Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Cisco: Total IP Traffic to Grow 3X from 2012 to 2017

Total global IP traffic will grow three-fold between 2012 and 2017, according to Cisco's newly released Visual Networking Index Forecast. 

Cisco is projecting that PC-originated traffic will grow at a 14% CAGR, while other devices/connections will have higher traffic growth rates over the forecast period ― TVs (24%), tablets (104%), smartphones (79%), and machine-to-machine (M2M) modules (82%).

Some highlights from the latest Cisco VNI:


Global IP Traffic Projections and Analysis
  • By 2017, annual global IP traffic will reach 1.4 zettabytes (23% CAGR from 2012 to 2017). – A zettabyte is equal to a sextillion bytes.
  • By 2017, more traffic will traverse global networks than all prior "Internet years" combined
    1984 – 2012: 1.2 zettabytes
    2017 Forecast: 1.4 zettabytes
  • "Busy hour" Internet traffic, (hours of the day during which traffic is highest), is increasing faster than average Internet traffic. Busy hour Internet traffic increased 41% in 2012, compared to 34% growth in average traffic.
  • Metro traffic will surpass long-haul traffic in 2014, and will account for 58% of total IP traffic by 2017. Metro traffic will grow nearly twice as fast as long-haul traffic from 2012 to 2017.
  • Content delivery networks (CDNs) will carry over half of total Internet traffic by 2017.
  • Wi-Fi and mobile-connected devices will generate 68% of Internet traffic by 2017.
  • Nearly half of total IP traffic will originate with non-PC devices (including tablets, smartphones, and televisions) by 2017.
Standout IP Networking Trends
  • Fixed/Wi-Fi traffic will grow at a CAGR of 26% between 2012 and 2017, compared to a 16% CAGR for fixed/wired traffic.
  • Globally, the average household had 4.7 devices / connections (including M2M) in 2012; the average household will have 7.1 devices / connections (including M2M) by 2017 (an 8.8% CAGR).
  • Globally, there will be 8 billion IPv6-capable fixed & mobile devices/connections in 2017, up from 1.6 billion in 2012 (38% CAGR).
  • Globally, 42% of all fixed & mobile networked devices/connections will be IPv6-capable in 2017, up from 14% in 2012.
Regional & Country IP Traffic Projections
  • Asia-Pacific (APAC) will generate the most IP traffic by 2017 (43.4 exabytes/month), maintaining its leadership from last year.
  • The Middle East and Africa will continue to be the fastest growing IP traffic region from 2012 – 2017 (5-fold growth, 38% CAGR over the forecast period); MEA was the fastest growing region last year as well (10-fold growth, 57% CAGR for the 2011 – 2016 forecast period) in this category.
  • By 2017, the highest traffic-generating countries will be the United States (37 exabytes per month) and China (18 exabytes per month).
  • For fastest growing IP traffic at the country-level, India will have the highest IP traffic growth rate with a 44% CAGR from 2012 – 2017. Second is Indonesia (42% CAGR) and third is South Africa (31% CAGR) over the forecast period.
Regional IP Traffic Growth Breakouts
  • APAC: 43.4 exabytes/month by 2017, 26% CAGR, 3-fold growth
  • North America: 40.7 exabytes/month by 2017, 26% CAGR, 3-fold growth
  • Western Europe: 24.3 exabytes/month 2017, 17% CAGR, 2-fold growth
  • Central Europe: 8.8 exabytes/month by 2017, 21% CAGR, 3-fold growth
  • Latin America: 7.4 exabytes/month by 2017, 17% CAGR, 2-fold growth
  • Middle East and Africa: 3.5 exabytes/month by 2017, 38% CAGR, 5-fold growth
Global Consumer Internet Video Consumption

  • Globally, there will be nearly 2 billion Internet video users (excluding mobile-only) by 2017, up from 1 billion Internet video users in 2012.
  • Internet video-to-TV traffic will increase nearly 5-fold between 2012 (1.3 exabytes per month) and 2017 (6.5 exabytes per month).
HD and 3D Internet Video Traffic
  • By 2017, 3D and HD Internet video will comprise 63% of consumer Internet video traffic.
  • Advanced consumer Internet video (3D and HD) will increase 4-fold between 2012 and 2017.
Global Consumer VoD Traffic                               
  • VoD traffic will increase 3-fold between 2012 and 2017.
Global Consumer Internet File Sharing Traffic

  • Peer-to-peer (P2P) traffic will decline at a CAGR of -9%, while web-based and other file sharing traffic will grow at CAGR of 17% from 2012 – 2017.
  • By 2017, global P2P traffic will be 65% of global consumer Internet file sharing traffic, down from 85% in 2012.
Global Business IP Traffic              
  • Overall business IP traffic, which includes Internet, backup, VoIP, etc., will nearly triple between 2012 and 2017.
  • In 2012, business IP traffic represented 20% of monthly total global IP traffic (consumer IP traffic represented 80% of monthly total global IP traffic).
  • By 2017, business IP traffic will represent 18% of monthly total global IP traffic (consumer IP traffic will represent 82% of monthly total global IP traffic).
Global Business Internet Video Traffic                
  • Business Internet video traffic will from 5.3-fold from 2012 to 2017.
  • Business Internet video traffic grew 52% in 2012.
  • Video will account for 58% of all business Internet traffic in 2017, up from 31% in 2012.

Last year's VNI


Cisco Forecasts 4X Global IP Traffic by 2016



By 2016, annual global IP traffic is forecast to be 1.3 zettabytes – (a zettabyte is equal to a sextillion bytes, or a trillion gigabytes), according to the newly issued Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2011-2016). For comparison, the total global IP traffic generated in 2011 was 369 exabytes. The additional traffic added in 2015-2016 alone is expected to be 330 exabytes, or an addition over that 12 month period nearly equal to the entire IP traffic volume last year.

Not surprisingly, Cisco finds the leading factors of growth to be:

More devices: Cisco predicts that by 2016 there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections ―- almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth -- for tablets, mobile phones, and other smart devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) devices. Cisco estimates there were 10.3 billion connections in 2011.

More Internet users: By 2016, there are expected to be 3.4 billion Internet users ― about 45 percent of the world's projected population according to United Nations estimates.

Faster broadband speeds: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase nearly fourfold, from 9 Mbps in 2011 to 34 Mbps in 2016.

More video: By 2016, 1.2 million video minutes―the equivalent of 833 days (or over two years) ―would travel the Internet every second.

Wi-Fi growth: By 2016, over half of the world's Internet traffic is expected to come from Wi-Fi connections.

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