Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Cisco Forecast: 4X Internet Traffic by 2014

Global Internet traffic will increase more than fourfold to 767 exabytes, or more than 3/4 of a Zettabyte, by 2014, according to the latest Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast issued by Cisco. This amount is 100 exabytes higher than the projected level in 2013, or an increase the equivalent of 10 times all the traffic traversing Internet Protocol networks in 2008.


Cisco said this growth in traffic will continue to be dominated by video, exceeding 91 percent of global consumer IP traffic by 2014 -- especially HDTV and 3DTV. By 2014, 3-D is forecast to comprise 4 percent of total consumer Internet video traffic, while HDTV will account for 38 percent. The total global audience for online video is expected to be over one billion by this date, and the sum of all forms of video (TV, VoD, Internet video, and peer-to-peer) will continue to exceed 91 percent of global consumer traffic.


Some other highlights:

  • Global file sharing traffic is projected to reach 11 exabytes per month in 2014, 22 percent CAGR from 2009-2014.


  • P2P will grow at a CAGR of 16 percent, while web-based and other file sharing will grow at CAGR of 47 percent from 2009-2014.


  • By 2014, global P2P traffic will be 17 percent of global consumer Internet traffic, down from 36 percent in 2009.


  • Global business IP Traffic is forecast to reach 7.7 exabytes per month in 2014, more than tripling from 2009-2014.


  • Business video conferencing is projected grow ten-fold over the forecast period, growing almost three times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 57 percent from 2009-2014.


  • Web-based video conferencing is the fastest growing sub-category, growing 180-fold from 2009-2014 (183 percent CAGR from 2009-2014).


  • Global mobile data traffic will increase 39 times from 2009 to 2014.


  • By 2014, annual global mobile data traffic will reach 3.5 exabytes per month (or a run rate of more than 42 exabytes annually).


  • Consumer IP traffic is projected to grow faster than business: For 2009, consumer IP traffic represented 79 percent of monthly total global IP traffic and business IP traffic was 21 percent of monthly total global IP traffic. By 2014, consumer IP traffic (web surfing, instant messaging, user-generated videos, etc.) will represent 87 percent of monthly total global IP traffic; while business IP traffic (email, voice, Internet, HD and web-based video conferencing, etc.) will represent 13 percent of monthly total global IP traffic.
http://newsroom.cisco.com/dlls/2010/prod_060210.html

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