveil super-thin handsets during the show given the popularity of these phones.

Trend Number Four: Whole New Product Category of Mobile Content Servers

You will likely see at the show new types of devices that converge storage and wireless technologies. These will enable mobile users for the first time to share and stream music, video and business files to or from electronic devices ranging from cell phones, PCs, digital cameras, game machines, DSL routers and more.

These types of devices represent a new product category that un-tethers users from the PC and stationary storage devices. As open systems these devices make possible easy interaction with other ecosystems and consumer devices compared with single function, PC-centric devices. Look for products like this at the show.

Trend Number Five: Long Live 2.5G EDGE and GPRS

The lifespan of 2.5G EDGE and GPRS cell phones, you will notice at the show, has at least until the year 2010 before it starts to show noticeable signs of decline. So all this hype about 3G and 4G you hear about will be good to keep abreast of. But notice how much buzz permeates the event about 2.5G and GPRS cell phones particularly those for the entry-level market.

The fact is the entry-level 2.5G EDGE and GPRS markets continue to have great potential in many regions of the world, particularly developing countries such as India and China.

Trend Number Six: Perfecting the Connected Lifestyle, Social Networking and Experiences, and the Digital Campfire

This year's 3GSM World Congress will have more of a touchy-feely aura compared with previous years, when the hard core technical topics have been more the main course meal.

The wireless industry is now talking up more than ever the experiential aspect of using a cell phone, how it enables not just an improved lifestyle but a perfected, nirvana-like lifestyle. Social networking with cell phones, and making possible digital campfire-like group settings using storage servers that work with cell phones, will generate more buzz at this show than ever before.

Trend Number Seven: Multimedia Driving Growth

Multimedia and its associated processing will continue to emerge as a key driver of cell phone semiconductor growth during the next several years, according to Flint Pulskamp, mobile semiconductor analyst with IDC Corporation. He defines multimedia in this context as using a cell phone for picture swapping, audio and video processing, web surfing, on-line gaming and mobile payment services among other applications.

The analyst reports that the cell phone chip market exceeded $36 billion last year driven largely by multimedia technologies in cell phones such as applications and media processors. These processors perform functions such as 2D/3D graphics, code/decodes, video and liquid crystal display controls.

Trend Number Eight: Internet on the Cell Phone Is For Real

For several years there has been talk and progress integrating Internet browsing capability on cell phones. But the size of the screen and the capabilities of the WAP browsers have been obstacles preventing this market from taking off. At this year's show, however, expect to find for the first time Internet-enabled cell phones with larger screens of higher resolution that are easier to read, supported by browsers that show websites as they are. A new technology announced in recent weeks called Yahoo! Go brings cell phone users search capabilities, local maps, city guides, email access, photo sharing, and other customizable content.

Trend Number Nine: Big Cell Phones Makers Unveil Products and Plans to Cope with Trend Toward Lower Priced Cell Phones

During the past several months major manufacturers of cell phones and chips that go in them announced lower revenues and profits than they had enjoyed in previous financial quarters. The main cause of this downturn is they are selling more lower-cost, lower-priced cell phones than higher-cost ones they charge higher prices for. So they're selling more products but at a lower price per unit. Demand is weakest for high-end cell phones.

Seek answers at the show about how these manufacturers are dealing with this pervasive problem. Don't be surprised if several of them introduce a few mid-to-high end cell phones with a full set of 3G multimedia features priced at attractive levels such as below $200. Word around the industry is that the prices of 3G phones have to come down substantially in order for demand for them to increase substantially.

Trend Number Ten: Standard Settings: Out With 3G, In With 4G

You will probably hear as much about whatever 4G is as you will about 3G at this event. Measured by hype, 3G has become a tired horse already even though it still hasn't been deployed in the real world on any kind of significant basis. By contrast, 4G has that new buzz smell and feel to it, the mystery and lack of clarity, uniformity and pseudo chaos this industry has fed on for decades.

About the Author

Roman Polz is the senior marketing manager of the Mobility division for Agere Systems. 

Based in Munich, Germany, Polz is responsible for 2.5G and 3G terminal specification consolidation and technology road mapping. 

Prior to his current role, Polz was responsible for global marketing of multimode wireless LAN products. Previously, Polz was senior manager for business development in the Networking and Entertainment division for EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa), supporting the European organization in developing the European consumer market. 

Polz has been with Agere Systems (formerly the Microelectronics Group of Lucent Technologies, and prior to this, AT&T) for over 15 years. During this time, he has worked in several product areas, including LAN, ASIC and telecommunications ICs, and was most recently responsible for the client applications team in EMEA. 

Polz holds a diploma in Communications Technology from the Fachhochschule München.

About Agere

Agere Systems is a global leader in semiconductors for storage, wireless data, and public and enterprise networks. The company's chips and software power a broad range of computing and communications applications, from cell phones, PCs, PDAs, hard disk drives and gaming devices to the world's most sophisticated wireless and wireline networks. Agere's customers include top manufacturers of consumer electronics, communications and computing equipment. Agere's products connect people to information and entertainment at home, at work and on the road-enabling the connected lifestyle.

  

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